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Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby Pops » Thu 23 Oct 2014, 18:38:43

4,294 instance of the word "imminent" used on PO.com

LOL

Certainly there are folks on a well who're running out but really, that isn't anything new.The last place we owned in the valley was a little farm that had at least 3 different wells at different times - no doubt each a little deeper than the previous. But then the farm we're on now also has three different wells too - and the latest one was drilled deeper in the '80s.

Here's a visual:
http://www.google.com/publicdata/explor ... l=en&dl=en
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Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 23 Oct 2014, 19:51:23

Are you not making the point Pops?

I agree that we don't know the exact date when things I'll run out but things are looking dicey.
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Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby Surf » Thu 23 Oct 2014, 23:38:14

The latest media reports indicate that some 14 communities throughout the state are now on the verge of running completely dry


Sounds bad. But if you read the rest of the article:

"While most of the communities facing total water depletion are relatively small in size, with only a few thousand residents each"

So those 14 communities amount to a very tiny fraction of the states population. Most of them are small and are not connected to the state water system. Yes the situation could get worse if the drought continues at its present severity. However:

"Oh. And by the way: please take some water, it's getting muddy up here. :wink: And just so you don't get any ideas about migrating up here to Humboldt: there is only one way in/out of Humboldt and it is washed out. :razz:"

For the last several years California has gotten almost no rain between for the first half of the rainy season. No storms got past ridge of high pressure until late in the season. However if you lived south of San Francisco when it did rain you basically saw only light shower. Hombolt county was is north of San Francisco. and the situation was a little better there.

However this year the high pressure ridge that we had the last several years is considerably weaker or gone this year. Several cold fronts have gotten through since September. Typically this early in the season northern California (including Hombolt) gets most of the rain. Gradually the rain gets further south as winter progresses. It looks like most of the bay area will get rain Friday night. It is beginning to look like this year will be wetter that last year. The sulfur dioxide the Iceland volcano is releasing might also help. Even if this year ends up as officially as a drought

If you folks need to flee your beautiful state please do not come to Texas.


Interesting comment. 80 years texas was suffering from the dust bowl. A lot of people from Texas and other states were moving west to... California.
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Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby Deputy Barnes » Thu 23 Oct 2014, 23:49:25

pstarr wrote:
Deputy Barnes wrote:A mass migration out of California would be delightful if it took a westerly direction.
So you never partake of almonds, strawberries, movies, space/computer technology?


Surely enough, I do not.
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Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 23 Oct 2014, 23:57:23

Said the man as he typed it on his computer.
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
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Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 24 Oct 2014, 00:08:03

Surf wrote:However this year the high pressure ridge that we had the last several years is considerably weaker or gone this year. Several cold fronts have gotten through since September. Typically this early in the season northern California (including Hombolt) gets most of the rain. Gradually the rain gets further south as winter progresses. It looks like most of the bay area will get rain Friday night. It is beginning to look like this year will be wetter that last year. The sulfur dioxide the Iceland volcano is releasing might also help. Even if this year ends up as officially as a drought

Yes Surf, this feels a lot like old times . . . up here.

In the past we would get our drenching early, and then the storms move south, and so by Feb./March it's dry up here and raining in Socal. I hope that plays out for their sake. (though I don't see any rain forecast friday in SF bay area?)
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Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 24 Oct 2014, 00:09:21

Cid_Yama wrote:Said the man as he typed it on his computer.

He missed the part about the virgin. As if anyone here in the US is disconnected from the industrial world-trade teat.
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Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby AndyA » Fri 24 Oct 2014, 01:01:34

70% of the economy is consumption, and you don't need much water for that.
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Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby Oily Stuff » Fri 24 Oct 2014, 06:07:28

Surf, we are inundated with Californians moving to Texas now, however. I was being protective of my home, just like you folks are of your home. My area of Texas is the fastest growing region in the United States and we do not have the water to support that growth, even in normal rainfall patterns, which we have not had in 5 years, and subsurface recharge is immediate. It is a crisis level now and will only get worse.

