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Making Tesla pt. 2

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 29 Jun 2015, 09:29:43

pstarr wrote:Truly, Mos needs to read up on the Five Stage of Grief. Nothing a little nano-glue won't repair.

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(sorry mod, couldn't help mysef)


I predicted you'd fall back to stupid humor, and there you are. Sorry, this isn't an argument. It's just a worthless ad-hom.

Really, the intellectual quotient of your posts was much higher years ago. I thought you had a brain. These days you seem incapable or unwilling to actually use your brain. You just issue your pre-programmed dogma, and when faced with a rebuttal, then you fall back onto ad-hom mockery, not unlike KJ in your own way. It's a shame.

BTW, wasn't I supposed to be on your ignore list? If you keep this up, you'll wind up on mine, because it's not like you're saying anything the least bit illuminating.
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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby Timo » Mon 29 Jun 2015, 10:01:38

pstarr wrote:[I forgot to mention I own an electric bike, bought 5 years ago on a closeout. It's nice. Now I own a power pack full of dead lithium ions in a configuration I have not bothered to replace. Next alt-vehicle will be a donkey cart.

I hear you. We had to replace a dead battery on our electric lawn mower this spring. It lasted 5 years, which is 2 years longer than average. In hindsight, we didn't take proper charging-care of that sucker this past winter. Essentially, we allowed it to go brick.

Still, $150 to replace that battery is cheaper than a new mower, electric or petrol. Exclude the cost of fuel, and we still consider that we're coming out ahead.

I can't wait until Tesla gets into the lawn mower business. Then, i can mow lawns, coast to to coast, for free. Old ladies might even pay me for mowing their lawns.

Oh, on the electric bike, check out Maxwell electric bikes. Just do the google. They're having a kickstarter right now to mass produce an electric bike that's honestly the best looking electric bike i've yet to see. It looks like a real bike, and it's relatively light-weight, too. The batteries are inside the tubes, with removable plates on those tubes for access.http://insideevs.com/maxwell-epo-ultralight-ebike-goes-kickstarter/.

Onward and upward!
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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 29 Jun 2015, 11:50:30

They claim 10-15 miles on a charge from 250 watt hours. Seems a bit excessive.

My EV bike weighs like 60 pounds with the battery and the motor and controls and stuff. I never seemed to want to use the thing much, was always checking the battery meter and fearing that I had to pedal the beast home. There's a reason for superlight carbon-fiber frames. And my beast was not it. :)

Emotionally there is a big difference between a near-empty gas tank and a low battery light on a vehicle. With an ICE you know where you stand when the tank is low. When a battery is low (especially a lithium-ion, they stop dead) there is no way of feeling confidence. Batteries are almost living things and performance can be a bit of a mystery with temperature, age, chemistry all coming together for BIG SURPRISES.

I could never do with an EV what I do with my ICE. I live out in the country, way out. I could not drive to SF. I could not drive to Bald HIlls Rd to see the lupins in the spring.
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You feel stupid Mos, being an early adapter and then having the discomfort of watching no one else adapt. Be careful.
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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 29 Jun 2015, 15:00:24

pstarr wrote:With an ICE you know where you stand when the tank is low. When a battery is low (especially a lithium-ion, they stop dead) there is no way of feeling confidence.


Sure there is, because of the supercharger network. That's what it's there for, to address range-anxiety.

pstarr wrote:I could never do with an EV what I do with my ICE. I live out in the country, way out. I could not drive to SF.


You won't get to SF on a donkey-cart either. And why would you want to? They are full of snooty college-educated latte liberals just like the Bostonians you say you hate.

Not all products are suitable for all people. Just because it's not right for you doesn't mean everyone else will or should reject it.

pstarr wrote:You feel stupid Mos, being an early adapter and then having the discomfort of watching no one else adapt.


Is that supposed to refer to you or me?

Wake me up when you own a real donkey cart and you ride downtown with it in pride.

