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Making Tesla pt. 2

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 17 Nov 2017, 12:32:02

Tesla stock is up big on the announcement of the new EV semi truck and the sportscar, and the stocks of companies that build diesel semi trucks is down.

Elon has done it again---he's identified a $30 billion industry (the diesel semi truck biz) that he can disrupt with his new EV technology.

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Beep Beep! Here comes TESLA's big rig!

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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 17 Nov 2017, 13:53:02

baha wrote:Ha,ha, you gotta love it...

The Roadster is all about prestige. Ferrari and Lamborghini have been embarrassed by the Model S and are starting to develop their own electric drivetrains. They know an ICE motor with a mechanical transmission will never be able to compete again.

From CNBC -'The base model will be able to travel from 0-60 miles per hour in 1.9 seconds, which would be a record. It will go 0-100 miles per hour in 4 seconds. It will have a 200 kilowatt hour battery pack and will be able to drive 620 miles on a single charge, Musk said.'

He is making sure everyone knows EVs are superior and every car manufacturer on earth is playing catchup.

Yeah, seems like the perfect car. Until I remind myself that the base model is $200,000. Or that I can only go 80 briefly while merging onto 70 mph freeway without likely getting a ticket. (Much less 100 or, of course, anything remotely approaching 250).

This is more about what can theoretically be done, than to a big bump to Tesla's bottom line in the next decade, IMO.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 17 Nov 2017, 15:04:14

EdwinSm wrote:Thanks the for the rebuttals to my post...I will look at these in more detail, but have a medical trip (for the wife) to make to the big city so I do not have much time now. The responses seem to indicate that you still feel that it was a bad deal. I agree that the future of Tesla depends on getting a good roll out of Model 3

A quick response is that some of the links related to previous quarter results and I was looking at the results for the 3rd quarter of this year (not the 4th quarter of last year), where there seem to have been improvements in sales in the energy sector. However, so much seems to have been buried in operational costs that it is hard to read the report and see what exactly the effect of Solar City was, or if that division also includes the new battery factory.
Things got even worse in the 3rd quarter. 3rd quarter results were Tesla's worst quarter ever. Top executives from SolarCity are fleeing the sinking ship while the rank and file are getting pink slips as the company attempts to reign in a sea of red ink. SolarCity is not making money for Tesla. Quite the opposite.

Tesla misses first major Model 3 goal in worst financial quarter ever

When Tesla bought SolarCity last fall, some observers, including myself, called it a bailout of the residential solar installer. SolarCity's business was in trouble and Tesla bought it to save Elon Musk's reputation and millions of dollars for himself, his cousins, and SpaceX.

Less than eight months after the SolarCity deal closed, Tesla has lost most of its most important employees and laid off thousands of lower-level workers. SolarCity is a shell of itself -- and on Tuesday, it got a little weaker.

The solar company Tesla paid $2.6 billion for is now a shell of itself. The executive team is gone, Tesla is letting sales and installation staff go, and the solar manufacturing plant SolarCity thought would change its future has been handed over to Panasonic (coincidentally Tesla's Gigafactory partner). The justification for the acquisition has evaporated because there's not much left.

Solar could be a huge weight on Tesla
When Tesla acquired SolarCity, the biggest risk wasn't adding a solar arm, it was SolarCity's ongoing costs. SolarCity had around $1 billion in annual operating expenses, which had to be paid for by continually funneling solar systems through the business. Projects were built, third parties financed them. Rinse and repeat.

Since Tesla took over, the deal flow through the system has come to a screeching halt. And Tesla may have cut some costs, but it still has hundreds of millions of dollars of operating expenses it acquired directly from SolarCity. That's a weight on Tesla's operations that it could do without.

If SolarCity keeps going the way it's going, I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla is forced to write down some (or all) of the acquisition. As it stands today, SolarCity isn't adding much to Tesla, and if the current trend continues, it may eventually be shut down altogether.
Why SolarCity Has Become a Shell of Its Former Self Since Tesla Buyout
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 17 Nov 2017, 15:27:49



You can't judge TESLA like a normal company. People aren't buying TESLA stock based on fundamentals. They are buying TESLA stock to get a little piece of the action in whatever Elon Musk's next genius breakthrough is going to be.

Right now there is buzz and excitement for Elon Musk's new EV semi truck and the glorious EV roadster.

The numbers may not make sense, but that doesn't matter. Its all about the buzz from Elon.

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Elon Musk air freshener----it does't smell like Elon Musk but it has his picture on it and thats all that matters!
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 17 Nov 2017, 15:54:44

asg70 wrote:It would be really nice to see Teslas race gas cars on the straight-away and not just drag racing.

We'll see if Tesla survives long enough for either of these. I would have preferred he reveal the Model Y instead because a small SUV is really what would sell the most.

