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Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 06 Sep 2016, 11:38:36

kublikhan wrote:
SumYunGai wrote:There are no stats like the ones you are asking for. And I did not say that the oil industry was the only source of demand increase. Just most of it.
But there are stats. And they show your statement is factually incorrect.


Kublikhan--Great job debunking the unsubstantiated claims of SumYunGai.

Some of Sum's sums just don't add up. :lol:
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby Observerbrb » Tue 06 Sep 2016, 13:34:45

You are debating over things that shortonoil never stated. He always talk about the PPS and all that is needed to keep it working (Roads, highways, harbours, drilling rigs, military, education and healthcare of oil workers, pipe streams, refineries, ships and so on).
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 06 Sep 2016, 13:53:52

He always talk about the PPS and all that is needed to keep it working (Roads, highways, harbours, drilling rigs, military, education and healthcare of oil workers, pipe streams, refineries, ships and so on).


and the point is that with rig count, drilling and completions at an all time low there is less need for all of that, not more. Producing facilities that are being run under a view to cut costs which is currently the industry mantra require very little in the way of oil in any of its forms. Not sure how much oil is burned up through education or healthcare of oil workers (my guess is almost zero) but lets ask Rockman who is "closest to the sandface" on that one.

But lets not let reality get in the way of an attractive model :roll:
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby SumYunGai » Tue 06 Sep 2016, 14:05:39

kublikhan wrote:
SumYunGai wrote:There are no stats like the ones you are asking for. And I did not say that the oil industry was the only source of demand increase. Just most of it.

But there are stats. And they show your statement is factually incorrect.

No, they don't. Stats can sometimes be misleading.

kublikhan wrote:First off, "most of it" is not even suited for oil production as it is not diesel.

I am saying that most of the recent demand increase was from the oil industry, and you are saying that most of the oil produced does not make diesel. 8O That is a total non sequitur. You are comparing apples and oranges by using the phrase "most of it" to mean something very different than I meant. The rest of your post makes the most of this shark jump. Then you end with an absurdity:

kublikhan wrote:The US produced 8,653,000 bpd of oil in 2014. Let's just look at the increase in oil from 2009. Which was a 3,303,000 bpd increase. So the US oil industry consumed an extra 87,683 bpd of diesel to produce an extra 3,303,000 bpd of oil. That means of that oil production increase from 2009-2014, only 2.7% was consumed by oil companies. If you use the overall figures for 2014 only their share is an even lower 1.6%.

1.6%? So you are claiming that the ERoEI of US oil production is 62.5:1? That cannot be possibly true.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 06 Sep 2016, 14:15:24

SumYunGai wrote:Stats can sometimes be misleading.


Translation = if I don't like the stats, claim they are "misleading".

SumYunGai wrote:You are comparing apples and oranges by using the phrase "most of it" to mean something very different than I meant


Image

kublikhan wrote:So you are claiming that the ERoEI of US oil production is 62.5:1? That cannot be possibly true.


Maybe not, but it's not nearly as terrible as peakers would like it to be, and that's what counts.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 06 Sep 2016, 14:20:44

SumYunGai wrote:
ennui2 wrote:
SumYunGai wrote:There are no stats like the ones you are asking for. And I did not say that the oil industry was the only source of demand increase. Just most of it.

If there are no stats then you can't say how much demand is coming from the oil industry, all or none.

BWHill calculates it from the Etp model. If stats were available for this, there would be no need for an Etp model.


There is no need for the Etp model. Never was, isn't now, never will be. There isn't even a model, really, and your psycho babble on the topic doesn't count as that hardly.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 06 Sep 2016, 14:29:29

Declining production from conventional oil resources has initiated a global transition to unconventional oil, such as tar sands. Unconventional oil is generally harder to extract than conventional oil and is expected to have a (much) lower energy return on (energy) investment (EROI).
The following points seem clear from a review of the literature: (i) the EROI of global oil production is roughly 17 and declining, while that for the USA is 11 and declining; (ii) the EROI of ultra-deep- water oil and oil sands is below 10;
Here is link http://energyskeptic.com/2015/implicati ... roduction/
Anyone doubt credentials of the author Mr. Murphy here is this
http://www.niu.edu/geog/directory/david ... arch.shtml
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 06 Sep 2016, 14:32:06

Producing facilities that are being run under a view to cut costs which is currently the industry mantra require very little in the way of oil in any of its forms.


