longpig wrote:2013
longpig wrote:Bitcoin is stupid to invest in, you are best off buying gold. There are no real gold substitutes for money but for Bitcoin there are hundreds of near to identical types of crypto currencies. Yes Bitcoins are limited in supply but the number of other crypto currencies that are identical or similar to it can be unlimited.
The fact is when people see Bitcoins as too expensive they will move to buy other 'cheaper' crypto currencies instead. I am surprised it hasn't greatly happened yet.
Bitcoin vs Gold boils down to this. There are no real gold substitutes but there are plenty of bitcoin substitutes and the number can be unlimited.
Gold = Toilet paper limited in supply and can not be reproduced.
Bitcoin = Major brand of toilet paper that is very expensive only because people are too stupid to switch to a cheaper brand yet. Other crypto currencies are producing plenty and is only a matter of time before the market place is flooded with crypto's and they all become worthless.
I'm still against cryptos based on my above reasoning's.
Agreed 100% on the value of gold being largely based on its rare, compact, and nonvolatile nature. (There are imperfect substitutes, like diamonds or metals like platinum -- but they have significant downsides over time.)
This is another angle on what I've been saying all along, re cryptocurrencies. (And there are already a large "herd" of cryptos. Both legit, and (former) fraudulent ones, BTW.)
For major economies (at least), cryptocurrencies/usage WILL be monitored and regulated by the governments to ensure they can tax the population. Despite all the denial about this from some crypto advocates, it is already happening, re entities like the IRS. They're all over this, and there are lots of articles about it.
So, at some point, IF crypto vs., say, Visa etc. becomes the new standard -- WHICH crypto(s) will major governments approve? A new one (or several) that they invent? If you guess wrong, the long term value of any cryptos you invest in WILL approach zero.
Think you can confidently and accurately predict what the governments will do re crypto policy, and the timing? Given how hard it is to do meaningful tax planning in the real world, due to many unpredictable rule changes -- good luck with that.
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I would argue that, semantics aside, we already now basically have a crypto system for modern currency, available all over the developed world. I call it the Visa/Mastercard network, enabled by modern chipped cards. If it turns out not to be secure enough, they can always improve it, just as the chips themselves were a much needed improvement. The problems of transaction cost, handling volume, reliability, etc. are already pretty much solved. You DON'T need a blockchain to do that.
But I know, don't tell a strongly bullish crypto advocate that -- since they don't want to hear it.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.