I've got nothing against bikes and eBikes by the way. Saying that I'm looking forward to Tesla's cheaper vehicles doesn't mean I don't want anyone to try powering down more aggressively. But let's not have a pissing contest over who is living the most pious ecological lifestyle, because there's always going to be someone who is doing it better, including better than you.
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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby rdberg1957 » Thu 02 Jul 2015, 17:46:57

I still like the idea of hybrids a la Volt. A 75 mile battery and a gasoline engine would cover most daily commutes. I know we need to transition away from personal automobiles, that is the most important transition. I would like to see electric transport in the form of personal rapid transit. The technology is there to make these systems work well. There are only a few simple systems currently, but I think light rail for long-haul and PRT for short urban trips would be fantastic. Of course the PRT would link up with light rail or subways, extending their utility, replacing buses which only run full during rush hour. The automobile costs way too much and a really good transit system with intercity links would cost much less.
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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Fri 03 Jul 2015, 00:24:54

rdberg1957 wrote:I still like the idea of hybrids a la Volt. A 75 mile battery and a gasoline engine would cover most daily commutes. I know we need to transition away from personal automobiles, that is the most important transition. I would like to see electric transport in the form of personal rapid transit. The technology is there to make these systems work well. There are only a few simple systems currently, but I think light rail for long-haul and PRT for short urban trips would be fantastic. Of course the PRT would link up with light rail or subways, extending their utility, replacing buses which only run full during rush hour. The automobile costs way too much and a really good transit system with intercity links would cost much less.

PRT ???
What does PRT stand for?
Your abbreviation search returned 98 meanings
http://www.acronymfinder.com/PRT.html
I guess you mean:
Personal rapid transit
There has not been much discussion about PRT on PO.com
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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby clifman » Sat 08 Aug 2015, 11:30:18

ennui2 wrote: that thing is one of the ugliest cars ever. The Nissan Leaf is just tolerable to look at.


Appearance? SMH...
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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 08 Aug 2015, 13:13:58

Timo wrote:Oh, on the electric bike, check out Maxwell electric bikes. Just do the google. They're having a kickstarter right now to mass produce an electric bike that's honestly the best looking electric bike i've yet to see. It looks like a real bike, and it's relatively light-weight, too. The batteries are inside the tubes, with removable plates on those tubes for access.http://insideevs.com/maxwell-epo-ultralight-ebike-goes-kickstarter/.

Onward and upward!

I've looked at electric bikes, including Maxwells. Far too much expense, far too little practicality for anyone living in a worse climate than, say, Hawaii.

Despite the fact that many small rechargable batteries, i.e. NIMH Enerloop, have made tremendous progress as to reliability in the past decade or so, the very fact that Maxwell is doing a KICKSTARTER to "mass produce" an electric bike says a LOT about the vibrancy of the real world electric bike market, wouldn't you say?

Keep on dreaming seems a lot more realistic than "onward and upward" in this market.

And why do people keep worrying so much about the looks of such things? Triple the real world power, durability, and battery life span, and cut the price of the electric system in half, and the thing could look like a giant hairy spider, yet you'd likely see a big surge in the e-bike market.
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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 08 Aug 2015, 13:20:54

Keith_McClary wrote:
rdberg1957 wrote:I still like the idea of hybrids a la Volt. A 75 mile battery and a gasoline engine would cover most daily commutes.

Well, yeah. But a Volt with an ACTUAL (not just claimed) 75 mile battery (i.e. 5 year old battery on a snowy winter day with the heater running and you'd actually get, say 70 miles instead of 15) would cost something like $25,000, just for the battery. Aside from the Prius C (IMO), the cost of hybrids vs. the real world performance makes them a far less than compelling deal for most people.

Maybe some day if we actually get sustained gasoline prices well above $5.00 a gallon, such cars will make obvious economic sense. Until then, battery technology still needs to improve a LOT in the performance to price ratio.
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Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 07 Aug 2017, 15:58:58

Cog wrote:Don't you think that Musk could have mentioned this a week ago when he was pumping the Model 3? Now I've never tried to coordinate the issue of $1.5 billion on junk bonds with a Goldman Sachs or other investment bank, but it seems to me he knew about it for a while.