I love California, especially getting tip time at SANO in the summer. I like to eat almonds too. I did not know you folks invented computers and the internet, I thought Al Gore did. I know most of the natural gas California uses comes from Texas and Louisiana and you demand that gas to be cheap. So, its OK to drill oil and gas wells in the Gulf of Mexico, as long as we don't have accidents and make a mess, but for some reason its not OK to drill wells off the beach in California. I like to get in pissing matches about oil and gas with Californians but this thread is about water and Texans share your pain regarding water, I assure you. Don't give in on the frac'ing thing out there. A typical Eagle Ford shale well, or a Wolfberry well in the PB in a very dry west Texas, requires 8 million gallons of fresh water to drill and frac. That is enough water for 75,000 human beings to use in one day. I think we are drilling over 3000 unconventional shale wells a year in Texas. Doesn't make a lot of sense, does it?

Again, I love California, it would be a wonderful place to live if only 20 million people would move to Kansas. Imagine the lineups.
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Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby BobInget » Fri 24 Oct 2014, 09:22:32

http://www.weather.com/news/weather-for ... a-20141022

Thank you all for your concerns.

In fact it has been raining last three days almost continuously.
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Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 24 Oct 2014, 13:38:33

Oily - Yep: more factors the rainfall pushing the dynamics between Texas and CA:

What’s remarkable about this data showing Texas’ prosperity relative to California is how counter it runs to prevailing notions that California, with Silicon Valley and Hollywood, is a land of wealth and opportunity while Texas, part of the South, is mired in low wage poverty. In fact, Silicon Valley, as important as it is to California, only amounts to 10.4 percent of the Golden State’s economy while employing 6 percent of Californians. The mining industry in Texas, of which oil and gas extraction are the main part, generated 9.8 percent of Texas’ GDP in 2012 significantly less than manufacturing’s share of 14.5 percent—the Lone Star State’s economy is more diversified than its critics contend.

As for population and job growth, from 2000 to 2012, California grew 11.9 percent. Texas more than doubled California’s growth at 24.4 percent. The U.S. population expanded 11.3 percent in that time. Much of Texas’ growth came from domestic migration, while California lost residents to other states, Texas being the most common destination; this alone should cause pause to those who say that migration to Texas is driven by the weather. From January 2000 to April 2013, nonfarm payroll grew an anemic 2.6 percent in California compared to Texas’ 19.7 percent. U.S. job growth over that time was 3.6 percent.

Most importantly, California and Texas, alike in many ways, have diametrically opposed public policies. California’s state and local tax burden ranks as America’s 4th-highest compared to Texas at 45th. California taxes a 42 percent larger share of state income than does Texas, California’s restrictive energy policies discourage oil extraction, even though it has the largest proven shale oil reserves in the nation; while its industrial electrical rates are 88 percent higher than in Texas.
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Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 24 Oct 2014, 16:18:16

Texas also produces more wind power than any other state, including CA.

Not sure of the relevance of these comparisons though.

Back a bit more on topic--will the coming (likely) El Nino help the CA drought situation? Maybe. But probably not much:

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/weak ... nter-18222
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Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby Oily Stuff » Fri 24 Oct 2014, 16:54:37

That's good stuff, Mr. Rockman. I am getting old and have forgotten the exact circumstances in which some years ago California sued Texas (or was it Enron?) because it thought the price of natural gas it was buying from us was too high. The same legislative tenure that sued us for price manipulation also made the offshore drilling moratorium in California permanent. LOL, I guess.

Having said that, I just finished a fascinating internet research about Wilmington Field in L.A., magnetic standoffs around well bores drilled 6-8 feet apart, 3-D imaging and computer models correcting for "new" ground elevations. On the apex of the Wilmington structure there was nearly 30 feet of surface subsidence back in the 40's. Pressure maintenance propped that up. Pretty cool stuff. California has had a very interesting and very colorful role in the history of America's oil industry.

God Bless Texas...and California. Can we ship Austin out there?
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Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 24 Oct 2014, 17:17:49

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/03/us/ca ... .html?_r=0
Well whatever the patterns in the past, the situation has most definitely worsened greatly the last three years as this linked article above makes clear. This is just a stark example of the nexus of population size meeting up with a dwindling vital resource. This is just one example of many of our resources base or biosphere hitting limits and restraints and in some cases decreasing even though the needs of the great size of humanity cannot and does not adjust. So something has to give!
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Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby Oily Stuff » Fri 24 Oct 2014, 17:30:55

In Texas, where we deal with drought constantly, we are hoping for the little boy to show up also.
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Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 24 Oct 2014, 22:49:33

Oily - "California sued Texas (or was it Enron?) " Memories fade but I think it was proven that Enron screwed the folks in CA but I'm not sure they eventually got any relief. By that point Enron was jut worth pennies. I was drilling in Wyoming at the time and my mud logger thought Enron at $9/share might be a good investment. Knowing some of the folks working there I suggested he hold beck for a while. I think the stock finally bottomed out at $0.08/share.
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Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby dashster » Tue 28 Oct 2014, 02:30:16

Plantagenet wrote:Back in the real world, there is no mass migration out of California.

The population in California isn't dropping---it is still rapidly growing---the state added a million people in just the last 3 years. The state is ranked 18th for growth rate in the whole USA.

California population grew by a million people from 2010 to 2013

The million new arrivals just in the last three years are more than the entire population of 8 other states.


I read an article some years ago that said that except for during the dot com boom, based on drivers licenses, there was a net out migration from California to the rest of the United States since the early 1980's. I googled to confirm that and found a census bureau document that showed a net out-migration for 2000-2004. It showed the highest out-migration from the most densely populated areas. That is, more likely to leave the state if you live in LA area or SF area than if you live in the central farmland. They have it as a percentage, rather than the raw numbers. From memory it got to above 2% annual NET out-migration in some areas.

Anyway, the point I am trying to make is that without immigration, California would probably be shrinking, not growing. If you travel California you will see city council's working feverishly with developers to put more people on the same amount of land. They will proudly proclaim that they are making more housing for the people. They always leave off that they are simulaneously building more commercial buildings that will make more housing necessary, so the end result won't be a better supply of residential housing. They also leave out that the people that they are making room for don't live in their city. They also don't live in their country.

In the early 1980's California had several years of drought. During that period, at least in the Bay Area, they put restrictions on water use. Watering your lawn or washing off your driveway with a hose were prohibited. Amazingly, they also stopped new construction. Apparently there was a momentary connection between infinite population growth and finite fresh water. But it was only momentary as they still are planning on infinite population growth. But they must have come up with some new reservoirs somewhere, because the population has grown since the early 80's, and this drought is supposed to be more severe, and yet they haven't had the same restrictions on water use.
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Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 28 Oct 2014, 06:57:48

AndyA wrote:70% of the economy is consumption, and you don't need much water for that.


Yes, but you need income to support consumption. And if the drought is bad enough it will effect income; from AG but also from industries that rely upon water, which are many.

If anything I think your data shows how interconnected things are and the path by which a sufficiently sever drought could spread misery.
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Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 28 Oct 2014, 07:00:04

AndyA wrote:70% of the economy is consumption, and you don't need much water for that.


Yes, but you need income to support consumption. And if the drought is bad enough it will effect income; from AG but also from industries that rely upon water, which are many.

If anything I think your data shows how interconnected things are and the path by which a sufficiently sever drought could spread misery.

Curious, where did you get that number and do you have similar numbers for other states, the USA as a whole, and other countries?
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Re: Mass Migration out of CA Imminent

Unread postby Pops » Tue 28 Oct 2014, 08:36:42

dashster wrote:From memory it got to above 2% annual NET out-migration in some areas.

Anyway, the point I am trying to make is that without immigration, California would probably be shrinking, not growing.

So there is net emigration yet immigration is causing the population to rise?

LOL, I don't get it.

Actually CA average just about exactly the same growth as the country overall:

Image

Which is unfortunate.
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