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Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 15:18:17

onlooker wrote:Quite some time ago, Richard Heinberg was already anticipating this rollercoaster ride in prices in his book "When the Party is Over"


What rollercoaster ride? I don't recall him predicting that the consequence to peak oil would be increased supply of a size to disrupt the entire global market, that supply originating from the US, the price crashing and STAYING there because of this new supply, etc etc. Perhaps you read a different print edition of that book then I did? He specifically refuted the things that happened, as best I can tell.

onlooker wrote: But, the important thing to note is that this seesaw effect will get progressively worse so that as both the Oil Industsry and thus the Economy descend ever more, the ability of the oil price to recover ie get higher and of the Economy to get better fizzles out due to energy/economic constraints.


Progressively worse? The current global markets haven't yet approached what went on in the 1970's or what happened in 1986. So where do you get this "progressively worse" idea? As opposed to progressively better because, as many professionals might note, "holy cow this is bad! But at least I didn't lose my job like we all did in 1986!"
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 15:36:55

onlooker wrote:So you don't see depletion and thermodynamics working in the background limiting the ability to maneuver economically?


You mean the depletion of oil that has been going on since 1859, and following the laws of thermodynamics in its use the same way then as it is now? Neither of those limited the ability of the US to go from a land of small farmers to the superpower it is to this day, the rules of thermodynamics haven't changed over this time, and arguably while the rate of depletion has fluctuated from year to year within 3 different centuries now, that rate doesn't appear to be causal to any of the economic issues across that same time span.

onlooker wrote:In particular these background factors creating Net Energy shortfalls that affect adversely both the Energy Industry and the General Economy


Only if you BELIEVE they do. Certainly there is no evidence, of course BELIEVERS might not want to remember the SCIENCE that Charlie and Cutler did using net energy to predict the end of oil drilling in the US by 2000 because of net energy. We all know how that went.

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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 21:50:39

vtsnowedin wrote:I have repeatedly denounced the ETP thermodynamics mumbo jumbo for the farce that it is.
Depletion on the other hand will happen but will force us to maneuver not limit us. The energy industry will make as much money on the down side of the curve as they did going up and perhaps quite a bit more even in inflation adjusted dollars. Net energy shortfalls? Shortfall from what line. At present we waste a lot of oil because it is plentiful and cheap (relatively) and the first thing we will do is stop wasting it for things like central heating. The general economy will of course undergo changes but it is always changing anyway so this will just be the newest change it has to adapt to. There will be a lot of opportunities for those that seek and find substitutes and new more efficient methods and these new activities will balance out those employed now by wasting cheap oil.


FWIW, such models are based on the reality of depletion.

The energy industry, like the rest, can only make more money given cheap energy. With depletion, there is no such thing.

Oil is not plentiful and cheap given production costs.

There are no substitutes, especially given the point that what affects oil also affects other material resources.

Obviously, the world economy will undergo changes, but likely not in the way you imagine. The reason is simple: it's a capitalist system, which means it relies on cheap energy to keep lots of credit propped up to supply the same plus goods to growing middle classes worldwide. Without that cheap energy, the system starts weakening, but we don't notice it because performance is measured using the same credit that's easily created.

In the end, in order for that change to take place while maintaining the same maintain, we will need ecological footprint to rise on average worldwide. That will require at least one more earth.

Of course, that's assuming that the world population does not increase further.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 22:08:27

ralfy wrote:
The energy industry, like the rest, can only make more money given cheap energy. With depletion, there is no such thing.

What nonsense. If energy is expensive the energy companies will use some expensive energy to produce a lot of expensive energy and sell it to their customers for a large profit. EroEI is king regardless of price levels.
Oil is not plentiful and cheap given production costs.

86 million barrels a day is plentiful and $60 to $66/ barrel is cheap. And that price range includes the production costs.
There are no substitutes, especially given the point that what affects oil also affects other material resources.
While there may not be a substitute for jet fuel there are alternatives to just about everything else and as we are looking at a decline in supply not a complete cut off of all oil we will muddle through.
Obviously, the world economy will undergo changes, but likely not in the way you imagine. The reason is simple: it's a capitalist system, which means it relies on cheap energy to keep lots of credit propped up to supply the same plus goods to growing middle classes worldwide. Without that cheap energy, the system starts weakening, but we don't notice it because performance is measured using the same credit that's easily created.

In the end, in order for that change to take place while maintaining the same maintain, we will need ecological footprint to rise on average worldwide. That will require at least one more earth.

Of course, that's assuming that the world population does not increase further.

That last anti capitalism socialist rant doesn't deserve a reply.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 07 Jan 2018, 10:54:13

ralfy wrote:FWIW, such models are based on the reality of depletion.


How would you know...unless your daddy figure Matt Savinar used his palm reading skills to tell you?

ralfy wrote:The energy industry, like the rest, can only make more money given cheap energy. With depletion, there is no such thing.


Since the end of cheap oil, circa 1970 or so, the oil industry has made money quite nicely on more expensive oil.

ralfy wrote:Oil is not plentiful and cheap given production costs.


Oil is not as plentiful as it once was, because we've used 1.3T barrels, leaving us maybe another 6-7T maybe? So the good news is that plentiful doesn't matter as much as you give it credit for in this case. Ask your palm reader, even he knows what it means when only 20% or so of something is used, it means you've still got 80% to go!
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 08 Jan 2018, 01:11:47

vtsnowedin wrote:What nonsense. If energy is expensive the energy companies will use some expensive energy to produce a lot of expensive energy and sell it to their customers for a large profit. EroEI is king regardless of price levels.


How is there a large profit is cost is also expensive?

86 million barrels a day is plentiful and $60 to $66/ barrel is cheap. And that price range includes the production costs.


It was predicted in 2005 that production would easily meet demand expected to exceed 115 Mbd by 2016.

And didn't the oil industry borrow heavily to increase production?

While there may not be a substitute for jet fuel there are alternatives to just about everything else and as we are looking at a decline in supply not a complete cut off of all oil we will muddle through.


There are no substitutes in terms of what a global capitalist system needs.

And muddling through is precisely my point. But that's the best-case scenario.

That last anti capitalism socialist rant doesn't deserve a reply.


That's not an "anti-capitalist[,] socialist rant" but one based on biocapacity. Your basic knowledge of science is pathetic.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 08 Jan 2018, 13:18:15

So the prediction on the day oil was selling for $44.85 was that prices will never recover. And since then prices have increased 37% based on EIA stats. Thus the life of folks who think they are smart enough to predict the price of oil, even in the short the short term. Or should I say "shorty" term? LOL.

And the trend seems to show an increasing price movement. Of course that might not last another day. Or it might last thru the end of the year. Fortunately I'm not one of those silly people that thinks he cans predict the future price of oil. So I'll just still with the FACTS: since the day it was predicted that oil prices would "never recover" oil prices have recovered more then 1/3. I'll just till mid year to see where prices are see if there's any mathematical possibility for the predicted average price for 2018 to materialize. After all that's only 25 weeks away.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 08 Jan 2018, 18:13:57

18jan01 Weekly MAP 2008-19 BahamasEd Resized.jpg
18jan01 Weekly MAP 2008-19 BahamasEd Resized.jpg (111.13 KiB) Viewed 1209 times


We shall see as this BahamaEd chart shows the oil price taking a dive upon/while hitting roughly the Etp MAP price since 2008.
is-fast-crash-likely-pt-8-t73988-220.html
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