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rockdoc123 wrote:There is some good background information on how this story played out written by the author of the scientific review that caused the government to make this decision. He however claims to have made a fortune as a property developer.
(Coastal Resource Commission: CRC) selected a 20± member “science panel”
Dr. Margery Overton, Chair Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering, N.C. State University
Mr. Steven Benton N.C. Division of Coastal Management (retired), Raleigh
Mr. William Birkemeier Field Research Facility, ERDC/CHL, US Army Corps of Engineers
Dr. William Cleary Center for Marine Science, University of North Carolina at Wilmington
Mr. Tom Jarrett, P.E. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Retired), Wilmington
Dr. David John Mallinson Department of Geological Sciences, East Carolina University
Dr. Charles "Pete" Peterson Institute of Marine Sciences, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Dr. Stanley R. Riggs Department of Geological Sciences, East Carolina University
Dr. Antonio B. Rodriguez Institute of Marine Sciences, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Mr. Spencer Rogers North Carolina Sea Grant, Wilmington
Dr. Elizabeth Judge Sciaudone, P.E. N.C. State University, Raleigh
Dr. Gregory Williams, P.E. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Wilmington
Dr. Robert S. Young Department of Geosciences, Western Carolina University
Every known scienetific method?“There is one scientist who knows more about sea levels than anyone else in
the world it is the Swedish geologist and physicist Nils-Axel Mörner, formerly
chairman of the INQUA International Commission on Sea Level Change. And
the uncompromising verdict of Dr Mörner, who for 35 years has been
using every known scientific method to study sea levels all over the globe, is
that all this talk about the sea rising is nothing but a colossal scare story.
“Despite fluctuations down as well as up, ‘the sea is not rising,’ he says. "’t
hasn't risen in 50 years.’ If there is any rise this century it will ‘not be more
than 10cm (four inches), with an uncertainty of plus or minus 10cm’. And
quite apart from examining the hard evidence, he says, the elementary laws of
physics (latent heat needed to melt ice) tell us that the apocalypse conjured
up by Al Gore and Co could not possibly come about.
Same old tired names, same old tired games.
rockdoc123 wrote:Same old tired names, same old tired games.
didn't bother to read any of it other than the names did you?
Multi-century sea-level records and climate models
indicate an acceleration of sea-level rise, but no 20th
century acceleration has previously been detected. A
reconstruction of global sea level using tide-gauge data
from 1950 to 2000 indicates a larger rate of rise after 1993
and other periods of rapid sea-level rise but no significant
acceleration over this period. Here, we extend the
reconstruction of global mean sea level back to 1870 and
find a sea-level rise from January 1870 to December 2004
of 195 mm, a 20th century rate of sea-level rise of 1.7 ±
0.3 mm yr 1 and a significant acceleration of sea-level rise
of 0.013 ± 0.006 mm yr 2. This acceleration is an important
confirmation of climate change simulations which show an
acceleration not previously observed. If this acceleration
remained constant then the 1990 to 2100 rise would range
from 280 to 340 mm, consistent with projections in the
IPCC TAR. Citation: Church, J. A., and N. J. White (2006), A
20th century acceleration in global sea-level rise, Geophys. Res.
Lett., 33, L01602, doi:10.1029/2005GL024826.
500 odd sites. Perhaps it is wrong, but it is very well supported in the literature and with multiple independent lines of evidence that sea level rise is greater than 1mm per year, that the general mainstream view is acceptable and that by increasing the longwave radiation that is returned to the surface by the atmosphere, this will increase the surface warming and there will be more ice melting.
You want to defend that lot, fine by me. I am not averse to calling out the cranks on the global warming side.
For Morner to be right either a global conspiracy of scientists from various different agencies are colluding to fabricate data, while on the ground other scientists are fabricating tide gauges and the like.
Or a long line of unlikely mistakes on various satellite systems just happens to be the same mistakes as various readings form the surface. For example JASON-1 has two different means of calculating its altitude, GPS and surface laser altimeter.
People will jump on GPS and claim it only offers accuracy of a few meters. This is true for a single reading over minutes. But over years it can accumulate a huge number of readings and use the same algorithms make incredibly accurate readings. To be fair as the satellite moves its altitude will vary as the surface of the earth changes shape and the gravity is not consistent but they have a long time and hundreds of millions of readings to take.
So the claim is that different methodologies on different satellites over a decade and a half have coincidently brought the same error that a whole other set of methods and methodological errors have created.
Either that or Morner is a crank. I leave the reader to their opinions on the matter.
Our best estimate (for 2100) is +5 cm ±1.5 cm, and that is nothing to worry about
Our analyses do not indicate acceleration in sea level in U.S. tide gauge records during the 20th century. Instead, for each time period we consider, the records show small decelerations that are consistent with a number of earlier studies of worldwide-gauge records. The decelerations that we obtain are opposite in sign and one to two orders of magnitude less than the +0.07 to +0.28 mm/y2 accelerations that are required to reach sea levels predicted for 2100 by Vermeer and Rahmsdorf (2009), Jevrejeva, Moore, and Grinsted (2010), and Grinsted, Moore, and Jevrejeva (2010). Bindoff et al. (2007) note an increase in worldwide temperature from 1906 to 2005 of 0.74uC. It is essential that investigations continue to address why this worldwide-temperature increase has not produced acceleration of global sea level over the past 100 years, and indeed why global sea level has possibly decelerated for at least the last 80 years
Chief wrote:When they can predict the weather at my house next week I'll believe them when they say the sea level will rise 3 feet by 2100.
In one US state, it is now illegal for sea level rise to speed up. Although climate models predict that sea level rise will accelerate over the coming decades, North Carolina's state senate has passed a bill saying that its Division of Coastal Management cannot "include scenarios of accelerated rates of sea level rise".
The lobby group supporting the bill, NC-20, has released a number of statements arguing that "the point of the bill is to conform rulemaking to actual scientific evidence". It says there is no indication that sea level rise has accelerated over the last few decades.
New Scientist looks at the evidence.
Are sea levels rising?
This is an easy one: yes. Levels have been rising since at least the middle of the 19th century, and over the 20th century they rose on average 1.7 millimetres per year. The rise was first reported in 1941 by oceanographer Beno Gutenberg.
Two sources of data confirm this: tide gauges and satellites. The data from tide gauges goes back more than 100 years, though it becomes increasingly patchy the further back you look. Satellites with altimeters only came online around 20 years ago, but unlike tide gauges, which are limited to coastlines, they cover much of the ocean.
Much of the rise is caused by water expanding as it warms up. Melting glaciers and crumbling ice sheets are also contributing, as is humanity's overuse of groundwater.
Is sea level rise accelerating?
Its the same as claiming that if someone cannot predict the exact roll of a single die, then it is impossible to predict the long term average of hundreds of rolls. You will fit in well.
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