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Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby SumYunGai » Sun 11 Sep 2016, 11:28:42

kublikhan wrote:
SumYunGai wrote:People in developing countries are very poor. So even a small rise in the oil price has a profound effect on their budget.

Really now? Have you done the math on this?

Just because you have done some math, it doesn't make what you are claiming true. Your math is basically a semantic trick, attempting to down play the effect of oil prices on the world economy by claiming that people have plenty of money. But your whole approach really makes no sense at all. No matter how much money people have to spend, every penny of oil price increase is one less penny they have to spend on other things. Think about it.

kublikhan wrote:Even in China's slower growing economy, wages are still growing 7% per year. Meaning China's consumers can afford the more expensive oil from wage growth alone, 5 times over. From just 1 year's wage growth.

So Chinese salaries increased 7% and the only thing the Chinese need to spend that increase on is oil? Did you factor in inflation? Rising housing costs?

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/housing-index

Average prices of new homes in 70 Chinese cities increased by 7.9 percent year-on-year in July of 2016


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kublikhan wrote:Don't forget they grow again next year, and the year after, and the year after, etc.

Really now? Do you have the stats for next year, and the year after, and the year after that, etc?
Last edited by SumYunGai on Sun 11 Sep 2016, 11:35:53, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby SumYunGai » Sun 11 Sep 2016, 11:53:55

pstarr wrote:
SumYunGai wrote:
kublikhan wrote:Really now? Have you done the math on this?

Just because you have done some math, it doesn't make what you are claiming true. Your math is basically a semantic trick, attempting to down play the effect of oil prices on the economy by claiming that people have lots money. But your whole approach really makes no sense at all. No matter how much money people have to spend, every penny of oil price increase is one less penny they have to spend on other things. Think about it.

That's what Kub does, he floods a thread with numbers, begging folks to prove him wrong. You can every time, I got tired of it long ago. As the old adage says ""If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit."

Keep up the good work Sum. You are a pleasure to behold :)

Thanks, pstarr.

You are so right about kublikhan. I think I said before that I have a tendency to skim kublikhan's useless posts for some reason. Now we have specified that reason.

And kublikhan is not the only one who writes useless posts. Another good example is ennui. His childish posts are designed to be jarring, distracting, and to degrade the overall tone of the thread, dragging everyone into the gutter with him. I would post links to several examples, but there is really no reason to. I expect ennui himself will soon submit another shinning example.
Last edited by SumYunGai on Sun 11 Sep 2016, 12:26:30, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 11 Sep 2016, 12:13:46

Maybe if you read kub's posts instead of skimming them then you'd realize how you're wrong on the internet.

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"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 11 Sep 2016, 12:27:05

pstarr said:

rockdoc123 wrote:
The rest of us have shown data several times that illustrate demand was never impacted by $100 oil and that the global economy has continued to grow.


Absolutely wrong. Craxy in fact.


Either you are suffering from short term memory loss or you are just thick, not sure which.

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Once more....from January 2011 through August 2014 oil prices hovered around $100/bbl. Prior to this run up in price, throughout the time it was at this price and following the collapse in prices through late 2014 and 2015 demand (as measured by consumption) continued to grow. Throughout this same period global gdp also continued to increase. There is no empirical evidence whatsoever that the world cannot afford $100 oil let alone oil in the $80 - $100 price band (which would solve the budget issues in Opec countries).
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 11 Sep 2016, 12:49:05

Doc - "...following the collapse in prices through late 2014 and 2015 demand (as measured by consumption) continued to grow." But wouldn't it be fair to speculate that both consumption and GDP continued to grow BECAUSE oil prices fell? IOW would one argue that we would have seen both increases if oil were still $100+/bbl?

Goes back to the problem we've talked about before: not just the cause/effect dynmamic but how the time lags fit in.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 11 Sep 2016, 13:35:08

But wouldn't it be fair to speculate that both consumption and GDP continued to grow BECAUSE oil prices fell? IOW would one argue that we would have seen both increases if oil were still $100+/bbl?


it doesn't follow from the data unless you count on special pleading. If that were the case you would have seen some amount of negative GDP growth and negative consumption before prices responded. You did not. You saw continuous growth in global GDP and consumption from January 2011 through August 2014 where prices were hovering around $100 and virtually no response after.