In other words, going out of business.

Lets see, ...

Shale Scam: Check
Worthless 1 trillon $ "Stealth" F-35 Flop: Check
About 12 B-2 "Stealth" Bombers that dont scare anyone: Check
Nuclear Reactor JunkoRama Armchair Engineer Startups: Check
"Renewables" Scam: Check
Department of NO Energy: Check

There you go, game over: JUNK CURRENCY.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 06 Sep 2016, 14:44:29

"The etpers underestimate this mining of the ocean seabed with automated vehicles to get GAS. BW Hill doesn't even recognize natural gas at all."

We don't take into consideration Santa Clause, and Fairies either! Methane hydrate has been a dream for over 50 years, and there still is not one operating production platform working. It is a lot like fusion, "just hand us a few more $billion and we promise in 10 years there will be fusion". Which is what they have been saying every 10 years for the past 40. I think most people are getting pretty tired of that story line. Human credulity can only be stretched so far! Even a dog is smart enough to eventually figure out that it is being bullshitted. Some dogs are apparently smarter than some people!

Natural Gas is not considered because it is a "gas", and 99% of the mobile power system on this planet run on liquid hydrocarbons. Methane (CH4) is a very low energy density fuel. It is difficult, and costly to handle, and does not work very well as a major source of energy away from the pipe line systems that supply it. It is totally a question of energy delivery capability, and the cost is a function of that capability. It is not the other way around.
It would take an additional 200 trillion cubic feet of NG to replace the oil now being used. That is 2.3 times the total present world production; not taking into consideration that NG delivers 14% less useable energy per gross BTU than oil. If there were even the slightest possibility that NG could replace enough of the energy being lost from petroleum to keep our civilization from collapsing we would take a serious look at it. There isn't. No one is going to be stumbling across an extra 400 trillion cubic feet of NG per year in the near future.

NG and methane hydrates are pipe dreams, just ask any old dog.

As far as the price of crude is concerned the Etp Model tracked the price between 1960 and 2012 with an average margin of error of 4.4%. A track record that is orders of magnitude better than any other estimates that have been provided.

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_007.htm

That 54 year trend broke in 2012 as the result of the system reaching a thermodynamic tipping point. We anticipated it happening from the energy equations, and put up this page in September of 2014:

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm

Once it is realized that petroleum production is an energy production process, and not an exercise in filling up containers with black goo it all becomes readily obvious. But, some old dog is likely to figure that out before some people?

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 06 Sep 2016, 14:45:40

onlooker wrote:Declining production from conventional oil resources has initiated a global transition to unconventional oil, such as tar sands. Unconventional oil is generally harder to extract than conventional oil and is expected to have a (much) lower energy return on (energy) investment (EROI).
The following points seem clear from a review of the literature: (i) the EROI of global oil production is roughly 17 and declining, while that for the USA is 11 and declining; (ii) the EROI of ultra-deep- water oil and oil sands is below 10;
Here is link http://energyskeptic.com/2015/implicati ... roduction/
Anyone doubt credentials of the author Mr. Murphy here is this
http://www.niu.edu/geog/directory/david ... arch.shtml


onlooker, what you just presented is a pipedream. Its over. The currency is worthless JUNK and the economy you allude to no longer exists.

The ones who automate FIRST will get the most profit, then as the economy shrinks further and more places automate, they're competing for a smaller pie.

Imagine TV's start at $50,000, the 1% buy them, robots make them, production costs are minimal. All profits go to the owner. (a 1%er who owns the capital/robots)

The elite will just be swapping money around themselves, with technicians and engineers pecking scraps. While the rest of us are kept on life support by government assistance.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 06 Sep 2016, 14:47:43

shortonoil wrote:Natural Gas is not considered because it is a "gas", and 99% of the mobile power system on this planet run on liquid hydrocarbons. Methane (CH4) is a very low energy density fuel. It is difficult, and costly to handle, and does not work very well as a major source of energy away from the pipe line systems that supply it. It is totally a question of energy delivery capability, and the cost is a function of that capability. It is not the other way around.


