[Lore]

I listened to the audio book version of "One Second After" about an EMP attack. The book has a forward by Newt Gingrich, so it's kinda cheesy. The residents of the small town face TEOTWAWKI partly by whining about how it all would have been OK if the dirty hippies hadn't ruined America.

I read the book. Mostly a neocon's view of the end of days. Where good Christians smite their evil cannibalistic big city dweller enemy hip and thigh and stay mostly unwashed and unrepentant while doing it.

I feel guilty having contributed to this guys pocketbook by buying it.

He pushes the idea of an EMP strike coming from foreign terrorists. Namely, from Iran and North Korea. Probability .001%

[steam_cannon]

It is a worry to think that this also means the nuclear power plant down the road has a 1% chance of going Fukashima every year.

Well, it's not likely that a solar flare would take out a nuclear plant. It's not like backup generators for controlled shutdown of a nuclear plant would fry or drown like with Fukashima because of solar flare. It's possible there would be problems, but it doesn't seem to me like that would be likely. More likely the nuclear plant would have power to share, but no power grid to share it on.

[steam_cannon]

I listened to the audio book version of "One Second After" about an EMP attack. The book has a forward by Newt Gingrich, so it's kinda cheesy. The residents of the small town face TEOTWAWKI partly by whining about how it all would have been OK if the dirty hippies hadn't ruined America.

That's awful, hahaha. But on the other hand I have had self proclaimed "dirty hippies" tell me we should disband the armed forces entirely because they don't do anything we need. And if we listened to that extreme end of the spectrum, even Cuba would steamroll us.

However in this situation, we have scientists suggesting we plan for this kind of solar event and dirty politicians on both sides not doing much. Though it would be interesting if one side or the other picked up on this. I wonder if we will have a "Solar Storm Denier" lobby next. Probably...

[Newfie]

oiy vey, here we go again.

My prep theory for such events is not to prepare for the event but prepare for the idiots and panic that will result from such event.

In the meantime, I guess this makes a good excuse to upgrade my sailboat to something more "liveable"

see ya! Wouldn't want to be ya!

Well, if you are serious then try this...

http://williamesimpson.com

As for us, we have two, both steel, which makes them pretty good options for this type of event, although that did not go into our decision making.

As to modern shipping surviving I don't know about that. Modern merchant ships are very highly automated with a very small crew. If the emp/flare got through to the systems I think they would be in trouble.

Most yachts would be highly vulnerable being made of plastic. Even if the boat systems didn't crash GPS satellites would likely go down, along with other aids to navigation. I think civil aviation would pretty much be toast.

Likely the big ticket item would be high tension transformers. They are vulnerable because they are attached to very long wires that act as antennas, they are the Devil to replace because the US has very limited manufacturing capacity and they and not highly standardized, and there very few spares. Which is why they are also good targets for terrorist.

This is a lot different from y2k because in that it is the personal electronics that were at stake. Here it is the power grid.

[steam_cannon]

By they way, a solar storm isn't going to cause the same kind of damage as an EMP but for anyone interested in some reading about EMP type damage here is a link about Soviet EMP Tests and US transformers.

The 1962 Soviet Nuclear EMP Tests over Kazakhstan
If the United States W49 warhead used for the Starfish Prime test had been used in Test 184, the E3 component would have been more than 5000 nT/min in the Karaganda region. According to recent studies, a disturbance in the present-day United States of 4800 nT/min would likely damage about 365 large transformers in the U.S. power grid, and would leave about 40 percent of the U.S. population without electrical power for as long as 4 to 10 years due to the loss of large transformers that would have to be custom-built (many in other countries, especially if power was not available for the two U.S. plants that are able to make these transformers).

Graham-Loborev.gif

[steam_cannon]

This is a lot different from y2k because in that it is the personal electronics that were at stake. Here it is the power grid.

Well actually a lot of the crazier books on Y2K were convinced that power grid software at the time would go down taking down the grid too. But that was a bunch of hype because the grid doesn't care much about the day of the week and most older software could be set to like 1972 if you needed the calendar to synch up after 2k, so that wasn't going to be a big deal. But solar flares are kind of ironic reflecting back on earlier Y2K claims, because solar flares could cause potential disruptions like what was projected for Y2K, but instead of hypesters pushing the idea, this time it's legitimate physicists from NASA who are warning us. So the subject matter isn't that different, but this is much more serious if only because of the people making the claim.

[PrestonSturges]

He pushes the idea of an EMP strike coming from foreign terrorists. Namely, from Iran and North Korea. Probability .001%

The thing about any foreign sponsored surprise attack is that it had better work. Pearl Harbor was only a partial success. A failed nuclear attack invites massive retaliation.

