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NASA Civilization Destabilizing Solar Flare Risk 1.2% Yearly

Re: NASA Civilization Destabilizing Solar Flare Risk 1.2% Ye

Unread postby Lore » Fri 01 Aug 2014, 11:49:06

The full effect I believe would depend on if we're facing the sun at the time of the flare and the angle. Could be the other side of the globe gets it on a 50/50 basis.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
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Re: NASA Civilization Destabilizing Solar Flare Risk 1.2% Ye

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Fri 01 Aug 2014, 12:22:01

I think the wise approach would be to not panic and shoot yourself in the head the next time the lights flicker. Maybe a flare takes down half the grid, but basic services are back after 6 weeks.

After Katrina, the biggest breakdown was the homeowners and cops gunning down innocent people left and right. How many cops went to prison for the shooting of the retarded teenager trying to walk out of the flood zone? Five cops? Remember the Twilight Zone episode "The Monsters Are Due on Maple Street?"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Monste ... ple_Street
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Re: NASA Civilization Destabilizing Solar Flare Risk 1.2% Ye

Unread postby steam_cannon » Fri 01 Aug 2014, 12:25:13

Lore wrote:The full effect I believe would depend on if we're facing the sun at the time of the flare and the angle. Could be the other side of the globe gets it on a 50/50 basis.
Also that brings up the question of MAD, Mutually Assured Destruction, what happens to the balance of power if Russia's light goes out or the US lights go out? I assume it would be a break up of the Soviet Union kind of situation where nuclear remains guarded and everyone just chills. That's more or less what happened when the Soviet Union collapsed.

But is that what would go down if the situation was reversed? It would make a good novel if there was a MAD like reaction where the other superpower took out our powergrid with EMP's so we were in the same situation they were in. Mutually Assured Blackout. I don't think that would happen, but it would make a good short story.
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Re: NASA Civilization Destabilizing Solar Flare Risk 1.2% Ye

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Fri 01 Aug 2014, 12:32:05

I think the wise approach would be to not panic and shoot yourself (or your neighbor) the next time the lights flicker.

Remember the Twilight Zone episode "The Monsters Are Due on Maple Street?"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Monste ... ple_Street

Maybe a flare takes down half the grid, but basic services are back after 6 weeks.

After Katrina, the biggest breakdown was the homeowners and cops gunning down innocent people left and right. How many cops went to prison for the shooting of the retarded teenager trying to walk out of the flood zone? Five cops? Rule #1 after the apocalypse is Don't Be Black, because there are too many goobers that are convinced there will be a human wave of ethnic people rolling over them, because that's what they've been hearing for 50 years.

I think that was the one of the least realistic things about One Second After was how blacks and whites instantly put their differences aside even though the book is set in Klan country. And that's taken from Alas Babylon. In both books, the main character acquires a fierce black Tonto-like sidekick who has dog-like loyalty, a real tough character who is conveniently willing to take a bullet for the main character. But AB was written during Jim Crow and segregation so it did not seem strange at that time.
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Re: NASA Civilization Destabilizing Solar Flare Risk 1.2% Ye

Unread postby Pops » Fri 01 Aug 2014, 13:04:02

To kind of spin this back to current events and farther off topic, LOL, the idea of MAD was of course the aversion to harming one's own country by initiating a tit for tat exchange. Modern globalizim kind of took the place of MAD by making more country's economies inter-dependent via mutual trade.

Which makes one wonder at the end stage result of an increasingly sanctioned and isolated Russia.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: NASA Civilization Destabilizing Solar Flare Risk 1.2% Ye

Unread postby steam_cannon » Fri 01 Aug 2014, 13:41:39

Pops wrote:Which makes one wonder at the end stage result of an increasingly sanctioned and isolated Russia.
Back to MAD? Or economic war with economic fallout?

By the way, I just noticed your icon. It's probably been that way for a long time, but that's pretty darn cool!
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Re: NASA Civilization Destabilizing Solar Flare Risk 1.2% Ye

Unread postby Pops » Fri 01 Aug 2014, 14:07:51

Thanks, that's to remind the folks who disparage the "sheeple" that even a cute little lapdog is still a wolf down deep inside.

;^)
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Re: NASA Civilization Destabilizing Solar Flare Risk 1.2% Ye

Unread postby Lore » Fri 01 Aug 2014, 17:07:58

Yeah, but most are wimpy wolves.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
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Re: NASA Civilization Destabilizing Solar Flare Risk 1.2% Ye

Unread postby Karle » Sun 03 Aug 2014, 08:57:26

It seems some of the posts here want to sugarcoat the events which will be triggered by a huge solar flare.

Fried electronics and transformers and an overall grid black-out will stop everything.

