[copious.abundance]

BTW, here's a link to the USGS fact sheet:
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2009/3028/

[shortonsense]

500 billion / 85 million = 5882 days of production.

Are you kidding? That's ONLY 16 years to supply the whole world. So we push back peak oil by a decade-and-a-half. Big deal. Get with the program shorty, we are DOOMED!

But...but....another 16 years of BAU interferes with the AGENDA!! The agenda to turn all humans into navel contemplating, tofu eating, non CO2 emitting. suckling at the teat of government handouts plebe's!!

And what happens if we have exponential consumption growth instead of demand destruction? Why...it could all be gone in 14 years? Or even 12!

This could set back the entire fear mongering, sheeple scaring, compliance causing, confidence game we have been preparing for years!!

Wait a minute....this information was released on a Friday...ummmm...possible conspiracy? Maybe TPTB were hoping that no one would notice?

[shortonsense]

BTW, here's a link to the USGS fact sheet:
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2009/3028/

Footnotes and everything! Who do these people think they are, not mentioning EROEI, and refusing to calculate rates? You would think they expect us to do this for ourselves, like you and me just have! The audacity.

[TheDude]

Department of Earth Science: Research

While the presence of oil in the Heavy Oil Belt has been known since the 1930's, the first rigorous evaluation of the resources was made in the 1980's and led to the division of the belt into four areas: Machete, Zuata, Hamaca, and Cerro Negro. The oil in place was estimated at 1,3 trillion barrels, and the recoverable reserves at 267 billion barrels. The "Apertura" in 1995 led to the opening of this belt (in addition to other areas in Venezuela) to the participation of foreign oil companies. These companies have joined with PdVSA to start 35 year projects, which will enable a peak production of 660,000 barrels/day. At the end of the 35 year period, however, less than 3% of the Heavy Belt Reserves will have been recovered.
New technology including 3D seismics, horizontal wells and, specifically to these projects, the dissolving of the heavy oil by diluents which enable the heavy oil to be transported to upgrading facilities on the Venezuelan coast, has made these projects viable. (The upgrading facilities upgrade the heavy oil to medium grade oil). Clearly, further investments and further development of technology may be the keys, which would make the Heavy Oil Belt the most important oil producing area in the world.

All parties involved have known of the size of this junk for decades. Price and politics will determine feasibility of extraction. This paper is from 2002, btw.

[shortonsense]

Price and politics will determine feasibility of extraction.

Yup. Same as with, say, Prudhoe Bay. But its nice to know the scientists have decided how much is there, so we have an idea should us humans decide we need it for that extra 15 years supply.

[Outcast_Searcher]

Price and politics will determine feasibility of extraction.

Exactly.

Short and OilFinder2, everyone on this site isn't a wild-eyed we're-all-DOOMed-verysoonnow type. I agree with you that there is LOTS of oil out there.

However, as economist Jeff Rubin has been pointing out in some relatively rational sounding discussion (books and talks) of where we are and likely general trends (paraphrasing - emphasis mine):

"We are NOT going to run out of oil. There is PLENTY of oil out there. However, virtually all of the NEW oil reserves we find will be VERY expensive (on average) to extract compared to the very cheap/convenient sources like the major middle east fields we heavily depend on today. So the question isn't what happens when we run out, but what happens when it is TOO EXPENSIVE FOR MOST PEOPLE TO BE ABLE TO AFFORD TO BURN IT?"

Coupled with his outlook for increasing demand via Tata Nanos, 3 billion emerging market people wanting such cars for their families -- he sees $200 oil as soon as the global economy gets going strongly again. Not doom, but VERY inconvenient if you aren't rich.

I actually think electric cars (powered by green tech) and NG cars may greatly alleviate the problem in, say, 15 to 30 years. However, I wonder what happens until then.

[shortonsense]

There is PLENTY of oil out there. However, virtually all of the NEW oil reserves we find will be VERY expensive (on average) to extract compared to the very cheap/convenient sources like the major middle east fields we heavily depend on today. So the question isn't what happens when we run out, but what happens when it is TOO EXPENSIVE FOR MOST PEOPLE TO BE ABLE TO AFFORD TO BURN IT?"

Orinoco oil is shallow. Its onshore. Its got volumes 4X the size of Ghawar.

The only problem related to getting it out is the landowner. The oil will be there longer than him. And it doesn't cost that much to get it out. I like this kind of oil!

I actually think electric cars (powered by green tech) and NG cars may greatly alleviate the problem in, say, 15 to 30 years. However, I wonder what happens until then.

I agree about the electrification and gasification of transport. And during those 15-30 years we've got the Orinoco! This is excellent, all the transition time we need, all sitting in one place, close to the surface, close to an ocean and some Caribbean refineries ( Trindad Tobago springs to mind )....this is looking better and better! Flowable oil no less, none of that strip mining nonsense that Canada does.

I like it. Kick the peak oil can another decade or two down the road....or the NEXT peak oil maybe.....

[davep]

And it doesn't cost that much to get it out.

Do you have any reliable figures for that?

