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Making Tesla pt. 2

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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 15:06:13

China screws over Tesla

-teslas-model-3-big-mess-likely-get-worse

Did anybody else see that China has just set a national standard in China for supercharging networks for EVs? Yup---China just specified that all superchargers must use a government approved standard plug and have other standard features mandated by the Chinese government.

There is currently only one supercharger network in China---and that is the one set up by Tesla. The current Tesla supercharger network in China is incompatible with the national standard just set up by China. This means that China has just outlawed the existing Tesla supercharger network in China----and of course all Tesla cars in China are also in violation of the Chinese regulations too!

This will require Tesla to redo some aspects of all its supercharger sites in China to make them compatible with the new regulations. AND it means the plug currently used on Tesla vehicles is incompatible with the Chinese standard. All Tesla vehicles in China will have to be recalled and rewired to have the standard plug now required by Chinese regulations.

This is clearly a direct attack on Tesla by the Chinese government. Making the Chinese standard for superchargers incompatible with the existing Tesla supercharger network isn't just an acccident---China just took a big shot at Tesla's operations in China.

Cheers!

Image
So sorry---Tesla's plugs are now incompatible with the new Chinese legal standard for EV plugs. Please re-engineer all Tesla supercharging sites in China and please recall all prior Tesla's sold in China and install the new government approved plug, and please redesign all future Teslas to meet the new Chinese standard for EV electrical plugs. Have a nice day! :)
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 15:10:05

From the O_S link; "... It is capable of understanding in real-time what's happening around the vehicle, precisely locating itself on an HD map, and planning a safe path forward."

Since humans don't really understand what "understanding" is, I cry foul. While it may be very adept at making an analysis based on a library of choices and responses, and respond affectively, this isn't "understanding". This is the difference between an "expert system" and artificial "Intelligence". So-called AI systems don't know the difference between a wheelchair in the road and a wheelchair in the road with a human in it. It doesn't need to, and doesn't care. It sees an object in the road to be avoided. There is no capacity to differentiate between a judgment and an either/or choice.

A human has the capacity to avoid a van full of children stalled on a bridge, pedestrians walking on that bridge, or driving off the bridge to avoid both with unknown consequences. Intelligence is far more than an advanced difference engine.

The trade off is that a self driving car is unlikely to be prone to distractions as human drivers often are. That said, it seems to me that they are just as prone to being hacked, if not more. Even some of our most "secure" systems have been compromised, and I haven't seem much on that front regarding supposedly autonomous vehicles.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 15:14:14

Plantagenet wrote:China screws over Tesla

-teslas-model-3-big-mess-likely-get-worse

Did anybody else see that China has just set a national standard in China for supercharging networks for EVs? Yup---China just specified that all superchargers must use a government approved standard plug and have other standard features mandated by the Chinese government.

There is currently only one supercharger network in China---and that is the one set up by Tesla. The current Tesla supercharger network in China is incompatible with the national standard just set up by China. This means that China has just outlawed the existing Tesla supercharger network in China----and of course all Tesla cars in China are also in violation of the Chinese regulations too!

This will require Tesla to redo some aspects of all its supercharger sites in China to make them compatible with the new regulations. AND it means the plug currently used on Tesla vehicles is incompatible with the Chinese standard. All Tesla vehicles in China will have to be recalled and rewired to have the standard plug now required by Chinese regulations.

This is clearly a direct attack on Tesla by the Chinese government. Making the Chinese standard for superchargers incompatible with the existing Tesla supercharger network isn't just an acccident---China just took a big shot at Tesla's operations in China.

Cheers!

Image
So sorry---Tesla's plugs are now incompatible with the new Chinese legal standard for EV plugs. Please re-engineer all Tesla supercharging sites in China and please recall all prior Tesla's sold in China and install the new government approved plug, and please redesign all future Teslas to meet the new Chinese standard for EV electrical plugs. Have a nice day! :)


Maybe I missed it, Plant, but I din't see anything about Chinese chargers in your link.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 15:18:47

ghung wrote:Since humans don't really understand what "understanding" is, I cry foul. While it may be very adept at making an analysis based on a library of choices and responses, and respond affectively, this isn't "understanding". This is the difference between an "expert system" and artificial "Intelligence". So-called AI systems don't know the difference between a wheelchair in the road and a wheelchair in the road with a human in it. It doesn't need to, and doesn't care. It sees an object in the road to be avoided. There is no capacity to differentiate between a judgment and an either/or choice.