If some devices were hardened and survived the flare they would be useless anyway since everything is interconnected.

If your cell phone survives, there will be no coverage and no others to talk to.
If your car electronics survive the flares, there will be no petrol station to fill up the tank.

And so on.

To build new transformers will take years they say. How do you build them if the factories have no electricity? How will you order them if you have neither email nor phone? How will you pay if the financial system is not existent any more due to lack of electricity?

And the biggest question: How would you start a completely blacked-out grid after some years? Power stations cannot start by themselves, they need electricity to start - except hydro power which is capable of a so called black start.

And finally, the grid is the most complex structure mankind has ever build. It has never been completely down, and no one has experience or knowledge about how to restart it, especially when there is no communication.
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Re: NASA Civilization Destabilizing Solar Flare Risk 1.2% Ye

Unread postby Pops » Sun 03 Aug 2014, 09:17:58

Karl, from your attitude you must be amazed people can figure out how to get out from under the sheets in the morning, LOL
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: NASA Civilization Destabilizing Solar Flare Risk 1.2% Ye

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 03 Aug 2014, 09:44:06

He's got a point Pops. He's looking at the bigger picture in a systematic way.

Holistic if you like.

If it happens it may not be that bad, but if we got a sever shot then it could be pretty tough.

I don't have a clue how long these events last. If it is a single pulse then presumably it would effect only part of the world. Maybe it effects the Eurasian continent and not us, or visa versa, to the Pacific Basin if you are lucky.

Can it even last 12 hours?
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Re: NASA Civilization Destabilizing Solar Flare Risk 1.2% Ye

Unread postby Karle » Sun 03 Aug 2014, 10:51:27

Pops wrote:Karl, from your attitude you must be amazed people can figure out how to get out from under the sheets in the morning, LOL


Pops, you are addressing the wrong one. :mrgreen:

What I wrote above is a very short summary of hundreds of pages from the German parliament (Bundestag) and the German Army (Bundeswehr and Führungsakademie der Bundeswehr) as well as the results of a meeting of the NATO defence ministers in 2013 in Bruxelles to discuss complete long blackouts.

[url]http://www.fueakbw.de/news/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=113&cHash=2c025c4f45d5d32a67fdfa0eba7ef163[/url]

and more, all in German unfortunately.

The main result is they all agree it will be a catastrophic event, and their main concern is that people don't understand the issue, or even ridicule it out of ignorance - which you have certainly proved.
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Re: NASA Civilization Destabilizing Solar Flare Risk 1.2% Ye

Unread postby sparky » Sun 03 Aug 2014, 14:24:20

.
The first indication of a big X solar flare is , of course , an active sun .
Sunspots are observed constantly as they appear and rotate on the Sun surface
to hit the Earth an eruption would have to be around thirty degrees off
this is because the plasma is flung out over a period of time, and the Sun rotate
if it is anywhere else it will miss us .
with an active Sun , the observers would see a group of sunspots erupt like a volcano
a very big eruption , located at the proper angle would see alarm bells ringing
the wavelength bands , satellites and visual observation would indicate the probable severity of the coming storm
from two to three days beforehand

Satellites would be put into dormancy , astronauts possibly brought back to Earth
the Electric grids running in a West /East direction would be disconnected from each others
( North /South don't get affected so much )
trip safeties settings would be adjusted for Geomagnetically induced currents
and fingers kept crossed .

the coronal material would travel over space ,
if it is a biggie , it could last several hours and affect the high latitudes , such as Finland , Canada , Alaska , Russia
the severity decrease as one go toward the equator ,
if it is a really really big one , there could be some beautiful Northern lights seen very far South

It would be a serious problem but the end of the world it ain't
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagneti ... ed_current
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Re: NASA Civilization Destabilizing Solar Flare Risk 1.2% Ye

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Sun 03 Aug 2014, 15:06:41

But will there be triffids? I want triffids!
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Re: NASA Civilization Destabilizing Solar Flare Risk 1.2% Ye

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Sun 03 Aug 2014, 15:09:40

Seriously though, clearly we can expect substantial damage every 30 to 50 years from smaller events. It's likely that the next event will be a real problem but less than the end of civilization. Too many people jump to the end-of-the-world scenarios because they just want it too bad.
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Re: NASA Civilization Destabilizing Solar Flare Risk 1.2% Ye

Unread postby Pops » Sun 03 Aug 2014, 15:55:18

Let me put it this way Karl, I have an assortment of items wrapped in anti-stat bags, and the tin-foil cinched down tight - then stuck in a metal box. Some 2-way comm type stuff, GPS/GMRS radio, and some just listening stuff: wind up am/fm/sw radio, cheap scanner; a couple windup flashlights, a couple of gizmos to make my old truck run and a thumb drive of docs from my computer that I change out every so often. I inherited an old iphone I can stick in there next time I open it.

