[Cid_Yama]

Israel's intelligence community has gained possession of fragments of information hinting at plans for a Hezbollah revenge attack in coordination with Iran and Syria. Although this intelligence is partial and unfocused, it was enough to send into high alert troops of the Israel Defense Forces at the northern border.

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The Purim holiday coincides with the end of a 40-day mourning period for Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh, who was killed in a car bombing in Syria last month. Israel has denied involvement, but the Lebanese guerrilla group has blamed Israel and vowed revenge.

The 40-day mourning period ends Saturday.

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There is a Jewish Holiday, Purim, that commemorates the deliverance of Persian Jews from a great and evil oppressor, not unlike the evil current day oppressor and hater, in the same place and in the same land.

As recounted in the Book of Esther, in that time, the King appointed a regent, Haman, who publicly announced that he would eradicate the Jews.

The people, he said, would take up arms and would eliminate the Jews, once and for all. The Regent, Haman, believed that if he could intoxicate the people of Persia with hate for the Jews, they would not see the path of destruction the Kingdom was to unleash in the quest for more power and a greater empire. The peace of the nation would be shaken as they were led from a time of quiet into a time of upheaval.

He casts lots to choose the date on which to do this - the thirteenth of the month of Adar.

That's tomorrow.

As in days of old, Iran is once more threatening the People and House of Israel.

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<b>Israeli air strike on Gaza</b>

Israel's air force has attacked a group of Islamic Jihad militants in the northern Gaza Strip, wounding three of them as well as a bystander, the faction and hospital officials said.

An Israeli military spokesman confirmed the air strike in the town of Beit Lahiya, saying it targeted two senior Islamic Jihad members who had been involved in cross-border rocket fire.

Islamic Jihad resumed its salvoes against the Jewish state last week after Israeli troops killed four of its members in the occupied West Bank.

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<b>Egyptians again cancel trip to Israel</b>

Egyptian intelligence chief Gen. Omar Suleiman Tuesday delayed a trip to Israel alleging Israel's "lack of commitment" to end the conflict in Gaza.

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<b>Israel Denies Warship Entered Lebanese Waters</b>

Israel denied claims by the Lebanese army that one of its warships had briefly entered Lebanese territorial waters and was intercepted by an Italian ship operating there as part of the UN peacekeeping force.

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some of the missiles Iran transfered to Hezbollah have a maximum range of 300 kilometers, "capable of reaching the Dimona area from Beirut." According to intelligence so far available to Israel, the maximum range of missiles in Hezbollah's arsenal had been 250 kilometers.

Beiditz said that the missiles currently in Hezbollah's possession are more accurate and capable of carrying larger warheads.

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I could see this stroking Amenijad's ego to see himself fulfilling the edict of Haman.

The Israeli's also will identify with the Jews from Esther fending off the attack of the Persians.

Some powerful Biblical Archtypes going on here.

[canis_lupus]

* yawn *

[americandream]

Religion and culture messes with the mind.

[joeltrout]

Some powerful Biblical Archtypes going on here.

No camping trips to the Valley of Armageddon .

joeltrout

[alecifel]

Great, just what the world needs. Fighting between Jews and Arabs. Terrible!

What else is new?

[Cid_Yama]

<b>The Arming of the Middle-East</b>

Syria has been provided with state of the art anti-aircraft defenses that recently forced Israel to violate Turkish airspace to strike a target within Syria, rather than just cross Syrian airspace as they had done with impunity in the past.

Russia has also supplied Iran with the air defense systems.

Russia has outfitted Syria with both Mig-31E's and Mig 29M/M2 aircraft. Russia has also supplied Syria with Strelets Ballistic Missiles and Pantsir-S1E artillery missile systems.

Iran and Syria over the last several years have worked to ensure their armed forces can work in concert. Also, Iran regularly bases it's fighters in Syria as part of a mutual defense pact.

Syria has more troops and tanks than Israel and the addition of Russian aircraft and air defense systems puts Syria on parity with Israel in the air. Russia has modernized 1,000 of Syria's T-72 tanks and has provided them with T-90Cs.

Russia is also believed to have provided Syria with the 9M123 anti-tank missile system. This missile is both radar and laser guided and can take out the latest generation of main battle tanks like the M1A2 from 3.75 miles away, giving it a greater range than most main battle tanks.

Russia has deepened and upgraded the port facilities at Tartus in Syria with the intention of housing their Mediterranean Fleet there.
Air defense systems around Tartus are the the most advanced Russia has and are manned by Russian personnel.

A naval group flagged by the Missile Cruiser Moskva is now based there. Russia has also provided Syria with 2 project 1650 diesel submarines, considered the quietest in the world.

Iran now has Ballistic Missile systems that can strike anywhere in Israel from Iran.

Hezbollah in Lebanon have now been armed with Ballistic Missiles that can strike Israel from Beirut and no longer need to base in southern Lebanon to strike Israel.

Hezbollah has also been provided with C-802/Noor Anti-ship cruise missiles. One of these severely damaged one of Israel's most modern corvettes, the Hanit, last year.

