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Making Tesla pt. 2

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Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 07 Aug 2017, 15:58:58

Cog wrote:Don't you think that Musk could have mentioned this a week ago when he was pumping the Model 3? Now I've never tried to coordinate the issue of $1.5 billion on junk bonds with a Goldman Sachs or other investment bank, but it seems to me he knew about it for a while.

Either way, when the Tesla stock crash comes its going to be somewhat spectacular.

Truly spectacular. Elan Must is a big fat liar. His Hyperloopy EV and Spacey X are internet cons. It's gonna be a HUUUUGE! crash. The Robot Dream that drives Tesla drives the rest of the market. Especially the FANGS. When Tesla crashes it will bring down THE STOCKMARKET! Be worried. Very worried. Petrified worried. :? It's all bits and bytes. Virtual reality. The only reality is the planet earth and we are just about done with that yikes.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Mon 07 Aug 2017, 19:36:14

If you had just built a new factory poised to produce within the next year, would you get a short term loan to make it happen or sell some of your precious capital to a stranger. I can't say what will happen, but I like his approach.

Still no mention of the Powerwall sales. Mine just came in and it was shipped directly from the Nevada factory. I will install and test it for myself and then make a decision on whether to sell my stock or buy more. I will make my choice based on technical prowess not market stupidity.

Pstarr - I am only beginning to understand your sense of humor :)
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Mon 07 Aug 2017, 21:49:45

Realize the batteries are the heart of the Model 3. The PV division faces a lot of competition, but he has the jump on the battery market. If the batteries perform as advertised, the EV market is a cinch. I can build an electric car, I can't build a Lithium battery.

If the EV market goes mainstream, the big auto companies will be buying batteries from Tesla, for now. And he will move on to the Hyperloop concept.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 08 Aug 2017, 22:15:03

I was sorely disappointed in the 2nd Model 3 reveal, or should I say, non-reveal.

I think Tesla has pushed all its chips on the table and it's make or break time. The launch is NOT what it should have been. The should not be excluding the base model on launch. They should not be ramping up so slowly. They should not be offering so few options. They should not have such turnover in the C-Suite. They should not be issuing junk bonds.

They are literally right up against the wall.

In addition to that, the clock is ticking. They've tipped their hand, but they can't scale out. Meanwhile VW, Audi, Volvo, and others are much more agile than they're given credit for. If Tesla does not ramp up the S curve in historic fashion, the other automakers will rapidly eclipse their manufacturing capability. I think with China's help they can produce enough batteries to check the advantage of the gigafactory, and let's face it, the gigafactory itself has not even reached full build-out.

Tesla is attempting to run an Apollo style project purely on the backs of investors and credit.

I'm not saying they can't pull it off but if they do not get manufacturing in gear literally overnight, I think they will be dead-man-walking and one of the majors, probably somebody like VW, will steal the EV throne.

As far as what this means for peak-oilers....well, it's a win-win. The future of gas-free travel doesn't rest on the fate of Tesla. If another automaker eats them alive, so be it.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Wed 09 Aug 2017, 05:59:02

You're right ASG,
But...when your back is against the wall, you do your best work.

The battery pack in the Powerwall is exactly the same as the Model 3. The Powerwall has one, the Model 3 has 16 or so. The automated factory in Nevada is putting out these packs as fast as possible. This is a done deal. He will be making these packs for someone for the next few decades. Could be VW....

Speaking of Apollo projects....I will admit the big auto companies are agile when they start delivering supplies to the Space Station. I know this doesn't really apply to cars, but if you are going to change the world you have to think outside the box.

VW may take over electric cars, but will they make Powerwalls? Realize that if society crashes, or changes drastically, an electric car may be useless (where are you going to go?) But the ability to power your own house is priceless.

Tesla's business model is so far outside the box, financial analyst don't have a clue. I don't either...but I am enjoying the show :)
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 09 Aug 2017, 09:40:55

I think some here feel they can chalk a win up for peak-oil doomerism as long as they can convince us that Tesla will crash and burn.

The existing automakers have spent in some cases upwards of 100 years establishing themselves. Sure, some of them have gone through bankruptcy (Government Motors anyone?) but at the same time there is the one-time sunk cost of their existing global infrastructure that took decades to build. The Fremont factory wouldn't have existed if not for the previous NUMMI facility, for instance.

Remember how the automakers retooled during World War II and how this rapid retooling was referenced in the Hirsch report? It seems like they lack agility, but push comes to shove, they can shift gears, and they may in fact be about to do that in response to Tesla.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Wed 09 Aug 2017, 09:59:13

You're right ASG, on all points...IMHO :)

I am waiting with baited breath to see TPTB's response to Tesla. This is exactly the kind of gear shifting we need.

