Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s Group

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Moderator: Pops

Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 28 Feb 2017, 15:44:12

vtsnowedin wrote:Show us one of these engines that burns WTI just as it comes out of the ground if you would please. The Saudis burn some of their crude directly to turn steam turbines but they are the only ones using raw crude that way..
The total energy cost is measured in BTUs and Governments ,military and coffee are measured in dollars which are subject to inflation. Your mixing apples with oranges yet again. The labor cost of installing a length of well casing steel pipe varies greatly depending on where the well is. The energy cost of making the steel in that pipe is constant and has to be divided by all the barrels of oil that flow through that pipe.


To be fair back when WTI was what came out of the ground in West Texas as the name implies many pump jacks were powered by hot bulb engines burning a small fraction of the crude exactly as it was when it came out of the ground. Hot Bulb engines are extremely reliable, once they are running at idle speed they will keep on chugging for months or even years so long as the fuel is kept flowing and the lubrication system gets topped off every few days to keep everything lubricated. That is why these engines are still loved in some low tech countries, even though they are roughly half as efficient as a Diesel engine because their compression ratio is very low.

It takes roughly 5-10 minutes of heat8ing to get the bulb hot enough, but once running the heat of the combustion keeps it hot and these engines just putter along forever. https://youtu.be/Y-RVZdz-TBA?t=5m57s
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 13383
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby Yoshua » Tue 28 Feb 2017, 16:27:32

"China coal consumption declines for third straight year
China is increasing the use of solar and wind energy production while coal consumption has fallen again. It 'reinforces China's growing status as a global climate leader' according to Greenpeace."

What a joke! China produces half of the global coal production. Chinas coal production peaked in 2013 and is today forced to import coal to keep the wheels rolling.
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 417
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 28 Feb 2017, 16:40:59

Yoshua wrote:"China coal consumption declines for third straight year
China is increasing the use of solar and wind energy production while coal consumption has fallen again. It 'reinforces China's growing status as a global climate leader' according to Greenpeace."

What a joke! China produces half of the global coal production. Chinas coal production peaked in 2013 and is today forced to import coal to keep the wheels rolling.

It's worse than that Y. China Says It's Going to Use More Coal, With Capacity Set to Grow 19%
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -year-plan
“For a moment they saw the nations of the dead, and, before they joined them, scraps of the untainted sky." -- E.M. Forster
User avatar
onlooker
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6371
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 28 Feb 2017, 17:08:25

We have received a number of phone calls as to why this apparent debunking of the Etp Model is taking place. It appears that this is all part of a very complex con job to defraud the Irish Ministry of Transportation out of $6 million. Those monies were to be earmarked for a devise that does not exist, and never did. The Etp Model was being used as part of the justification for the Ministry to finance construction of the imaginary devise. The perpetrators then attempted to rescind their request for the illicit monies as the scheme came to light by claiming that the Model had been shown to be invalid. The online debunkers where hired to add credibility to that claim.

We severed all ties with the parties involved months ago as it became apparent that their overtures to the Hills Group where fabrications. If anyone has additional information please contact us.

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
User avatar
shortonoil
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4244
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 28 Feb 2017, 19:13:23

Yup, for sure, it has nothing to do with the imaginary numbers used in the model, renowned Peak Oil advocates like Ugo Bardi have been recruited by some dasterdly fraudsters to shift the blame to the poor innocent Hills group.

That story and five bucks will get you a coffee at Starbucks.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
User avatar
Subjectivist
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3766
Joined: Sat 28 Aug 2010, 06:38:26
Location: Northwest Ohio

Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 28 Feb 2017, 19:51:43

Tanada wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:Show us one of these engines that burns WTI just as it comes out of the ground if you would please. The Saudis burn some of their crude directly to turn steam turbines but they are the only ones using raw crude that way..
The total energy cost is measured in BTUs and Governments ,military and coffee are measured in dollars which are subject to inflation. Your mixing apples with oranges yet again. The labor cost of installing a length of well casing steel pipe varies greatly depending on where the well is. The energy cost of making the steel in that pipe is constant and has to be divided by all the barrels of oil that flow through that pipe.


To be fair back when WTI was what came out of the ground in West Texas as the name implies many pump jacks were powered by hot bulb engines burning a small fraction of the crude exactly as it was when it came out of the ground. Hot Bulb engines are extremely reliable, once they are running at idle speed they will keep on chugging for months or even years so long as the fuel is kept flowing and the lubrication system gets topped off every few days to keep everything lubricated. That is why these engines are still loved in some low tech countries, even though they are roughly half as efficient as a Diesel engine because their compression ratio is very low.

