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Name Yer Bubble

For discussions of events and conditions not necessarily related to Peak Oil.

Name Yer Bubble

Unread postby Pops » Wed 06 May 2015, 09:20:17

So we had Tech-No.com bubble, Liar-Loan Bundling Bubble, Oil/Commodities Speculative Bubble, then the Fracked-Up-Beyond-Recognition Bubble so what's next?...

What is the next bubble to pop?

Students loans?
Naw, the government alread bailed out the students
Image

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Bonds?

Maybe. Bond are seen safer than a mason jar buried in the back yard. In fact investors actually pay for the safety, US$1,9 TRILLION in EU bonds are earning negative interest.

But, there are $15 Trillionin bonds outstanding on financial corporations ... talk about yer air-ball, obligations on Money-For-Nothin! Yeow!

--
Still, my guess is stocks, Here is the story, here is the picture:

Image
"fair Market Value (bottom chart) is just total market value to GDP — anything over 100 being "overvalued."

And of course the "equity" is all borrowed:
Image
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Re: Name Yer Bubble

Unread postby Pops » Wed 06 May 2015, 09:47:44

Pops wrote:Bonds?

Maybe.

Still, my guess is stocks


LOL, All I gotta do is make a guess and the world immediately sets out to prove me wrong:

(Reuters) - A worldwide sell-off in government bonds deepened on Wednesday, with the rise in long-term borrowing costs to their highest level this year spreading unease across all assets and putting stock markets under pressure too.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Name Yer Bubble

Unread postby Pops » Wed 06 May 2015, 09:48:13

The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Name Yer Bubble

Unread postby dinopello » Wed 06 May 2015, 10:47:35

It's going to be student loans - that bubble hasn't even started inflating. Student loans fueled by affordable online degree programs and new government programs.
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Re: Name Yer Bubble

Unread postby Pops » Wed 06 May 2015, 14:58:52

This is all really beyond me, I have a hard time figuring out which exclaimation point is on the point

Maybe stocks would have risen anyway due to record high earnings and improvements in the economy. That’s possible, isn’t it?

Nope. Not according to Morgan Stanley at least. Check it out:

“Since 2012, more than 50% of EPS growth in the S&P 500 has been driven by buybacks and growth ex-buybacks has been a mere 3.3% annualized. (EPS: Earnings Per Share)


“More than 50% “! There’s your market summary in one damning sentence. No buybacks means no 5-year stock market rally. Period. If it wasn’t for financial engineering and the Fed’s easy money, stocks would be in the same general location as the real economy, circling the plughole, that is.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/05/06/ ... et-richer/
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Re: Name Yer Bubble

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 06 May 2015, 15:46:53

I've been patiently short (and wrong) bonds via being long ETF's like TBT and later TTT since 2009.

I've learned not to trust "head fakes" like the last few weeks, but I keep hopin that EVENTUALLY sanity will prevail.

To me, the negative interest rates on euro area government bonds is flagrant enough to hope that the end of the bond mania is finally within sight.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Name Yer Bubble

Unread postby Pops » Wed 06 May 2015, 17:32:13

Guess I'd better keep my mouth shut, I know Jan reads my stuff every day ...

U.S. stocks fell on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen drew attention to elevated valuations in the equity market.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-f ... 1430914380
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Re: Name Yer Bubble

Unread postby ennui2 » Wed 06 May 2015, 20:23:16

There's a bubble in mobile right now, mobile social apps and mobile gaming. It feels very much like the dot com bubble where all the things that used to be on a dot com (pets.com) are now moving to apps. The money from the investment community flowing into these things is nothing short of insane. There was another one of Greer's posts I read back on recently where he belies that everyone's staring at screens, and because everyone's staring at screens that this bubble is happening. Wherever people are putting most of their attention, money flows into. I don't know how or when, but this growth is not sustainable, especially since so many of these Yo style apps aren't worth jack.
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Re: Name Yer Bubble

Unread postby Timo » Wed 06 May 2015, 21:35:27

The dollar is the next bubble, and it's about to go POP!
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Re: Name Yer Bubble

Unread postby EdwinSm » Thu 07 May 2015, 06:53:55

Gum????
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Re: Name Yer Bubble

Unread postby ennui2 » Thu 07 May 2015, 09:52:24

pstarr wrote:Ennui2, it's not that these Apps are not useful


Sure, they won't make their money back, but in addition to that, In many cases they are also useless.
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Re: Name Yer Bubble

Unread postby GoghGoner » Thu 07 May 2015, 17:05:18

Junk bonds, stocks, and bonds all deflate together. Pop.

Carl Icahn Calls U.S Junk Bond Market 'Toxic'

On last Saturday's episode of Wall Street Week, Carl Icahn said that the U.S. junk bond market was even more dangerous than the stock market at current valuations. He called the market 'ridiculously high' ('toxic' in financial parlance) and said that he was amazed that money was still pouring into the sector. He said that when the market begins to go south (which will happen soon) people will start running for the exit. Incidentally, the high yield market has the highest returns of any other fixed interest financial instrument till now.
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Re: Name Yer Bubble

Unread postby MD » Thu 07 May 2015, 17:17:15

We're looking at a cluster f*ck of bubbles. Too many to call out just one.

omg
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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