North American Fuel Shortage Reports

[lawnchair]

We don't seem to have any board locals up that way (though I do have inlaws a few miles from the proposed Elk Point refinery). However, I am heading to Winnipeg over the next couple days, keeping the tank above half and carrying a gas can. I'll post if it's interesting. I'm quite surprised that this hasn't shown up at all in the gasbuddy prices through the region. I know that both Dakota governors made a point of prosecuting 'gougers' from the days after 9/11. Might be a connection.

[FairMaiden]

Of course the entire process depends on Albertan natural gas, which is officially in decline now.

Alberta has plans to build a nuclear station specifically for the tar sands operations.

Even more important, the Alberta gave the oil companies "carte blanche" access to fresh water in Alberta. The amount of water being required is 2x the amount originally estimated. I think the limiting resource here might actually be water before nat gas.

Of course, they STILL haven't figured out what they are going to do with the black toxic lakes they are creating as by-product from this process. Right now, its just sitting there with shooting fireworks off its borders to keep wildlife from being sucked into it.

[DantesPeak]

From Minnesota (where the governor has already waived some tanker driver rules):

Gas shortages hit storage facilities
Refinery calamities, increased maintenance crimp supplies

Shortages of gasoline at regional bulk storage facilities, including Williams Pipeline in Mankato, are causing headaches and long hours for tanker truck drivers who have to chase to nearby states to supply local gas stations.

The situation has become dire enough that the governors of Minnesota and the Dakotas issued emergency orders allowing commercial truck drivers hauling fuel to drive more hours than they normally can.

“The shortfalls in supplies are due to lower volumes of gas coming from regional refineries,” said Bruce Heine of Magellan Pipeline, the Tulsa-based gas distributor that owns Williams and four other terminals in Minnesota.

“We’re just one hurricane away from the five state area having no gas supply. The last time the hurricanes hit the Gulf, we had a lot of supply up here and we still had a bad time. Now, we don’t have any supply so we’d really have a problem.”

Mankato Free Press

In North Dakota:

Shortage fuel for concern
Benny Polacca, The Forum
Published Wednesday, July 04, 2007

Motorists are feeling the effect of fuel shortages at pipeline terminals across the nation: higher prices and tighter supplies at service stations.

“There’s too many variables to find out where gas prices will move,” LaDoucer said. Factors include higher consumer demands during weekends and holidays, the cost of shipping gas to service stations and burdens on refinery operations.

“It’s definitely a concern,” Mike Rud, president of the North Dakota Petroleum Marketers Association, said of recent gas shortages. “We haven’t seen this type of crisis in a long while.”

Rud said Tuesday the Magellan pipeline terminal in West Fargo is out until Thursday. Once the Magellan terminal reopens, a limited number of loads – from 30 to 50 – could be available, he said.

One load of gasoline contains between 10,000 and 12,000 gallons, he said.

Terminals in Grand Forks and Jamestown in North Dakota are also suffering from closures until later this week, Rud said.

In Forum News

[pup55]

Tim Keigher, executive director of the Nebraska Petroleum

Marketers and Convenience Store Association, said there was a supply problem, mostly in the middle and western areas of the state, even before Coffeyville shut down.

Some Nebraska terminals have temporarily run out of fuel, he said, forcing retail station operators to shop around for gasoline. "It creates some panic buying," he said.

Bruce Heine, spokesman for Magellan in Tulsa, Okla., confirmed that some terminals have run out of fuel "from a few hours to a day or longer" recently, the result of other refineries being offline for maintenance or, in the case of one in Oklahoma, because of a lightning strike. Magellan supplies terminals in Omaha, Lincoln and Doniphan, Neb.

Omaha.com

[sjn]

Given the apparent shortage spreading from the midwest, can last weeks inventory build be accuarate? The weekly report numbers are based on a sample, right? Maybe like the WTI/Cushing crude build the sample is non-representative of overall levels?

[DantesPeak]

Given the apparent shortage spreading from the midwest, can last weeks inventory build be accuarate? The weekly report numbers are based on a sample, right? Maybe like the WTI/Cushing crude build the sample is non-representative of overall levels?

If you look at this link, for PADD II, you will see gasoline stocks are significantly below normal ranges in the Midwest - although not quite as bad as in May:

EIA report by PADD

This PADD II area covers quite a lot of ground. It's very possible that various areas are better or worse than average.

In May, low PADD II supplies were more or less balanced out without shortages but with very high prices. Supplies may be less balanced now for various reasons, causing shortages or near shortages in a six state area.

So yes I believe the figures are fairly accurate, but maybe only accurate to about 1% - which means a weekly change of 1 or 2 million barrels nationwide doesn't mean much.

PADD = Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts

[killJOY]

I'm trying to keep attuned here, but the thread is confusing me:

I can't find definitions of "PADD" here, nor where these districts are located. I know I've seen this before but don't feel like digging through a thousand pages to find it.

I tried going page-by-page on this thread and could find nothing.

The "pages" take far too long to "turn." It's very irritating.

Many pages go off the right margin so I have to scroll sideways.

Is there any way to make this thread more accessible?

Thanks.

[DantesPeak]

Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD): A geographic aggregation of the 50 States and the District of Columbia into five Districts, with PADD I further split into three subdistricts. The PADDs include the States listed below:

PADD I (East Coast):


PADD IA (New England): Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
PADD IB (Central Atlantic): Delaware, District of Columbia, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania.
PADD IC (Lower Atlantic): Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, and West Virginia.

PADD II (Midwest): Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Wisconsin.