Israel, last year, recovered Russian made 9m133 guided anti-tank missiles from Lebanon showing that, these too have been provided to Hezbollah.

On top of all this, Egypt has been having discussions with Iran and Syria and has been accused of allowing the arming of Hamas in the Gaza by way of the Sinai. It is also believed that they are allowing Hamas to establish a base in the Sinai.

China has provided Iran with a wide range of weapons systems.

Chinese-Iranian Weapons

So what does all this mean?

The answer is, <b>A shift in the balance of power in the Middle East has occurred. They now have the capability to take the fight to Israel, not just defend against them.</b> It appears they intend to do so.

Consider this.

If Iran and Syria become involved in an Israeli war, Iran would strike US assets pre-emptively. Both Israel and the US presence in the Middle East could come to an end. With the US also teetering on the brink of financial collapse, this could signal the end of the US as a global power.

[mos6507]

Great, just what the world needs. Fighting between Jews and Arabs. Terrible!

What else is new?

Cid Yama trying to stir up rumors of war. What else is new?

[Kaj]

Cid - submarines, anti-air, anti tank all seem like defensive measures to me.

As for Iran's ballistic weapons - isn't Israel covered by its Arrow defence system?

And in an all out war, how could any of that compete against Israel's nuclear option?

I think the Muslim countries know that they cannot risk attacking Israel any more. They want to cover themselves against limited strikes/occupations by the regional and global hegemon. As they grow in power I can only see a big stalemate.

[alecifel]

Syria and Egypt had an overwhelming firepower advantage in 1967. They still lost.

What you have to understand is that Russia has armed the Arab states and also trained them. Warsaw Pact military doctrine is based on receding parallel lines for defense - they are almost impenetrable when they are being attacked. But they know squat about offense. They depend on rigid supply lines that are vulnerable to air attack.

Parity doesn't come from weapons, it comes from the men who operate them. It will be a cold day in Hell when Arabs are able to outmaneuver Israelis at anything other than a camel race.

If you want to see how such a war would turn out - and how long it would last - look no further than the German invasion of Poland (1939) and the US invasion of Iraq (2003), both nearly identical attacks. If Iran and Syria start a conflict, it will be over in 30 days. Israel will occupy Syria in less than two weeks, their air forces will knock out Iran's power infrastructure and then US troops will enter Iran from both sides (Iraq and Afghanistan) and put Ahmadinejad in the gallows.

Then we just have to put up with guerilla attacks THERE for five years or so.

[eastbay]

And in an all out war, how could any of that compete against Israel's nuclear option?

If I might interject here. There is just about zero empirical evidence for this, most importantly including no nuclear testing and no traces of nuclear weapons production infrastructure. I strongly suspect it's another hoax and I also suspect the Arabs are well aware.

[Kaj]

Syria and Egypt had an overwhelming firepower advantage in 1967. They still lost...

Parity doesn't come from weapons, it comes from the men who operate them...

Then we just have to put up with guerilla attacks THERE for five years or so.

Its a strange truism that a force trapped in an inferior position always fight better; it forces human ingenuity. Hence Israel pulled every punch possible in its wars. Hence poor guerillas like Hezbollah are regarded as one of Israel's biggest threat (against expansion, not existential).

That being said, you think that Israel could occupy Syria within 2 weeks when it failed to secure itself in southern Lebanon in 4?
Is that because Syria doesn't have Hezbollah, or are you exaggerating a tad?
Syria's population is about 2/3 of that of Iraq.

Israel could probably blow the hell out of its neighbours' infrastructures, but I doubt it could occupy anything for long.

[alecifel]

The Israeli occupation of Lebanon was under different circumstances. More of a "police action" to try and shut down Hezbollah, which was never given enough men or material to effectively do the job.

In the scenario being presented to us here, where they are facing a direct attack from a military force of significance, they would certainly put boots on the streets in Damascus. While I don't think they could sustain it for any length of time, they can certainly hold it long enough to ensure a complete removal of the regime in charge. The Israelis, unlike the Americans, do not care about "rebuilding". (No interest in having a friendly regime with favorable oil export terms) They'll leave it in chaos and if trouble emerges later, they'll just go back and bomb the crap out of them again.

[ConcernedConsumer]

Wouldnt you call 15000 (Israeli) troops enough? Specially when they were faced with 2000-3000 Hezbollah soldiers. And they still failed to achieve their objectives.
I believe in a symmetrical conflict with their superior weapons Israel could beat any regional army (like they did in hte past) in a matter of days. Thats why Iran and its little protege (Hezbollah) highly depend on asymmetrical methods. Thats why they have so far been successful.
And the notion of Iran getting invaded in a couple of weeks is extremely short sighted given their 12 Million strong Baseej force or their IRGC.

[Madpaddy]

Buy the game below and sort it out with the dice.

[Kaj]

Unfortunately, in Risk the Middle East appears as one little unit - of equal worth to Madagascar.

[mos6507]

They'll leave it in chaos and if trouble emerges later, they'll just go back and bomb the crap out of them again.

That should be how we prosecute wars.

[Cid_Yama]

Opening volley?