But clearly Tesla had to spend billions of dollars to get their attention and, for now, he is in the lead.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby hvacman » Thu 10 Aug 2017, 09:40:58

GM is already fully tooled at the Orion plant to build both Bolts and other future BEV's based on the Bolt platform. That existing line can produce - if dedicated totally to EV's - 54 units/hour. That's 1,296 units per day (3 shifts) or 30,000/month. Take that, Tesla.

GM already is engineering a larger Buick version that will use the basic Bolt platform (and probably be made at Orion) and is playing coy about their over EV plans in the hopper.



So it isn't tooling or engineering that holds back EV production. It is a market to sell to and a will to do it.

Nissan is just months away from releasing their next Gen long-range Leaf. BMW and their next Gen i3. VW will be producing long-range BEV's within two years and is financing the build-out a US-based CCS fast-charge infrastructure (thanks to Dieselgate) that all brands can use. The product stream for long-range BEV's is a trickle now, but the dam will burst by 2020 and really flow, if there is the market.

And Tesla does NOT have the lead. No one does. With the mass-market M3, rookie player Tesla will finally be stepping into "The Show". This is a scramble. Just like the start of a Hunger Games. All the players running from their start blocks for electric weapons to hack each other. The bloodshed hasn't even really started. The next few years will be fun to watch, from an sadistic EV-enthusiast's standpoint.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 10 Aug 2017, 09:52:25

Peak-oil doomerism had been clutching so hard at the idea that we'd just blindly go off a cliff due to a combination of ignorance and corporate greed. That we have cheap oil AND will likely have a literal buffet-table of viable no-compromise BEV options in the next few years shows how reality has a way of throwing us curve-balls.

I have no doubt that if we do fall off the plateau shark-fin style that those who doubled-down buying big SUVs will have a historic case of buyer's remorse as they are paying down vehicles whose resale value instantly plummets. But there should be enough vehicles out there for those of us who don't want to take that risk. Technically, there already are, if you're willing to settle on a commuter-vehicle like a Leaf.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 10 Aug 2017, 11:13:52

asg70 wrote: But there should be enough vehicles out there for those of us who don't want to take that risk. Technically, there already are, if you're willing to settle on a commuter-vehicle like a Leaf.

So since we're "there" (or certainly will be in a few years) in terms of capable EV choice and volume, it sure would be smart to have government step in and INCENT the buying public to make the S-curve for ramping into EV's a lot steeper. Once EV's become more than a theory (people see them on the road and in neighbors' driveways and can talk to people who drive them), a big psychological "wait and see" barrier falls, if the EV prices are truly middle class. (Which is my disappointment about the Model 3. $50,000ish to get one configured "like a Tesla" is no longer a middle class car, to my way of thinking. Hopefully these prices fall meaningfully by 2020, but we can't be sure about that.)

The simplest, smartest way to seriously speed up EV adoption in the US, IMO, would be a meaningful CO2 tax on transport. Even a, say, 50 cent tax on gasoline, which increased by that amount every year over the next 5 years would be a nice incentive. Twice that would be better, but politicians are FAR too timid on this issue in the US. (Most of their constituents talk making "green" sounds UNTIL they perceive a meaningful dent in their wallet or choices. Then, per polls, their willingness to act about AGW flips.)

We lack many truly brave or principled US politicians, at on Capitol Hill, so I don't see how we realistically get there.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Cog » Thu 10 Aug 2017, 14:16:33

At this time next year, Tesla stock will be half the value it is right now or even much lower. The Model 3 production is vaporware.

Yes, I made the call on this.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 10 Aug 2017, 17:12:15

Cog wrote:At this time next year, Tesla stock will be half the value it is right now or even much lower. The Model 3 production is vaporware.

Yes, I made the call on this.

With respect, meaning what re the production, precisely?

The Model 3 production from July (which may well have been hand built) is in the hands of employees now. And reporters took lots of rides in them and drove them and generally liked the performance.

Now, if you're saying that no way does Tesla successfully ramp to the target numbers like 5,000 cars a week by year-end (with high quality), you have quite a bit of company. That will be very challenging and risky, which even Elon admits to via his "months of production hell" comment to employees at the Model 3 production launch.

...

I'm not saying you're wrong (especially since I don't know how to judge this, except by what other experts think, on average). I'd just like to understand the (adult) conversation here on this topic, as I think it's good to hear differing points of view. (The child-like posts, I feel safe in ignoring, based on the posting history of the sources).