It takes roughly 5-10 minutes of heat8ing to get the bulb hot enough, but once running the heat of the combustion keeps it hot and these engines just putter along forever. https://youtu.be/Y-RVZdz-TBA?t=5m57s
I stand corrected. :oops:
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7033
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 28 Feb 2017, 22:03:37

Yoshua wrote:Crude oil engine

http://powerplants.man.eu/fuels/crude-oil


Cool! Never seen one on a pumpjack in 30+ years, but then, knowing how the oil field works has nothing to do with the hill group report anyway.

Yoshua wrote:If you chose to produce electricity with the crude oil engine, then that's fine. Most new diesel engines can run on crude as well.


What? You mount a 10-80HP electric motor on the mounting plate of the pumpjack, run a V-belt from there to the input shaft, set the timer to keep the well pumped off and you are done. No one chooses to do it your way that I have ever heard of or seen.

Yoshua wrote:But never mind, I'm just a civilian, a chef by profession.


No problem. The Hill group report and this etp stuff is designed to look good, to pull in folks who don't have the experience to understand the crock they are being sold. The bell shaped curve did the same thing for years, but we all learn at our own speeds, and with some critical thinking and paying attention to the folks who have been doing these things for decades, anyone can figure out a spurious relationship from a real one, good ideas from bad, etc etc.
AdamB
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1549
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 28 Feb 2017, 22:12:16

Tanada wrote:It takes roughly 5-10 minutes of heat8ing to get the bulb hot enough, but once running the heat of the combustion keeps it hot and these engines just putter along forever. https://youtu.be/Y-RVZdz-TBA?t=5m57s


Puttering along forever wears out the pumps when your pump capacity (stroke volume X strokes/minute) is higher than the wells productive capability. Workovers are expensive. So you use a timer to minimize pumping dry. Or you can rig an activation timer and let a murphy switch turn off the motor when the well has pumped off.

No one likes to do unnecessary workovers because an idiot field hand couldn't be bothered to figure out his pump times.
AdamB
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1549
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby Cog » Wed 01 Mar 2017, 06:40:29

Conspiracies, Ireland, and paid shills. ETP proponents combine the best of internet pure gold comedy. Its approaching 911 Truther levels of hilarity. Seriously thanks for the laughs.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7761
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 02 Mar 2017, 03:17:59

The oil is there and technically it can be recovered. The question now is if it can be recovered economically. They estimated that the US has some 660 billion barrels of conventional crude oil that is technically recoverable with today's technology.

Since petroleum is an energy recourse, the economic value of that recourse if a function of its energy value.

I understand that some very smart people are working day and night to find a way to produce that oil economically.

A global Co2 tax ? The money could be used to capture Co2 and build the infrastructure to inject the Co2 into the oil fields for enhanced oil recovery. Once the infrastructure is in place the cost to produce the oil would fall. Well... they have already thought of that. Everybody is afraid of global warming today and would gladly pay a Co2 tax to save mother earth.

My two cents: Enhanced oil recovery through injecting steam into the oil reservoir. Has anyone thought of using the planets magma as a heat recourse to produce steam that could be injected into the oil reservoirs' ? I don't know how efficient thermal power is and how deep one would have drill to reach the boiling point of water, but the technology is already there.
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 417
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 02 Mar 2017, 04:03:55

pstarr wrote:AdamB, you are always talking about Monte. Who is Monte? A dear friend? An ex-boyfriend? Why your obsession?

Anyway, just to bring things home. This thread is about the ETP model, a measure of the petroleum used-up getting more petroleum. Lots of oil (petroleum) is burned up when the oil companies drill, deliver and refine the oil. ETP measures how much is left for the consumer. It's a nice model.

An crucial implication of this ETP model is that when the oil-production system requires all the oil . . . when there is no oil left to drive around or do anything then people can't buy the oil. The oil companies have no more money to spend. No more oil. Seems reasonable. Any one have nice productive questions? Or objections?

Once again, I object.

When the economy, which (so far) runs largely on hydrocarbons, gets more energy efficient and needs less energy per dollar of GDP every year -- and has for decades, claiming that there is any near term danger that "all the oil" will be needed just to extract oil, with none left over is nonsensical on its face.

On top of that the globe is in an oil glut due to efficient production which is so extreme that it has forced the shutdown of a lot of the production until prices rise enough to make the more difficult oil worth producing.