[Lore]

He pushes the idea of an EMP strike coming from foreign terrorists. Namely, from Iran and North Korea. Probability .001%

The thing about any foreign sponsored surprise attack is that it had better work. Pearl Harbor was only a partial success. A failed nuclear attack invites massive retaliation.

Exactly, proponents of this scenario, like Newt, never mention the sophistication that it would take, or the resulting retribution that would happen after. You'd need three to four technically complex and superior nuclear devices launched and detonated simultaneously at precise altitude from most likely floating vessels off our shores over the US. You'd have to pray that the devastation would be great enough to knock out the massive retaliation that would ensue. Then you remember there are US troops in great numbers and nuclear capable ships and subs all over the planet at any one time capable of reducing any provocateur's homeland to pumice.

[steam_cannon]

He pushes the idea of an EMP strike coming from foreign terrorists. Namely, from Iran and North Korea. Probability .001%

The thing about any foreign sponsored surprise attack is that it had better work. Pearl Harbor was only a partial success. A failed nuclear attack invites massive retaliation.

Assuming we know who did the attack and we retaliate against the right country. Weren't 15 of the 19 9/11 terrorists from Saudi Arabia and we invaded Iraq instead? Sure we had plenty of reasons to liberate Iraq, but in retrospect it kind of looks like we attacked a country different from the one that the terrorists were from. Mind you that was a multinational terrorist organization, so what country to attack in retaliation isn't necessarily clear after such a terrorist attack, but that's my point. That can happen. Mutually assured destruction can work against countries, but multinational groups can be both crazy and hard to pin down.

And speaking of crazies, ISIS for example...

[Lore]

He pushes the idea of an EMP strike coming from foreign terrorists. Namely, from Iran and North Korea. Probability .001%

The thing about any foreign sponsored surprise attack is that it had better work. Pearl Harbor was only a partial success. A failed nuclear attack invites massive retaliation.

Assuming we know who did the attack and we retaliate against the right country. Weren't 15 of the 19 9/11 terrorists from Saudi Arabia and we invaded Iraq instead? Sure we had plenty of reasons to liberate Iraq, but in retrospect it kind of looks like we attacked a country different from the one that the terrorists were from. Mind you that was a multinational terrorist organization, so what country to attack in retaliation isn't necessarily clear after such a terrorist attack, but that's my point. That can happen. Mutually assured destruction can work against countries, but multinational groups can be both crazy and hard to pin down. Speaking of crazies, ISIS for example...

It's pretty likely that several capable vessels doing the deed would be easily detected and identified long before they make it to launch point. Something of this scale and sophistication is pretty hard to keep under wraps in this day and age. It wouldn't be just a simple bunch of terrorist jokers with box cutters doing a hijacking.

[PrestonSturges]

He pushes the idea of an EMP strike coming from foreign terrorists. Namely, from Iran and North Korea. Probability .001%

The thing about any foreign sponsored surprise attack is that it had better work. Pearl Harbor was only a partial success. A failed nuclear attack invites massive retaliation.

Assuming we know who did the attack and we retaliate against the right country. Weren't 15 of the 19 9/11 terrorists from Saudi Arabia and we invaded Iraq instead?.... what country to attack in retaliation isn't necessarily clear after such a terrorist attack, but that's my point..[/url]

IIRC correctly, people were naming Bin Laden as a suspect that day. I don't know at what point it became general knowledge that Bush ignored the Daily Intelligence Briefing which warned of Al Qaeda hijacking and crashing airliners. It was Cheney and the PNAC crew (Wolfowitz etc) that launched their PNAC think tank plan from ~1997 to attack Iraq (which said they needed to get lucky and have a "Pearl Harbor event")

[steam_cannon]

It's pretty likely that several capable vessels doing the deed would be easily detected and identified long before they make it to launch point. Something of this scale and sophistication is pretty hard to keep under wraps in this day and age. It wouldn't be just a simple bunch of terrorist jokers with box cutters doing a hijacking.

In the present we sure do seem to have millions of people who made it over our borders, tunnels into the US, boats and even drug submarines, so I wouldn't go so far as to say our border guard or coast guard is totally infallible. Also if a large container ship or ships were used as a launch platform over the US, they would probably be taken over with box cutters first and then loaded. At least that wouldn't surprise me. IMHO, never underestimate the lowly box-cutter.

So though I'm hopeful the US would prevent an EMP attack from ships, I wouldn't guarantee it either. I've seen Down Periscope.

