[Subjectivist]

That was one of the faults of "One Second After". The reluctant hero was a college professor of a Christian college based loosely on the author himself. All of sudden this pacifist becomes a military tactical genius and a killing machine out of nowhere. Aside from having to buy into the improbable scenario, but hay it's a work of fiction, you have to get pummeled with the conservative guns, beans and Jesus line throughout the book along the lines of James Wesley Rawles.

Not quite, the college professor is a retired military planner who worked in the Pentagon as a Colonel until his wife was diagnosed with cancer and wanted to move back to her home town. He left the military and took the college job to make his sick wife happy, she died a couple years before the book is set in time. At the very beginning he is on his cell phone talking to one of his friends who still works in th pentagon. Nowhere is it ever stated he is a pacifist, he was career military officer for 20 years or so.

[Herr Meier]

What is the risk of this happening within 50 years?

[Lore]

That was one of the faults of "One Second After". The reluctant hero was a college professor of a Christian college based loosely on the author himself. All of sudden this pacifist becomes a military tactical genius and a killing machine out of nowhere. Aside from having to buy into the improbable scenario, but hay it's a work of fiction, you have to get pummeled with the conservative guns, beans and Jesus line throughout the book along the lines of James Wesley Rawles.

Not quite, the college professor is a retired military planner who worked in the Pentagon as a Colonel until his wife was diagnosed with cancer and wanted to move back to her home town. He left the military and took the college job to make his sick wife happy, she died a couple years before the book is set in time. At the very beginning he is on his cell phone talking to one of his friends who still works in th pentagon. Nowhere is it ever stated he is a pacifist, he was career military officer for 20 years or so.

You're right, although his reluctant first kills shows he was never a military field man and required the services of another veteran to turn the school's students into real Christian soldiers. Something he doubts would ever be possible at a liberal arts college.

[Subjectivist]

What is the risk of this happening within 50 years?

If you believe their math, 60%

We know t happened during the Carrington event, and anything that happens once can recure.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859

[Lore]

What is the risk of this happening within 50 years?

If you believe their math, 60%

We know t happened during the Carrington event, and anything that happens once can recure.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859

That is of course unless it's an extinction event. Then it only happens once.

[FoxV]

Well I think the good news to take away from all of this is that it was a "near miss" and so being a nice safe wake up call.

I'm sure the owners, operators, and those responsible for Trillions of dollars of infrastructure got the message.

It'll take time, but I bet they are probably already talking about an early warning network to shut down what they can in the time they have. Now that everyone has been reminded that a once in 200 year devastating event can happen tomorrow, it's no longer a black swan. That $2T price tag associated with such an event will probably drop over the next few years as everyone who has personal responsibility in such matters covers their asses

That's the borning reality of it all. Now the real fun will be watching the prepers have a field day with this.

Btw as for going out to sea with out electronics, It's not something I would willingly do, but not something I'd overly fret if it was necessary. Modern day sailboats are orders of magnitude better designed than the tall ships of old. People cross the ocean single handed now in boats smaller than a tall ship's life raft.

And yes there are a lot of "credit card captains" out there, but anyone that calls themselves a sailor has at least basic understanding of weather, currents and navigating by the stars. Remember, when you're out there in the middle of the ocean, the stars, clouds, and waves are the only things to look at.

As for TEOTWAWKI, I wouldn't sail out into the middle of the ocean; just far enough offshore to be out of a zombie's swimming range

[Lore]

Looks like a 12% chance of a similar Carrington event happening within the next 10 years.

The solar storm of 1859, also known as the Carrington Event,was a powerful geomagnetic solar storm in 1859 during solar cycle 10. A solar flare or coronal mass ejection hit Earth's magnetosphere and induced the largest known solar storm, which was observed and recorded by Richard C. Carrington.

Studies have shown that a solar storm of this magnitude occurring today would cause widespread problems for modern civilization. There is an estimated 12% chance of a similar event occurring between 2014 and 2024.