Yup

There is no need to cry conspiracy re China's decision to mandate another charger format. Perhaps China has a better way? Talking of which: it was Musk's conspiracy to fight the 'Better Place' technology that doomed EV to sure death.

Better Place pioneered this kind of network and began installing battery stations in 2008 in Israel. They even developed a robot that unloaded and loaded the batteries automatically as you trundled along on a conveyor.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 15:52:33

Battery swaps are about as practical as corn "liquor" ethanol. That you view them as the only way to make EVs work (hence EVs now being "doomed") shows how piss-poor your reading of the industry is.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 16:04:21

GHung wrote:
Maybe I missed it, Plant, but I din't see anything about Chinese chargers in your link.


Here's the relevant quote from my link above:

Tesla’s Chinese Supercharging network was just rendered obsolete by that country’s new charging standard;

Tesla cars already delivered in China will need to be modified in order to accept the standard charging plug;

New Tesla cars delivered in China will need some redesign, involving sheet metal and wiring changes, to accept the standard charging plug.


China is not playing nice with Tesla!

Cheers!

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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 16:13:37

asg70 wrote:Battery swaps are about as practical as corn "liquor" ethanol. That you view them as the only way to make EVs work (hence EVs now being "doomed") shows how piss-poor your reading of the industry is.


If the industry could standardize a range of batteries and the cars' battery trays, it could be quite practical. Battery stations could have fully charged batteries that have been tested, drivers could opt to pay more for higher-capacity batteries, and companies could offer battery subscription/lease programs so there wouldn't be as much anxiety about range and battery life.

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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 16:15:14

asg70 wrote:Battery swaps are about as practical as corn "liquor" ethanol. That you view them as the only way to make EVs work (hence EVs now being "doomed") shows how piss-poor your reading of the industry is.

Upon what criteria do you compare your expectorant stream with Ghung's analysis?
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby tita » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 16:44:14

Plantagenet wrote:Here's the relevant quote from my link above:

Cheers!

No no no, the most relevant quote is:
But the modesty and prudence formerly seen among Wall Street investment bankers disappeared several years ago in this Age of Unicorns.

:lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 16:50:54

tita wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:Here's the relevant quote from my link above:

Cheers!

No no no, the most relevant quote is:
But the modesty and prudence formerly seen among Wall Street investment bankers disappeared several years ago in this Age of Unicorns.

:lol: :lol: :lol:

You read and commented on Plant's link :shock:

And uncovered what counts. Remarkable 8)
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 17:34:58

pstarr wrote:Upon what criteria do you compare your expectorant stream with Ghung's analysis?


Care to translate that into English?
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 17:43:26

Racial discrimination class action lawsuit filed against Tesla in California

tesla-faces-discrimination-lawsuit

100 black Tesla workers seek redress for Tesla's racial discrimination against them

Cheers!

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TESLA is a "hotbed of racial discrimination" according to one black worker

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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 17:51:10

asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote:Upon what criteria do you compare your expectorant stream with Ghung's analysis?


Care to translate that into English?

Why would I bother to explain myself to you? You treat every comment, every analysis through your own misanthropic lens. When you give up your preconceived notions then we have an intelligent discussion. Until then you are an annoyance, and troll in denial of our own perceptions.

(hint: c. 1600, "to clear out the chest or lungs," a literal use of Latin expectoratus, past participle of expectorare, which in classical use was figurative, "scorn, expel from the mind," literally "drive from the breast, make a clean breast," from ex "out" (see ex-) + pectus (genitive pectoris) "breast" (see pectoral (adj.)). Its use as a euphemism for "spit")
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 18:05:07

pstarr wrote:Why would I bother to explain myself to you?


Well, I'm supposed to be in your ignore filter already. I don't know why you're engaging me at all.

pstarr wrote:You treat every comment, every analysis through your own misanthropic lens.