PADD III (Gulf Coast): Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico, and Texas.

PADD IV (Rocky Mountain): Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Utah, and Wyoming.

PADD V (West Coast): Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, and Washington.

EIA Glossary

[killJOY]

That was quick, and thank you!

I've bookmarked the glossary for further reference.

[PeakOiler]

I can't find definitions of "PADD" here, nor where these districts are located. I know I've seen this before but don't feel like digging through a thousand pages to find it.

PADD Definition

PADD: Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts PAD District I (East Coast) is composed of the following three subdistricts: Subdistrict IA (New England): Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont. Subdistrict IB (Central Atlantic): Delaware, District of Columbia, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania. Subdistrict IC (Lower Atlantic): Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia. PAD District II (Midwest): Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Wisconsin. PAD District III (Gulf Coast): Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, New Mexico, Texas. PAD District IV (Rocky Mountain): Colorado Idaho, Montana, Utah, Wyoming. PAD District V (West Coast): Alaska, Arizona, California, Hawaii, Nevada, Oregon, Washington.

[shortonoil]

DantesPeak said:

If you look at this link, for PADD II, you will see gasoline stocks are significantly below normal ranges in the Midwest - although not quite as bad as in May:

In spite of their low inventory levels and problems at Coffeyville, we are not seeing any significant increase in the price of gasoline.

from Gassbuddy:

..........................07/04....... 07/06
Kansas City .......... 2.79........ 2.83
Wichita ................ 2.83........ 2.87
Park City .............. 2.85........ 2.87
Rapid City SD .........3.00........ 2.87

There is not much of an explanation for this except perhaps the distributors feel that they can haul enough in by truck to keep retailers supplied? I guess the question is how far they can haul, and how long it will be before the areas supplying them become deleted. Coffeyville, obviously, isn’t going to be back on line in the near future!

[firestarter]

I don't get it. In my neck of the midwestern woods gasoline has dropped to under three bucks a gallon, even with oil at near $73. It has dropped almost 70 cents in the past four weeks! Since I'm located just outside Chicago, perhaps all the available stuff is being diverted here. At any rate, the price is dropping like a stone.

[shortonoil]

firestarter said:

I don't get it. In my neck of the midwestern woods gasoline has dropped to under three bucks a gallon, even with oil at near $73. It has dropped almost 70 cents in the past four weeks! Since I'm located just outside Chicago, perhaps all the available stuff is being diverted here. At any rate, the price is dropping like a stone.

Illinois is in Pad II and the inventory situation for Pad II could best be described as dismissal, and it has been all spring. It must be very close to a shortage situation. Something or someone is keeping prices down. Why or how is the question? We might find out more as the summer progresses.

[firestarter]

Shortonoil, perhaps the Chicago area gasoline demand is dropping like a stone? This is purely anecdotal, but it does seem as if traffic is lighter this summer, especially on inbound I55 during rush hour. I do know a number of union construction workers out of work, even in the prime summer months this year. Also not as much dust along the construction corridor at Weber road. Localized, Chicago area demand destruction not accounted for in the inventory numbers a possibility?

[lawnchair]

Just back from a week-long trip up the length of Interstate 29, from the Kansas City area to Winnipeg and back and through the heart of the recent supply issues. Observations:

Prices generally in the 3.25 range. However, in Council Bluffs this afternoon, there was one station with unleaded at 2.97 and one across the street at 3.19. 2 car deep lineups at the 2.97 station. Lineups are very rare in this part of the country, and I don't think I've seen a 22 cent difference in stations before.

Local gas consumers were only dimly aware of any regional supply disruptions. It hasn't been a big news story even regionally.

Lots of gasoline tankers on the road. Definitely more than usual. Carrying gas from Omaha up to the Dakotas. Several double-units (second gas tanker on a tow dolly). Not something I've seen much before. Damn scary in a 40 mph crosswind. Probably scarier in a blizzard. Also saw at least one gasoline tanker crossing the border from Manitoba (again, unusual).

And, lots and lots of wind turbine equipment. Probably saw enough blades and mast sections to build 6 large windmills on this trip alone. The amazing ramp-up of wind energy is probably the most hopeful thing I've seen in the energy field.

[DantesPeak]

Nebraska Gas Pumps Run Dry

Governor Declares State Of Emergency Related To Fuel

OMAHA, Neb. -- Truckers spent more than an hour waiting to fill up with fuel for delivery as some gas pumps ran dry across the state on Wednesday.

Nebraska's governor has issued an executive order that will allow gasoline truck drivers to alter their hours of service.

Gov. Dave Heineman's executive order said that supplies are unusually tight, so he is waiving Nebraska Revised Statute 75-363, which deals with the hours truck drivers can stay on the state's road before they are required to take a break.

Heineman's order said fuel haulers are "experiencing much longer time waiting in supply lines at all available terminals, and the extra time is creating hardship for gasoline and diesel fuel supply."

KETV

link includes interesting video

[shortonoil]

DantesPeak said:

Nebraska Gas Pumps Run Dry

I bet, if we had taken a poll last year, on where the first shortages would appear, no one would have guessed Omaha, Nebraska. Peak Oil is going to have some strange and unpredictable consequences.

[Cobra_Strike]

Odd though, if it were not for this site...I would not know about shortages in Nebraska at all.

[AirlinePilot]

Odd though, if it were not for this site...I would not know about shortages in Nebraska at all.

Your not the only one Cobra. I'm guessing most of the rest of this country and the world doesnt know either. Interesting.