In June 2013, a joint venture from researchers at Lloyd's of London and Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) in the United States used data from the Carrington Event to estimate the current cost of a similar event to the US at $0.6-2.6 trillion.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859

[vox_mundi]

Here are some Government References on the subject. Some Interesting reads:

From U.S. Department of Energy (DoE) & North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC)

NERC “Report of the Commission to Assess the Threat to the United States from Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) Attack”. April 2008.
http://www.empcommission.org/docs/A2473 ... on-7MB.pdf

Consequences of Financial Infrastructure Failure............ 92
Effects of an EMP Event on the U.S. Petroleum and Natural Gas
Infrastructures..... 100
Indirect Effects of EMP: Accounting for Infrastructure Interdependencies... 102
Consequences of Food Infrastructure Failure ......... 134
Consequences of Water Infrastructure Failure......... 143
Estimated deaths in first 2 years = 5-10 million.

NERC “High-Impact, Low-Frequency Event Risk to the North American Bulk Power System” Report
http://www.nerc.com/pa/CI/Resources/Doc ... Report.pdf

Coordinated Attack Risk .......... 13
Pandemic Risk ................. 16
GMD/EMP Risk................. 18
Consequence ................... 74
Pg 76: A map showing the At-Risk EHV Transformer Capacity by State for this disturbance scenario, regions with high percentages could experience long duration outages that could extend multiple years.

Lloyd’s: “Solar storm Risk to the North American electric grid”
http://www.lloyds.com/~/media/lloyds/re ... 20grid.pdf

Geomagnetic Storms http://thoughtleadership.aonbenfield.co ... storms.pdf

A 2004 report of the US National Academy of Sciences estimated the economic costs of a repeat of the 1921 event for the US alone at USD2 trillion for the first four years but with recovery taking up to ten years (NAS, 2008). Up to 350 major transformers would be at risk with up to 130 million people left without power. Even when a spare transformer is available replacement takes several weeks.

Presentations: http://www.narucmeetings.org/Presentati ... tation.pdf
Consequences:

Solar Flare – long term blackout affecting > 130 million people
EMP – 70 to 90 % of U.S. population “unsustainable”

OECD/IFP Futures Project on“Future Global Shocks” - “Geomagnetic Storms” http://www.oecd.org/gov/risk/46891645.pdf Office of Risk Management and Analysis, United States Department of Homeland Security

NAS: SEVERE SPACE WEATHER EVENTS—UNDERSTANDING SOCIETAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACTS
http://lasp.colorado.edu/home/wp-conten ... -FINAL.pdf

NERC System Disturbance Analysis: 1989 Geomagnetic Storm. August 1990.
http://www.nerc.com/files/1989-Quebec-Disturbance.pdf


Blackouts: Sociology of Electrical Power Failure
http://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/12908/
http://eprints.lincoln.ac.uk/12908/2/Bl ... R%2BDP.pdf

[Subjectivist]

What is the risk of this happening within 50 years?

If you believe their math, 60%

We know t happened during the Carrington event, and anything that happens once can recure.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859

That is of course unless it's an extinction event. Then it only happens once.

Touche'

[Pops]

LOL, just like the people who run oil companies, the people who run the grid aren't there to provide energy, they are there to make a profit. The grid was long ago deregulated to prevent government interference in such trivia as reliability in order that investors should make more profit.

What will investors want, offsetting a 1% chance of a failure or a couple of trillion in profit?

[dinopello]

What will investors want, offsetting a 1% chance of a failure or a couple of trillion in profit?

Plus, it's unlikely the utility companies would have to bear the full cost of grid repair or generation repair in the case of catastrophic failure. It would be a national emergency and no point in having the utilities go bankrupt. Too important to fail.

[Newfie]

http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/Larg ... 2012_0.pdf

The United States has limited production capability to manufacture LPTs. In 2010,
only 15 percent of the Nation’s demand for power transformers (with a capacity rating of
60 MVA and above) was met through domestic production. Although the exact statistics
are unavailable, power transformer market supply conditions indicate that the Nation’s
reliance on foreign manufacturers is even greater for EHV power transformers, which
have a capacity rating of 300 MVA and above (or a voltage rating of 345 kV and above).

