[SumYunGai]

The thing that made complete sense to me from the beginning was that civilization was headed for a rapid collapse.
For me, the Etp model just gives the most exact way to time it.

There you go. You start with a conclusion and then reach for any cockamamie theory that supports it.

What was it that made you feel that rapid collapse coming on? A tingling in your toes? A buzzing in your ears?

First principles and basic logic. I have long believed that civilization was ultimately headed for a relatively near term rapid collapse. As soon as I first realized this, way back in 2005, I began to carefully chronicle civilization's gradual progression toward inevitable collapse. I didn't jump the gun like you did only to have your supposed embarrassment boomerang you into a cynical, hard core denier. My approach has been much more methodical. By the time the oil price began to plunge in June of 2014, I knew we must be getting pretty close to collapse. Then the Etp model came along and confirmed my basic belief.

[kublikhan]

As I have said previously I don't track minutiae. The long-term pattern for oil consumption in the major non-producing regions (most of Europe) has been down down down since the Great Oil-Depression of 2008. So the one good year you mention does not make a trend. Observerbrb and SumYunGai have explained what is happening in the producing nations. It is not good.

Rockdoc already counter that argument. The real long term decline in Europe has been going on since 1978. Are you trying to argue their economies have been imploding for the past 4 decades?

The Etp model accounts for the rise in demand. It is coming mostly from the oil industry itself!

False. Do you guys even bother to fact check anything you write? The oil consumption by industry, including oil production, has been declinging, not rising:

World Oil Energy Consumption by Sector, 1973-2013

Industry went from 19.9% of oil's consumption in 1973 to 8.4% in 2013. Transportation meanwhile went from 45.4% of oil consumption to 63.8% of oil consumption. It is transportation that is driving oil demand, not oil production:

China's ongoing macroeconomic reforms are heralding a structural change in its oil product consumption mix with sluggish gasoil demand compensated by gasoline, which has become the main driver of overall oil demand growth in the country. Demand for gasoline has surged nearly 59% over the same five-year period, and the transport fuel's share in overall demand rose from 16.2% in 2008 to 19.1% last year. Similarly jet fuel/kerosene apparent demand also expanded by 58.4% over the 2008-2013 period, while its share of overall demand rose from 3.7% in 2008 to 4.3% last year.

Economic Rebalancing
The current shift in fuel mix is driven mostly by a rebalancing in China's economy. Government policy to move away from an export-oriented economy and the closure of large production capacity in energy-intensive sectors such as mining have led to demand destruction for gasoil, while gasoline growth has soared on the back of surging vehicle ownership. "There has been a significant decline in diesel usage in the industrial sector in China over the course of the last few years, and this definitely accelerated over the last two and a bit years," In 2002, industrial consumption made up about 20% of gasoil demand in China but this halved to around 10% a decade later. "From the perspective of oil product demand growth, the main driver has now shifted from gasoil to gasoline."

Boom in gasoline demand to continue
A move towards a consumption-led economy has raised vehicle ownership in China in the last few years and this will continue in the longer term. "Gasoline demand going forward will be driven by increasing penetration of motor vehicles, particularly in central and western China."

Gasoline replaces gasoil as China's driver of oil demand growth

Increasing Demand for Gasoline Offsets Waning Diesel Use. Rising incomes in China are offsetting the impact of its industrial deceleration and propping up global oil prices.

China is using more gasoline, which is making up for its declining demand for diesel used in industry and the trucking sector. The increase is being driven by a growing consumer class with higher disposable incomes, which is translating into more car ownership. That, in turn, has helped underpin Chinese oil demand and has kept the country on track to overtake the U.S. this year and become the No. 1 oil importer.

In the three years from 2012 until end-2014, China's diesel consumption will grow by only 0.67%, compared with a 12.5% rise in gasoline use. China's auto sales, meanwhile, are on a roll, with 6.48 million cars added to the passenger fleet in the first four months of this year, up 10% from a year earlier.