Did I already say that here? Proly repeating myself LOL

Anyway it isn't that I disbelieve something like this (or EMP) can happen, only that if it is a solar something we'll bounce back once we get our feet underneath. It seems there are 2 things here that kind of conflict - one is that lots of folks take lots of things for granted, like a light switch, and lots of those same folks would freak out in an event and proceed to run around like fools and wind up putting someone's eye out.
But the other thing is, people thought all this stuff up and built it in the first place. So yeah, take personal precautions and maybe be ready to lay low why people freak out but I'm pretty sure it won't be back to the caves.

Hope anyway.
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Re: NASA Civilization Destabilizing Solar Flare Risk 1.2% Ye

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sun 03 Aug 2014, 23:49:54

Karle wrote:If some devices were hardened and survived the flare they would be useless anyway since everything is interconnected.
Except solar powered ham radio:
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Re: NASA Civilization Destabilizing Solar Flare Risk 1.2% Ye

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Mon 04 Aug 2014, 02:55:14

In "One Second After" there were some ham radio operators broadcasting, and critics of that book said it exaggerated the effects of an EMP attack. In other words, they'd probably be OK.
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CME Impact, Severe Geomagnetic Solar Storm

Unread postby vox_mundi » Tue 17 Mar 2015, 14:10:58

CME Impact, Severe Geomagnetic Solar Storm

A pair of solar eruptions over the weekend have unleashed a severe geomagnetic storm that could disrupt power and communications Tuesday on Earth, US officials said.

The storm could grow into a G4 on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scale of one to five, with five being the worst.
... "Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid," NOAA said in a space weather alert describing the storm.

High frequency radio may be sporadic or blacked out for hours, and satellite navigation systems may be "degraded or inoperable for hours," the federal agency added.

US residents as far south as Alabama and northern California could be able to see the resulting aurora—known as the Northern Lights—from the magnetic storm.

Arriving earlier than expected, a CME hit Earth's magnetic field on March 17th at approximately 04:30 UT. At first, the impact sparked a relatively mild G1-class (Kp=5) geomagnetic storm. Since then, however, the storm has intensified to G4-class (Kp=8), ranking it as the strongest geomagnetic storm of the current solar cycle. This storm is underway now. Before sunrise, bright auroras were sighted over several northern-tier US states including Minnesota, Wisconsin, Montana, the Dakotas and Washington.

This storm could continue for many hours to come as Earth passes through the turbulent wake of the CME. Stay tuned for updates.

Image
http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/au ... sphere.png
Image
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index

The K-index, and by extension the Planetary K-index, are used to characterize the magnitude of geomagnetic storms. Kp is an excellent indicator of disturbances in the Earth's magnetic field and is used by SWPC to decide whether geomagnetic alerts and warnings need to be issued for users who are affected by these disturbances.

The principal users affected by geomagnetic storms are the electrical power grid, spacecraft operations, users of radio signals that reflect off of or pass through the ionosphere, and observers of the aurora.

Solar wind flowing from the indicated coronal holes should reach Earth on March 19-20.
Image


Strong Solar Storm Hits Earth May Pull Northern Lights South

So far no damage has been reported. Two blasts of magnetic plasma left the sun on Sunday, combined and arrived on Earth about 15 hours earlier and much stronger than expected, said Thomas Berger, director of the Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado.

This storm ranks a 4, called severe, on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's 1-to-5 scale for geomagnetic effects. It is the strongest solar storm to blast Earth since the fall of 2013. It's been nearly a decade since a level 5 storm, termed extreme, has hit Earth.

Forecasters figured it would come late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning; instead, it arrived just before 10 a.m. EDT. They had forecast it to be a level 1.

"It's significantly stronger than expected," Berger said. Forecasters had predicted a glancing blow instead of dead-on hit. Another theory is that the combination of the two storms made it worse, but it's too early to tell if that's so, he said.

... Space Weather branch chief Brent Gordon said if the storm effects continued through Tuesday evening, there was a "very strong possibility" that the northern lights could be seen as far south as the middle United States, even Tennessee and Oklahoma. That also means much of Russia and northern Europe, as far south as central Germany and Poland, had the potential for the sky show.
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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
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Re: CME Impact, Severe Geomagnetic Solar Storm

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 17 Mar 2015, 14:53:04

Looking forward to the northern lights---I've only seen them a few times so far this winter up here in Alaska.

When you get a big aurora event like this is shaping up to be, they form right over central Alaska and you can look straight up and see these huge moving curtains of dancing light right above you.

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