However, domestic production of LPTs is expected to improve in the near future. In
addition to the opening of EFACEC’s Rincon, Georgia plant in 2010, at least three new
or expanded facilities will produce EHV LPTs in the United States starting 2012 and
beyond, including: SPX’s recently expanded Waukesha, Wisconsin plant; HHI’s newly
inaugurated Montgomery, Alabama plant; and Mitsubishi’s proposed Memphis,
Tennessee plant.

One is left to wonder if those plants could operate if they were subject to a flare or EMP.

If the outage is sufficiently large in scale it would be quite the boot strapping enterprise to get things going once again. And in the meantime, NYC (for example) has no food imports, or sewage system.

[Herr Meier]

What is the risk of this happening within 50 years?

If you believe their math, 60%

Assuming a chance of 1.2%/year the correct answer would be 45%.

1 - (1 - 0.012)^50

That was a hard one, wasn't it? I wanted to check if people who have a very strong opinion about science, physics, evolution, economics and peak oil on this forum actually understand high school level math. Apparently not.

[Newfie]

Oh goodie, YOU get a gold star!

[steam_cannon]

What is the risk of this happening within 50 years?

If you believe their math, 60%

Assuming a chance of 1.2%/year the correct answer would be 45%.

1 - (1 - 0.012)^50

That was a hard one, wasn't it? I wanted to check if people who have a very strong opinion about science, physics, evolution, economics and peak oil on this forum actually understand high school level math. Apparently not.

Well that's pretty asinine to disrespect a whole forum because a math question on page 3 of a discussion didn't get an in-depth analysis!

Also I don't think your math is accurate for this kind of calculation. You don't have enough variables. You need to take what is known and adjust to account for long term sun cycles, which over the next 70 years will probably be weaker then usual. So your estimate is probably too high. And if you want to get really picky, your answer should probably be a range adjusting for different sun cycle projections.

This isn't a teen gossip forum. The main reason people post here is to share useful information with other people and to work together to get an idea of which way the wind is blowing and that doesn't have to be exact to be useful. Anyway it's not bad that you copy and pasted a yearly risk equation. Your post would have been appreciated if you weren't a jerk about it. But instead you showed everyone that you think it's ok to use knowledge as an excuse to be disrespectful and that is a quick way to earn legitimate disrespect.

If you want to work on your estimate some more and not be disrespectful, here is some data. There's lots of solar data online.

predictions3_strip.jpg

Long Range Solar Forecast

Solar activity heads for lowest low in four centuries

Also below is an example estimating probability as well as some discussion about when these equations need special care in their application, like natural events with shifting probability due to environmental factors. This is relevant because the sun is a system with majorly shifting environmental factors that would influence the bounds of a flare probability calculation.

Link
In all calculations, we will assume independence. That may not be reasonable in the case of forest fires.

Suppose that the probability of a fire in the course of a month is 0.05, that is, 5%, which is very high for any individual structure.

Then the probability of no fire in the month is 0.95.

The probability of no fire for 12 months in a row is then (0.95)12.

It follows that the probability of at least one fire in a year is 1−(0.95)12.

This is about 0.45964.

For 30 years, the same reasoning gives 1−(0.95)360. This is very close to 1. That may feel counter intuitive. However, as mentioned earlier, the probability that a house has a fire in a given month is very much smaller than 0.05.

Now we look at the problem where we have probability 0.05 each month for 5 months, and 0.10 each month for 7 months. Then the probability of no fire in the 5 months is (0.95)5, and the probability of no fire in the other 7 months is (0.90)7. So the probability of no fire in a year is (0.95)5(0.90)7. It follows that the probability of at least one fire in the year is 1−(0.95)5(0.90)7.
Over 30 years, in the 5-7 scenario, the probability of no fire is ((0.95)5(0.90)7)30=(0.95)150(0.90)210. So the probability of at least one fire is 1−(0.95)150(0.90)210. This is nearly 1.


