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Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 12 Sep 2016, 09:06:17

Observerbrb wrote:Why should I change my views if I'm right as of today?


Because you're wrong, that's why. That it seems to make sense to you doesn't mean you're not wrong. And if you were capable of admitting you were wrong once, then be willing to admit you're wrong again, like maybe after oil spikes beyond a certain point, or 4 years hence when the sky doesn't fall the way ETP says it will. Not that I relish the idea of waiting 4 years to say I-told-ya-so...
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 12 Sep 2016, 11:08:19

Observerbrb wrote:Steve Ludlum's explanation makes complete sense to me, and so far I have not considered other options to be feasible.


The nonsensical one, or the whimsical one? His opinion on his explanation, not mine.

May I recommend utilizing people as references who don't think their own explanations are fantasy?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 12 Sep 2016, 11:24:39

AdamB wrote:
Observerbrb wrote:Steve Ludlum's explanation makes complete sense to me, and so far I have not considered other options to be feasible.


The nonsensical one, or the whimsical one? His opinion on his explanation, not mine.

May I recommend utilizing people as references who don't think their own explanations are fantasy?

Such whimsy!

That fantasy is believing anyone reads you guys/gals posts. Everyone has you two guys/gals on ignore. (well except for me and Kub and Outy). I like having you two around. It drives hits, and gets the peakoil message out. It's also a great hoot. So how long have you two been dating. So dear. :) Which one goes first? When you date, does the money come from O&GJ?
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 12 Sep 2016, 11:29:28

pstarr wrote:That fantasy is believing anyone reads you guys/gals posts.


Well, others have posted (and you have undoubtedly ignored) the interest in peak oil, waning a bit after it turns out that the ideas contained therein were no more predictive now than they were when Colin Campbell claimed it was happening in the late 80's.

pstarr wrote:Everyone here (except me and Kub and Outy) has you two guys on ignore.


Well, there are the 3 lurkers who haven't. But I will admit, that is about the size of the audience nowadays. And we all know why, and that is because most folks drive cars or fly and travel and can see those numbers on the boards outside the local gas stations and convenience stores, and know that whatever those numbers are, they sure don't have anything to do with scarcity.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby Observerbrb » Mon 12 Sep 2016, 17:31:17

ennui2 wrote:
Observerbrb wrote:Why should I change my views if I'm right as of today?


Because you're wrong, that's why. That it seems to make sense to you doesn't mean you're not wrong. And if you were capable of admitting you were wrong once, then be willing to admit you're wrong again, like maybe after oil spikes beyond a certain point, or 4 years hence when the sky doesn't fall the way ETP says it will. Not that I relish the idea of waiting 4 years to say I-told-ya-so...


As I previously stated, I will not have any problem to admit that I was mistaken -again- (if the time comes). The main difference for me right now, is that I can explain why I was wrong before, and why I think this is not going to happen again. And trust me, it would be a complete pleasure for me to admit that I have been wrong twice - The outcome it's too scary if Steve and BW Hill assessment turns out to be right.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 12 Sep 2016, 18:09:24

Observerbrb wrote:As I previously stated, I will not have any problem to admit that I was mistaken -again- (if the time comes). The main difference for me right now, is that I can explain why I was wrong before, and why I think this is not going to happen again. And trust me, it would be a complete pleasure for me to admit that I have been wrong twice - The outcome it's too scary if Steve and BW Hill assessment turns out to be right.


I'm satisfied with this mea culpa--for now. Let's see if you follow through after oil spikes up again, or, as I suspect, ETP zealots will say "oh, oil can spike, breifly" and then how much it can spike and how long it's allowed to stay up there stretches for however long is required. That's pretty much how this is gonna go down. Oil prices will oscillate and the economy will continue through natural boom and bust cycles and all along the way peakers will be attempting to attribute everything, the price spikes, valleys, economic ups and downs, riots, wars, etc... to the "peak oil dynamic".
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 12 Sep 2016, 20:39:52

ennui2 and Adam are terrified that Russian nuclear fission reactors will wipe out the Shale Gas Scam and the useless solar cells.

Soon they will be in the fields with a shovel once Scamerica goes broke.
Last edited by StarvingLion on Mon 12 Sep 2016, 21:10:17, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 12 Sep 2016, 20:56:16

StarvingLion wrote:Soon they will be in the fields with a shovel once Scamerica goes broke.


And where will you be?
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 12 Sep 2016, 21:54:46

Oh my god, Adam's Shale Gas Scam (and WindSCAM and SolarSCAM) is in BIG BIG TROUBLE.

http://thediplomat.com/2016/09/signs-of ... inst-a2ad/

Signs of Diminishing Returns for US Military Investment Against A2/AD (Anti-Access/Area Denial)

"Trends show U.S. could maintain its military edge and still fight to a draw in the future. "

---------------------------------

Gee, a draw. I guess that won't stop the Russian/Chinese nuclear onslaught clubbing the already bankrupt shale gas and "renewables" scams into the ground. Goodbye JUNK CURRENCY.