Cars Drive China's Oil Demand as Industry Slows

"India is taking over from China as the main growth market for oil." Gasoline demand has been accelerating, with consumption up 11 percent in 2014/15 and more than 14 percent in 2015/16. Growing gasoline demand is directly linked to the explosion in vehicle ownership among the country's rapidly expanding middle and lower-middle class. The number of registered vehicles on India's roads has been doubling every seven years and hit 182 million in 2013. There is enormous potential for a further increase in both vehicle ownership and gasoline consumption as more and more households are able to afford to drive. India's thirst for gasoline will be the most important source of oil demand growth over the next few years. The country is set to join the United States and China in a new group of Big 3 oil consuming countries.

India's mobility revolution is driving global oil demand

Last week the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its most recent Short Term Energy Outlook (STEO), and the forecast now calls for record U.S. gasoline consumption this year.

"Motor gasoline consumption is forecast to increase by 130,000 b/d (1.5%) to 9.29 million b/d in 2016, which would make it the highest annual average gasoline consumption on record, beating the previous record set in 2007 by 0.1%. The increase in gasoline consumption reflects a forecast 2.5% increase in highway travel (because of employment growth and lower retail gasoline prices)"

Thus, the bottom line is that despite the growth of EVs and an increase in the overall fuel efficiency of cars on U.S. roads, gasoline demand does appear to have risen to record levels.

U.S. Gasoline Demand Reaches Record Levels

[StarvingLion]

Its obvious that the Conventional Oil/Gas and Coal Industry at this point in time is a sacrificial lamb to bootstrap Natural Gas Hydrates + Solar + Wind.

Natural Gas Hydrates is the largest ff reserves on earth.

The etpers underestimate this mining of the ocean seabed with automated vehicles to get GAS. BW Hill doesn't even recognize natural gas at all.

[rockdoc123]

The Etp model accounts for the rise in demand. It is coming mostly from the oil industry itself! So people saying "demand is rising, demand is rising" over and over is basically just irrelevant. Rising demand does not invalidate the Etp model.

Because the oil industry itself is responsible for so much of the current growth in demand, demand will fall along with production. Thus, the price of oil will never recover.

well show us some evidence of this (data). It basically doesn't make any sense for one simple reason, the oil industry demand for oil is through demand for diesel for rigs, gasoline for service trucks and drillers/rig hands. Given the world wide rig count has gone down not up the demand for fuel by the oil industry is not increasing. If oil companies aren't drilling or fracking at increased rates the demand is not going up. If companies are just producing, no matter at what rate they are not consuming more oil.

[SumYunGai]

well show us some evidence of this (data). It basically doesn't make any sense for one simple reason, the oil industry demand for oil is through demand for diesel for rigs, gasoline for service trucks and drillers/rig hands. Given the world wide rig count has gone down not up the demand for fuel by the oil industry is not increasing. If oil companies aren't drilling or fracking at increased rates the demand is not going up. If companies are just producing, no matter at what rate they are not consuming more oil.

Have we passed peak oil? Is world oil production in decline? By your logic, it should be, since the rig count is in decline. I don't think the rig count is a good proxy for fuel demand by the oil industry. Perhaps the remaining rigs are just using more energy per rig. It takes energy to produce energy. If companies are producing more oil, then it takes a more energy to do it. That is physics. There is no way around this.

Industry went from 19.9% of oil's consumption in 1973 to 8.4% in 2013. Transportation meanwhile went from 45.4% of oil consumption to 63.8% of oil consumption. It is transportation that is driving oil demand, not oil production:

This is misleading in two ways. One, the stats are for industry, not specifically the oil industry. And two, the data stops in 2013! We are concerned with what demand has been doing since 2014. Why do you do this?

[rockdoc123]

This is misleading in two ways. One, the stats are for industry, not specifically the oil industry. And two, the data stops in 2013! We are concerned with what demand has been doing since 2014. Why do you do this?

well then show us all the stats to support your view that the oil industry has been the only source of demand increase for oil.

It makes zero sense.

[ROCKMAN]

Doc - "The Etp model accounts for the rise in demand. It is coming mostly from the oil industry itself!" True bizarre, eh? So we're burning more diesel running 70% fewer rigs today then we were during the shale. Some times these debates sound like an argument with a 4 year old who wants to eat only desert and not dinner. To them the "logic" is simple. LOL

[kublikhan]

Why do you do this?