WTF are you talking about? Natural gas is fast replacing coal for power plants. Keeping the lights on is critical to maintaining BAU. It's also often used for home-heating, keeping people from freezing in the winter. And you just casually discount its value to civilization?????????????????????
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 06 Sep 2016, 14:52:35

"There is no need for the Etp model. Never was, isn't now, never will be. There isn't even a model, really, and your psycho babble on the topic doesn't count as that hardly."

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/petrohg10.pdf

"When things get bad enough you have to lie." What a complete useless waste of good air you are. You have the qualifications of the scummiest politicians out there!
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby SumYunGai » Tue 06 Sep 2016, 15:19:08

ennui2 wrote:
SumYunGai wrote:Stats can sometimes be misleading.

Translation = if I don't like the stats, claim they are "misleading".

Have you ever heard the old expression: "There are lies, damned lies, and statistics"?

ennui2 wrote:
SumYunGai to kublikhan wrote:So you are claiming that the ERoEI of US oil production is 62.5:1? That cannot be possibly true.

Maybe not, but it's not nearly as terrible as peakers would like it to be, and that's what counts.

Kublikhan's stats lead to an absurd conclusion, that's what counts.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 06 Sep 2016, 15:22:56

SumYunGai wrote:There are lies, damned lies, and statistics?


That doesn't give you a license to manufacture them out of thin air. There's no way to apply any sort of methodology to this if people just fall back on hunches and superstition.

ennui2 wrote:Kublikhan's stats lead to an absurd conclusion, that's what counts.


You can't go from that to shale being negative EROEI, though. The reasonable conclusion is that shale is firmly positive EROEI.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby Observerbrb » Tue 06 Sep 2016, 15:25:26

Saudi Arabia is implementing very heavy austerity measures:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... f-projects
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 06 Sep 2016, 15:54:48

onlooker, what you just presented is a pipedream. Its over. The currency is worthless JUNK and the economy you allude to no longer exists.--You're right Lion and how much more absurd are the denies looking when they cannot even accept the straight forward non controversial info I just linked Ever since Nixon got us off the gold standard we have been living in a world of delusions and scams
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 06 Sep 2016, 16:10:18

Ever since Nixon got us off the gold standard we have been living in a world of delusions and scams


If a tree falls in the forest and nobody's around, does it make a sound?

In other words, if someone goes through his entire life reasonably content, happy, prosperous, who the F cares whether the dollar is on the gold standard or not?

In order to make it matter to anyone you have to prove that there's an existential risk. Making an observation that we've been living in a dreamworld for over 40 years doesn't sound like an impending risk to me.

I think some of the loudest voices about this or that being a scam are those who are, how shall we say it, not too successful in life, and looking for a way to vent their frustration?
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 06 Sep 2016, 16:20:30

What I mean by my statement Ennui, is that we decoupled from any sense of control or deference to resources and true value. We basically gave ourselves permission to splurge. So yes, we have been living the good life but at the expense of the viability of the Biosphere and the future. At some point the bills come due and what Starving refers to is the denouement of what sort of began during the time of Nixon and even before after WWII, that is an Economy which is running on pure perception without any true tangible and sustainable basis for its manner of functioning. At some point the whole ponzi scheme of mass delusion will end as people especially those most in denial realize you cannot get something with and for nothing. So, I am with Starving his version of reality sounds much more realistic than yours Ennui.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 06 Sep 2016, 16:24:39

"At some point"

Therein lies the debate.

Image

It is an eschatology. Things do not collapse just because of a perceived wrongness (note how loaded the term Ponzi is). They collapse when they're good and ready. So unfurling a laundry list of grievances is meaningless. Prove the end is nigh.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 06 Sep 2016, 16:30:42

ennui2 wrote:"At some point"

Therein lies the debate.

It is an eschatology. Things do not collapse just because of a perceived wrongness (note how loaded the term Ponzi is). They collapse when they're good and ready. So unfurling a laundry list of grievances is meaningless. Prove the end is nigh.

I see Ennui, what you want is clear and present danger. Well I will not be predicting time lines but will say that actually the greatest danger and perhaps the soonest may come from the situation in the Arctic with the methane escaping and the sea ice disappearing. That is why I love this site we discuss multidisciplinary matters. :twisted:
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