I am not sure why there are a number of people here who will just not accept the story that every investment bank in the world, the EIA and OPEC have been very vocal about. The fall in prices was due to too much supply coming into the market as a consequence of increased production from the US LTO plays, Russia and the fact that Saudi Arabia chose to kick OPEC to the curb and protect their market share by increasing production and selling oil at discounts to its SE Asia customers.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 11 Sep 2016, 14:23:24

rockdoc123 wrote:I am not sure why there are a number of people here who will just not accept the story that every investment bank in the world, the EIA and OPEC have been very vocal about. The fall in prices was due to too much supply coming into the market as a consequence of increased production from the US LTO plays, Russia and the fact that Saudi Arabia chose to kick OPEC to the curb and protect their market share by increasing production and selling oil at discounts to its SE Asia customers.


The reason some people can't accept it that some people can't let go of the clarion calls of doom before the fall of 2008.

ETP provides an apologia for this. It's an implausible one, but it's all these people have to hang their hat on.

Now, if they would just CAPITULATE to us being in a supply glut, then we could let go of the past and move forward once and for all. But no, that would be too humiliating.

The doomerism from 10 years ago therefore becomes a ball-and-chain that prevents people from thinking clearly for fear of damage to the ego that comes from simply admitting one was wrong.

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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 11 Sep 2016, 17:18:24

Pstarr wrote:That's what Kub does, he floods a thread with numbers, begging folks to prove him wrong. You can every time, I got tired of it long ago. As the old adage says ""If you can't dazzle them with brilliance, baffle them with bullshit."
Excuse me? Pstarr you are the one who floods threads with bullshit. Just a few examples:

1. You claimed computing progress has come to a end just because die shrinks take longer than 2 years. Bullshit.
2. You claimed Europe's long term fuel consumption decline begane in 2008. Bullshit.
3. You claimed the oil glut is "just a few barrels" Bullshit.
4. You specifically asked me to supply data on China's oil imports because you thought I was making up bullshit when I said they import more net oil than the US does. When I supplied the data, you shut up real fast.
5. You claimed oil demand all over the world is in decline. Bullshit.

And that's just some of the recent bullshit I called you out on. You are constantly posting bullshit on this site. Then you get mad when I call you out on it. Perhaps you should look in the mirror before accusing someone of posting bullshit.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 11 Sep 2016, 17:20:41

SumYunGai wrote:Just because you have done some math, it doesn't make what you are claiming true. Your math is basically a semantic trick, attempting to down play the effect of oil prices on the world economy by claiming that people have plenty of money. But your whole approach really makes no sense at all. No matter how much money people have to spend, every penny of oil price increase is one less penny they have to spend on other things. Think about it.
I thought you ETP guys were all about using math to prove a point? I tried using common sense arguments but they bounce right off of you. I tried showing you the facts of years of oil demand growth with $100 oil but those arguments bounce right off of you. I guess it's my fault for trying to argue facts with a zealot.

SumYunGai wrote:So Chinese salaries increased 7% and the only thing the Chinese need to spend that increase on is oil? Did you factor in inflation? Rising housing costs?
Monetary wages increased 8%. Real wages(after factoring in inflation), increased 6.3%.

SumYunGai wrote:Really now? Do you have the stats for next year, and the year after, and the year after that, etc?
China has been raising it's wages steadily and substantially for the past 10 years China's slowing economy will mean slower wage growth going forward so China will not be seeing double digit wage growth going forward as it did in the past. However even the authorities who want to limit wage growth will not stop it completely and speak of "slowing down" the rate of wage growth. So yes, I am confident that wage growth in China will continue in the years again.

SumYunGai wrote:You are so right about kublikhan. I think I said before that I have a tendency to skim kublikhan's useless posts for some reason. Now we have specified that reason.
Oh please. You know damn well why you "skimmed over my useless posts" from the get go. It's because you are Whatever who is back under a new name evading your mod ban.

SumYunGai wrote:And kublikhan is not the only one who writes useless posts. Another good example is ennui. His childish posts are designed to be jarring, distracting, and to degrade the overall tone of the thread, dragging everyone into the gutter with him. I would post links to several examples, but there is really no reason to. I expect ennui himself will soon submit another shinning example.
Says the guy who got banned from every forum he ever posted in. I would expect your kind of behavoir from a bored 12 year old troll. Not someone your age. Exactly how many forums have you gotten banned from? Let's see, there was:
1. PeakOilBarrel.com
2. OilDrum
3. Let's not forget this site
4. The Archdruid Report
5. Doomstead Diner
6. SciFi Forums
7. ScienceForums
8. I liked this post talking about you:
we got a poster affectionately dubbed on the Diner as “F-bomb” (real handle Futilitist) who made everyone so miserable I had to come up with an even DEEPER level of imprisonment, which I dubbed the Dungeon. F-bomb is the only resident of the Dungeon.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 11 Sep 2016, 18:03:57

pstarr wrote:Moore's Law is dead. Clock speed hit it's peak almost a decade ago. Core's are marketing nonsense for the most part. The rest is also happy-face marketing BS.
So you ignored everything I wrote in the Moore's Law thread. You ignored everything I wrote in the ride sharing thread. Then you declared yourself right and continued to post BS than I just linked to data showing that you are wrong. Nice debate tactic. What's it like living in fantasy land Pstarr?

