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Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial Civ

For discussions of events and conditions not necessarily related to Peak Oil.

Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial Civilization

Peak Oil
12
20%
Climate change
11
18%
Nuclear War
4
7%
Social upheaval
9
15%
Water/Food shortages
3
5%
Economic chaos.
18
30%
Disease/Pandemic
3
5%
 
Total votes : 60

Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 12 Aug 2016, 06:36:50

Peak, I agree.
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Fri 12 Aug 2016, 07:35:52

All of these Peak Oil, Climate change, Nuclear War,Social upheaval,Water/Food shortages,Disease/Pandemic would cause Economic chaos.
Economic chaos could cause social upheaval, water/food shortage and nuclear war.
Peak oil,nuclear or climate change could food and water shortage and social upheaval.

Really they are all pretty related but without personal/local economic collapse you could buy your way out of most of it,buy more food or more water, build a fall out shelter,go to a hospital, move to a gated community or get more guns,get a bigger aircon and build a shade house.
It doesnt work that way though economic collapse is the one that will get us
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 12 Aug 2016, 19:07:51

Good point Monkey. However it can seen inversely. Economic downturn/collapse can leave individuals and society vulnerable to many other doom scenarios. In fact we see this in poor countries already like Venezuela. So economic threats work together with other threats
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby dunewalker » Sat 13 Aug 2016, 10:13:02

I think cyber or otherwise attack on the US electric grid is the most likely catalyst. If the US grid goes down for an extended period, say more than a week, the results would precipitate an economic collapse which could easily extend globally within days. Grid-down could happen anytime from today onward with no warning.
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 13 Aug 2016, 14:52:31

pstarr wrote:dune, wouldn't that require an EMP attack? In short . . . a declaration of nuclear war. I don't think that will happen.

What about the The Olduvai Theory. How abrupt and widespread will electrical interruptions or blackouts be. I think this is going to closely track the overall downward spiral
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby dunewalker » Sat 13 Aug 2016, 20:01:07

pstarr wrote:dune, wouldn't that require an EMP attack? In short . . . a declaration of nuclear war. I don't think that will happen.


That's one way, but not necessarily precipitating nuclear war. For instance, North Korea is capable of exploding emp nuke in space over US, doesn't mean it's all-out nuclear war to follow. But I mean more like computer hacking of grid control centers, or such.
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 13 Aug 2016, 20:18:58

Rumors seem to be swirling that a sort of covert WWIII is already underway via hacking and computer warfare
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 01 Nov 2016, 15:34:47

https://theintercept.com/2016/10/13/pen ... st-cities/
The year is 2030. Forget about the flying cars, robot maids, and moving sidewalks we were promised. They’re not happening. But that doesn’t mean the future is a total unknown.

According to a startling Pentagon video obtained by The Intercept, the future of global cities will be an amalgam of the settings of “Escape from New York” and “Robocop” — with dashes of the “Warriors” and “Divergent” thrown in. It will be a world of Robert Kaplan-esque urban hellscapes — brutal and anarchic supercities filled with gangs of youth-gone-wild, a restive underclass, criminal syndicates, and bands of malicious hackers.

Well, I guess this report is for internal consumption. Because on mainstream media outlets it is still about our bright techno future
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 01 Nov 2016, 18:30:44

onlooker wrote:
pstarr wrote:dune, wouldn't that require an EMP attack? In short . . . a declaration of nuclear war. I don't think that will happen.

What about the The Olduvai Theory. How abrupt and widespread will electrical interruptions or blackouts be. I think this is going to closely track the overall downward spiral

So in your mind technologies to help mitigate the problem in the short to moderate term, like generators and solar installations don't exist? These will be increasing in number and power over time, by the way.

I was pleasantly surprised by the Tesla announcement of the new solar tiles. Something like that would get me to go solar when I replace my roof, for example (once we get beyond the initial marketing hype, assuming the price isn't unreasonable. Given it's Tesla, I won't hold my breath, but I'm hopeful).

In the mean time, my power outages last roughly 30 seconds, until the whole house generator kicks in and provides me up to 90 peak amps and 75 continuous amps. Considering I only got it to about 35 Amps by running stuff like the A/C, stove, microwave, hair dryer, fans, lights, etc. when load testing it with the electrician -- somehow, I think I'm covered.

But with the solar roof tiles, it would be great to have two backup systems, and use a lot less utility electricity as well.

...

Instead of a "downward spiral", I see a reduction in risk over coming decades as solar becomes more and more common, and smart electronics makes things like whole house generators more affordable and more robust, and thus more viable for more homeowners to afford.

Now, I know, that doesn't conform to hyping "Industrial Collapse", which is the theme of this thread, but logic and data suggest I point this out.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 01 Nov 2016, 18:36:38

How does smart electronics make generators more affordable?
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 17 Nov 2016, 16:13:00

This article points to the synergy of adverse environmental factors and social upheaval in places with tenuous social fabrics.
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-r ... -countries
Climate disasters increase risk of armed conflict in multi-ethnic countries
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 18 Nov 2016, 11:08:44

dunewalker wrote:
pstarr wrote:dune, wouldn't that require an EMP attack? In short . . . a declaration of nuclear war. I don't think that will happen.