It would be really cool if a sport version of the roadster would perform well on a typical track -- at least for X laps until the battery gets too hot, being real competition in that format for the best production ICE sports cars.

I think the Model 3 is make or break for Tesla, though. If they can get the volume AND quality issues hammered out in the Model 3 before the cash burn causes too much more refunding needs, then the sky is the limit for what they can do re future EV's.

Once the Model 3 is solidly profitable and selling in real volume, then the door is wide open to the Model Y, etc.

To me, things are bad enough re cash burn and irons in the fire not to introduce more cars for near term production unless and until Musk can demonstrate the concept of true upper middle class volume production.

And I'm still concerned about the quality and service issues. Those are NOT optional for middle class drivers who want and need their cars to be highly reliable and quickly and conveniently serviced. If Musk can't deliver that, then that's a deal breaker on really high volume middle class cars, IMO. (I know it would be a deal breaker for me and my friends. We wrestled with somewhat unrealiable/inconvenient cars when we were young out of economic necessity. That's no longer a game we're playing).
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 17 Nov 2017, 15:57:24

Not only that but in invalidates the "EVs barely need servicing" argument. They have to ship it right and avoid both themselves and the consumer dealing with warranty service and recalls.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 17 Nov 2017, 16:26:40

US trucking company places order for some Tesla EV semi trucks

trucking-company-j-b-hunt-reserves-tesla-trucks

The truck specs are pretty impressive, especially the 500 mile range.

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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Fri 17 Nov 2017, 16:39:10

Plantagenet wrote:US trucking company places order for some Tesla EV semi trucks

trucking-company-j-b-hunt-reserves-tesla-trucks

The truck specs are pretty impressive, especially the 500 mile range.


Walmart has also pre-ordered a few to test for shorter-haul distribution.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 17 Nov 2017, 16:51:17

GHung wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:US trucking company places order for some Tesla EV semi trucks

trucking-company-j-b-hunt-reserves-tesla-trucks

The truck specs are pretty impressive, especially the 500 mile range.


Walmart has also pre-ordered a few to test for shorter-haul distribution.

With the 500 mile fully charged range and the 400 mile recharge in 30 minutes Tesla is claiming (assuming that is accurate), I think the mileage constraints that imposes actually are a good idea. I don't think a trucker SHOULD drive more than, say, 450 miles without a meaningful break -- just for safety reasons.

To me, the combination of the 500 mile range and the 400 mile recharge in 30 minutes COMPLETELY gets rid of the extreme range FUD folks like pstarr here, or Tesla bears, generally, were stating or implying would be the case.

Given the size and weight of a Semi Truck, this makes sense (lots of space and weight allowance for batteries). Now the issue is, given we're talking roughly a million KWH's, how much will it cost. (I never say any specifics on the cost of the trucks, though I may have missed it).
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Fri 17 Nov 2017, 17:45:26

.... I don't think a trucker SHOULD drive more than, say, 450 miles without a meaningful break -- just for safety reasons.


Over-the-road truckers are essentially limited to 8 hours unless they are within 2 hours of their destination. Big fines for violations or falsifying their logs.

500 miles (range) divided by 8 hours = 62.5 MPH average speed. Perhaps that isn't a coincidence.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby baha » Fri 17 Nov 2017, 17:49:22

asg - The max theoretical RPM of an AC three phase electric motor is 16000.
https://forums.tesla.com/forum/forums/max-motor-rpm
EVs have a single reduction gear that is about 8/1. Max wheel RPM of 2000...with a wheel diameter of 30" that comes to 178.5 MPH. That's fast enough for me :) There is no need for a second gear. If you want more torque put a bigger motor.

OS - I would love to see the Roadster race NASCAR. The COG (center of gravity) is much lower than an ICE vehicle. The racing limit is the heat in the batteries. A P100D has 100 kWhrs, the Roaster has 200 kWhrs, the batteries will be half as stressed. Since these are arrays of small batteries, if you double the storage you double the available safe continuous output...or input.

I am betting the Semi has at least a 500 kWhr battery. Which is why it will charge so fast. If you hook a Mega-charger to a Model S it will melt :)

Tesla is trying to demonstrate what can be done with an EV. If he crashed and burns and I lose my money it won't change the fact that this can be done. If he isn't able to build reliable cars...someone else will. He has already changed the world.

Don't bother me with prices and monetary returns. That makes MY head spin :)
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Fri 17 Nov 2017, 17:57:53

I can't find which link, but I saw that prices for the Tesla semi start around $250K.

