OilFinder2 wrote:" When installed, natural gas is more than sufficient to maintain installed natural gas. Plus some oil, hydropower, solar, wind, coal and nuclear thrown in for good measure."
Fantastic! Let us know when it gets installed, ok?
OilFinder2 wrote:" When installed, natural gas is more than sufficient to maintain installed natural gas. Plus some oil, hydropower, solar, wind, coal and nuclear thrown in for good measure."
OilFinder2 wrote:Another silly doomer in denial. It already is installed.
AirlinePilot wrote:
Once again you've published a story based on nothing more than wishing and hoping. Its a science project, and will be for a very long time.
pstarr wrote:What exactly are you accusing AP of saying? Which of the above statements are AP's. and which are your responses to his assumed hypocrisies?
Just askin?
AirlinePilot wrote:Facts are things which have been proven . . .
AirlinePilot wrote:When you post something to support a certain argument it's hollow if there is no concrete evidence of something happening, specifically if it refers to future events.
AirlinePilot wrote:There is a giant gulf between that and pointing to a credible historic chart of world oil production and inferring from FACTS that we are on a plateau.
Ludi wrote:I'm probably a little confused, Oilfinder. Are you saying oil production will NEVER peak? That is, we will always produce more oil than we produced before?
The theory of peak oil states that at some point oil production will peak, after which oil will become less abundant and more expensive. Are you saying this theory is false?
Please clarify. Thanks.
Ludi wrote:
The theory of peak oil states that at some point oil production will peak, after which oil will become less abundant and more expensive. Are you saying this theory is false?
Please clarify. Thanks.
OilFinder2 wrote:My position is that there is far more oil than peakers believe, that the technology and resources to produce this oil exists or will soon exist, and therefore, that production of oil will peak when demand for oil peaks. When that demand-peak will occur, I don't know. It could have been last year, or it might not be for decades. Or we might plateau for decades. Nobody knows.
OilFinder2 wrote:OilFinder2 wrote:My position is that there is far more oil than peakers believe, that the technology and resources to produce this oil exists or will soon exist, and therefore, that production of oil will peak when demand for oil peaks. When that demand-peak will occur, I don't know. It could have been last year, or it might not be for decades. Or we might plateau for decades. Nobody knows.
BTW, you might want to take mental note of the implication of my position: If my position is correct (and of course I believe it is), the price of oil will fall once production and demand begins to fall, rather than the price rise as production falls. It might steadily rise for a while, which will encourage new production, and this new production might even be from increasingly expensive sources. But that steady rise in price will encourage people to gradually reduce their consumption and switch to other energy sources (hint: this discussion is in a thread about gas hydrates *ahem*). Once the switch-over to other sources really starts to gather steam, oil consumption will decline, and so will production, and oil producers will reduce their prices in a desperate attempt to attract customers, but by now they're pumping much of their oil from the deep waters off the coast of Labrador, so they'll be losing money. Then they'll shut down their more expensive production, but it won't matter because there's no demand for it anyway. Near the end of the Age of Petroleum you'll still have the Saudis and Iraqis pumping out most of the world's oil, but that's only because they're the only ones who can still do it for $15/barrel.
OilFinder2 wrote:Here's a perfect example of what I'm talking about: Back in March, here on the Oil Drum we have ace boldly proclaiming, "World Oil Production Peaked in 2008."
Oh really? Where is this crystal ball he has access to that no one else does?.
AP wrote:We know what your position is OF, we also think your wrong. This website is all about opinion and debate.
SP wrote:This is the cornucopian bible folks. We somehow transition to an as yet unknown resource which can replace what oil has done for us over the last 100 years. Only problem is you better find it soon my friend, very soon. Good luck with that.
AP wrote:As Montequest pointed out so well for so many years here, we are just out of time. The realist in me does not share this optimism. This is what the debate always devolves to. You've got your take and i've got mine. As time moves forward decline doesnt slow. Time will grow shorter and no amount of tech does anything more than buy us a bit moref time. My take is that as humans we fight kick and scream to avoid real change . . .
AirlinePilot wrote:OilFinder2 wrote:Here's a perfect example of what I'm talking about: Back in March, here on the Oil Drum we have ace boldly proclaiming, "World Oil Production Peaked in 2008."
Oh really? Where is this crystal ball he has access to that no one else does?.
You my call his calculations using MATH and his thought process using LOGIC and KNOWLEDGE OF THE INDUSTRY mental masturbation, but the rest of us here can see the trends. He says this may be a peak for a list of reasons and he backs his conclusions up with a very good stab at scientific method. Thats far more convincing and credible than proclaiming he has a Crystal ball or being childish and stating:
AirlinePilot wrote:"YOU DONT KNOW"
I completely and utterly beg to differ.
The only debate to the good minds over at TOD is to find some extremely large source of new oil, PRONTO, or some new miracle energy device which can quickly, cheaply, and EASILY supplant oil throughout our society. You obviously have to believe that is possible to argue with those boys. I see that as blind optimism and its far from any reality the rest of us share.
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