[TheDude]

[copious.abundance]

Just a little reminder for those who think we need $200 oil in order to make this stuff profitable. I remind you that Canada's tar sands are now churning out in excess of 1 million bpd with oil at $75/barrel. And I further remind you via the passage below that the stuff in the Orinoco is higher-quality than the stuff in Canada. Once the "Chavez hurtle" is crossed, this stuff is likely cheaper to extract than in the colds of Alberta. From the first post in this thread:

From page 14 of the document is this summary of the Venezuelan deposits compared to the Canadian ones:

Nevertheless, no matter what arguments are made, the Venezuelan reservoirs in the Faja del Orinoco are of substantially higher quality than Canadian heavy oil reservoirs; they have higher permeability, slightly higher porosity and oil saturation, slightly higher formation compressibilities, higher average gas contents, lower clay content, and so on. As mentioned previously, even after correcting for all known factors, the mobility of the oil in the Venezuelan deposits appears to be from 2 to 3 times more than in the Canadian oil deposits. Vertical wells in the Faja will produce substantial amounts of oil (100-200 bbl/d) even though sand is totally excluded; similar wells in Canada, albeit in somewhat lower permeability reservoirs, may produce 5-15 bbl/day

[shortonsense]

And it doesn't cost that much to get it out.

Do you have any reliable figures for that?

Nope. Only the following historical facts. Using cable tool rigs running manila rope lines, wells were drilled to the depth of the Clinton Medina formation in Ohio ( deeper than the deepest Orinoco in the southeastern counties of the state ). The oil was moved by donkey or mule train down to waiting barges on the Ohio River ( Orinoco River ) where it was then transported to a place where refineries were available like Ashland Kentucky ( Trinidad Tobago ).

In the case of the Orinoco of course, they are much closer to international markets because of the Atlantic.

This was happening at an oil price of about $30/bbl, real dollars, according to Hirsch ( DOE 2005 ).

Call me crazy, but are you suggesting that if a bunch of backwoods hillbillys inventing the industry as they went with donkeys and manila rope to do their drilling could make enough money at $30/bbl to continue this activity for a century, that Hugo Chavez with a single Venezuelan capable of reading 3 pages of oilfield history book and an engineer to explain the modern version of all this can only make the development expensive?

[AirlinePilot]

Dude,

Do you have a link/source for that particular chart you just posted. That is EXCELLENT.
Puts things in perspective.

[SFDukie]

Dude,

Do you have a link/source for that particular chart you just posted. That is EXCELLENT.
Puts things in perspective.

"Gail the actuary" posted it at TODE and sourced it from CERA-Oct 14, 2008 Ratcheting Down: Oil and the Global Credit Crisis Private Report
http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/5899

[shortonsense]

Dude,

Do you have a link/source for that particular chart you just posted. That is EXCELLENT.
Puts things in perspective.

Its a CERA reference. Google is your friend.

[AirlinePilot]

Thank you SF, appreciate it.

[TheDude]

Here's a blurrier version.

Hirsch Report:



For those who haven't read Lisa Margonelli's book: Lights Out in Chavez Land

Even the oil industry, on which this country so utterly depends, is crumbling. Oil production has declined from 3.3 million barrels a day in 2005 to about 2.4 million. Venezuela is not succumbing to peak oil, the country still possesses huge proven reserves. But in response to a 2-month strike by anti-Chavez oil workers in 2002, the government dismissed 17,000 workers – terminating their pension rights at the same time. Many of the most skilled engineers have emigrated. Meanwhile the government spends every dollar it collects abroad, runs a huge fiscal deficit (Venezuelan budget numbers are utterly opaque, so nobody can begin to guess how huge the deficit is), neglects to reinvest, and still has to inflate at 40% per year to close the gap.

[shortonsense]

Here's a blurrier version.

Hirsch Report:

Time for some critical thinking!!

Examining Hirschs magic triangles, we rough out the following linear trend, from 0 to 10 million barrels a day for heavy oil in 12 years. Lets assume its ALL the Orinoco ( versus all the OTHER heavy oils which undoubtedly are laying around waiting to be used as well ), and we estimate the linear increase to be 833,000 bbl/day/year.

Using this linear increase, we quickly deduce the following. At this rate, the heavy oil triangles of Hirsch dictate that they could replace all oil production globally in 100 years, 84 million/bbls/day, give or take. If this all comes from the Orinoco, t will take about 57 years to use up the entire 500+ billion thoroughly and scientifically assessed by the USGS. So obviously, even the Mighty Orinoco can't make it to full global replacement of all oil production. Maximum production it might achieve using the Mighty Triangle Method is about 47 million barrels a day.

I suppose it can't be counted on to provide yet another peak all by itself, but it certainly could kick the current one right in the chops! 50+ years of plenty and abundance means our grandkids will probably be duking it out on peakoilagain.com I suppose...

[AirlinePilot]

versus all the OTHER heavy oils which undoubtedly are laying around waiting to be used as well

Showing your true colors here short. Nothing could be further from the truth, but in your corny world it makes perfect sense.

The rest of us understand what will really happen with expensive, energy consuming extraction efforts as we suck on the bottom of the milkshake. Not to mention they exist in some of the more politically and economically challenged places on earth.

Oh boy cant wait for all that "plenty".

[copious.abundance]

So does anyone know just how much expensive high-grade petroleum is necessary to convert said gunk into high grade petroleum?

i.e.:the eroei. (has a nice ring. "i.e the eroei")

I was wondering when someone would bring this up.

Let's say the EROEI of this Orinico deposit is a paltry 3:1. That means you would consume about 128 billion barrels to recover and upgrade this oil, but receive 385 billion barrels in "available energy."

That's more than 3 Ghawars, about 32 Cantarells or Prudhoe Bays, or 74 East Texas Oil Fields.