North American Fuel Shortage Reports

[shortonoil]

the48thronin said:

Hurricane Ike has caused severe supply disruptions to various regions of the U.S., most notably the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Refineries in the Gulf region are in the process of restoring power, making repairs, and resuming production. Most oil industry experts expect fuel supply "tightness" for the next week or so.

We know that the Gulf refineries have lost over 70 mb of production since Gustav hit. We know that both the Continental and the Plantation have been running at 60% capacity or less since the hurricane. We know that there are extreme shortages cropping up all over the South East.

We get, “Most oil industry experts expect fuel supply "tightness" for the next week or so.”. Am I the only one who is sick of having their intelligence insulted? It is much more likely that we are headed for a catastrophe than a “tightness”!

If people die from lack of preparation because of information that they withheld; that sure looks like criminal neglect and should be prosecuted accordingly when the time comes.

[MacG]

Over here in Europe, we see the lowest gasoline prices in four months. And no hiccup in supplies anywhere. Guess that the IEA-mechanisms has not kicked in for some reason. Someone somewhere has decided to let the US sink. Might not be a conscious decision, more like "let the chips fall where they like".

[Byron100]

I honestly can't wait for the pumps to go 100% dry, just to see what would happen around here. Maybe the media will go into freak-out mode and send everybody into a feeding frenzy. "Gotta have gas, gotta have it now!"

At least I'll be able to get around by bus and train, and I have a bike, and my own two feet...heck, what do I need to get gas for anyhow...hehe.

[bl00k]

We get, “Most oil industry experts expect fuel supply "tightness" for the next week or so.”. Am I the only one who is sick of having their intelligence insulted? It is much more likely that we are headed for a catastrophe than a “tightness”!

If people die from lack of preparation because of information that they withheld; that sure looks like criminal neglect and should be prosecuted accordingly when the time comes.

shortonoil, i completey agree. But you probably already know that the policy is to not warn people of serious issues and instead make them fear enemies or dangers that don't exist.

[harrybuckman]

I honestly can't wait for the pumps to go 100% dry, just to see what would happen around here.

The media wouldn't report it until there were riots in the streets. Once they did report it, the blame would be placed on "panic buying "that ran all the pumps dry. It had nothing to do with a production loss cause by the hurricanes, the hurricanes missed, no damage.

I absolutely love how the US government manipulated the media and everything else they could to lower the price of oil. Only they forgot that many of the larger investment companies were holding lots of oil futures, hedges etc. In turn they just about dumped all of Wall Street and ended up blaming it on the "Mortgage Crisis".

I am I the only one who saw this play out?

[DantesPeak]

Many in Georgia report gasoline is hard to find. As we have been saying, this goes back directly to low supplies in the Colonial Pipeline:

Gas Hard To Find In Metro Atlanta
Updated 9/21/2008 6:26:25 PM

ATLANTA -- It has been a little over a week since Hurricane Ike forced the closure of oil refineries along the Gulf of Mexico and gasoline production has not yet fully rebounded, but officials say it is getting there.

In AAA Auto Club South's weekly fuel report, they noted that supply is thin in certain areas across the Southeast, but that the supply is improving daily. The shortage led to higher than normal gas prices over the past week, but that is forecasted to decline as supply is expected to increase this week.

"The gasoline supply situation is improving, but it's like trying to turn a huge ship. It just takes time," said Randy Bly, Director of Community Relations for AAA Auto Club South.

Despite the news, some residents have said they are considering taking Monday because they just could not find a gas station with any fuel. Other motorists waited in long lines that stretched to the street at the few stations they found to still have gas.

Officials said they wanted to stress to the communities that no one should be hording gasoline. Cars should only be refilled when they are close to empty and drivers should not top off tanks when they are half full or more. They stressed that more gasoline is on the way.

The Colonial Pipeline, the nation's largest, is the major source of gasoline in Georgia. The Alpharetta-based company said they usually carry an average of 100 million gallons of gasoline and other refined petroleum everyday, but they are not at that capacity yet due to a lack of supply from the refineries.

