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Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial Civ

For discussions of events and conditions not necessarily related to Peak Oil.

Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial Civilization

Peak Oil
12
20%
Climate change
11
18%
Nuclear War
4
7%
Social upheaval
9
15%
Water/Food shortages
3
5%
Economic chaos.
18
30%
Disease/Pandemic
3
5%
 
Total votes : 60

Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby Lore » Mon 25 Jul 2016, 07:24:19

Peak oil is not about the complete loss of fossil fuels. We will have oil and its derivatives for many years to come. It's about the cost of cheap abundant energy.

Also, peak oil is a threat, but it's just one of many right now that are converging as overpopulation stresses earth's natural resources and the environment.

The one thing about oil is that we have alternatives. Not replacements, but energy we can use in combination with the old sources to get us to a new level of sustainability.

I believe picking any single threat is an incomplete scenario as to how industrial civilization will collapse. Usually, societies fold with a series of body blows.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 25 Jul 2016, 08:11:43

OVER POPULATION

it's not on the list but the root of all the above.

I think that illustrates the depth of the taboo surrounding overshoot.

BUT....a good thread. Helps clarify priorities.
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby dolanbaker » Mon 25 Jul 2016, 09:02:35

Newfie wrote:OVER POPULATION

it's not on the list but the root of all the above.

I think that illustrates the depth of the taboo surrounding overshoot.

BUT....a good thread. Helps clarify priorities.

Overpopulation only becomes a real factor when you remove the safety valve of migration, as things are, there are still some space in places like the Americas for the Asian overshoot!

As for the original poll, It has to be Nuclear war, a few well placed air blasts and it's goodbye economy!
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 25 Jul 2016, 09:15:17

Newfie wrote:OVER POPULATION

it's not on the list but the root of all the above.

I think that illustrates the depth of the taboo surrounding overshoot.

BUT....a good thread. Helps clarify priorities.

Agreed that overpopulation in the root instigator however as an analogy a person leads a sedentary life and eats too much thus gaining much weight which leads to high blood pressure or diabetes or clogged arteries. That medical profile then becomes the immediate cause of death either via stroke or heart attack. So, while we can all agree about your point Newf, my poll is attempting to be specific as to the direct cause and timing of collapse. I will add that I am surprised more did not chose water/food shortages or Pandemic. It seems that the third world is optimally set up for some sort of large scale famine accompanied by disease/pandemic. This will then totally unravel the global trade system and then lead to massive economic failure in all countries. So the direct cause would most likely under this scenario be a Pandemic as an attempt will probably be made to provide humanitarian aid (food) but the situation on the ground will be so chaotic and people so weak and defenseless heath wise that some sort of virulent infectious bacteria/virus should quickly spread and overwhelm the poor countries in affected areas. The most likely area would probably be Asia.
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 25 Jul 2016, 11:54:20

Cog wrote:But what does the word expensive mean? If I drill, frack, go to the Arctic, no matter what I do on that front, does there not come a time when there simply isn't any more oil to be had? Regardless of price?

I get that expensive oil has an affect on global economies. No money for consumer items. Is not expensive oil reflective of the ease of extraction?

Just sort of throwing it out there.


While you make some good points I selected social upheaval. Without a culture where police and courts maintain order everything else falls apart. If any of those expensive oil sources you name are necessary to maintain civilization the fiat money system could be manipulated to make the resources cheaper by distributing the cost over much more of the economy instead of directly as energy cost. Say taxes on soft drinks used to subsidize expensive oil, things like that can hide the real costs.

Take away law and order and the economy falls apart. Are you going to commute 20-50 miles to work if you have to run the gamut of different gang wars trying to secure the territories between where you live and were you work? Make no mistake, in failed states where the society collapses that is absolutely what happens, you live in one local control zone and do not venture out without risk of being assaulted, robbed or killed. Modern Americans have no idea what life in a city state existence was like, but if the law and order fails they will find out very very quickly.
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Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
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Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby steam_cannon » Mon 25 Jul 2016, 12:09:36

I'll add natural disasters besides climate change to your list... So natural disasters that could weaken or cause the collapse of large countries and rearrange the world stage.

Electromagnetic dangers:

- Solar storms like the "carrington event" where all the wires fry.
"1 in 8 Chance of Catastrophic Solar Megastorm by 2020"
http://www.wired.com/2012/02/massive-solar-flare/

Geological dangers:

- If the "madrid fault" moves again, that would wipe out buildings, bridges, industry and many many people in a good half of the southern us.
"The USGS recently issued a fact sheet reiterating the estimate of a 10% chance of a New Madrid earthquake of magnitude comparable to those of 1811–1812 within the next 50 years". "The earthquakes were felt as far away as New York City and Boston, where ground motion caused church bells to ring." A lot of modern things break if you shake them enough to make church bells ring...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Madrid_Seismic_Zone
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby careinke » Mon 25 Jul 2016, 12:39:37

I think the biggest threat is the loss of topsoil, 1/1/2 inches per year. So I choose famine/ water shortage as it is the closest to my guess.
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby jedrider » Mon 25 Jul 2016, 12:45:08

careinke wrote:I think the biggest threat is the loss of topsoil, 1/1/2 inches per year. So I choose famine/ water shortage as it is the closest to my guess.