Either way, when the Tesla stock crash comes its going to be somewhat spectacular.

Truly spectacular. Elan Must is a big fat liar. His Hyperloopy EV and Spacey X are internet cons. It's gonna be a HUUUUGE! crash. The Robot Dream that drives Tesla drives the rest of the market. Especially the FANGS. When Tesla crashes it will bring down THE STOCKMARKET! Be worried. Very worried. Petrified worried. :? It's all bits and bytes. Virtual reality. The only reality is the planet earth and we are just about done with that yikes.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Mon 07 Aug 2017, 19:36:14

If you had just built a new factory poised to produce within the next year, would you get a short term loan to make it happen or sell some of your precious capital to a stranger. I can't say what will happen, but I like his approach.

Still no mention of the Powerwall sales. Mine just came in and it was shipped directly from the Nevada factory. I will install and test it for myself and then make a decision on whether to sell my stock or buy more. I will make my choice based on technical prowess not market stupidity.

Pstarr - I am only beginning to understand your sense of humor :)
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Mon 07 Aug 2017, 21:49:45

Realize the batteries are the heart of the Model 3. The PV division faces a lot of competition, but he has the jump on the battery market. If the batteries perform as advertised, the EV market is a cinch. I can build an electric car, I can't build a Lithium battery.

If the EV market goes mainstream, the big auto companies will be buying batteries from Tesla, for now. And he will move on to the Hyperloop concept.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 08 Aug 2017, 22:15:03

I was sorely disappointed in the 2nd Model 3 reveal, or should I say, non-reveal.

I think Tesla has pushed all its chips on the table and it's make or break time. The launch is NOT what it should have been. The should not be excluding the base model on launch. They should not be ramping up so slowly. They should not be offering so few options. They should not have such turnover in the C-Suite. They should not be issuing junk bonds.

They are literally right up against the wall.

In addition to that, the clock is ticking. They've tipped their hand, but they can't scale out. Meanwhile VW, Audi, Volvo, and others are much more agile than they're given credit for. If Tesla does not ramp up the S curve in historic fashion, the other automakers will rapidly eclipse their manufacturing capability. I think with China's help they can produce enough batteries to check the advantage of the gigafactory, and let's face it, the gigafactory itself has not even reached full build-out.

Tesla is attempting to run an Apollo style project purely on the backs of investors and credit.

I'm not saying they can't pull it off but if they do not get manufacturing in gear literally overnight, I think they will be dead-man-walking and one of the majors, probably somebody like VW, will steal the EV throne.

As far as what this means for peak-oilers....well, it's a win-win. The future of gas-free travel doesn't rest on the fate of Tesla. If another automaker eats them alive, so be it.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Wed 09 Aug 2017, 05:59:02

You're right ASG,
But...when your back is against the wall, you do your best work.

The battery pack in the Powerwall is exactly the same as the Model 3. The Powerwall has one, the Model 3 has 16 or so. The automated factory in Nevada is putting out these packs as fast as possible. This is a done deal. He will be making these packs for someone for the next few decades. Could be VW....

Speaking of Apollo projects....I will admit the big auto companies are agile when they start delivering supplies to the Space Station. I know this doesn't really apply to cars, but if you are going to change the world you have to think outside the box.

VW may take over electric cars, but will they make Powerwalls? Realize that if society crashes, or changes drastically, an electric car may be useless (where are you going to go?) But the ability to power your own house is priceless.

Tesla's business model is so far outside the box, financial analyst don't have a clue. I don't either...but I am enjoying the show :)
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 09 Aug 2017, 09:40:55

I think some here feel they can chalk a win up for peak-oil doomerism as long as they can convince us that Tesla will crash and burn.

The existing automakers have spent in some cases upwards of 100 years establishing themselves. Sure, some of them have gone through bankruptcy (Government Motors anyone?) but at the same time there is the one-time sunk cost of their existing global infrastructure that took decades to build. The Fremont factory wouldn't have existed if not for the previous NUMMI facility, for instance.