No wonder the comedy duo of Hill and Ludlum are predicting the end of the world. For them, it really is the end of the world.

BW better dump the apocalypse (etp model) and hope he knows something about advanced integrated multiband detection networks that we do not. A plane flying into a good AD/a2 is dead. Trillions of JUNK CURRENCY down the drain on the B-2 and F-35. That means Shitcan the Conomy to compensate which dulls the price of oil.

Did China Just Render America's $1 Trillion Stealth Fighter Program ...
http://www.fool.com/.../did-china-just- ... ealth.aspx
Oct 19, 2014 - Dubbed the DWL002, China's equipment can apparently detect stealth aircraft at distances of up to 400 kilometers -- and 600 kilometers for ...
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 13 Sep 2016, 09:24:43

Hey, SL, I asked you a question. While you are indulging in your predictions of schadenfreude, you've failed to answer where you will be when the supposed house of cards comes crumbling down. You've been pretty silent on bragging about any sort of preps or bugout plans.

Could it be you're in the same damn pot as the rest of us and just fail to acknowledge it?
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 13 Sep 2016, 21:52:06

Jan Steinman just shocked the world today when he stated that the oil price cannot rise due to building out the only means of powering electric vehicles. Its too late and ennui2 is doomed:

http://euanmearns.com/the-age-and-futur ... /#comments

Jan Steinman says:
September 12, 2016 at 9:40 pm

This whole argument seems to ignore the 800-pound gorilla lurking in a corner of the room: fossil sunlight depletion.

FACT: it takes fossil sunlight to make nuclear power stations.

FACT: the fossil sunlight situation is on what the IEA calls an “undulating plateau.” The most optimistic view says this can continue for 20 years. The most pessimistic says oil will begin declining 3% to 6% annually Any Day Now™.

What happens when “too cheap to meter” meets “unobtainable at any price?”

Jan Steinman says:
September 14, 2016 at 12:12 am

Oh, c’mon, now… don’t be so hard on the guy!

Zealots will be zealous. Why let silly things like “facts” get in the way?

Although I’m not a fan of nuclear, I think the door is quickly closing on new, advanced designs. As fossil sunlight goes into permanent, irrevocable decline — while population and life-style expectations continue to increase — there just isn’t going to be enough energy left to build them.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby Observerbrb » Tue 27 Sep 2016, 07:57:38

BW Hill is right again

the bank cut its Q4 oil price target from $50 to $43, as the bank admits the previously anticipated rebalancing will take longer to achieve, and now expects "a global surplus of 400 kb/d in 4Q16 vs. a 300 kb/d draw previously."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-2 ... al-surplus

(Sorry for the ZH source :roll: )

OT; Do we have another Lehman in the making?

Image

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/27/european ... ebate.html

Low interest rates are literally killing the banking system. Of course, that the economy needs low interest rates to function is definitely not related to the Oil situation :roll:
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 27 Sep 2016, 08:24:42

"Low interest rates are literally killing the banking system."

US banks just recorded their most profitable quarter EVER

American banks spent the second quarter crying all the way to the, well, bank. Despite an increasing regulatory burden and amid lackluster share performance, the industry logged record profits for the period, topping the second quarter of 2015, according to figures from SNL Financial and S&P Global Market Intelligence.

Profits for the three-month period totaled $43.6 billion, compared to the $43.01 billion in Q2 of 2015, a 1.4 percent beat. On a sequential basis, the April-to-June period topped the previous quarter by $4.56 billion, an 11.7 percent rise.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby Observerbrb » Tue 27 Sep 2016, 10:24:02

Here is what an ex-BCE assistant (and now working in one of the biggest banks of the world: Spanish's BBVA)

http://economia.elpais.com/economia/201 ... 12489.html

For those who don't know spanish:

https://translate.google.com/translate? ... edit-text=

So, in other words, the fat cat says that "banks are going to have problems if interest rates stay low".
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby StarvingLion » Tue 27 Sep 2016, 13:11:43

Hahahhahaha...Look RockPuppet, ....

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gener ... krupt.html

The real reason energy companies are going bankrupt is more technical.

Reserve base lending for unconventional reservoir projects became a ponzi scheme. This is how it works.

Step 1) An oil company borrows money or issues equity to drill a well.

Step 2) The well “discovers” oil. The reason I put discover in quotations is that the resource (not reserve, there is a difference) potential of shale source rocks has been known for decades.

Step 3) Estimate the resource and reserve potential.
NB: Resource is properly defined as uneconomic at the current price. Reserve is properly defined as economic at the current price.

Step 4) Book the reserve as an asset on the balance sheet as per SEC legislation.

Step 5) Borrow money against the reserve.

Step 6) Drill more wells and book more reserves and borrow more money.

Step 7) Repeat until you cannot repeat again.