That particular source stopped in 2013. I'm not playing that game with you again. Let me just give you a warning you are on thin ice as it is by evading your moderator ban. Tread lightly whatever. As for your other point about it being all industry vs oil production alone, please refer to Rockman's quote.

[ennui2]

Ah, so the truth comes out. Whatever didn't quit, but was banned. And yet...

[SumYunGai]

Tnx for your persistence

Thanks for your support, pstarr. I am trying my best. Like you, I believe that in debates such as these, it is the ideas that are most important. The rest is just noise.

This is misleading in two ways. One, the stats are for industry, not specifically the oil industry. And two, the data stops in 2013! We are concerned with what demand has been doing since 2014. Why do you do this?

well then show us all the stats to support your view that the oil industry has been the only source of demand increase for oil.

It makes zero sense.

There are no stats like the ones you are asking for. And I did not say that the oil industry was the only source of demand increase. Just most of it.

Here, again, is what BWHill said:

We have seen a 65% reduction in price with a 3% increase in demand. If a retailer cut their prices by 65%, and only saw a 3% increase in sales they would shut their doors. The Etp Model predicts a 2.5% increase in demand from the production side alone.

If you want to know more about how it was calculated, you'll have to ask BWHill yourself.

[ennui2]

There are no stats like the ones you are asking for. And I did not say that the oil industry was the only source of demand increase. Just most of it.

If there are no stats then you can't say how much demand is coming from the oil industry, all or none.

[SumYunGai]

There are no stats like the ones you are asking for. And I did not say that the oil industry was the only source of demand increase. Just most of it.

If there are no stats then you can't say how much demand is coming from the oil industry, all or none.

BWHill calculates it from the Etp model. If stats were available for this, there would be no need for an Etp model.

[ennui2]

BWHill calculates it from the Etp model.

In other words, he pulled it out of his ass.

[kublikhan]

There are no stats like the ones you are asking for. And I did not say that the oil industry was the only source of demand increase. Just most of it.

But there are stats. And they show your statement is factually incorrect. First off, "most of it" is not even suited for oil production as it is not diesel. Only around 24% of oil ends up as diesel. That means 76% of oil is right off the bat not used for oil production. Now lets breakdown that diesel further to see how much of it is used by the oil industry:

US Oil Industry diesel consumption
2014 2,105,058,000 gallons per year or 137,316 bpd
2009 760,877,000 gallons per year or 49,633 bpd

Sales of Distillate Fuel Oil by End Use

Looks like US oil companies consumed about 137,316 bpd of fuel in 2014. Which is 87,683 bpd more than they consumed in 2009. Now lets compare that to US oil production numbers:

US oil production:
2014 8,653,000 bpd
2009 5,350,000 bpd

International Energy Statistics

The US produced 8,653,000 bpd of oil in 2014. Let's just look at the increase in oil from 2009. Which was a 3,303,000 bpd increase. So the US oil industry consumed an extra 87,683 bpd of diesel to produce an extra 3,303,000 bpd of oil. That means of that oil production increase from 2009-2014, only 2.7% was consumed by oil companies. If you use the overall figures for 2014 only their share is an even lower 1.6%.

[radon1]

Is there anybody answering the phone?

They marxists who blew this $100 trillion derivative bubble, which is about to pop?

[rockdoc123]

Doc - "The Etp model accounts for the rise in demand. It is coming mostly from the oil industry itself!" True bizarre, eh? So we're burning more diesel running 70% fewer rigs today then we were during the shale. Some times these debates sound like an argument with a 4 year old who wants to eat only desert and not dinner. To them the "logic" is simple. LOL

Oh but there is a model.....hence we can ignore all evidence and logic to the contrary as the model must be right!!!

I weep for the future of our species when confronted with such logic.

[ennui2]

The US produced 8,653,000 bpd of oil in 2014. Let's just look at the increase in oil from 2009. Which was a 3,303,000 bpd increase. So the US oil industry consumed an extra 87,683 bpd of diesel to produce an extra 3,303,000 bpd of oil. That means of that oil production increase from 2009-2014, only 2.7% was consumed by oil companies. If you use the overall figures for 2014 only their share is an even lower 1.6%.

Wow. That blows the knee-jerk peaker's talking point about unconventional's terrible EROEI ratios out of the water.