WXIA-TV, GA

[the48thronin]

Only they forgot that many of the larger investment companies were holding lots of oil futures, hedges etc. In turn they just about dumped all of Wall Street and ended up blaming it on the "Mortgage Crisis".

I am I the only one who saw this play out?

Consider for a moment how they used FEAR and envy to shut off the contracts to fill the SR..( so the contractor who was getting $42 a barrel didn't have to buy at 145$ a barrel to supply the contract.

Consider that 'someone" was locking in crude from Mexico etc at $145 a barrel LONG TERM, Would you like to be in their shoes today?

Consider that most of the AIRLINES locked in long term JP4 at just about the PEAK of the price rise. (guess what that is doing to their bottom lines now and who is gonna get rich supplying at todays JP4 prices.

Consider how well the government runs any enterprise, NOW they are gonna run the markets MMF and banks.

Where is my wooden pitchfork and torch anyway? I may need them soon!

[shortonoil]

Yesterday there was some discussion that the gasoline that is appearing is coming from retail storage. I did some research to investagate if that was possible.

According to the Dept of Commerce there are 117,100 gas stations in the US. The average station has 3.3 tanks which average 8,000 gallons apiece. Some are older smaller tanks and some are newer 10,000 gallon tanks.

Pro-rating by population to exclude the 13 Western States, there are 90,870 stations east of the Mississippi and Texas. Their total storage is 57.1 mb. Assuming that the average tank is half full at any moment, gives 28.6 mb of gasoline in retail storage.

We know that US refinery production has lost at least 70 million barrels since Gustav landed. 56% of that is gasoline giving a loss of 39.2 mb of gasoline.

If every gas station in the East was pumped completely dry, and the EIA did not include that in their weekly report, the EIA inventory would show a decline of 10.6 mb. Of course, every station in the East is not dry, at least not yet!

If the EIA did include retail storage the inventory would now be down 39.2 mb. 39.2 mb did not come from 28.6 mb of retail storage.

InfoPlease
Wikipedia
Department of Commerce

[ReverseEngineer]

You can be assured, TravelCenters of America is working around the clock to keep our customers and our locations supplied through this difficult time. Currently, we are running abnormally high volumes due to high traffic and competitive supply outages. Fuel deliveries are being drawn from a wide range of states into these affected areas to minimize supply disruptions. Any and all resources are being utilized to maintain all of our locations remain "wet".

Well, that about does it. TA is going dry, obviously.

Far as the military is concerned to try to control the panic that will ensue here, they do not have all that much gas stored up on the local National Guard base EITHER.

This is bad. Very bad.

Reverse Engineer

[Byron100]

You can be assured, TravelCenters of America is working around the clock to keep our customers and our locations supplied through this difficult time. Currently, we are running abnormally high volumes due to high traffic and competitive supply outages. Fuel deliveries are being drawn from a wide range of states into these affected areas to minimize supply disruptions. Any and all resources are being utilized to maintain all of our locations remain "wet".

Well, that about does it. TA is going dry, obviously.

Far as the military is concerned to try to control the panic that will ensue here, they do not have all that much gas stored up on the local National Guard base EITHER.

This is bad. Very bad.

Reverse Engineer

I know you like your doom, but I honestly don't think it'll be that bad. Sure, finding gas is a pain, and will be so for a couple more weeks. Some folks might call in sick to work, because they can't get gas. Some folks might even take the bus to work ( !).

Meanwhile, I've got 7/8ths of a tank, and I'm not worried a bit about being able to get gas, as my next fill-up won't be until about the 2nd week of October.

But rest assured, if I see riots or empty grocery store shelves (or even some long lines I happen to come across in my 'hood), I'll be more than happy to post visual evidence right here on this thread for ya'll.

[Tanada]

Yesterday there was some discussion that the gasoline that is appearing is coming from retail storage. I did some research to investagate if that was possible.

According to the Dept of Commerce there are 117,100 gas stations in the US. The average station has 3.3 tanks which average 8,000 gallons apiece. Some are older smaller tanks and some are newer 10,000 gallon tanks.