This process was not always a Ponzi scheme. Before the mantra of peak oil and the fear the world as running out of oil this practice was done conservatively. But when the idea that world was short of crude supply the thinking became that oil was a one way trade. This gave Wall Street the confidence that lending money against high cost reserves to develop more high cost reserves was a sound practice. On the other side of the transaction little thought by producers was given to the scenarios that would cause these reserves revert to resources and be treated differently on their balance sheet.

Related: A Freeze Won’t Do – OPEC Needs To Cut Production

Furthering the Ponzi scheme was Central Bank policies of zero percent interest rates. This cheap source of funds decreased the discount rates for cash flow streams, increasing the net present value and distorting the time value of money calculation for these type of projects.

Under this strategy developing more reserves meant more debt. When prices reverted to the mean, reserves became resources and these companies became insolvent as resources are not the same quality asset as reserves and are treated differently under SEC legislation.

Exacerbating the problem was now these producers have to maximize cash flow to cover the interest cost which creates more excess supply and more downward pressure on prices turning more reserves back into resources impairing more balance sheets and strengthening the negative feedback loop.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby SumYunGai » Tue 27 Sep 2016, 13:42:19

Observerbrb wrote:Here is what an ex-BCE assistant (and now working in one of the biggest banks of the world: Spanish's BBVA)

http://economia.elpais.com/economia/201 ... 12489.html

For those who don't know spanish:

https://translate.google.com/translate? ... edit-text=

So, in other words, the fat cat says that "banks are going to have problems if interest rates stay low".

The ROCKMAN thinks that low interest rates are good for banks and that low oil prices are good for the oil industry. LOL.

Meanwhile, back in the real world, here is an updated oil price graph:

Image

The oil price still can't break above $15 below the Etp Maximum Oil Price Curve. This has been the case for almost 2 whole years! The constantly descending hard oil price ceiling is now pressing the maximum potential oil price well below $50 (about $47.25 today). The oil price is in a critical zone. The oil industry desperately needs oil prices to rise over $50. If, instead, the oil price falls back below $40 again, it will be very bad news. That triangle of DOOM is looking more and more real every day. 8O

Here is a close up view:

Image

Volatility is rising. In complex non-linear systems, this is called "squealing". It is a sign that the system is about to change states. Will the oil price go up or down?
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 27 Sep 2016, 14:32:47

I'll cry over this triangle of doom all the way to the <$2.00 pump. Wake me when cheap oil actually harms the economy. (BTW, the current german banking problems have nothing to do with your triangle of doom other than through your own imagination.)
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby SumYunGai » Tue 27 Sep 2016, 15:11:52

ennui2 wrote:I'll cry over this triangle of doom all the way to the <$2.00 pump. Wake me when cheap oil actually harms the economy. (BTW, the current german banking problems have nothing to do with your triangle of doom other than through your own imagination.)

The German banking problems didn't happen in a vacuum, ennui. Everything is connected to the total energy level of the system, which is currently in decline. If the world economy could grow faster, there wouldn't be any German banking problems. And the oil price would rise.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 27 Sep 2016, 15:21:42

SumYunGai wrote:
ennui2 wrote:I'll cry over this triangle of doom all the way to the <$2.00 pump. Wake me when cheap oil actually harms the economy. (BTW, the current german banking problems have nothing to do with your triangle of doom other than through your own imagination.)

The German banking problems didn't happen in a vacuum, ennui. Everything is connected to the total energy level of the system, which is currently in decline. If the world economy could grow faster, there wouldn't be any German banking problems. And the oil price would rise.

You need to understand ennui's brain. He doesn't believe high oil prices damper demand for oil, or have a negative influence on markets. Ennui is absolutely convinced that economic health is manipulated by banksters, mortgage financiers and speculators. And GMO's.

ennui also doesn't understand the comprehensive nature of economic 'substitution.' In his feeble brain oil substitution can only be the replacement of petroleum by wind and solar. Or ICE bys EV's. ennui can't fathom that substitution also includes walking/biking instead of driving, not going to work at all. Even dying. That is what is happening in economies and countries all over the world. Demand has disappeared, permanently killed by $100 oil. This is not a oil glut, but rather a demand dearth. For example:
Image
It's wasn't Tesla that destroyed demand for oil in Spain. But ennui doesn't really believe Spain exists either. They are not part of his blogosphere
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby ennui2 » Tue 27 Sep 2016, 16:53:13

SumYunGai wrote:The German banking problems didn't happen in a vacuum...Everything is connected


Ah, the always popular fallback of vague correlation = causation. Good old Chris Martenson's Crash Course * dot connecting which is about as funky as Glenn Beck's chalkboard connecting Obama to "bad stuff". Yes, everything's connected.... Is it in a circle--in a hoop that never ends? Nice and catchy and culty. Unfortunately, lacking in cold hard facts.

* Now remarketed as Peak Prosperity because...oil glut.
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