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On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s Group

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

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Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 18 Mar 2017, 13:25:41

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Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 18 Mar 2017, 15:37:32

vtsnowedin wrote:https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mgfrpus1&f=a

why you even post stuff like that is beyond me? Besides a violation of the site COC . . . it merely shows an ever-increasing measure (40 million barrels) of a particular liquid, gasoline. Is your argument that gross production increases of liquids will continue forever? If so, that's deluded. An attempt to disprove ETP . . . then lame.

Your graph neglects fuel used to drill wells and truck/train Bakken tight shale. That is a net-loss of transport fuels. The economy ends. That's what counts. Your post is a violation, and a waste of time and carbon emissions.
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Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 18 Mar 2017, 16:24:02

pstarr wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mgfrpus1&f=a

why you even post stuff like that is beyond me? Besides a violation of the site COC . . . it merely shows an ever-increasing measure (40 million barrels) of a particular liquid, gasoline. Is your argument that gross production increases of liquids will continue forever? If so, that's deluded. An attempt to disprove ETP . . . then lame.

Your graph neglects fuel used to drill wells and truck/train Bakken tight shale. That is a net-loss of transport fuels. The economy ends. That's what counts. Your post is a violation, and a waste of time and carbon emissions.

Don't presume to lecture me on the COC. The link I posted is from a government source and is the truth that refutes the lies posted above it. It speaks for itself and your opinion on the matter does not matter to anybody with a brain.
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Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 21 Mar 2017, 10:51:10

"Don't presume to lecture me on the COC. The link I posted is from a government source and is the truth that refutes the lies posted above it."

Now how exactly does it refute anything? "Lies posted above"; pot calling kettle black.
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Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 22 Mar 2017, 13:55:15

Here is a recent email that we received from Cathal Haughian that we thought to share with you. Her research is very interesting.

"Mr Hill,
This data seems to chime in perfectly with your 3% decline in refinery yields per year. Any thoughts?
"Now you’re wondering why the roads aren’t all empty  When the refiners realized they were going out of business they sold parts of their retail networks which explains the sharp drop offs in some states. So when we add in bulk sales for the purpose of resale the picture is not so cataclysmic. After crunching the numbers for all grades and formulations—for sales to end users and sales for the purpose of resale—between Jun 2006 and Jun 2016: The total decrease is 16.65%.
That’s a 1.65% decrease in sales per year, minimum. But here’s the killer—refinery receipts of crude oil keeps increasing. In 2009 they received 5,261,068 thousand barrels whereas the 2015 figure was 6,004,798 barrels. That’s an increase of 1.63% in inputs per year and a decrease in sales of 1.65%. Let’s call this The Crude Oil Crunch."
http://www.beforethecollapse.com/2017/0 ... me-states/"


http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
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Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby Babydoomer » Thu 23 Mar 2017, 02:44:26

What happened to the graph you posted Short?
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Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 23 Mar 2017, 13:06:51

"What happened to the graph you posted Short?"

Well, that's an interesting question, isn't it! Maybe we didn't clear it with the Ministry of Truth before publication? There is a whole lot of facts that we can suppose you aren't supposed to see. You might find them depressing, and that would be bad for BAU. There are a whole lot of people who feel that the only reason for you to have a brain is so they can put what they want you to have in it.

PS our web host was also attacked again, and the host doesn't seem to be in any hurry to fix it. Looks like we will be setting up our own server; three times is a charm. Like I said two years ago the first thing to be lost at the end of the oil age will be access to information. The bread and circuses are in full swing, but the bread is getting stall. Copy anything that you might want to save for later reference; it may not be there tomorrow.
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Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby Tuike » Thu 23 Mar 2017, 13:24:26

Here is one missing graph:
post1352898.html#p1352898
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Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby Cog » Sun 26 Mar 2017, 21:15:27

Isn't predicting the doom of a doomer site sort of like dividing by zero?
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Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby donstewart » Mon 27 Mar 2017, 08:27:18

@ all doomers
The ETP model remains the best explanation I see for what we can observe in the current events in the world. For example, consider this article on the collapse in the credit markets:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201 ... -disaster/

Or consider Gail Tverberg's article talking about the simultaneous decline in all fossil fuels:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/2016/06/20/c ... s-problem/

(The Tverberg article is a reprint on Alice Friedemann's site from about 9 months ago.)

