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Nobody can answer this simple question about Global Warming

Re: Nobody can answer this simple question about Global Warm

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 00:31:30

Soooo, it turns out that lots and lots of folks can answer not only 'this simple question,' but many many other questions about GW very well and with much support from current science.

So can we now stop bumping this stupid thread with its stupid, misleading title??

Thanks... :)
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Re: Nobody can answer this simple question about Global Warm

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 05:55:30

Some more points to consider are the forcing factor that emissions have and ocean heat content.
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: Nobody can answer this simple question about Global Warm

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 10:34:15

dohboi wrote:Soooo, it turns out that lots and lots of folks can answer not only 'this simple question,' but many many other questions about GW very well and with much support from current science.

So can we now stop bumping this stupid thread with its stupid, misleading title??

Thanks... :)


Why would folks stop participating? You can't even get a decent conversation going about the real threats to humanity if you have a true believer of any ONE of the possible dooms we face in the house, because they want to shut down conversations that aren't about their favorite.

Here is the question for enthusiasts of only global warming theories....and it exposes how faith based they are when it comes to viewing the future of our species.

Let us examine two completely reasonable futures, from a "global warming uber alles" perspective.

Would this GWUA person choose, A) to have the entire world dedicated to saving us from a known and calculable known risk, a risk with precedent, a risk that would destroy the species in an eyeblink, but to save the species we would need to enslave nearly all of it, killing off a majority along the way due to the nature of the work and lack of resources for get us all to the end, while mining and extracting every resource the planet holds, and in the end, when the threat has been stopped, the species would be alive (even if more than half the members aren't), on a planet rendered nearly unrecognizable (but livable) in its successful attempt to save itself and its apex predator species, or B) the entire planet happily converts to Amish nirvana tomorrow afternoon, emitting no more CO2 than their breath, happily living together for some period of time...before A) happens and destroys the entire species.

There are dangers in this universe, and it is nothing but human hubris to think that anyone's particular favorite is THE highest priority problem. Holy cow people, you would think we would be smart enough to learn something from what happened to the dinosaurs.
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Re: Nobody can answer this simple question about Global Warm

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 10:39:35

GHung wrote:
onlooker wrote:Well we know roughly the amount of CO2 we have spewed since the beginning of the Industrial age and we know roughly how much extra CO2 is in atmosphere since the baseline years of the advent of the Industrial age.
From that scientists can estimate the extra heat forcing the additional CO2 has had
So scientists say we are largely responsible for the extra warming and thus will be for the warming feedbacks it has triggered


That one is easy. Simply invalidate the scientists. What good are people we don't understand anyway?


The scientists are the ones who led to polarization in this regard...polarization first if you believe the words they wrote back in the 1970's (them scientists being so much smarter than regular folks, them dummies who needed to listen to them smart folks) and later politicization as they naturally fell into the us versus them meme that American politics has become.
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Re: Nobody can answer this simple question about Global Warm

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 12:04:22

AdamB wrote:
The scientists are the ones who led to polarization in this regard...


Don't be silly. The scientists are simply reporting on real-world data and their interpretation of those scientific facts. Thats their job.

Science is inherently not political. Both the right and left try to politicize science but science itself has no political bias.

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Scientific data is humankind's attempt to understand the reality of the natural universe. Reality is not political.

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Re: Nobody can answer this simple question about Global Warm

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 12:09:08

Well, I for one believe the scientists and science and not crackpot theories and canards put out by politized entities
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Re: Nobody can answer this simple question about Global Warm

Unread postby GHung » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 12:19:31

AdamB said; "The scientists are the ones who led to polarization in this regard..."

Sort of like saying; "The football players disrespected the flag", or any other silly statement painting with an all-encompassing brush. While some scientists forwarded theories of global cooling, that was a minority. And blaming everyone in any group for the failures of a subset of that group is simply childish.