...

I don't know what a "nice" theory is. A girl or a tree or a house cat can be nice. A theory either works well (given the data and what happens in the real world) or it doesn't. A better adjective for the ETP theory, based on what is actually happening in the oil production and consumption world, would be "nonsensical".

Finally, the more time that passes, the more efficiently non-oil energy can be used to replace oil to extract oil in the highly unlikely event that actually becomes a problem. So, for example, green electricity could be used. But of course when that electricity supplants the bulk of oil burned for transportation, as it surely will in time, then it becomes a moot point.

If enough time passes before that happens, AGW could be a truly huge problem. Inability to economically extract the needed oil, not so much.
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 3205
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 02 Mar 2017, 06:23:27

Off topic posts were moved, this thread is primarily about the analysis of the ETP model by those who find faults with its math, not another rah rah thread about covering up all those issues.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 13383
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby marmico » Tue 07 Mar 2017, 12:38:20

http://peakoil.com/geology/thermodynamic-model-of-oil-depletion-sparks-controversy

Of course, the think tanker, François-Xavier Chevallerau, is not aware, because he does not read peakoil.com, that the ETP manuscript has been withdrawn from or rejected by the Royal Society Open Science publication. Only Bozo Bunsen Burner Bedford's thermodynamic tweetie bird knows for sure.
marmico
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 294
Joined: Mon 28 Jul 2014, 13:46:35

Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 08 Mar 2017, 12:55:36

marmico wrote:http://peakoil.com/geology/thermodynamic-model-of-oil-depletion-sparks-controversy

Of course, the think tanker, François-Xavier Chevallerau, is not aware, because he does not read peakoil.com, that the ETP manuscript has been withdrawn from or rejected by the Royal Society Open Science publication. Only Bozo Bunsen Burner Bedford's thermodynamic tweetie bird knows for sure.


Could have guessed that. I'm not the only one with experience in ferreting out spurious relationships and the nonsense used to generate them, and it took 10 minutes and maybe 3 questions to figure out the etp stuff.
AdamB
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1549
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Wed 08 Mar 2017, 17:25:29

Ten minutes and three questions?
Adam ... you must be slipping.
coffeeguyzz
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 79
Joined: Mon 27 Oct 2014, 15:09:47

Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby BahamasEd » Wed 08 Mar 2017, 19:48:58

Tanada wrote:
Off topic posts were moved, this thread is primarily about the analysis of the ETP model by those who find faults with its math, not another rah rah thread about covering up all those issues.


Ok, so I went back over this thread and I can't find anyone that is using MATH to find faults with the ETP model.

Maybe I missed something?
BahamasEd
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 86
Joined: Sun 17 Jul 2016, 19:44:57

Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 08 Mar 2017, 21:29:05

Ok, so I went back over this thread and I can't find anyone that is using MATH to find faults with the ETP model.

read the article linked to in the very first post. The argument is the algorithms used are incorrect or incomplete.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4964
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 16 Mar 2017, 02:08:39

The etp model seems to be dead. So what do we discuss now ? How to grow tulips ?
Yoshua
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 417
Joined: Sat 28 May 2016, 05:45:42

Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby Barrabas » Thu 16 Mar 2017, 06:35:07

Yoshua wrote:The etp model seems to be dead. So what do we discuss now ? How to grow tulips ?


It's not dead, it just will be discussed elsewhere.

@Tanada: What a ***** and ******* way to handle things.

Edit: I just saw your whining about BW Hill ***** ****** ****** ************* ********** ******************* ********** ******* ******** ******** ******** *********** *************** ***** *********** ***************** ******** ************ ****** ********* *******
Last edited by Tanada on Thu 16 Mar 2017, 10:09:11, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Removed inappropriate content in violation of COC
Barrabas
permanently banned
 
Posts: 20
Joined: Sat 08 Oct 2016, 07:42:03

Re: On The Thermodynamic Model of Oil Extraction by Hill’s G

Unread postby Cog » Thu 16 Mar 2017, 07:19:38

Its right in the Code of Conduct for this board. You can't advertise a website without compensation to Peakoil.com.

3.1.7 Unsolicited advertisements: This includes offering goods, services, employment (except within the Jobs forum), or soliciting donations. This also includes advertising for a website. If you have something to sell, please contact an administrator and buy a banner.

Shorty knows about this rule and has consistently violated it. Tanada is spot on.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7761
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

PreviousNext

Return to Peak oil studies, reports & models

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests