Exploring Hydrocarbon Depletion
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In putting forth this optimistic thesis, Maugeri apparently sets aside a variety of technical realities, including the difference between natural gas liquids (NGLs) and conventional oil, reserves depletion versus capacity declines, and proven reserves as opposed to speculative resources.
This is part II of a guest post by Jean Laherrère, long term contributor to The Oil Drum. Jean worked 37 years for TOTAL on exploration and production of oil and gas, and since his retirement has worked tirelessly to analyse the world's oil & gas data and developments.
In part I of this article Jean looked into Maugeri's concepts of production capacity and reserve growth. It showed how Maugeri's bottom-up analysis is based on optimistic assumptions regarding Iraq and by taking at face value the data published by OPEC. Furthermore, Jean pointed out that man of Maugeri's oil production forecasts are above any projections by any agency, most notably in the case of the US.
In this second part Jean dissects Maugeri's assumption on reserves growth, on which his optimistic production forecasts relay. It his shown how Maugeri wrongly extrapolates the effects of flawed reserve accounting in the US to the rest of the world. Maugeri's also fails to acknowledge the conflicting reports and reporting practices of the several agencies producing oil data at world level. There are also some important remarks on the Maugeri's concept of conventional oil and other details that bring into doubt the knowledge of this author on the field.
Neither you nor Rockdoc have handed me anything other than childish noise (you) and pompous distractions (Rockdoc). Here is a suggestion for both of you; Anti be a big boy, stand out from behind Rockdoc's academic apron and make a useful point . . . all by yourself. Critique Laherrère @ TOD for us. Okay? Rockdoc you there? How about you join the fun over at TOD, as I have suggested repeatedly in the past. Make fools of them. If you can. ha ha ha.TheAntiDoomer wrote:This thread is great, I love watching pstarr getting his dick handed to him by rockdoc. LOL
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