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New US monthly oil production record. All time high.

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: New US monthly oil production record. All time high.

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 13 Feb 2018, 13:35:34

Plantagenet wrote:
tita wrote:
What is .... impressive is how operators managed to get much higher initial rate than older wells. We talked a lot about sweet spots being drilled first... But using longer laterals and different proppants, they were able to get higher rates with half of the drillings made in 2013. This is why we can't compare the rig count today with the 2013 or 14.


Its not surprising that much longer horizontal completions would generate more oil then shorter ones. However, don't forget that longer completions also cost more money so the net gain in profitability isn't all that great.

tita wrote:
I think it's quite clear that US production is not going to stall... Some (and also I) thought that EFS and Bakken were done... And it's not the case, they are also increasing, less than the Permian but anyway.


I beg to differ. Its physically impossible for US oil shale production to go up forever. At some point it will inevitably stall. I've suggested elsewhere that this may occur ca. 2020.
Cheers!

Tita is correct that the initial results of the newer wells are impressive. The high short term returns on these make the long term lower yields hugely profitable for most wells over time. Thus the economics of such new wells are very promising, over time.

Also, I don't think anyone (credible) ever seriously said US shale production will increase "forever". However, when you consider the way formations like the Permian are producing and their apparent reserves, increases for decades, and certainly well beyond 2020 are certainly possible, if not likely.

Also, the oil fracking bears tend to dismiss global production with a wave of the hand. And yet, despite some bans (which can be lifted if the price is high enough), there is plenty of potential there, especially as fracking technology continues to improve. All it takes is high enough oil prices. So when US fracking supply does stumble significantly down the road, I look for global oil fracking to take its place once oil prices justify it.

And of course, this assumes global oil demand continues rising apace. In two or more decades, green energy like BEV's, PHEV's, and even plain old HEV's could be greatly damping the net demand for oil globally. If that keeps oil prices relatively low, that means the world doesn't even NEED the "hard to get" foreign tight oil, which would be great news.
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Re: New US monthly oil production record. All time high.

Unread postby tita » Wed 14 Feb 2018, 10:29:37

Plantagenet wrote:I beg to differ. Its physically impossible for US oil shale production to go up forever. At some point it will inevitably stall. I've suggested elsewhere that this may occur ca. 2020.

Cheers!

And I agree with you, but I was more looking on a shorter time, not two years away. Until November 2017 last year, it seemed that US production was not growing as much as it was announced, based on monthly reports that estimate production with a delay of two months (with a much better accuracy than the weekly reports). But things changed drastically since, with a surge, which gives wild expectations about how much could US production grow in 2018. I try to understand why the US oil production was like this in 2017, and what this will means for 2018. 0.5 mb/d growth? 1 mb/d? 2mb/d?

Now, some even expect 2018 to be similar to 2014, with a large price plunge. Which is of course possible if US LTO production grow in similar paces than what we saw in late 2017.
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Re: New US monthly oil production record. All time high.

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 14 Feb 2018, 11:58:58

Plantagenet wrote:
tita wrote:
I think it's quite clear that US production is not going to stall... Some (and also I) thought that EFS and Bakken were done... And it's not the case, they are also increasing, less than the Permian but anyway.


I beg to differ. Its physically impossible for US oil shale production to go up forever. At some point it will inevitably stall. I've suggested elsewhere that this may occur ca. 2020.

Cheers!


Tita did not claim that US oil production will go up forever. Trolling again plant? :lol:
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: New US monthly oil production record. All time high.

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 14 Feb 2018, 12:40:30

AdamB wrote:
Tita did not claim that US oil production will go up forever. Trolling again plant?


No one in their right mind believes oil production will go up forever, you loon.

Tita already responded to my post and he had no issues with my post because he is smart enough to understand such basic facts.

You, unfortunately, are not.

Cheers!
"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
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Re: New US monthly oil production record. All time high.

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 16 Feb 2018, 08:57:14

Plantagenet wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Tita did not claim that US oil production will go up forever. Trolling again plant?


No one in their right mind believes oil production will go up forever, you loon.


That isn't what you said Plant. If you were to just stop putting words in people's mouths it wouldn't be so easy to note that you keep doing it. And then changing what you said AFTER the fact to change the topic from your initial screwup.

Trolling again? :lol:
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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