<b>Baghdad's Green Zone hit by barrage of blasts</b>

Baghdad's heavily fortified Green Zone, which houses the Iraqi parliament and U.S. embassy, was hit by a sustained barrage of rocket or mortar bomb fire early on Sunday, witnesses and officials said.

It was not immediately clear where most of the missiles landed or if there were any casualties after an apparent attack lasting about 15 minutes, Reuters witnesses said.

A large plume of thick black smoke could be seen rising from one area of central Baghdad's Green Zone, which houses many government ministries and diplomatic missions. Sirens could be heard warning people to take cover.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L23697768.htm

<b>Lebanon prepares for War</b>

Posters slapped up on the walls of Beirut's Shiite Muslim southern suburbs show the face of a slain Hezbollah leader and declare that his death is a "sign of the coming victory."

Today, normally sleepy towns in the country's south are abuzz with stories of Hezbollah fighters getting ready for a new war. Some Lebanese are renting second apartments in neighborhoods far from possible areas of conflict.

Saudi Arabia, France and the United States in recent weeks have issued warnings to their citizens in Lebanon or scaled back some embassy operations.

Hezbollah blamed Israel for Mughniyah's killing and pledged "open war" to avenge him. Israel has placed its armed forces on high alert.

Because of the ambiguous outcome of Israel's 2006 battle with Hezbollah, many regional analysts say Israel's response in any renewed fighting would reach beyond Hezbollah's southern stronghold and hit targets all over Lebanon, and in Syria, which supports the movement.

"This is a very risky time, and people's worries, unfortunately, are justified," said Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 03408.html

<b>Another Bush War?</b>

Fallon's recent resignation may have seemed abrupt to many, but it was a well-orchestrated move. His interview in Esquire depicted him as highly critical of the Bush administration's policy on Iran; the magazine described him as the only thing standing between the administration and their newest war plan. Further, his resignation and "Secretary of Defense Robert Gates's handling of [it] is the greatest and most public break in the Bush team's handling of preparations for war against Iran that we are ever likely to see," wrote respected commentators and former CIA analysts Bill and Kathy Christison on 12 March.

Fallon's resignation represents a bittersweet moment. On the one hand it's an indication of the continued fading enthusiasm for the militant culture espoused by the neo-conservatives. On the other, it's an ominous sign of the Bush administration's probable intentions during the last year of the president's term. Sixty-three-year-old Admiral Fallon would not have embarked on such a momentous decision after decades of service were it not for the fact that he knew a war was looming, and -- having considered the historic implications for such a war -- chose not to pull the trigger.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0803/S00356.htm

Also, Cheney was just in Israel to reassure them we will aid in their defense.

[wisconsin_cur]

If we saw something that looked like Tet going on in Baghdad, perhaps I would agree. Until then I think I will sit and wait to see what happens.

[Cid_Yama]

<b>37 killed in Iraq bloodshed</b>

A series of attacks across Iraq on Sunday killed 37 people. The deadliest attack was in the main northern city of Mosul when a suicide bomber crashed an explosives-laden truck into an Iraqi army base, sparking a blast that killed 10 soldiers and wounded 30 others, mostly soldiers, officer Major Mohammed Ahmed told AFP.

In another brutal attack several armed men travelling in three cars opened fire in the mixed Zafaraniyah neighbourhood of south Baghdad, killing at least six people and wounding 16, security and medical officials said.

The gunmen struck as residents were out shopping in the local market.

In the third attack, a Katyusha rocket struck a residental building in the largely Shiite Al-Kamaliyah neighbourhood of east Baghdad, killing at least five people and wounding eight, security officials said.

The violence on Sunday began with a barrage of mortar fire against the Baghdad Green Zone, the seat of the Iraqi government and the US embassy.

Two waves of mortar rounds struck the area between 06:30 am and 10:30 am (0330 GMT and 0730 GMT). They caused no casualties but sent panicked US embassy staff scurrying into bunkers, officials and witnesses said.

An embassy employee, who would not be named, said staff dashed for the embassy's bunker after both attacks.

"The first attack woke us up and people went rushing to the bunker. It was very frightening. The blasts were very close. Some people were in the showers and arrived with towels around them," she told AFP.

http://www.todayonline.com/articles/244353.asp

[Cid_Yama]

<b>Syria masses three army divisions on Lebanese border</b>

Military sources report that the Syrian deployment is backed by the concentration of pro-Syrian Palestinian factions in the Beqaa valley of Lebanon, amid rising war tensions between Hizballah and Israel.

Hassan Nasrallah declared Hizballah would wage “open war” with Israel at the end of the 40-day mourning period the group observed for Imad Mughniyeh who was killed in Damascus February 12. His deputy has maintained that Hizballah had “100 percent solid evidence" that Israel had killed Mughniyeh, which Israel has consistently denied.

Monday, March 24, Nasrallah will address a big memorial rally in South Beirut. The Israeli army is on high alert for a possible Hizballah attack from Lebanon. The Magen David Adom ambulance service is on emergency standby across the country.

http://www.debka.com/headline.php?hid=5136