pstarr wrote:Nope.I was talking about the modern European countries whose consumption crashed after 2008. Like Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, etc etc. You referred EuroAsia or something. Really?
Nope. Europe only. Oil consumption is lower in Europe now then back then. Of course you just ignore facts you don't like so I'd be surprised if you even bothered to respond to real facts instead of pstarr imaginary bullshit:

Europe Petroleum Consumption
1980 16,058,000 bpd
2013 14,233,000 bpd
International Energy Statistics

pstarr wrote:According to IEA it is nowhere near where it supposed to be. It declined from all the rosy projections.
No one can predict the future. I am talking about you making up bullshit on the past & present.

pstarr wrote:I don't get mad. I just ignore you
Of course. Can't let reality penetrate that fantasy land narrative you live in.
Last edited by kublikhan on Sun 11 Sep 2016, 18:14:30, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 11 Sep 2016, 18:09:45

pstarr wrote:Did a search on SumYunGai. Can't find him anywhere except at this site . . . where he is much appreciated. Here's hoping he isn't banned. I know you cornies are working on it.
SumYunGai is Whatever aka Futilitist. He had to change is name because his Whatever name got banned.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby SumYunGai » Sun 11 Sep 2016, 20:05:40

pstarr wrote:Did a search on SumYunGai. Can't find him anywhere except at this site . . . where he is much appreciated. Here's hoping he isn't banned. I know you cornies are working on it.

It really makes no sense to ban me. I just had a comment nominated for post of the year!

regardingpo wrote:
SumYunGai wrote:Ennui might not have much to contribute, but that hasn't stopped him from putting up some pretty impressive numbers lately. What he lacks in quality, he now makes up for in shear quantity of posts.

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This site is currently experiencing an ennui glut! Hopefully 34 posts in one day will constitute the all time peak. I wonder what caused ennui's production numbers to suddenly spike so uncontrollably?


Post of the year! It's just too funny whichever way I look at it.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 11 Sep 2016, 21:10:33

It really makes no sense to ban me. I just had a comment nominated for post of the year!


not that I give a crap about this but it seems to me by all evidence standing you have already been banned in a previous life?

I leave this to the mods.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 11 Sep 2016, 21:16:52

And yet <> forever?
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 11 Sep 2016, 23:45:39

kublikhan wrote:1. You claimed computing progress has come to a end just because die shrinks take longer than 2 years. Bullshit.
2. You claimed Europe's long term fuel consumption decline begane in 2008. Bullshit.
3. You claimed the oil glut is "just a few barrels" Bullshit.
4. You specifically asked me to supply data on China's oil imports because you thought I was making up bullshit when I said they import more net oil than the US does. When I supplied the data, you shut up real fast.
5. You claimed oil demand all over the world is in decline. Bullshit.

And that's just some of the recent bullshit I called you out on. You are constantly posting bullshit on this site. Then you get mad when I call you out on it. Perhaps you should look in the mirror before accusing someone of posting bullshit.


Nice to know I'm not the only one who knows that PStarr is wrong on the internet.
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Re: Oil Prices Will Never Recover Pt. 3

Unread postby Observerbrb » Mon 12 Sep 2016, 10:01:39

ennui2 wrote:
The reason some people can't accept it that some people can't let go of the clarion calls of doom before the fall of 2008.

ETP provides an apologia for this. It's an implausible one, but it's all these people have to hang their hat on.

Now, if they would just CAPITULATE to us being in a supply glut, then we could let go of the past and move forward once and for all. But no, that would be too humiliating.


You're completely wrong on this one. In fact, as I have explained several times, I thought that PO was "decades ahead" of us, and it could be an issue in decades, as well. I thought that we were going to experience a plateau. I was wrong, I don't have problems to admit it... the problem is occurring in front of everyone's eyes, and we are not going to experience a plateau.

I was so, so wrong, that I could have not even imagined that we could experience this problem in late 2010's.

Steve Ludlum's explanation makes complete sense to me, and so far I have not considered other options to be feasible. I try to use my logic, and so far, I have been right ("Oil prices have not recovered"). Why should I change my views if I'm right as of today?
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