Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 27 Sep 2016, 17:15:09

SumYunGai doesn't do Martenson crash courses. He does his own thinking.

I did a simple search of ennui's previous posts here at peakoildotcom, 16 references to Martenson, all derogatory. It's another of ennui's fillins for 'doomer' ennui never read Martenson. ennui has no idea who or what Martenson is. ennui has a stuck brain with a few derogatory phrases going around and around.
Image
loopty loop

Listen ennui, you are good with Trump bashing and Hillary pumping. Why not stay there and stop making a fool of yourself here.
November 2016
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 27176
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 27 Sep 2016, 18:06:39

Hmm.. I thought I heard the cooing of a pigeon chess-player under my ignore filter.

Image
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
User avatar
ennui2
permanently banned
 
Posts: 3920
Joined: Tue 20 Sep 2011, 09:37:02
Location: Not on Homeworld

Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 27 Sep 2016, 18:37:42

ennui, you still believe high oil prices don't damper demand for oil, or have a negative influence on markets. I remember you saying economic health is manipulated by banksters, mortgage financiers and speculators. And GMO's.

Oil substitution is not only replacement of petroleum by wind and solar. Or ICE by EV's. Heres a clue: substitution also includes walking/biking instead of driving, not going to work at all. Even dying. It's happened already to economies and countries all over the world. Demand has disappeared, permanently killed by $100 oil. This is not a oil glut, but rather a demand dearth. For example:
Image
It's wasn't Tesla's that destroyed demand for oil in Spain.
November 2016
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 27176
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 27 Sep 2016, 19:35:52

The National Commercial Bank (NCB) of Saudi Arabia was down 3.5% today hitting new lows just like Deutsche Bank. Gee, I wonder what ennui2 will say..."Its a House of Saud problem"...


Saudi banks' liquidity comfortable in spite of outflows, says Fitch
Al-Arabiya-Sep 26, 2016
LCRs for major Saudi banks, with the exception of NCB, fell sharply in the ... Saudi Arabian banks began reporting LCRs in 2015, and the Basel ...
Saudi stocks tumble on government's austerity measures
Gulf Times-5 hours ago
There is no escaping The Oil Apocalypse and there will be no survivors.
StarvingLion
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1180
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 17:59:17

Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 27 Sep 2016, 20:08:17

Communist Comrades, We are at the Precipice of ennui2 Imploding Bullshit

Neocon Killary Klinton: "So we’re now on the precipice of having a potentially much better economy"...yeah its called CURRENCY COLLAPSE AFTER OIL COLLAPSE:

Image

"Oil prices could quickly dive to $40 or lower if OPEC members leave Algeria without any promise of a deal."

Image

“State aid won’t happen”

Ho Ho Ho!
There is no escaping The Oil Apocalypse and there will be no survivors.
StarvingLion
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1180
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 17:59:17

Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby SumYunGai » Tue 27 Sep 2016, 22:11:12

ennui2 wrote:
SumYunGai wrote:The German banking problems didn't happen in a vacuum...Everything is connected


Ah, the always popular fallback of vague correlation = causation. Good old Chris Martenson's Crash Course * dot connecting which is about as funky as Glenn Beck's chalkboard connecting Obama to "bad stuff". Yes, everything's connected.... Is it in a circle--in a hoop that never ends? Nice and catchy and culty. Unfortunately, lacking in cold hard facts.

* Now remarketed as Peak Prosperity because...oil glut.

I did not just suggest that everything is somehow vaguely connected. You are misquoting me. Here is what I actually said, with the part you left out properly restored:

"Everything is connected to the total energy level of the system, which is currently in decline. If the world economy could grow faster, there wouldn't be any German banking problems. And the oil price would rise."

Are you arguing that the economy doesn't need energy?
User avatar
SumYunGai
permanently banned
 
Posts: 421
Joined: Fri 29 Jul 2016, 20:02:21

Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 28 Sep 2016, 12:36:43

The Global Ponzi Scheme is COLLAPSING...

Image

"...the World Trade Organization dramatically slashed its forecast for trade growth this year by about a third to its lowest rate since 2009"

"The Geneva-based WTO, perhaps best known for dealing with trade disputes, predicted that global trade will rise only 1.7 percent this year, way down from its April prediction for 2.8 percent."

"If the WTO's forecast comes true, it will be the first time in 15 years that global trade grows more slowly than the world economy, which it expects to expand by 2.2 percent."

"As well as reducing its 2016 forecast, the WTO cut its project for next year to between 1.8 percent and 3.1 percent from 3.6 percent."
There is no escaping The Oil Apocalypse and there will be no survivors.
StarvingLion
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1180
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 17:59:17

Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby ennui2 » Wed 28 Sep 2016, 12:43:10

SumYunGai wrote:Are you arguing that the economy doesn't need energy?


No. I'm arguing with your assertion that it's lacking in EROEI at present, like your bogus numbers regarding refining that has been thrown back into your face.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
User avatar
ennui2
permanently banned
 
Posts: 3920
Joined: Tue 20 Sep 2011, 09:37:02
Location: Not on Homeworld

Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby davep » Wed 28 Sep 2016, 14:23:15

OK chaps, kindly avoid the ad homs. We're getting seriously sick of it and will be enforcing more civil discourse more rapidly because otherwise the atmosphere gets too toxic for the majority of users of the site to want to contribute.

And that isn't up for debate.
What we think, we become.
User avatar
davep
Senior Moderator
Senior Moderator
 
Posts: 4569
Joined: Wed 21 Jun 2006, 02:00:00
Location: Europe

Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 28 Sep 2016, 15:35:51

pstarr - "Demand has disappeared, permanently killed by $100 oil. This is not a oil glut, but rather a demand dearth." Buddy, I get the GENERAL point you're trying to make but you stumble a tad when you miss pertinent stats. Looking at you Spain consumption chart it seems clear that oil prices played a role. Especially with the slight increase as of late. Which is backed by the FACT that global consumption reached RECORD HIGHS as prices fell. There's are valid points to be made but obviously not "perminnt", right?
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11033
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 28 Sep 2016, 16:27:46

The A.I. Computers control everything including the price of oil:

Image

"Virtually every "name brand" hedge fund is facing redemptions to the tune of billions of dollars. The retirements of industry legends as well as the wind-down of once invincible firms make the news on a regular basis."

"Leaving aside the fact that the performance simply isn't there, investors are not immune to the shift in society at large toward data-driven decision making. Smart beta strategies and even some liquid alts have taken the "alpha" that was once handcrafted, trade by trade, and have distilled it into a "structured alpha" pursuit using factors, formulas and algorithms to do what was once the province of the emperors"

Image

OPEC will first raise production, in order to limit production in November...
There is no escaping The Oil Apocalypse and there will be no survivors.
StarvingLion
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1180
Joined: Sat 03 Aug 2013, 17:59:17

Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Wed 28 Sep 2016, 16:28:37

Looking at you Spain consumption chart it seems clear that oil prices played a role.


If you ignore the fact that the mortgage/banking crisis in Spain was coincident with the same in the US and was the worst in all of Europe.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5957
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 28 Sep 2016, 16:46:17

Doc - As I just pointed out elsewehere to Goner is that in addition to the LONG time lags between oil prices and various economic metrics that make causation analysis difficult are the other events that overlay themselves onto the data. I didn't ignore so much as didn't care to detail ALL the different factors that impacted that chart.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11033
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 01 Nov 2016, 11:36:51

Just an interesting tidbit about the non-existent US oil export ban I had not noticed before: during the year (2015) prior to President Obama lifting the "ban" on exporting US oil last January the US exported more crude oil then during any other year in the entire history of the United States of America.
User avatar
ROCKMAN
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 11033
Joined: Tue 27 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: TEXAS

Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 07:23:40

BahamasEd wrote:Yes, and by the EIA we are still producing more then we are using so we can't start working off the glut until then balance.

