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New technology ?

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: New technology ?

Unread postby Kylon » Sun 05 Feb 2017, 18:08:29

ocean farming-

someone places something in the ocean with an anchor on it, has some seedweed innoculated in it,
then they come back later harvest half the seaweed, use thermal depolymerization to make it into oil.

then after the seaweed grows back, they do it again.

no fertilizer required. no watering required. basically once setup it just generates seaweed again and again.

Perpetual near free source of food or oil.

That's the future of oil. Done on a massive scale we could easily take care of all our food and oil needs.

The only major downside is that international waters would be contested, and since the profitability would potentially be so high, there would be a strong incentive for various nations and or civilizations to go to war to fight over ocean rights.

So in the end you end up solving peak oil, peak food, and due to the reduction of water spent on agriculture possibly peak water, but you create the motivation for the development of stronger militaries, greater amounts of war ect... in order to secure the ocean which provides the source of wealth. Whoever has best military can claim greatest amount of ocean, meaning they can make the most money/wealth to support their civilization. Not only money but raw materials and things to keep the population happy.

With that you end up with a bigger military industrial complex, and a strong push towards greater centralization and a bigger, more powerful, almost totalitarian state.

On the bright side military competition between nations may lead to the development of greater high energy technology like more advanced forms of fission energy and eventually fusion energy (in order to make better weapons or in order to power more powerful weapons and power the military industrial war machine).

It could also lead to better development of computers and artificial intelligence (more automated factories, better AIs for strategic military purposes and automated drones and soldiers). The spillover of course might mean better electronics for the rest of us.

The upside to better high energy tech, is that it brings us one step closer towards interplanetary colonization.
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Re: New technology ?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 05 Feb 2017, 18:39:59

Wow. I'd have guessed that real-time monitoring had been standard in the industry since at least the nineties...


I'm sure it would surprise those who haven't been actively involved in the industry. One thing I noticed over the years is that the public tends to think the oil and gas industry as a whole is right out there on the cutting edge and all of the companies are implementing the latest and greatest technology. The reality is more like this:

- companies only use technology to solve a problem they are having at a particular time. As an example if they were having problems with gas wells loading with fluid and killing themselves they might be convinced to put SCADA monitoring on the well and employ automation routines to send a rod pump down the hole when critical flow is reached hence pulling all the liquids up without having to shutin the well and bring out a gas lift unit. But try to convince them before they have this problem that they can avoid it entirely by employing SCADA and automation....no way, costs too much.
- there are really only a handful of enigneers and geologists at the largest companies who could be considered experts. Most are workaday BSc grads who learned on the job and tend to stick with what they know. As a consequence the amount of innovation is not impressive by any means
- most engineers and geologists like to focus on the problem at hand and have a harder time standing back and looking at the forest instead of the trees. That is simply because the rewards are there for solving a problem you are assigned to....come up with an idea to limit back pressure in the field by monitoring and balancing production between wells and your boss will either think you are crazy or you are trying to get his job. Not a lot of incentive there.
- within the industry there is an overwhelming tendency to do something "because we have always done things that way". This is why technologies like under balanced drilling took so long to catch on (although you could argue it still isn't used to the extent it could be)
- there are immediate rewards for cutting costs or at least managing costs downwards.....there are seldom rewards for increasing costs regardless of the outcome. More importantly implementing something like a full field monitoring, automation and intervention program takes a considerable amount of time to see any benefits...definitely beyond the realm of immediate gratification which is how companies rewards programs tend to work.
- most young engineers and geologists want to see advancement in their careers in a timely fashion. This doesn't happen if you get branded as someone who isn't "a team player". It is unfortunate but the industry continues to promote people into roles who think the same way as the last guy.

In a perfect world we would be full on implementing a lot more technology than is currently the case. The human element always gets in the way of making a perfect world happen I'm afraid. Smaller companies aren't as problematic with regards to listening to the "firebrands" but they suffer from not having the capital to take appropriate risks.
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Re: New technology ?

Unread postby evilgenius » Mon 06 Feb 2017, 13:04:57

evilgenius wrote:Maybe we ought to ask if in 50-70 years Exxon will rule solar? Will the oil companies, the majors especially, be able to make the leap to the next iteration? BP has made a lot of noise about investing in what comes next. That doesn't mean they'll succeed, or even still be at it when it will really start to matter. It seems like a good start, though. I don't see many of them putting much into fusion research, but solar I think is possible. Real research, backed up by the anxiety of oil industry execs looking for the kind of solar panel efficiency that makes domination of the industry possible.