What Ambrose Evans-Pritchard and Gail are doing is putting together a bunch of random observations. E.g.:
*more debt is no longer producing more GDP growth
*incomes are not rising
*banks no longer perceive that making more loans is a good idea
What is missing is some overall explanation for why these random events are happening. Gail hints that depletion may be a problem, but she is allergic to a thermodynamic explanation. It is the underlying logic of the thermodynamic explanation that keeps me coming back to the ETP model.

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Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 27 Mar 2017, 08:46:28

donstewart wrote:@ all doomers
The ETP model remains the best explanation I see for what we can observe in the current events in the world.


Then you really aren't looking very hard. Or at all.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby donstewart » Mon 27 Mar 2017, 10:35:30

@Adam B
I think about alternatives a lot. For example, Chuck Marohn's article today in Resilience.org has this statement:

'America needs its neighborhoods to generate enough excess wealth to make sustaining basic infrastructure financially feasible. This is not the case for most places today. That urgently must change.'

Marohn's argument is very similar to the ETP model. That is, linear thinking is not going to get us out of our predicament. Simply expanding highways to allow more development is not solving the profitability problems.

If you read Marohn's article, you find that he is in favor of fast and efficient movement between centers of production, with slow movement on streets. Whether you agree with him or not is up to you...but you have to admit that there is more than a passing resemblance to the kind of thermodynamic thinking involved in the ETP model...and in the Constructal Law of Adrian Bejan.

So the question becomes 'Could faster and more efficient nodal transportation networks solve our problems?' And here is where the ETP model poses a fundamental challenge, in my opinion. The ETP model states that the basic thermodynamic rationale for producing and using petroleum and its products is reaching an end. More efficient use of oil by end users cannot solve the problem.

What more efficient use of oil by end users MIGHT do is extend the Oil Age for a little while as we use what remains more efficiently. But the ETP model states that the Oil Age is now as doomed as the West Antarctic glaciers.

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Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby zleo99 » Mon 27 Mar 2017, 11:19:10

Where has the Etp Q&A Part 10 gone?
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Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 27 Mar 2017, 11:25:23

zleo99 wrote:Where has the Etp Q&A Part 10 gone?


current-events-f7.html
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 27 Mar 2017, 11:41:13

Tanada wrote:
zleo99 wrote:Where has the Etp Q&A Part 10 gone?


current-events-f7.html

That makes sense, as other retired peak-oil threads are also in the current events section such as "Weekly Petroleum Supply Reports 2014' and 'Refinery News'

But on the other hand . . . ETP shares valuable real estate with "Fake Blond News" and "Chuck Berry RIP 3-18-2017" lol
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Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 27 Mar 2017, 11:45:21

pstarr wrote:
Tanada wrote:
zleo99 wrote:Where has the Etp Q&A Part 10 gone?


current-events-f7.html

That makes sense, as other retired peak-oil threads are also in the current events section such as "Weekly Petroleum Supply Reports 2014' and 'Refinery News'

But on the other hand . . . ETP shares valuable real estate with "Fake Blond News" and "Chuck Berry RIP 3-18-2017" lol

And "It's All About the Skittles "
“"If you think the economy is more important than the environment, try holding your breath while counting your money"”
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Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 27 Mar 2017, 11:47:53

That's no joke either onlooker. :( Sometimes I think this place is all about skittles lol
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Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby Cog » Mon 27 Mar 2017, 13:57:01

Too bad we don't have a conspiracy theories sub-forum to put it in.
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Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby Observerbrb » Mon 27 Mar 2017, 14:02:10

Cog wrote:Too bad we don't have a conspiracy theories sub-forum to put it in.


Meanwhile, oil is back to 47 $.

You can silence some people, but you can't silence the truth!!

Looking forward to the new blog that shortonoil is going to open.
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Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby creedoninmo » Mon 27 Mar 2017, 15:00:56

The ETP model remains the best explanation I see for what we can observe in the current events in the world. For example, consider this article on the collapse in the credit markets:
I agree Don, throwing out bits of econ 101 here and econ 101 there doesn't get it for me.
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