And it's interesting. Suppose he gets half way there. Is 10,000 a month an epic fail? Is it sort of OK, as long as he gets to 20,000 a month by the middle-ish of 2018? Since it's often Tesla fanbois vs. Tesla bears in the market, and neither side seems ready to soften their tone or moderate their attitude, I don't know what to think about (what I consider very likely) success, but significant schedule slippage (based on what happened with the X and S).
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 10 Aug 2017, 17:43:31

Cog wrote:At this time next year, Tesla stock will be half the value it is right now or even much lower. The Model 3 production is vaporware.

Yes, I made the call on this.

I'm about ready to friend you lol
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Thu 10 Aug 2017, 19:23:20

There's an interesting article on CNBC about Tesla's share of the US market.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/10/new-dat ... ccess.html
He has almost half of the BEV market in the US. There is no doubt it is fan based ideology plus a quality product so far. Right now, Americans would rather sign up and wait for Model 3 than buy a Bolt. He has taken their EV market without making very many cars.

Of course it makes no sense. I can only assume these folks want to see Tesla change the world while TPTB fade away...Like me :) It's an incredible gamble that could crash and burn, or it could succeed in a way no one has in a long time. The best thing he has going for him is his fan base. If he can make cars people will buy them...Can GM say that?
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 10 Aug 2017, 23:38:17

baha wrote:There's an interesting article on CNBC about Tesla's share of the US market.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/08/10/new-dat ... ccess.html
He has almost half of the BEV market in the US. There is no doubt it is fan based ideology plus a quality product so far. Right now, Americans would rather sign up and wait for Model 3 than buy a Bolt. He has taken their EV market without making very many cars.

Of course it makes no sense. I can only assume these folks want to see Tesla change the world while TPTB fade away...Like me :) It's an incredible gamble that could crash and burn, or it could succeed in a way no one has in a long time. The best thing he has going for him is his fan base. If he can make cars people will buy them...Can GM say that?

There is no question there is a lot of idealism in the level of Tesla fan enthusiasm. Nothing wrong with that. Just not a great thing (emotion) to make solid economic predictions from, based on history.

The EV market is so tiny, and there are so few decent products produced in any volume that no wonder Tesla has taken the market. (At least is has two decent, though expensive, EV models.)

It's very early days yet. If the established automakers continue to snooze away and make empty marketing statments about what they might do in 3 or 5 years, then Tesla has a nearly wide open path to market dominance IF it doesn't screw up. If on the the other hand, they actually produce credible EV's in 2018 and 2019 as some are promising, Tesla faces lots more competition soon.

When the whole long range EV market is Tesla, the Bolt (still in tiny production from the hapless GM, still not sold in all 50 states, though that was promised in 2017) and the hapless (re EV's) Nissan, with the Leaf apparently with only a 40 KWH battery and under-powered compared to even the Bolt -- it's not exactly a big field for long range EV's.

https://www.theverge.com/2017/8/9/16115 ... city-range

I'd like to see Tesla succeed. But I'm not interested in buying one unless I can get one in or near my KY city, and especially can get it reliably serviced in my city, without long wait times. In other words, Tesla has a LONG way to go to set up a solid widespread sales and service infrastructure, which the middle class will demand for competitive EV's, once we're beyond the enthusiast stage.

To me, that's why it's such an interesting horse race. We don't know which horses are running soon, much less what they'll look like. It's kind of like betting at a horse track where all you know about 75% of the field is their number, and maybe who bred/trained them. (Would you bet a lot (or even all) your money on such a race? Yet apparently, numerous Tesla fanboi's are doing just that with Tesla stock. They're either far braver or far more foolish than I).
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Fri 11 Aug 2017, 06:08:58

So true OS,
The Bolt is a compliance car, and a test by GM to see if there is a market. Both the Leaf and Bolt are aimed at the wrong market, everyday commuters. Tesla aimed at rich yuppies who want something cool and different. Which is why a $40k Model 3 will sell before a $30k Leaf. Nissan doesn't understand the need for 0-60 in 6 seconds. Soccer moms are not going out on a limb when they buy a car. Enthusiast like me will, but they want performance not just green.

I am looking to Mercedes and VW for the real competition. Mercedes is already threatened by Tesla. He has greatly impacted the premium sedan market. And VW has jumped in with both feet :) Hopefully their head will break the surface sometime in 2020 and there will be real competition. GM is a victim of it's own lack of vision and old business practices. They just can't learn new tricks.