So by their forecast it should balance sometime next year and I would think it would take another year to work down the glut so prices can start to rise again, maybe sometime in 2018.

But the EIA predicts the future about as well as I do.

So I stand by my statement, Oil is not cheap yet, it needs do drop back down into the $20s to clear the market. I think that if the price stays between $45 to $60 then production will continue to out pace consumption

https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/repo ... al_oil.cfm


16 months down the road it looks like the EIA staff was not as wrong as you thought. Prices stayed right in your range for most of that period and the glut has receded considerably due to world economic growth.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 14770
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 02:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 10:17:21

Quite some time ago, Richard Heinberg was already anticipating this rollercoaster ride in prices in his book "When the Party is Over" But, the important thing to note is that this seesaw effect will get progressively worse so that as both the Oil Industsry and thus the Economy descend ever more, the ability of the oil price to recover ie get higher and of the Economy to get better fizzles out due to energy/economic constraints.
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9293
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 10:38:51

onlooker wrote:Quite some time ago, Richard Heinberg was already anticipating this rollercoaster ride in prices in his book "When the Party is Over" But, the important thing to note is that this seesaw effect will get progressively worse so that as both the Oil Industsry and thus the Economy descend ever more, the ability of the oil price to recover ie get higher and of the Economy to get better fizzles out due to energy/economic constraints.

Why would the see saw effect get progressively worse?
I expect just the opposite with each increase in price producing a smaller amount of surplus oil and smaller and smaller gluts with smaller and smaller price swings with each top being a new high and each low being higher then the lows preceding it.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 8874
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 10:49:34

So you don't see depletion and thermodynamics working in the background limiting the ability to maneuver economically? In particular these background factors creating Net Energy shortfalls that affect adversely both the Energy Industry and the General Economy
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
User avatar
onlooker
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9293
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 11:27:34

onlooker wrote:So you don't see depletion and thermodynamics working in the background limiting the ability to maneuver economically? In particular these background factors creating Net Energy shortfalls that affect adversely both the Energy Industry and the General Economy

I have repeatedly denounced the ETP thermodynamics mumbo jumbo for the farce that it is.
Depletion on the other hand will happen but will force us to maneuver not limit us. The energy industry will make as much money on the down side of the curve as they did going up and perhaps quite a bit more even in inflation adjusted dollars. Net energy shortfalls? Shortfall from what line. At present we waste a lot of oil because it is plentiful and cheap (relatively) and the first thing we will do is stop wasting it for things like central heating. The general economy will of course undergo changes but it is always changing anyway so this will just be the newest change it has to adapt to. There will be a lot of opportunities for those that seek and find substitutes and new more efficient methods and these new activities will balance out those employed now by wasting cheap oil.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 8874
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 06 Jan 2018, 15:13:42

Tanada wrote:
BahamasEd wrote:Yes, and by the EIA we are still producing more then we are using so we can't start working off the glut until then balance.

So by their forecast it should balance sometime next year and I would think it would take another year to work down the glut so prices can start to rise again, maybe sometime in 2018.

But the EIA predicts the future about as well as I do.

So I stand by my statement, Oil is not cheap yet, it needs do drop back down into the $20s to clear the market. I think that if the price stays between $45 to $60 then production will continue to out pace consumption

https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/repo ... al_oil.cfm


16 months down the road it looks like the EIA staff was not as wrong as you thought. Prices stayed right in your range for most of that period and the glut has receded considerably due to world economic growth.


The EIA folks have the appropriate expertise, data and people who can use both. And as I often say, they are also one of the few organizations that didn't jump on the peak oil bandwagon...they knew better. Let's hear it for tax payer dollars paying for folks who actually KNOW stuff.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 4304
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

PreviousNext

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 26 guests