220px-Down_periscope.jpg

IIRC correctly, people were naming Bin Laden as a suspect that day. I don't know at what point it became general knowledge that Bush ignored the Daily Intelligence Briefing which warned of Al Qaeda hijacking and crashing airliners. It was Cheney and the PNAC crew (Wolfowitz etc) that launched their PNAC think tank plan from ~1997 to attack Iraq (which said they needed to get lucky and have a "Pearl Harbor event")

Yep that sounds about right. Cheney and crew pushed attacking a country he planned out years earlier. Also true that people were naming Bin Laden that day, though he was literally throwing videos at us claiming to be responsible, so Batman was not required to figure that out. But amusingly even knowing who was likely responsible "relatives of bin Laden were able to fly out" when all other American flights were grounded. Heads still attached, no game of thrones stuff either. And we left their country alone. And we only caught/killed Bad Health Bin Laden years after he spend his last years of health sexing up a harem.

Overall, I'd say we gave a really weird mixed message to future terrorist groups.

[PrestonSturges]

Mad Cow Morning News has been tracking the 9-11/Bin Laden/Venice FL connection for years.
http://www.madcowprod.com/
Venice is where some of the hijacker trained at a flight school with long CIA drug running connections, and the airport was humming with jets flying out on 9-11 after all flights were banned. This is about 3 miles from my parent's house.

[steam_cannon]

Here are some books I came across in news discussions on this Solar Flare article...

One Second After (EMP, fiction)

Alas, Babylon (Nuclear, fiction)

Lights Out (EMP, fiction)

After America(Stelar NOVA EMP?, fiction)

Disaster Preparedness for EMP Attacks and Solar Storms (EMP and Solar Flares, non-fiction)

[PrestonSturges]

I remember "Alas babylon" as a pretty good book. You can find "Alas, Babylon" in pdf on line and here is an article about author Pat Frank, who was apparently a legendary party monster

http://jacksonville.com/lifestyles/2009 ... ears_later

[Keith_McClary]

IIRC correctly, people were naming Bin Laden as a suspect that day. I don't know at what point it became general knowledge that Bush ignored the Daily Intelligence Briefing which warned of Al Qaeda hijacking and crashing airliners. It was Cheney and the PNAC crew (Wolfowitz etc) that launched their PNAC think tank plan from ~1997 to attack Iraq (which said they needed to get lucky and have a "Pearl Harbor event")

Yep that sounds about right. Cheney and crew pushed attacking a country he planned out years earlier. Also true that people were naming Bin Laden that day, though he was literally throwing videos at us claiming to be responsible, so Batman was not required to figure that out.

Not until 2004:
In the 2004 Osama bin Laden video, bin Laden abandoned his denials without retracting past statements.
but he may have been lying to get an idiot re-elected:
Ron Suskind noted that the CIA analysis of the video led them to the consensus view that the tape was designed strategically to help President Bush win reelection in 2004.
There is no evidence AFAIK that bin Laden (and not some independent Gulf/Saudi based organization, as evidence suggests) did 9/11 .

[Pops]

The difference between Y2k, the Mayan calendar thing, any number of armageddon prophecies and most other threats (PO, GW, solar flair, volcanos, earthquakes, wildfire, tornado, obesity, etc, etc) is they have an expiration date instead of a probability.

People gamble they'll do OK with the probabilities, they get excited about deadlines tho.

--
Lights Out is a good story, I read it in installments as "HalfFast" wrote it and posted it to a message board way back - in 2000 or 2001 - the board was Y2k.com LOL (or maybe frugalsquirrels.com?)

Alas Babylon was The Original Nuke survivalist book, still pretty good 50 years later. It started the whole genre of the modern reluctant survivalist hero who is forced, reluctantly and surprisingly efficiently, to kill everyone in sight who is not in his tribe.

Nuke survival skills PDF
http://www.nukepills.com/docs/nuclear_w ... skills.pdf

[steam_cannon]

Not until 2004
but he may have been lying to get an idiot re-elected...
There is no evidence AFAIK that bin Laden (and not some independent Gulf/Saudi based organization, as evidence suggests) did 9/11 .

Well it sounds like you know 9/11 stuff better then I do. But I am knowledgeable about Down Periscope.

[dinopello]

The difference between Y2k...

Yes, one big difference with Y2K is the date certain.

The other difference is that the problem and solution were very well defined, the solution was funded to the tune of several hundred billion dollars and 15 years (at least) was spent addressing and correcting the problem worldwide.

The thing that makes Y2K seem even remotely comparable is that there was a cottage industry in selling scary books about all the societal problems that would occur, assuming that the (well understood) technical issue was not addressed. However, in that case the issue had a technical solution and was addressed.

[Lore]

That was one of the faults of "One Second After". The reluctant hero was a college professor of a Christian college based loosely on the author himself. All of sudden this pacifist becomes a military tactical genius and a killing machine out of nowhere. Aside from having to buy into the improbable scenario, but hay it's a work of fiction, you have to get pummeled with the conservative guns, beans and Jesus line throughout the book along the lines of James Wesley Rawles.