We're getting very good an re-arranging the deck chairs. However, famine means 'no deck chairs'. Then, we'll know.
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby steam_cannon » Mon 25 Jul 2016, 14:13:35

careinke wrote:I think the biggest threat is the loss of topsoil, 1/1/2 inches per year. So I choose famine/ water shortage as it is the closest to my guess.
Yeah top soil is another big threat. I think that will impact third world economies first as grain prices rise. Including starvation for many. Though that may also be good for some of those economies if we can't flood them with low priced grain, their farmers could get back to farming, a simplification perhaps but Haiti might benefit from that. Anyway, it will also mean crashing food exports in the US which would have economic fallout for us. It's slow, but soil loss definitely has the potential destabilize civilizations and economies. Soil loss is definitely one of those big problems that needs attention if civilization is going to continue.
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 25 Jul 2016, 18:51:04

Onlooker,

I accept your clarification and accordingly vote for economic upheaval. Our global economy rests on trust, global trust. Many things could disrupt that trust and send us into chaos overnight.
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 25 Jul 2016, 21:08:11

Multiple crises amplifying each other:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... g-collapse
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby rdberg1957 » Mon 01 Aug 2016, 15:04:57

I voted for social upheaval as the proximate cause to collapse. Many of the others such as climate change, water shortages, etc will create social upheaval. Economic chaos will create social unrest.
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 01 Aug 2016, 16:11:42

dolanbaker wrote:
Newfie wrote:OVER POPULATION

it's not on the list but the root of all the above.

I think that illustrates the depth of the taboo surrounding overshoot.

BUT....a good thread. Helps clarify priorities.

Overpopulation only becomes a real factor when you remove the safety valve of migration, as things are, there are still some space in places like the Americas for the Asian overshoot!

As for the original poll, It has to be Nuclear war, a few well placed air blasts and it's goodbye economy!

:lol: Where are you going to migrate to? Mars?
I agree with Newfie that world over population is the main driver or root cause of the problem.
I voted for economic chaos, as any of the others will lead to that plus with current debt loads it might trigger collapse all by itself.
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby dolanbaker » Mon 01 Aug 2016, 16:59:51

Look at all the unoccupied space in South America around the Amazon basin for starters, you would have to kiss goodbye to the remaining rainforests though.
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 01 Aug 2016, 21:02:03

Dolan,
I think you just made our point.
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby dolanbaker » Tue 02 Aug 2016, 04:02:19

The point is that humans have teraformed all the areas around the planet that are easily accessible, it's only a small step to going after the less accessible areas.
Which will happen first, total transformation of the Earth's surface to suit human activity, or total collapse of the ecosystem.
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 02 Aug 2016, 07:52:41

dolanbaker wrote:The point is that humans have teraformed all the areas around the planet that are easily accessible, it's only a small step to going after the less accessible areas.
Which will happen first, total transformation of the Earth's surface to suit human activity, or total collapse of the ecosystem.


Is that not a direct consequence of over population?
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby dolanbaker » Tue 02 Aug 2016, 16:11:11

Newfie wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:The point is that humans have teraformed all the areas around the planet that are easily accessible, it's only a small step to going after the less accessible areas.
Which will happen first, total transformation of the Earth's surface to suit human activity, or total collapse of the ecosystem.


Is that not a direct consequence of over population?

It is.
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 02 Aug 2016, 19:16:54

OK, guess I misunderstood you somewhere.
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Re: Most immediate threat or cause of collapse of Industrial

Unread postby Peak_Yeast » Fri 12 Aug 2016, 04:37:54

Death by a 1000 cuts. Who is to say which was the fatal one?

As mentioned we already have collapsed states: We already have collapsed economies, bombed out countries, collapse from lack of resources, collapses from either natural or degraded environment.

I find that with an organism as diverse and large as the world civilisation there can and will not be a single cause (overpopulation perhaps, but that is not an option).

I might have misunderstood the premises even after reading the comments. :-(

It might look like that afterwards - where you can say this final blow made it topple and collapse. But it probably wouldnt have happened without the 999 other cuts.

It is a little like other organisms: We can tolerate a lot of problems, but suddenly and without warning when a new slight problem arises the immunesystem is overwhelmed and collapses. But it wasnt the weight of the final straw that was the driver of it all.

And so I believe it is semi-random which event that we can point to as the perpetrator of our collapse and only after it happened.
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