Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Making Tesla pt. 2

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 14 Sep 2017, 14:26:51

Outcast_Searcher wrote:I'm no Tesla fanboi but your constant naysaying borders on denialist delusion.


Doomers beyond a certain point are no better than groups like the Koch brothers. Big corporations want unfettered fossil fuel use for the sake of greed. Doomers want unfettered fossil fuel use for the sake of the validation of their fatalistic doomer narratives. So they can both join hands and FUD Tesla and company to death.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
asg70
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1259
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 14 Sep 2017, 14:30:33

Plantagenet wrote:
EdwinSm wrote: trucking .....


The Port of LA has been using electric trucks since 2009.

electric-truck-2009

Daimler Benz already has an electric truck on the market.

Image
Benz electric truck on the road

Good luck to TESLA on their new electric truck. They are late to the game, but maybe they can catch up.

Cheers!

That local fed-ex delivery market is handled well by propane. Musk wants to be a bonafide trucker dude. This is all about 18-wheelers

Wired 06/01/17: "EVEN ELON MUSK MAY NOT BE ABLE TO MAKE AN ELECTRIC TRUCK WORK"
No room for the Tesla. Barely enough for a couple crates of cabbages lol
Say the Tesla truck runs a lithium-ion battery system that generates 243 watt-hours per kilogram at the cell-level—a good bet based on the tech in Tesla’s current cars. To cover 600 miles without stopping to charge, the truck would need a 14 ton battery. A 900-mile battery would weigh about 22 tons. Based on current prices, those packs would cost between $290,000 and $450,000. A comparable diesel rig costs about $120,000, all-in.

How long to charge a 22 ton battery? Gotta be a long coffee break :shock:
Haven't you heard? I'm a doomer!
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 26461
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 14 Sep 2017, 19:00:40

pstarr wrote:That local fed-ex delivery market is handled well by propane. Musk wants to be a bonafide trucker dude. This is all about 18-wheelers

Wired 06/01/17: "EVEN ELON MUSK MAY NOT BE ABLE TO MAKE AN ELECTRIC TRUCK WORK"
No room for the Tesla. Barely enough for a couple crates of cabbages lol
Say the Tesla truck runs a lithium-ion battery system that generates 243 watt-hours per kilogram at the cell-level—a good bet based on the tech in Tesla’s current cars. To cover 600 miles without stopping to charge, the truck would need a 14 ton battery. A 900-mile battery would weigh about 22 tons. Based on current prices, those packs would cost between $290,000 and $450,000. A comparable diesel rig costs about $120,000, all-in.

How long to charge a 22 ton battery? Gotta be a long coffee break :shock:


But the understanding from those not wanting to just spread FUD is that the proposed range for this initial model is 200 to 300 miles. So less space, less weight, less cost, and as usual, your FUD is more in your mind than the real world.

https://www.theverge.com/2017/8/24/1619 ... es-big-rig

So that doesn't mean they won't work. It means they won't work for typical long haul trucking -- yet.
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 4152
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 14 Sep 2017, 21:42:53

Outcast_Searcher wrote:So that doesn't mean they won't work. It means they won't work for typical long haul trucking -- yet.


Perfect is the enemy of the good with doomers who just want to watch the world burn.

Image
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
asg70
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1259
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 00:29:35

There is exactly one TESLA charging station in Alaska, and its 400 miles away from where I live

Tesla charging station map

Image
Yoo Hoo---Mr. Musky---Yoo Hoo. Up here. WAY up here. We need more charging stations. Now.

"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
"Il bel far niente"
---traditional Italian saying
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 20606
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 03:07:47

Plantagenet wrote:There is exactly one TESLA charging station in Alaska, and its 400 miles away from where I live

Yoo Hoo---Mr. Musky---Yoo Hoo. Up here. WAY up here. We need more charging stations. Now.

So there are no electrical outlets in Alaska? No 220?

Given that Alaska isn't exactly densely populated in general, what do you expect?

Look at southern California. When there is sufficient DEMAND for Tesla charging stations, THEN they look at building them.

If you think the Tesla Electric Semi won't work in Alaska, don't worry. There are 49 other states likely far more amenable, generally.
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 4152
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 11:06:21

Outcast_Searcher wrote: When there is sufficient DEMAND for Tesla charging stations, THEN they look at building them.


Actually thats not Tesla's position. IN many areas Tesla is building charging stations first to try to goose their sales. For instance, consider China.

Tesla is currently building out a 1000 Tesla charger network in China so that more people there will be encouraged to buy its EVs. They are racing to get the charger network in by the end of 2017.

teslas-challenge-in-china-getting-its-chargers-installed

In reality its highly unlikely that people will go out and buy Teslas in places where there is insufficient infrastructure to allow their best use. The charging infrastructure and growth in Tesla sales have to go hand in hand.

Cheers!

"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
"Il bel far niente"
---traditional Italian saying
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 20606
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 13:12:02

Planty said; "...In reality its highly unlikely that people will go out and buy Teslas in places where there is insufficient infrastructure to allow their best use. The charging infrastructure and growth in Tesla sales have to go hand in hand."

