Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby dcoyne78 » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 12:13:24

AdamB wrote:
dcoyne78 wrote:
worldcc2.jpg


What happened to the peak oil declared in 2008 by the halfwits at the oil drum? Did someone change the information to make it go away?


As you may know oil output did not peak in 2008.

Clearly the rate of growth in oil output has slowed, even with real oil prices at a level 6.6 times higher from 2006-2016 than they were from 1960 to 1970.

If oil is so abundant, why aren't oil prices $11/b, rather than $60/b?
dcoyne78
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 165
Joined: Thu 30 May 2013, 18:45:15

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 15:39:41

Because demand and supply are more or less in balance.
User avatar
Cog
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 9684
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 19:36:46

dcoyne78 wrote:
AdamB wrote:
dcoyne78 wrote:
worldcc2.jpg


What happened to the peak oil declared in 2008 by the halfwits at the oil drum? Did someone change the information to make it go away?


As you may know oil output did not peak in 2008.


But the half wits said it did!!! How dare they lie!!

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5177

dcoyne78 wrote:Clearly the rate of growth in oil output has slowed, even with real oil prices at a level 6.6 times higher from 2006-2016 than they were from 1960 to 1970.


1960 to 1970 was the end of cheap oil (Colin Campbell needing nearly 3 decades more to pretend it was in the near future), of course everything since then has been more expensive in real terms. And who cares about the rate of growth, that mitigated exactly because of the end of cheap oil, it is called efficiency. Energy intensity has been dropping since that time, fuel efficiency has been increasing, and some of us don't even fill our cars with gasoline anymore! Can you imagine that? People right here on this website told themselves that peak oil in 2005 would itself stop anything from mitigating peak oil, Who Killed The Electric Car being all the rage as a reference!

Needless to say, those of us who don't use gasoline in our cars any more laugh about how little peak oilers know about resource economics.

dcoyne78 wrote:If oil is so abundant, why aren't oil prices $11/b, rather than $60/b?

[/quote]

See my other post demonstrating the proper way to talk about abundance. I should also mention, at the IEW (International Energy Workshop) at the University of Maryland this past July, other big energy analysis organizations were doing exactly the same. The future isn't about prices today, but the prices of tomorrow, and where the resource cost curves say that oil is, and how much can be developed at any given price.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 3384
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 20:38:14

dcoyne78 wrote:If oil is so abundant, why aren't oil prices $11/b, rather than $60/b?


Who is to say you can't call oil abundant unless it's $11/bbl?

The best real-world way to determine whether a resource is abundant is the cost of finished goods. Gas is well below the point where people start grumbling, therefore oil is still abundant.
“Hate, it has caused a lot of problems in the world, but has not solved one yet.” --Maya Angelou
asg70
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1297
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby dcoyne78 » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 16:42:54

asg70 wrote:Who is to say you can't call oil abundant unless it's $11/bbl?


Typically the real price of good is relatively low when it is abundant.

I picked $11/b because that was the real price of oil in 2016 $ during the oil glut around 1999-2000. Grumbling is difficult to measure. :) Real prices, less so.

Claims can be made that the rate of growth does not matter but if we take 10 year average growth rates for oil output and these approach zero, it is likely that the peak will have been reached.

I agree the higher prices will lead to greater efficiency and reduced demand, all that matters is the rate of output at prevailing prices, I expect 2025 to 2030 is a pretty good guess for the peak in World C+C output, probably at about 84+/- 2 Mb/d.
Last edited by Tanada on Wed 22 Nov 2017, 17:03:28, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: fixed broken quote
dcoyne78
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 165
Joined: Thu 30 May 2013, 18:45:15

Re: New monthly world crude oil production record Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 22 Nov 2017, 20:35:07

dcoyne78 wrote:
asg70 wrote:Who is to say you can't call oil abundant unless it's $11/bbl?


Typically the real price of good is relatively low when it is abundant.


Or when demand has migrated elsewhere, or decreased because of conservation. Why using price is a two sided sword, it ain't all about abundance. It is about the relationship between supply and demand at any point in time.

Peakers a decade ago never seemed to talk about this while declaring that price mattered. Always struck me as weird, then it became obvious that resource economics wasn't in their competence envelope any more than oil and gas development.

dcoyne78 wrote:Claims can be made that the rate of growth does not matter but if we take 10 year average growth rates for oil output and these approach zero, it is likely that the peak will have been reached.


And maybe rate of growth changed because demand changed. And maybe price changed for the same reason. And maybe peak demand is already happening, and we can all say good riddance to wasting oil by doing something so stupid as burning it?


dcoyne78 wrote:I agree the higher prices will lead to greater efficiency and reduced demand, all that matters is the rate of output at prevailing prices, I expect 2025 to 2030 is a pretty good guess for the peak in World C+C output, probably at about 84+/- 2 Mb/d.


Sounds similar to Lynch and Yergin, back when peak oilers were getting it wrong and yucking it up over the value of what real energy expert types were estimating. You would have been banned back then I imagine, for daring to presume peak oil hadn't already happened yesterday or was today! Let's hear it for reality tempering the reaction of the acolytes!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 3384
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

US Vastly Overstates Oil Output Forecasts, MIT Study Suggest

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 01 Dec 2017, 23:21:41


Turns out, America’s decade-long shale boom might just end up being a little too good to be true. There’s no denying that fracking has turned the U.S. into a force in the global oil and gas markets, which has more than a few people abuzz about the prospect of energy independence. But now, researchers at MIT have uncovered one potentially game-changing detail: a flaw in the Energy Department’s official forecast, which may vastly overstate oil and gas production in the years to come. The culprit, they say, lies in the Energy Information Administration’s premise that better technology has been behind nearly all the recent output gains, and will continue to boost production for the foreseeable future. That’s not quite right. Instead, the research suggests increases have been largely due to something more mundane: low energy prices, which led drillers to focus on sweet spots


US Vastly Overstates Oil Output Forecasts, MIT Study Suggests
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 3384
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Previous

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: tita, Tuike and 16 guests