I keep saying 'change the world' and everyone keeps looking for conventional business practices. Tesla's business model is to deliver cars to your area without a dealer, just a depot. More like a computer than a car. What little service is needed is provided by roaming service trucks that fix it at your house or haul it to the depot. I know, I applied for a job doing this very thing. It sounds like fun :)

You may think this will never work. You don't understand the level of reliability an electric car will have. My 2015 Transit Connect Ecoboost has almost 60k on it and I have never been to the shop. I expect it to run 200k before I have any problems, and it has an ICE. I expect 500k from an EV during the break in period :) 2-3 million miles is possible. I don't count batteries, basically these and the tires are the only consumables there are. Like a Laptop, you buy it, plug it in occasionally, and replace the battery after many years. That's about it :)

Tesla may fail to get there...GM doesn't want to get there. They would have to close all their dealerships and garages. Just don't judge Tesla based on 'how things are done'. Just like me, he does things different...
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Fri 11 Aug 2017, 06:42:44

One of the reasons I have conquered the solar field is my experience in IT. Lots of folks can wire stuff up...I can do that and then make it talk on the Internet. At least 50% of the service work I do is troubleshooting Internet connections. We rely on the net to tell us when there are problems.

Tesla is the same way. Most service issues will be fixed with a new Operating System download. Internet connectivity will be the new service issue.

And Autonomy is also a hot issue. GM and Nissan have said they are looking into it...Tesla is offering the hardware today, and a software download over the net when they get approval. Apple, Google, LYFT have all started research. There is the dichotomy...who will survive...the auto companies or the IT companies. Tesla has a handle on both :)
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 11 Aug 2017, 09:07:04

In theory EVs can be more reliable but Tesla has serious problems with build quality. A typical Tesla owner winds up taking his or her car back to fix things like pieces of trim that are misaligned or falling off. That's the problem with trying to run a company that makes physical goods like one that deals with bits and bytes. You need expertise in both.

On the flipside, Germany is very good at precision physical manufacturing and not very good at software.

It's an open question whether Tesla will ever achieve the accuracy and precision of veteran automakers. Considering that it sells in a premium pricepoint, it must. The goodwill of early adopter evangelists cutting them slack won't last forever.

But at the same time, each automaker is rolling their own autonomy software, something even Google hasn't been able to perfect.

This is what happens when you have a case of convergence. You have companies coming at it from different sides.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 11 Aug 2017, 09:45:36

hvacman wrote:And Tesla does NOT have the lead. No one does. With the mass-market M3, rookie player Tesla will finally be stepping into "The Show". This is a scramble. Just like the start of a Hunger Games. All the players running from their start blocks for electric weapons to hack each other. The bloodshed hasn't even really started. The next few years will be fun to watch, from an sadistic EV-enthusiast's standpoint.


Not just them. Those of who are are early adopters, first of the Gen I hybrids, and then the full on Gen II plugin hybrids of lesser ranged EVs, are also watching, not from the standpoint of a sadistic, but of a customer.

We understand range anxiety, we understand where and how we used our EVs, and why we own them, and how much we like free fueling stations, and our garages, and don't ever want to stop at gas stations or convenience stores ever again.

The Bolt and Model 3 have already achieved everything they need to, to be a viable alternative for nearly every city/suburban dweller in America. If the Gen II plugable hybrid Chevy Volt was good for 75% of commuting Americans, the Bolt or M3 is probably a 99%'er.

If peak oil hadn't been just another business cycle leading to glut and low prices, this type of transport would be on every street corner already, and those trucks and SUVs so popular right now would be selling at a loss, and much like the Toyota Prius during the 2008 price spike, the pluggables and EVs would be selling at a premium, rather than the other way around.

The good news being, the bell has already been rung, and no one can unring it for those of us who now know the value of these alternative fueled means of transport. pstarr and other faux environmentalists can keep their noisy, CO2 emitting pollution machines, I'm running to the bank this morning and can promise the world that I shall not harm a single molecule of gasoline in the process.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 11 Aug 2017, 09:58:28

baha wrote:Tesla may fail to get there...GM doesn't want to get there. They would have to close all their dealerships and garages.


There are probably hundreds of millions of ICE powered machines floating around in the US, and good chunks of them will still need garages and delerships for many years, and probably decades, to come. There is no need to GM to get rid of these things. Yet.

The question revolves around the market saturation speed of EVs, how quickly can new business models make a profitability dent in GM, and how much economic pressure is required before they spin off a new company (like Saturn) to directly compete in that other business model. Saturn worked, until GM decided it didn't wish to support it anymore, it turning out that there wasn't as much money in smaller, cheaper, more fuel efficient cars. They could easily do the same with an EV division, and go head to head with Tesla and the rest. I would be surprised if they don't, in the end, exactly because of the sales/volume pressure this new business model will bring.

But ultimately, we are still talking about cars. Computers will make them better, and change the way we use them, and change the way they drive themselves, but cars none the less. Once the mass market is satisfied, with bland but completely normal cars like the Bolt, expect EV Vette's and the like, just as Tesla has the insane mode on the Model S. Performance does matter, mine is faster than yours, hauls more, looks cooler, none of those sales needs are going away any time soon.

And the good news is that when the next peak oil arrives, it will just accelerate this already existing process.
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