Sorry, Plant, but Tesla isn't the only group building charging stations. Electrify America is spending billions to build thousands of non-proprietary charging stations in the US, part of VWs EV initiative.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1866
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 13:37:37

GHung wrote:Planty said; "...In reality its highly unlikely that people will go out and buy Teslas in places where there is insufficient infrastructure to allow their best use. The charging infrastructure and growth in Tesla sales have to go hand in hand."

Sorry, Plant, but Tesla isn't the only group building charging stations. Electrify America is spending billions to build thousands of non-proprietary charging stations in the US, part of VWs EV initiative.


Volkswagen’s settlement, which was approved by a federal judge in October, calls for the company to "Invest $2.0 billion over 10 years in zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) infrastructure, access and awareness initiatives."
VW Corporate Media: Terms of Agreement

I see no specific dollar requirement for infrastructure construction. Nor has the company spent a cent of money yet. We will see.
Haven't you heard? I'm a doomer!
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 26461
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 14:09:16

pstarr wrote:
GHung wrote:Planty said; "...In reality its highly unlikely that people will go out and buy Teslas in places where there is insufficient infrastructure to allow their best use. The charging infrastructure and growth in Tesla sales have to go hand in hand."

Sorry, Plant, but Tesla isn't the only group building charging stations. Electrify America is spending billions to build thousands of non-proprietary charging stations in the US, part of VWs EV initiative.


Volkswagen’s settlement, which was approved by a federal judge in October, calls for the company to "Invest $2.0 billion over 10 years in zero emissions vehicle (ZEV) infrastructure, access and awareness initiatives."
VW Corporate Media: Terms of Agreement

I see no specific dollar requirement for infrastructure construction. Nor has the company spent a cent of money yet. We will see.


????? https://electrek.co/2017/07/10/vw-ev-ch ... y-america/
The $2 billion that Volkswagen has to invest in electric vehicle infrastructure in the US as part of its court settlement for the DieselGate scandal is starting to turn into real charging stations.

They opened the first fast-charging stations in the Washington, D.C. area.

The stations are being deployed by ‘Electrify America’, a VW subsidiary created as part of the German automaker’s settlements with California Air Resources Board (CARB) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) over its use of emission test cheating devices in its diesel vehicles.

We recently reported on the plan for California, which includes installing ultra-fast 320 kW chargers, and the plan for the whole country, which includes a ‘nationwide 150 kW+ fast charging network’.

The plan for California is still not going through as other automakers and the state government are going over the details on how VW should spend the money for the EV charging network.

But they are rolling out their national plan starting with eight fast-charging stations across Maryland and Virginia.

As part of the first phase of the rollout, they say that “50 new and upgraded 50kW dual-standard fast chargers will be installed at premier retail properties in 10 major metro markets across the country, including Boston, Chicago, Denver, Houston, Miami, New York, Philadelphia, Portland (Oregon), Seattle and Washington D.C.” by September.

The new stations, with hardware supplied by BTC Power and ABB, have been in operation for the past 2 weeks
under EVgo’s network, but it will also “soon” be available under Electrify America’s own open-standard network, according to the company. The system is reportedly still under development.


Gotta start somewhere. My point is that, as Planty seems to want us to believe, Tesla isn't the only company building charging stations for EVs, and Tesla owners aren't entirely reliant upon having Tesla charging stations available.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1866
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 14:13:18

The article starts with a incorrect assumption, that the $2 billion is designated for infrastructure. It is not. The point that Plant reasonably makes is that infrastructure build-out is both a precondition for, and a consequence of sales. But sales of EV's are mostly flat, certainly as compared to ICE's.
Haven't you heard? I'm a doomer!
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 26461
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 14:17:45

pstarr wrote:The article starts with a incorrect assumption, that the $2 billion is designated for infrastructure. It is not. The point that Plant reasonably makes is that infrastructure build-out is both a precondition for, and a consequence of sales. But sales of EV's are mostly flat, certainly as compared to ICE's.


You could say the same about electric refrigerators or gasoline powered cars about 100 years ago.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1866
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 14:56:03

GHung wrote:Planty said; "...In reality its highly unlikely that people will go out and buy Teslas in places where there is insufficient infrastructure to allow their best use. The charging infrastructure and growth in Tesla sales have to go hand in hand."

...Tesla isn't the only group building charging stations. Electrify America is spending billions to build thousands of non-proprietary charging stations in the US, part of VWs EV initiative.


Gungy---Good to see we agree on this.

And VW just announced two new EV concept cars to go with the three they are already committed to produce. My favorite is the VW ID BUZZ-----an EV mash up of the old VW bus. VW is convinced these new EVs will be TESLA killers. You have to take VW seriously because they are so huge and make billions of dollars in profit each year that they can plow into their EV business, while Tesla is yet to make a nickel.

Image
Groovy man----the VW BUZZ

Cheers!