Pro-rating by population to exclude the 13 Western States, there are 90,870 stations east of the Mississippi and Texas. Their total storage is 57.1 mb. Assuming that the average tank is half full at any moment, gives 28.6 mb of gasoline in retail storage.

We know that US refinery production has lost at least 70 million barrels since Gustav landed. 56% of that is gasoline giving a loss of 39.2 mb of gasoline.

If every gas station in the East was pumped completely dry, and the EIA did not include that in their weekly report, the EIA inventory would show a decline of 10.6 mb. Of course, every station in the East is not dry, at least not yet!

If the EIA did include retail storage the inventory would now be down 39.2 mb. 39.2 mb did not come from 28.6 mb of retail storage.

Thank you for looking into this issue more deeply. I beleive that, given the numbers you found, the only answer to what has been happening is self evident, the retail storage was somewhat more than half full when the refineries started having shutdowns. We know that gasoline is still being sold, we know it isn't being produced as fast as it is being sold. QED gasoline is coming out of storage somewhere, somehow. If we are down 39.2 by subtracting demand from production then virtually all of that had to come from retail storage. No doubt some gasoline was in storage at refineries, but I doubt that there was (39.2-29.6)= 9.6 million bbl there.

So if retail storage was between 57 (max) and 28 (half) the question remains, where in that top half was it? As you pointed out, a lot of stations have run dry, but not nearly all of them.

Anyone know how the damage in Texas is impacting fuel consumption? If your workplace is without power you are probably temporary laid off and not commuting to work, stuff like that has a negative effect upon demand. How much though?

Also something to keep in mind, once people have topped off their tanks recently, even if they keep topping it off daily they are drawing less than they would on a normal fillup. In effect the retail storage is moved to the vehicle storage, but it still hasn't been burned so it doesn't have to be replaced yet (from the consumer POV). For people arriving at a station with a low fuel light on it is a pain to find an open station, for the average consumer with 7/8ths of a tank its not such a big deal if the station they usually buy at is dry today.

I don't commute far to work for the last 11 years so I don't have an emotional feel for it, but if there are 200,000,000 people commuting to work every day using 9.7 M/bbl/d (Usage thread) that works out to just 2 gallons/person/day on average. If not all the stations are dry and 50 million of those commuters is buying 4 gallons every other day it won't show a whole lot in the totals even though the exact same ammount is being consumed taken over the long term. All TPTB have to do is make sure that one gasoline filling station per every X number of people has gasoline availible and they can keep playing whack-a-mole for quite a while.

If I were low on gas and I passed several stations that were dry I would make dang sure I topped my tank when I found a station with fuel for sale, but driving around the rest of the week I wouldn't run back every day to buy a gallon or three at a time, it is just not convenient to do that. I would however not be so blase' about letting my tank get low enough to turn the low fuel light on, I might start topping up every half tank or so for a while, until I stopped seeing stations bagged for lack of fuel.

I am glad that with careful driving and eliminating unessecery trips I can make a tank last three weeks easily.

[frankthetank]

Gas actually dropped again.

Any idea if this is just to calm the masses... Show the people that gas is going down and to move along, don't fill up now...wait! A person doesn't know what to think anymore.

[DantesPeak]

Gas actually dropped again.

Any idea if this is just to calm the masses... Show the people that gas is going down and to move along, don't fill up now...wait! A person doesn't know what to think anymore.

This is very speculative, but if the gasoline futures contract was shorted by those attempting to knock down the price, they would have to cover their shorts by month end - or make delivery in early October.

It's also possible those shorting have another incentive besides profits here, so they could just buy available gasoline in the cash market in October at whatever price the market will bear - and take the loss. That way, their transaction price is not reported on the futures exchange.

Then the price to the consumer stays low, with essentially the mystery short seller subsidizing the difference by the realized loss.

Please note I have no proof and this is just a theory.

[GoghGoner]

Parts of Ohio and Kentucky and Arkansas and ... were shut down because of damage from Ike. I read a story a few days ago that Knoxville had 40 tank trucks (9k barrels of gasoline) arrive from somewhere else. My first thought was Ohio. Now, that things are mostly up and running in Ohio this will not be possible.

