Michael Lynch - Disputing Peak Oil

[MonteQuest]

I think Lynch participated in this thread up until about page 75, more so earlier on.

This thread after that should be entitled "ReserveGrowthDroolz's - Disrupting Peak Oil.Com".

Maybe it is time for a split. Good title, btw.

[WebHubbleTelescope]

Nearing a cliff in USA conventional natural gas production.





Even more here, a model that actually provides some insight:
http://mobjectivist.blogspot.com/2006/1 ... -good.html

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

Nope, different graph, shows unconventional production as its portion of the total gas produced.

Shows the 70's peak, production decline, and another build to within the last few years.

From Laherrere:



It does look like the unconventionals have started to crest?

Thats the graph. And because I don't know what Laherre was using behind this graph, I can't speculate on what he is using for forecasting.

And unconventionals have a downside as well, but I was quite surprised when I saw this graph because I didn't assume they had made this size of an impact yet, even though I've been watching it in different forms and fashions for nearly a decade now.

[ReserveGrowthRulz]

Yup....Jimmy sure knew his energy policy stuff....he must have been using an early version of Wikipedia to school hisself, smart as he was.

And Jimmy Carter's message to move to renewables in 1977 was not prescient nor timely?

Oh...and how much of our energy, here in the future, did his policies generate for us? You probably know the percentages Monte, "timely and prescient" sure doesn't equate to "effective" now does it?

Jimmy wouldn't know ENERGY matters from a peanut. The guy was pathetic as a President in general, with energy issues specifically.

[EnergyDigger]

Hey guys - I'm Back - did you miss me ???

One of my subscribers was asking me about peak oil and i sent her here to read and find out more about peak oil.

Reminded me about these forums and decided to check in again... what is the verdict - do we have peak oil or not ?

[candieplastique]

My boyfriend and I just broke up. Before he left, he talked me into investing in a lot of oil companies with money I earned years ago. He was going on about this peak oil thing. Anyway I have been doing some reading on the internet on energy digging and rigzone. What is the peak oil and shoul I stay in these investments. Please help.

Candace

[WebHubbleTelescope]

My boyfriend and I just broke up. Before he left, he talked me into investing in a lot of oil companies with money I earned years ago. He was going on about this peak oil thing. Anyway I have been doing some reading on the internet on energy digging and rigzone. What is the peak oil and shoul I stay in these investments. Please help.

Candace

Talk to this EnergyDigger fellow, it looks like he needs attention from someone that misses him.

[TonyPrep]

Hey guys - I'm Back - did you miss me ???

One of my subscribers was asking me about peak oil and i sent her here to read and find out more about peak oil.

Reminded me about these forums and decided to check in again... what is the verdict - do we have peak oil or not ?

Funnily enough, I was wondering if you'd show up again.

On peak, what do you think? The latest graph from The Oil Drum Seems to indicate peak is close, though EIA and IEA figures are contradictory.

Tony

[Doly]

To me, all the evidence points that this is is. We are at the plateau. The only question left is when does decline start, and my guess is we can't hold a plateau for much more than five years.

[EnergyDigger]

government figures are...well... government figures.

they always use leading indicators that should really be called lagging indicators - predicting this trend is a game but from my observations in the industry, we have been at peak oil about a year now and diverging - demand increasing and supply waining. I don't need charts from Peak oil - I live and work on drilling and production platforms most of my life (9 months this year) - in fact, this is why you have not heard from me, there are many months that i am trying to find, produce and bring energy to the downstream end.

we are there folks - get used to it.

EnergyDigger

[TonyPrep]

I don't need charts from Peak oil - I live and work on drilling and production platforms most of my life

Unless you're privvy to industry wide data on production, ED, you'll need more info than what you get at work, to determine world wide peak. The Peak Oil chart graphs world data from two sources, so it is probably a better guide than anecdotal evidence that you've picked up in your work, even if you come to the same conclusion.