Scientists increasingly predict warming, 1970s

In the early 1970s, evidence that aerosols were increasing worldwide encouraged Reid Bryson and some others to warn of the possibility of severe cooling. Meanwhile, the new evidence that the timing of ice ages was set by predictable orbital cycles suggested that the climate would gradually cool, over thousands of years. For the century ahead, however, a survey of the scientific literature from 1965 to 1979 found 7 articles predicting cooling and 44 predicting warming (many other articles on climate made no prediction); the warming articles were cited much more often in subsequent scientific literature.[33] Several scientific panels from this time period concluded that more research was needed to determine whether warming or cooling was likely, indicating that the trend in the scientific literature had not yet become a consensus.[34][35][36]

John Sawyer published the study Man-made Carbon Dioxide and the “Greenhouse” Effect in 1972.[37] He summarized the knowledge of the science at the time, the anthropogenic attribution of the carbon dioxide greenhouse gas, distribution and exponential rise, findings which still hold today. Additionally he accurately predicted the rate of global warming for the period between 1972 and 2000.[38][39][40]

The increase of 25% CO2 expected by the end of the century therefore corresponds to an increase of 0.6°C in the world temperature – an amount somewhat greater than the climatic variation of recent centuries. – John Sawyer, 1972

The mainstream news media at the time exaggerated the warnings of the minority who expected imminent cooling. For example, in 1975, Newsweek magazine published a story that warned of "ominous signs that the Earth's weather patterns have begun to change."[41] The article continued by stating that evidence of global cooling was so strong that meteorologists were having "a hard time keeping up with it."[41] On October 23, 2006, Newsweek issued an update stating that it had been "spectacularly wrong about the near-term future".[42]......

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_o ... g.2C_1970s

Seems that some anti-climate science assholes used a few papers suggesting global cooling (and not the vast majority that suggested global warming) in the 70s to discredit ALL climate science, and YOU FELL FOR IT!

I stand by my statements above.
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Re: Nobody can answer this simple question about Global Warm

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 13:08:50

Plantagenet wrote:
AdamB wrote:
The scientists are the ones who led to polarization in this regard...


Don't be silly. The scientists are simply reporting on real-world data and their interpretation of those scientific facts. Thats their job.


I'm not being silly, I'm just not talking about the current crop of scientists born into the intellectual world I am thinking of, started circa 1975 or so. . I've got no problem with facts, data, and conclusions drawn from them, a good example starting from just such a foundation that anyone can get a good chuckle over is peak oil. But within the hard sciences in general, I'm far more interested in proven results from those sciences related to a viable backcasting model from first principles.

Plantagenet wrote:Science is inherently not political. Both the right and left try to politicize science but science itself has no political bias.


Not TRY. Have. Sure it is the people that screw it up, look at what idiot peak oilers have attempted to do with "science" in pursuit of their Rapture event, like shorty right here on this very forum. Takes some science, cooks the books in an obvious way, and even gets some chuckleheads buying it. See how easy it can happen? And when the scientists decide they know better, them being smart and all, and decide to do the same? This recent urge for scientists to sue each other is just proof of the concept, for those walking in the path laid down from way back when.
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Re: Nobody can answer this simple question about Global Warm

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 13:12:09

onlooker wrote:Well, I for one believe the scientists and science and not crackpot theories and canards put out by politized entities


Says a bona fide sucker for peak oil doom, even AFTER peak oil happened..

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Re: Nobody can answer this simple question about Global Warm

Unread postby Cog » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 13:14:23

Climate scientists, are in the majority, leftists. Whether it affects their science I will leave up to your imagination.
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Re: Nobody can answer this simple question about Global Warm

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 13:21:40

Cog wrote:Climate scientists, are in the majority, leftists. Whether it affects their science I will leave up to your imagination.


That isn't my personal experience.

While colleges and universities are by and large dominated by leftists, the science departments are not.

And scientific instruments obviously have no political bias----for instance when measurements of the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere are made, those numbers are just the numbers. No politics are involved.

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Re: Nobody can answer this simple question about Global Warm

Unread postby Cog » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 13:24:35

Unless the numbers are fudged or re-arranged to show something more doomy than the raw numbers would otherwise indicate. Don't tell me that doesn't happen.
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Re: Nobody can answer this simple question about Global Warm

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 13:30:45

Cog wrote:Unless the numbers are fudged or re-arranged to show something more doomy than the raw numbers would otherwise indicate. Don't tell me that doesn't happen.