Blending components are added to make finished gasoline either at the refineries or at the distributors. Maybe they are adding more Ethanol and those stocks are dropping. There was probably 10 million barrels available for this. Just have to have someone check their mpg, if it is less than that's the ticket

[DantesPeak]

Parts of Ohio and Kentucky and Arkansas and ... were shut down because of damage from Ike. I read a story a few days ago that Knoxville had 40 tank trucks (9k barrels of gasoline) arrive from somewhere else. My first thought was Ohio. Now, that things are mostly up and running in Ohio this will not be possible.

Blending components are added to make finished gasoline either at the refineries or at the distributors. Maybe they are adding more Ethanol and those stocks are dropping. There was probably 10 million barrels available for this. Just have to have someone check their mpg, if it is less than that's the ticket

I am not an expert on this, but the EPA waiver allows for the RVP to be increased (see letter below). This might be done by adding more ethanol.

On the other hand, it's my understanding that states with waivers could also use less ethanol than usual - if they have an alternative blending component.

EPA waiver letter for Ohio - PDF

[the48thronin]

I know you like your doom, but I honestly don't think it'll be that bad. Sure, finding gas is a pain, and will be so for a couple more weeks. Some folks might call in sick to work, because they can't get gas. Some folks might even take the bus to work ( !).

Meanwhile, I've got 7/8ths of a tank, and I'm not worried a bit about being able to get gas, as my next fill-up won't be until about the 2nd week of October.

But rest assured, if I see riots or empty grocery store shelves (or even some long lines I happen to come across in my 'hood), I'll be more than happy to post visual evidence right here on this thread for ya'll.

I guess you might not understand why I bothered to report the T A numbers, so let's add a few details from my own operation. ( last weeks numbers will do.)

Last week I spent the entire week on the ONE LOAD.. ( I am still on it for 2 more days) starting in Los Angeles, Ca ending in Miami, Fl.

Last week I did (Sunday to Saturday night) Joplin MO to Hempstead, NY to Mt laurel, NJ to West Chester, PA to West Palm Beach, Fl to Ft Pierce, Fl. A slightly less than typical week for a single driver in a long haul truck. I spent one day "visiting" with my wife in Bordentown NJ, and 1 day resting in place to reset my logs here in Ft Pierce.

I fueled up 5 times averaging 130 gallons each time ( 1/2 tank to full).

I did travel about 350 miles above the minimum required because I managed to find a small load to add into my trailer from PA to Florida that added $2000 to my income this week.

I can buy fuel at any truck stop unlike many company drivers who will travel 3500 miles in an average week but are limited to fueling stops by brand chosen by their company.

TCA ( travel Centers Of America) is one of the largest chains, But even so there are usually only 1 or 2 in any state on your route if you are traveling through the state. They usually have 10 to 20 fueling lanes at each stop. To imagine the effect on distribution of even one "out of fuel" truck stop because of the number of drivers who will have to either divert to another stop, or wait for fuel to be delivered is not difficult. Looking at web sites today I found all the major chains low or out of fuel in similar areas.

I am sitting here in Ft Pierce, Fl ( where I decided to top off my tanks after hearing of the number of trucks "limited" to 50 gallons per day per truck in Ga on their way here.) That gives me a 1200 mile range to extremely empty... 1400 to stopped in the road empty.

My plans are to move 104 miles first thing Monday followed by 340 miles Monday night, 340 miles Tuesday and then sit to load Wednesday going to lower Alabama ( about 350 miles by Thursday) Because I have not yet booked the load after that, I have to assume 360 degrees travel from there in my planning.

If fuel is short in the south East, I will obviously refill the tank Tuesday night ( about 130 gallons) and will be sitting at the casino Wednesday night waiting to unload Thursday morning at about 1/2 tank. ( or if necessary refuel again in Marianna, Fl as I pass through Wednesday night and be sitting Thursday 7/8th full.)

The closest TA truck stops will then be Grand Bay, Al (94 miles),
Montgomery, Al (100 miles) Russell, Ms (about 190 miles) and Marianna, Fl (150 miles) ( that takes care of the 4 compass points.)