Price for a new 2018 conventional Peterbilt 389 with sleeper (before options) starts around $150K.
https://www.commercialtrucktrader.com/P ... LT|2313546
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 17 Nov 2017, 19:59:16

Here is the Roadster "carnival ride" video making the rounds:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C6nN-GlghAc

Again, we'll see if Tesla is still solvent in two years, but it's fun to watch this play out as it demonstrates what's possible when you approach R&D in a skunk-works money-is-no-option way.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 17 Nov 2017, 23:14:40

baha wrote:Tesla is trying to demonstrate what can be done with an EV. If he crashed and burns and I lose my money it won't change the fact that this can be done. If he isn't able to build reliable cars...someone else will. He has already changed the world.

I agree completely. I have stated several times to those like pstarr who act like Tesla having financial issues means EV's are a failure that Tesla may die a financial death, but their technology and ideas won't disappear.

I respect Musk as an engineer and a bold idea generator. I would prefer he tone down the marketing rhetoric and stop blatantly exaggerating schedules so consistently -- but that doesn't take away from all the cool EV designs his company is coming up with.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby baha » Sun 19 Nov 2017, 09:16:50

Last week I installed my first outdoor Powerwall. This Lady is from Denmark, speaks broken English and knows what she wants. She lives in the middle of Durham in a 75 year old house, has 3.8 kW of solar, and her yard is a jungle...not in a good way :)

We started by cutting three 6 foot tall bushes to the ground so we could get our lift in there. She said 'no problem, cut them down. The house has asbestos siding. I told the guys to wear a mask while drilling holes. I also told them the Powerwall could melt and run down the wall and the house would just be a little scorched. There was a reason they used asbestos...

We had to go in and out to do the install. It was low 60's. I kept closing the door behind me and she stopped me and said. Don't worry, the heat is off and I want fresh air...My kind of people :) I love my job :)

Outdoor Powerwall.jpg
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby EdwinSm » Thu 23 Nov 2017, 04:22:58

They made the 100 day target Musk set for the battery instillation, so they don't have to waive the invoicing! (Now if they could only meet the target dates on the cars :twisted: )

Tesla has finished installing the world's biggest lithium-ion battery and will switch it on over the coming days.

The 100-megawatt battery in South Australia is designed to provide security to the state's electricity grid.

It will store enough energy to power 30,000 homes for about an hour.

Tesla's chief executive Elon Musk had said the battery would be free if it was not installed within 100 days of signing a contract for the project.

It appears the company will meet the 1 December deadline for installation of the battery array, which will be connected to a wind farm run by French renewable energy company Neoen.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-42090991
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 24 Nov 2017, 16:32:45

Tesla all-electric semi truck to start at $150K.

So much for the FUD that the base price of the Tesla semi will be so high no one will want to buy it. The base price looks roughly comparable to diesel semi's. Now when you factor in the likely operating savings (including fuel and maintenance) over its lifetime, it looks very good economically.

Tesla said this week that its electric trucks will hit the market at a starting price of $150,000.

The Tesla Semi "expected base price" is for a truck that the company promises can drive fully loaded at highway speeds for 300 miles on a single charge. The Tesla Semi with a longer-range of 500 miles will cost $180,000.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/24/tesla-s ... ected.html
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 24 Nov 2017, 18:09:20

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Tesla all-electric semi truck to start at $150K.

So much for the FUD that the base price of the Tesla semi will be so high no one will want to buy it. The base price looks roughly comparable to diesel semi's. Now when you factor in the likely operating savings (including fuel and maintenance) over its lifetime, it looks very good economically.

Tesla said this week that its electric trucks will hit the market at a starting price of $150,000.

The Tesla Semi "expected base price" is for a truck that the company promises can drive fully loaded at highway speeds for 300 miles on a single charge. The Tesla Semi with a longer-range of 500 miles will cost $180,000.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/11/24/tesla-s ... ected.html
$150k? and $180k for the 500 mile version? Wow that's cheap. I thought it would be at least twice that.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 24 Nov 2017, 19:02:43

kublikhan wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:Tesla all-electric semi truck to start at $150K.
$150k? and $180k for the 500 mile version? Wow that's cheap. I thought it would be at least twice that.


Lets wait and see how much it actually costs when it actually gets manufactured and is actually for sale before we get too excited about this preliminary price announcement.

Of maybe I should say IF it gets manufactured and if it ever is actually for sale.

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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Sat 02 Dec 2017, 10:17:54

Elon Musk will send his Tesla Roadster to Mars on a giant rocket

http://money.cnn.com/2017/12/02/technol ... -stack-dom

Elon Musk says the first test launch of SpaceX's massive new rocket will happen next month.

Its destination? Mars.

Its cargo? A Tesla Roadster with David Bowie on the stereo.

The rocket, known as the Falcon Heavy, will lift off from Cape Canaveral, using the same launchpad as Apollo 11, Musk tweeted late Friday in the U.S.

"Will have double thrust of next largest rocket," he said. "Guaranteed to be exciting, one way or another."


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