...We need to be careful. Multiplication is fine if events are independent. But with forest fires, hot day and forest fire are not independent. Same is true for house fires, probably. I imagine in that case fires are more likely on a cold day. – André Nicolas Sep 12 '13 at 2:58

[steam_cannon]

Here are some Government References on the subject. Some Interesting reads:

Nice references, I'll check those out!

[PrestonSturges]

What is the risk of this happening within 50 years?

If you believe their math, 60%

Assuming a chance of 1.2%/year the correct answer would be 45%.

1 - (1 - 0.012)^50

That was a hard one, wasn't it? I wanted to check if people who have a very strong opinion about science, physics, evolution, economics and peak oil on this forum actually understand high school level math. Apparently not.

I did not know the formula but I knew it was the Gambler's Fallacy!

[PrestonSturges]

You're right, although his reluctant first kills shows he was never a military field man and required the services of another veteran to turn the school's students into real Christian soldiers. Something he doubts would ever be possible at a liberal arts college.

That book had a really weird undertone. The town was a prop, no infighting, it was Leave It To Beaver street populated with people talking about how much they miss Reagan. Vietnam veterans everywhere (hey most of them are over 60 in real life). It definitely aimed not just at Fox New viewers, but the folks who watch Huckabee.

Overall it's pretty clear that anyone not belonging to his church is a lower life form. Also I notice he spent a lot of time dumping on other Christian sects - I think he a real hard-on against the Pentacostals.

He borrowed lots and lots and lots of material from Alas Babylon.

He's obviously the main character, and he describes himself as irresistible to women, admired by men, loved by God, respected by his family, and about 4000% more effective in a fight than he'd be in real life. He tosses off a few lines that sound like a man with an ego out of control. I'm sure he got along great with Newt.

[sparky]

.

@ steam cannon . the graph show a prediction for cycle 24 above a Wolf number of 100 , it barely made 65

An X class solar mass ejection would be detected about two days before it hit us , the trajectory is easily calculated
it is the object of constant report for the aeronautical and space industry .

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html ... very official
http://www.solarham.net/ ...My favorite
http://spaceweather.com/ .... more fun ! they even log the meteorites near misses

a super heavy coronal mass ejection would trigger a serie of precautions ,
all the long East / West electric connections might induce stray voltages
at worst a couple of weeks of brown out ,at the very worst a month of localized trouble

if you wish to consider some space troubles , consider an heavy meteor shower disabling satellites
and creating a Kessler effect , broken down pieces junk hitting satellites ,
creating more debris in an avalanche akin to a chain reaction ,it would make space unusable for decades

[steam_cannon]

at worst a couple of weeks of brown out ,at the very worst a month of localized trouble

That's odd you think that would cause brown outs. Historically when Canada was kit by a flare a few years back which cause a short 12 hour blackout, so I would expect black outs. Regarding how long there would be blackouts, the concern for the United States is we have 600+ large transformers that are presently vulnerable according to the NASA article and there is a significant risk a carrington level solar event would burn out many of them taking out the grid for possibly years according to that NASA article, since the parts are large, custom, and not readily replaceable.

NASA is the one that is coming up with the estimate of years with no power. Can you tell me why they are wrong and that a Carrington event would only cause a brownout?

...Analysts believe that a direct hit by an extreme CME such as the one that missed Earth in July 2012 could cause widespread power blackouts, disabling everything that plugs into a wall socket. Most people wouldn't even be able to flush their toilet because urban water supplies largely rely on electric pumps...

...Multi-ton transformers damaged by such a storm might take years to repair.

science.nasa.gov

An X class solar mass ejection would be detected about two days before it hit us , the trajectory is easily calculated
it is the object of constant report for the aeronautical and space industry .

That's interesting, the articles seem not to agree with you but that might be because even though you are right that solar flares can often be predicted, but perhaps the severity is not sufficiently predictable. The article from NASA says:

without NASA's STEREO probes, we might never have known the severity of the 2012 superstorm.

science.nasa.gov

So maybe what this means is they cannot predict if the solar storm will be "very" severe before 15 to 30 minutes before it hits earth?

By the way, good links, I have several apps that use the same data as those space weather sites.