Tony

[EnergyDigger]

Your point is valid in most cases, however, I have a rather unique perspective here Tony. I have lived in more than 40 countries and speak 6 languages working in almost every region on the planet that yields energy production. I have lived in Saudi Arabia, Oman, Yemen, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Worked all through the North Sea including Norwegian, British and Dutch sectors, operated in Sakalin and other parts of Russia, lived through South America including Venezuela and Columbia, over one year in Australia, Geothermal and petroleum work through Japan and China, extensive work through Malaysia and Phillippines, hundreds of wells in the gulf of Mexico and West Coast of USA, all plays inside the US including South Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, the Williston Basin plays of Wyoming, North and South Dakota and Montana, the Pesciance Basin of Colorado and many other US plays, I spend a year in Canada as well. I spent 5 years in West Africa including Nigeria, Angola, Zaire, Congo, Cameroon, etc... I am an supervisor level drilling and production engineer and have worked in so many situations in so many places that my perspective is quite unique as I understand clearly the level of output and the momentum positive or negative in nearly every energy producing country in the world. Obviously, nobody knows everything about this game but n tandum with published figures, i have the ability to see the big picture as well as anyone walking around. It also gives me the ability to ferrit out the BS too, and there is always plenty of opportiunity for that.

EnergyDigger.com

[TonyPrep]

Lynch was up to his old disinformation tricks in this recent broadcast.

He said that the world has produced only 12% of it's current resource base (implying that technology improvements would enable us to extract all of the resource base, thus giving us many decades of growth in production).

He also rubbished the Hubbert model as only having been right a couple of times but didn't give clear examples of where it went wrong, other than declaring that US GDP would have peaked in the 80s if the model was applied to that!

Even the Exxon fellow was saying that there was only 5 trillion barrels, including produced. Unfortunately, Jeffrey Brown didn't pull him up on that (because only 3 trillion of that is conventional).

Tony

[spike]

Hi, guys, sorry I've been absent, but the thread was getting pretty redundant and I've been busy. (Plus, I broke my arm making typing difficult, although I'm a one-handed economist which is good, if it was a real economist.)

I am producing a comprehensive study on theory and reality of peak oil, and while I understand that the people on this thread generally don't believe anything I say, I am trying to find any publications that refute my work in a substantive way, and would appreciate any guidance.

Mike Lynch

PS I realize some people are looking at production data and thinking it has peaked. The same happens after November 2000, which was just a short-term fluctuation in which a number of analysts who should have known better proclaimed to be the peak. There is often a short-term fluctuations, especially on a seasonal basis, and it's important not to overreact to them.

Lynch was up to his old disinformation tricks in this recent broadcast.

He said that the world has produced only 12% of it's current resource base (implying that technology improvements would enable us to extract all of the resource base, thus giving us many decades of growth in production).

He also rubbished the Hubbert model as only having been right a couple of times but didn't give clear examples of where it went wrong, other than declaring that US GDP would have peaked in the 80s if the model was applied to that!

Even the Exxon fellow was saying that there was only 5 trillion barrels, including produced. Unfortunately, Jeffrey Brown didn't pull him up on that (because only 3 trillion of that is conventional).

Tony

[TonyPrep]

I realize some people are looking at production data and thinking it has peaked. The same happens after November 2000, which was just a short-term fluctuation in which a number of analysts who should have known better proclaimed to be the peak. There is often a short-term fluctuations, especially on a seasonal basis, and it's important not to overreact to them.

Welcome back to the lion's den, Mike. According to the EIA, the short term fluctuation is getting rather long lived: http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/12/5/144125/842

[Aaron]

Hi, guys, sorry I've been absent, but the thread was getting pretty redundant and I've been busy. (Plus, I broke my arm making typing difficult, although I'm a one-handed economist which is good, if it was a real economist.)

Sorry to hear about the arm.

How about I invite a few collegues from TOD to this thread to pitch in?

Stir the pot...

[Aaron]

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic25486-0-asc-0.html

[spike]

The more the merrier.
Mike

Hi, guys, sorry I've been absent, but the thread was getting pretty redundant and I've been busy. (Plus, I broke my arm making typing difficult, although I'm a one-handed economist which is good, if it was a real economist.)

Sorry to hear about the arm.

How about I invite a few collegues from TOD to this thread to pitch in?

Stir the pot...

[Aaron]

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic25486-0-asc-0.html

Any comment on this thread?

[Revi]

RGR Wrote:
"I am also on the record as saying that reserve growth opens up a resource the size of which is mind boggling to the average "conventional only" thinkers which seem to populate the Peaker world, and while production rates are not directly related to the size of that resource base, they both figure into how the CONSEQUENCES of Peak go down, if not the Peak date itself. "


I wish it were true. It would be nice. These reserves will need a lot more energy to produce. Any way you look at it oil becomes more and more expensive. I'd like to see the world slowly weaned off of oil. The price goes up and up, and it makes more and more sense to switch to alternatives and use what we buy efficiently. That would be the best situation for the future. Unfortunately we have all sorts of subsities to oil and gas production and consumption, and the average person won't understand the true price until some sort of disruption happens.