Remember how the automakers retooled during World War II and how this rapid retooling was referenced in the Hirsch report? It seems like they lack agility, but push comes to shove, they can shift gears, and they may in fact be about to do that in response to Tesla.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Wed 09 Aug 2017, 09:59:13

You're right ASG, on all points...IMHO :)

I am waiting with baited breath to see TPTB's response to Tesla. This is exactly the kind of gear shifting we need.

But clearly Tesla had to spend billions of dollars to get their attention and, for now, he is in the lead.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby hvacman » Thu 10 Aug 2017, 09:40:58

GM is already fully tooled at the Orion plant to build both Bolts and other future BEV's based on the Bolt platform. That existing line can produce - if dedicated totally to EV's - 54 units/hour. That's 1,296 units per day (3 shifts) or 30,000/month. Take that, Tesla.

GM already is engineering a larger Buick version that will use the basic Bolt platform (and probably be made at Orion) and is playing coy about their over EV plans in the hopper.



So it isn't tooling or engineering that holds back EV production. It is a market to sell to and a will to do it.

Nissan is just months away from releasing their next Gen long-range Leaf. BMW and their next Gen i3. VW will be producing long-range BEV's within two years and is financing the build-out a US-based CCS fast-charge infrastructure (thanks to Dieselgate) that all brands can use. The product stream for long-range BEV's is a trickle now, but the dam will burst by 2020 and really flow, if there is the market.

And Tesla does NOT have the lead. No one does. With the mass-market M3, rookie player Tesla will finally be stepping into "The Show". This is a scramble. Just like the start of a Hunger Games. All the players running from their start blocks for electric weapons to hack each other. The bloodshed hasn't even really started. The next few years will be fun to watch, from an sadistic EV-enthusiast's standpoint.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 10 Aug 2017, 09:52:25

Peak-oil doomerism had been clutching so hard at the idea that we'd just blindly go off a cliff due to a combination of ignorance and corporate greed. That we have cheap oil AND will likely have a literal buffet-table of viable no-compromise BEV options in the next few years shows how reality has a way of throwing us curve-balls.

I have no doubt that if we do fall off the plateau shark-fin style that those who doubled-down buying big SUVs will have a historic case of buyer's remorse as they are paying down vehicles whose resale value instantly plummets. But there should be enough vehicles out there for those of us who don't want to take that risk. Technically, there already are, if you're willing to settle on a commuter-vehicle like a Leaf.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 10 Aug 2017, 11:13:52

asg70 wrote: But there should be enough vehicles out there for those of us who don't want to take that risk. Technically, there already are, if you're willing to settle on a commuter-vehicle like a Leaf.

So since we're "there" (or certainly will be in a few years) in terms of capable EV choice and volume, it sure would be smart to have government step in and INCENT the buying public to make the S-curve for ramping into EV's a lot steeper. Once EV's become more than a theory (people see them on the road and in neighbors' driveways and can talk to people who drive them), a big psychological "wait and see" barrier falls, if the EV prices are truly middle class. (Which is my disappointment about the Model 3. $50,000ish to get one configured "like a Tesla" is no longer a middle class car, to my way of thinking. Hopefully these prices fall meaningfully by 2020, but we can't be sure about that.)

The simplest, smartest way to seriously speed up EV adoption in the US, IMO, would be a meaningful CO2 tax on transport. Even a, say, 50 cent tax on gasoline, which increased by that amount every year over the next 5 years would be a nice incentive. Twice that would be better, but politicians are FAR too timid on this issue in the US. (Most of their constituents talk making "green" sounds UNTIL they perceive a meaningful dent in their wallet or choices. Then, per polls, their willingness to act about AGW flips.)

We lack many truly brave or principled US politicians, at on Capitol Hill, so I don't see how we realistically get there.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Cog » Thu 10 Aug 2017, 14:16:33

At this time next year, Tesla stock will be half the value it is right now or even much lower. The Model 3 production is vaporware.

Yes, I made the call on this.
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