"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
"Il bel far niente"
---traditional Italian saying
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 20606
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 15:00:51

See the one on the right? I owned two, before I graduated to the Westfalia Campers. Restored, drove, and made a profit on every one.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1866
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 15:09:06

GHung wrote:
pstarr wrote:The article starts with a incorrect assumption, that the $2 billion is designated for infrastructure. It is not. The point that Plant reasonably makes is that infrastructure build-out is both a precondition for, and a consequence of sales. But sales of EV's are mostly flat, certainly as compared to ICE's.


You could say the same about electric refrigerators or gasoline powered cars about 100 years ago.

Big difference though between refrigerator/ICE and EV acquisition. Cars and refrigerators were brand new so was the assembly line. The wide-spread introduction of cars only required gasoline tanker deliveries and gas cans. Millions of Ford Model A were sold in the first two years.

EV's have been on the road for decades and continue to lag. There are few if any charging stations in most states. Yet there now exists 3 million gas station filling hoses (at 150,000 gas stations). 100's of million gas/diesel fill-up each day. Each gas/diesel fillup takes a 5 or 10 minutes. A EV fillup takes 4-8 hours (at 240v) You do the math. The infrastructure adoption is completely untenable. Forgetaboutit lol
Haven't you heard? I'm a doomer!
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 26461
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 15:12:57

GHung wrote:See the one on the right? I owned two, before I graduated to the Westfalia Campers. Restored, drove, and made a profit on every one.



I owned a green 1966 VW bus just like the one in the photo---and it was the old 6 volt model. I loved that car. I skied and climbed and visited hot springs and camped all over the west coast in my Vdub, accompanied by my trusty tall skinny blonde Finn girl friend. That was a good time. But with a 6 volt system she didn't have a lot of cranking power if the weather got cold (the VW van I mean, not the Finnish girlfriend). For a while I had to crawl underneath and hit the starter with a hammer to get it to start, or park on a hill so I could get it rolling and then do a roll start. Even that was great.

I sold it off when I moved to Alaska and then I packed everything I owned into a little Subaru Justy and drove north for a job at the University.

I've got a van now I use for Camping in Alaska and trips to the Yukon and Northwest Territories in neighboring Canada but its a Honda Odyssey. Goes fast and is really dependable like a Honda can be---but not much character compared to a Westfalia.

Cheers!
Last edited by Plantagenet on Fri 15 Sep 2017, 17:11:00, edited 1 time in total.

"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
"Il bel far niente"
---traditional Italian saying
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 20606
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 16:13:07

GHung wrote:See the one on the right? I owned two, before I graduated to the Westfalia Campers. Restored, drove, and made a profit on every one.


Some of my happiest childhood memories were spent in a bay-window camper with my grandparents, fighting for the pop-top berth. If they make a camper version and not just a van I'd be really interested in one.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
asg70
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1259
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 16:16:54

pstarr wrote:EV's have been on the road for decades and continue to lag.


Looks like someone needs to watch the Tony Seba presentation again.

You have no understanding of the way S-curves require a confluence of forces for things to hit critical mass.

The first EVs are as old as the ICE itself, but they were using things like lead acid or edison batteries. They were just golf carts, basically. EVs required generational leaps in battery and materials tech (note the use of lighter weight aluminum in the Model S body). Seriously, trying to explain this to you is like throwing pearls before swine.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
asg70
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1259
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby hvacman » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 17:01:10

re: EV sales vs charging infrastructure.

I should point out that when Tesla starting selling Model S's in volume back in 2013-2014, there were very few Superchargers around - it largely was a map on the website of where they WOULD be installed in the future than a reality. Yet they sold well, even in areas with few or no SC stations. Tesla has really only had a true nation-wide SC network for the last year.

And now the 3rd party fast charge network is growing by leaps and bounds. Not as seamlessly as Tesla, as there is no central "national network planner". The hand of the market is pushing it, which can be uneven. But it is fun to watch on a monthly basis how it changes and grows. There is a website called "Plugshare" that has a national map of where to find chargers. Everything from available 115 volt outlets, RV parks with 40 amp/240 volt plugs they'll let you use for a fee, to level 2 medium speed charge stations to fast-charge DC CCS and Chademo stations and Tesla Superchargers. They even show 15 charging locations in....Alaska!

Even with some spotty FCDC fast-charge station coverage, if you are armed with the plugshare app and take a portable L2 charger and some plug adapters, there now is literally no place in the lower 48-state US you can not drive to in an EV with at least 200 miles range.


https://www.plugshare.com/#
hvacman
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 590
Joined: Sun 01 Dec 2013, 12:19:53

Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 16 Sep 2017, 12:42:07

Plantagenet wrote:In reality its highly unlikely that people will go out and buy Teslas in places where there is insufficient infrastructure to allow their best use. The charging infrastructure and growth in Tesla sales have to go hand in hand.
Cheers!

Feel free to try to spin things however you want.

1). Tesla charging stations are generally correlated with likely usage of EV's, or relatively near term projected (by Tesla) use of EV's.

2). If you expect Tesla to place a lot of charging stations in Alaska before there is good chance of meaningful demand for those chargers, you're delusional.
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 4152
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

PreviousNext

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 14 guests