There do seem to have been some instances where numbers have been fudged and/or rearranged. And its not just in climate science---scientists working on all sorts of things have been caught fudging data.

On the bright side scientists have to "show their work" so the numbers are usually available to other scientists, who eventually catch the fudging.

Thats the nice thing about science. Even though scientists are fallible human beings, and a few are definitely dishonest or politically biased, much like other humans in other lines or work, the numbers themselves don't lie. A gravimeter on the ICESAT satellite measuring ice mass loss in Antarctica is just collecting data---the finding that the ice sheet is shrinking is just a snapshot of reality---no politics involved. An array of thermometers lowered into the ocean is just reading the temperature---the finding that the ocean is warming is just a fact.

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Re: Nobody can answer this simple question about Global Warm

Unread postby GHung » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 13:38:23

Cog wrote:Unless the numbers are fudged or re-arranged to show something more doomy than the raw numbers would otherwise indicate. Don't tell me that doesn't happen.


Since scientists reputations depend on their papers being peer reviewed, that would be pretty rare. The quickest way to lose their jobs is to falsify data. The same was true when I was a working engineer. Indeed, the only job I was ever fired from was when I refused to put my stamp on work I knew to be incomplete and that contained false and questionable data. They just made stuff up to complete the designs and get paid. It would have been my ass when that was discovered.

The vast majority of scientists will cover their career asses rather than make stuff up to support their theories. They've worked far too hard to get there, and they know their work will be checked out, especially if their conclusions are controversial. Are there exceptions? Sure. So let's just, as I said above, invalidate them all. That's the idiotic thing to do.
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Re: Nobody can answer this simple question about Global Warm

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 13:56:50

Plant- "The fatal flaw in the argument that you and Lomborg are making is that the problems with global warming get worse and worse through time as more and more CO2 accumulates in the atmosphere. By the time you go out 50-100 years from now we're going to be looking at sea level rise flooding parts of every coastal city in the world" Perfect response, amigo...mucho thanks. Your response perfectly captures the flaw in your thought process and that of so many others. The global population is doing little to save the lives of 50 million children under 5 yo even though it costs them almost nothing. But the same group will be willing to make huge sacrifices for billions who haven't been born yet? Sacrifices being made by billions the majority of whom won't be alive themselves to benefit from those sacrifices in "50 to 100 years"?t

Or put simply: how many of TPTB living in multi $million apartments in NYC will care more about parts of the city being flooded long after they are dead then they care about the 1.5 million kids under 5 that will die of easily preventable diarrhea in 2018? Really? Let me know when you get them signed up. LOL.

I don't mean to be so harsh but you make some rather indefensible assumptions IMHO. There is a long f*cking list of things that should be done that won't even be attempted.
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Re: Nobody can answer this simple question about Global Warm

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 14:06:19

Have to agree with Rock's assessment. Between nihilism and altruism is where most people are. It is called practicality
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Re: Nobody can answer this simple question about Global Warm

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 17:17:08

The fire storms that swept through Napa Valley and environs didn't discriminate between the rich and the poor.

All are vulnerable.

Eventually, most will realize this.
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Re: Nobody can answer this simple question about Global Warm

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 04 Dec 2017, 19:39:58

ROCKMAN wrote: how many of TPTB living in multi $million apartments in NYC will care more about parts of the city being flooded long after they are dead


Probably almost none.

ROCKMAN wrote: There is a long f*cking list of things that should be done that won't even be attempted.


Of course.

This is a long-standing problem in natural hazards mitigation. What kind of response should society make to relatively small hazards that occur frequently as opposed to much larger hazards that only occur rarely?

For the most part society ignores large but rare hazards. Thats why even an advanced society like Japan was caught flat-footed by the earthquake and tsunami. Its why volcanic eruptions continue to kill people even though volcanic process and hazards are fairly well understand. Things that only happen once every few hundred years are hard to prepare for, even when society knows what is coming.

Global Warming is even harder to prepare for then earthquakes and tsunamis and volcanic eruptions, because Global warming is really unprecedented. Nothing exactly like this has ever happened in the history of the earth, and we don't even know what is coming as global warming continues.

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