That's one way, but not necessarily precipitating nuclear war. For instance, North Korea is capable of exploding emp nuke in space over US, doesn't mean it's all-out nuclear war to follow. But I mean more like computer hacking of grid control centers, or such.


Somewhere I read 7 guys with high power rifles and some knowledge could do it. Can't recall the source but I get the concept. There is a place over the St Lawrence where the power feeds to the US cross. On the US side the lines Riss cross so that if the correct tower was brought down or line broke it would create chaos to the entire NE.

HV transformers are very vulnerable. Very exposed. Very hard to replace. May take more than an 06 but it's doable.

A few 2 man squads could wreck havoc.
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 18 Nov 2016, 17:16:40

I am starting to think a financial Armageddon may be the catalyst to really get collapse going. The situation with Debt is dire and at some point you have to believe the Stock Markets and such will have do deal with some dose of reality in figuring out the current economic status of everything and everyone. Warren Buffet said Derivatives are economic WMD
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby Pops » Fri 18 Nov 2016, 17:49:00

Newfie wrote:Somewhere I read 7 guys with high power rifles and some knowledge could do it.

Shoot holes in the transformers, the oil that keeps them cool leaks out, they burn up... don't forget to disable the warning indicators
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalf_sniper_attack

I'd guess some holes in the system (sorta speak) have been plugged by now
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby Cog » Fri 18 Nov 2016, 18:08:43

5.56 FMJ will penetrate 1/4" steel with no problem. With M855 steel core ammo slightly more penetration at longer ranges. 30.06 ammo will penetrate about 3/4" mild steel. More depending on if you are using AP rounds or not.

I don't know if transformer cases are steel or aluminum but a modern rifle would have no problem going through either of them. I'm guessing transformers are made out of aluminum which is a much softer metal. I don't intend to get close enough to one to find out. Electricity kills.
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 18 Nov 2016, 18:33:50

onlooker wrote:I am starting to think a financial Armageddon may be the catalyst to really get collapse going. The situation with Debt is dire and at some point you have to believe the Stock Markets and such will have do deal with some dose of reality in figuring out the current economic status of everything and everyone. Warren Buffet said Derivatives are economic WMD

Look closely at what is happening in India right now, the government has outlawed something like 85% of all the banknotes in circulation. The notes are no longer legal tender and the only way to "spend" them is to go to a bank and exchange them for new notes.

Why India wiped out 86% of its cash overnight
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-37974423

India is in the middle of an extraordinary economic experiment.

On 8 November, Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave only four hours' notice that virtually all the cash in the world's seventh-largest economy would be effectively worthless.

The Indian government likes to use the technical term "demonetisation" to describe the move, which makes it sound rather dull. It isn't. This is the economic equivalent of "shock and awe".


Cartoons of how 'cashless' Indians are coping
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-37975428
With Indians struggling to get cash after the government's surprise decision to scrap 500 and 1,000 rupee notes overnight, ingenuity has come to the fore. The BBC's Ayeshea Perera looks at five ways people have been making do.


The problem is that India was a cash economy, the government has killed that economy in one knockout blow.

What they want is for everyone to have bank accounts and their money to be accountable for tax.

Parts of Indian society has reverted to barter to maintain normality, the bottom line is that collapse won't be allowed to happen without a real fight.

The elites could easily "do an Indian" and eliminate the debt(and the savings their repayment depend on) at the stroke of a pen.
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 18 Nov 2016, 18:50:06

This occurrence in India can provide a rehearsal for how things will develop in rich Western countries. The Debt situation is becoming untenable as overinflated asset prices and vast overflowing liquidity is setting the stage for a super duper Stagflation period. Not to mention the wobbling Oil Industry. Under these collapse pressures do not expect any more credit to be offered but rather a hunkering down of Economies to attempt to increase domestic production and stimulate employment. It will not work but in provides a glimpse into an opposite effect to the situation in India in which cash and even barter economies will spring up in response to all these economic disturbances.
Seems thus that India is reading the wrong tea leaves.
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 18 Nov 2016, 20:16:13

Pops wrote:
Newfie wrote:Somewhere I read 7 guys with high power rifles and some knowledge could do it.

Shoot holes in the transformers, the oil that keeps them cool leaks out, they burn up... don't forget to disable the warning indicators
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalf_sniper_attack

I'd guess some holes in the system (sorta speak) have been plugged by now

I refrain from posting such technical what ifs. Other people that have never heard about such capabilities don't need to get a heads up from us while we are just chewing the fat.
Please think before you post.
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 18 Nov 2016, 21:11:01

Dolan,
I agree wholeheartedly that the financial system works on trust. But our system is not like Indias. Hard to see the connection beyond the point that each system is vulnerable to manipulation.

Elsewhere I've postulated we are seeing an tide change in Westeren culture. It's possible some equally disturbing event can take place here or in Europe. That is disturbing. But not likely knowable beforehand.
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