Should I be routed by my next destination past any of those and they are out of fuel, the next TA would be about 200 miles further on.

My point ( keeping in mind I am one truck in a steady stream of passing trucks) is that the just in time world demands that no truck can run late much less come to a stop to await fuel availability.

30 percent of all manufacturing assembly lines ( big or small) will close after one day with one late truck delivery. Retail food distribution centers use inbound loads as "inventory for tomorrows loads to sale point. One day without inbound trucks and they will experience outages of some items.

Most of my deliveries are "meet the crew who flew in to install your load" if I am late people are out of work that day instantly, and jobs start getting behind for hundreds of others who are on tight schedules.

Metropolitan NY has a weeks supply of food on hand. Not produce.... FOOD. Metropolitan Atlanta and almost every other large metropolis less than 7 days supply.

Retail fuel has reserves all along the supply chain to avoid outages. Tank farms at pipelines, jobbers etc. Retail foods have ONE reserve.. the local distribution center ONE for each brand of store ( and the loaded trailers inbound/outbound in transit). BUT those distribution centers may serve a region as big as 1/2 a state in the east, state wide in the west..

I myself am no longer in retail distribution... I am an industrial moving van. I bring the store not the items for sale in it. ( I bring the restaurant stainless steal not the food that will be cooked and served from it). I was at one time in the distribution food chain and I know it well. An OUTAGE of fuel will reach outage of goods in very short time frame.

Consider the Houston lessons being learned this week about fuel production and distribution, The next lesson you might watch being learned is about the food distribution network. It is not the end of the world as we know it if trucks start running out of fuel, but it won't be pretty.

first edit to clarify a point, second to correct spelling LOL

[FloridaGirl]

A friend of mine here in Florida said that recently, her husband's motorcycle wouldn't idle properly. It kept sputtering and dying. So he took it to the shop and they it was the gas so they just needed to clean the carb. The shop said a lot of motorcycles have been in recently with that problem.

So I'm wondering if the problem is due to the fuel waiver allowing less than optimal fuel to be supplied.


Oh, and CNN is now admitting that the fuel shortages are related to the hurricanes. Maybe it is getting too obvious to deny.

[DantesPeak]

A friend of mine here in Florida said that recently, her husband's motorcycle wouldn't idle properly. It kept sputtering and dying. So he took it to the shop and they it was the gas so they just needed to clean the carb. The shop said a lot of motorcycles have been in recently with that problem.

So I'm wondering if the problem is due to the fuel waiver allowing less than optimal fuel to be supplied.


Oh, and CNN is now admitting that the fuel shortages are related to the hurricanes. Maybe it is getting too obvious to deny.

I believe there is some kind of Presidential decree also temporarily in effect that allows foreign gasoline to be sold, although that gasoline probably won't hit US harbors until next week.

Again I am not an expert on this, but if the weather was very hot using the replacement gasoline with higher RVP could cause engine problems.

[DantesPeak]

U.S. Still Suffering from Gas Shortages

September 22, 2008

NEW YORK -- With an estimated 20 percent of the nation’s refinery capacity on hold due to Hurricane Ike, retailers located in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions not affiliated with major gas bands are experiencing gas shortages.

A number of c-store chains with unbranded fuel, including Altoona, Pa.-based Sheetz Inc., are refusing to pay inflated wholesale prices that are in some cases $1 higher than those charged to branded affiliates, reported USA Today. "It’s an unfounded price point [oil companies] were putting on it," executive vice president of marketing, Louie Sheetz, told the paper. "They said, ‘How bad do you want it?’ I said, ‘Not that bad.’"

Michael Fields, head of the South Carolina Petroleum Marketers Association, told USA Today while premium gasoline is especially scarce, most stations are having trouble supplying regular gas.

Nearly half of Mapco’s 500 stations in the Southeast had no gasoline after Ike hit, company spokeswoman, Paula Lovell, told the paper. She noted slight supply increases were realized on Wednesday.

CS News

[the48thronin]

whew... I was afraid it was my opus length responses,,,LOL

thanks