I partly ask this question because I wonder what the extent of an oil company seeing itself as an energy company rather than an oil company can be over the financial picture that will emerge when exploration will begin to become so expensive that it could eat into any effort to diversify that a mere oil company might try.? If they aren't used to spending money upon a program they might have to make choices which could limit their chances of striking new oil. An oil company might not go for that, while an energy company might.
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Re: New technology ?

Unread postby sparky » Mon 06 Feb 2017, 20:29:49

.
To switch to being an energy company would loose all their in-build expertise in the hydrocarbon business
that's 120 years of knowledge , painfully accumulated by hundreds of techs and engineers , worth billions

to go for solar or wind would place them behind other outfit with a more extensive track record ,
Exxon like the other oil majors has very large management overheads
already they would be behind their others competitors in competency and management nimbleness

It doesn't make much economic sense beside giving themselves some green credentials for public relation purpose
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Re: New technology ?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Tue 07 Feb 2017, 16:34:17

Sparky - "to go for solar or wind would place them behind other outfit with a more extensive track record". Exactly. If my post about SunEdison, the largest wind/solar provider in the world, caught your eye you should check out its origin. I didn't know anything about them until the stated having a big footprint in Texas. They are a great example of how to become top dog in your field BY NOT HAVING a solid business plan. Their history reads more like that of a redheaded bastard child of a drunk that drives the family business into bankruptcy. Seriously, check it out:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/SunEdison

"SunEdison, Inc. is a global renewable energy company headquartered in the U.S. In addition to developing, building, owning, and operating solar power plants and wind energy plants...Originally a silicon-wafer manufacturer established in 1959 as the Monsanto Electronic Materials Company Monsanto sold the company in 1989. Prior to May 30, 2013, the company was known as MEMC Electronic Materials; the name change to SunEdison reflects the company's focus on solar energy."
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Re: New technology ?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 08 Feb 2017, 08:55:40

baha - Interesting...thanks. Fortunately it looks like SunEdison's residential footpring in Texas is very small since we actually have very little to no market here. They are building and managing their own solar farms and selling electricity to our utilities. Hopefully their commercial operations are more sound then their residential ops.
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Re: New technology ?

Unread postby sparky » Wed 08 Feb 2017, 19:12:58

.
It sound like SunEdison ( love the hook on the name ) is a very aggressive company ,

Their business plan is debt fueled growth to attract shareholders interest , it work fine up to a point
....paying dividends .
some manage the transition , most don't
most dud investments are based on glitter , fools gold , sky the limit promises !
the first law of a scam is to create greed ,
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Re: New technology ?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 08 Feb 2017, 21:47:34

Spaky - A rather complex tale of SunEdison's current financial condition. Need to read the entire link if interested:

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-suned ... SKCN0XO1PU

How some SunEdison creditors scored a safe, lucrative debt deal

When a group of hedge funds agreed to lend $725 million to SunEdison Inc - three months before it filed for bankruptcy last week - they secured an unusually generous concession from the U.S. renewable energy company and its other lenders.

The funds, which at the time included Tennenbaum Capital Partners LLC and Candlewood Investment Group LP, put themselves in a prime position to handle so-called debtor-in-position financing in the event of a bankruptcy.

Such deals are coveted because they are lucrative and relatively safe. In this case, the loan holders will earn about 10 percent on a $175 million debt that amounts to nearly risk-free investment: SunEdison cannot emerge from bankruptcy unless it repays the money, and any liquidation would almost certainly provide the funds to recoup it.

The move set the funds up to salvage a large portion of their January investment, which might have been nearly worthless as SunEdison filed for bankruptcy amid federal inquiries into its financing and liquidity.
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Re: New technology ?

Unread postby sparky » Thu 09 Feb 2017, 20:25:18

.
I've seen this kind of things here ,
we got plenty of public companies blowing themselves with hot air and widespread debt fuelled purchases ,
the trick is to be the first in line creditor , pick the plums in the lot then walk away leaving the second ranks fight over the scrap , leaving nothing much for the shareholders .
It must be mentioned that the bankruptcy industry make good money from their fees and ALWAYS get fully paid.

The best case was when Alan Bond purchased a TV station for Mr Packer who loved the station founded by his father
but said there were limits to sentimentality and 2$Billions (then) was the limit , he had a clause written that if the remainder of the money was not paid by a certain date , he would resume full ownership ,
other creditors would have to turn to Mr Bond other assets .

One year later Mr Packer walk in the door of Channel 9 at 2.00 PM , fired a dozen directors still having long lunch ,
and was in his old dig again , the richer of 500 M$ in 12 months ,

After a string of such cases ten years ago there was the suspicion that a cabal of lenders , market advisors and bankruptcy accountants were acting in synchronicity ,
not formally colluding but none of then too keen to stop a juicy source of cash .
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