Misanthropic? You mean like "Anger burns it clean?" Oh, I can feel your love of your fellow men alright. It's there in every one of your ad homs.

pstarr wrote:(hint: c. 1600, "to clear out the chest or lungs,"...


In other words, off topic as it has nothing to do with Tesla. Shall I start flagging, then?
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 18:09:33

start flagging then. You know where the button is, and just as easy as you continual insults and distractions.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby EdwinSm » Wed 15 Nov 2017, 10:36:18

Back in the first post in Part 1 of "Making Tesla Profitable?" the question was asked if buying Solar City was a good idea.

I have just been looking at the short report to shareholders for the 3rd Quarter of 2017, and to me it seems that it was a good deal. Although the Energy Generation and Storage section is small compared to the automobile section (ie only about 10% of total sales), it seems to have a good 'Gross Margin' of around 25%, which is higher than for car sales (18%) and much better than the loss being made on services. Also revenue from that section is increasing (up 11% in the quarter).

What is hitting Tesla hard is R&D and "selling, general and administration" costs, and interest costs. However, the interest cost for the debt taken on from Solar City is well below the Operating Profit from the Energy Generation and Storage section, so it looks as if it was affordable.

Report at: http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ ... 017-3Q.pdf

My conclusion to date:- Buying Solar City was a good move, but it is too small compared with the automobile division to bring Tesla to profit by itself.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 15 Nov 2017, 10:56:08

I think Tesla could be less than a year away from shuttering, all revolving around whether they fix manufacturing problems. Everything Tesla has done so far has been just a prelude to the Model 3. The Model 3 rollout will determine the fate of the company and so far they've botched it. The turnover in the C-suite is the biggest red flag to me. If it were really steady as she goes at the bottom of the S-curve you would not be seeing that sort of turnover. It's far too late in the game for them to be flying by the seat of their pants. Do I think they can pull it around? I'm only giving them 50/50 odds at this point and will revise my predictions as time goes on. The Tesla Semi announcement on Thursday (or the Model Y, Roadster 2, etc...) is really just pie in the sky if they can't survive long enough to even satisfy all existing Model 3 reservations.

As a startup they have burned through money as if they thought they could infinitely raise capital. If they were to have just moved slower and not tripped over themselves on quality control they would not be in this mess.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Wed 15 Nov 2017, 11:55:08

The mods should start banning those who turn every thread into an insult party.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Wed 15 Nov 2017, 11:57:16

asg70 wrote:I think Tesla could be less than a year away from shuttering, all revolving around whether they fix manufacturing problems. Everything Tesla has done so far has been just a prelude to the Model 3. The Model 3 rollout will determine the fate of the company and so far they've botched it. The turnover in the C-suite is the biggest red flag to me. If it were really steady as she goes at the bottom of the S-curve you would not be seeing that sort of turnover. It's far too late in the game for them to be flying by the seat of their pants. Do I think they can pull it around? I'm only giving them 50/50 odds at this point and will revise my predictions as time goes on. The Tesla Semi announcement on Thursday (or the Model Y, Roadster 2, etc...) is really just pie in the sky if they can't survive long enough to even satisfy all existing Model 3 reservations.

As a startup they have burned through money as if they thought they could infinitely raise capital. If they were to have just moved slower and not tripped over themselves on quality control they would not be in this mess.


For what it's worth and for the record, TSLA is up over 67% in the past year.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 15 Nov 2017, 14:32:28

They're still surfing on investor goodwill, but we're at the extreme tail end of that phase. I'd say they have roughly 90 days before they have to start shipping Model 3s to non-employees, and not just ship, but ship cars with tight fit and finish, otherwise there will be an investor mutiny and calls for Musk's head on a platter. The early adopter beta-testers excuse worked for the S and even the X but it doesn't fly well with the 3. That's why I'm giving them a roughly 50/50 chance. What is happening now with Musk, regardless of whether he's successful or not, will go down in the history books. If anything it will be a dramatic turn of events.

...go back to being a fun place to visit.


You call musing on Malthusian die-offs fun?
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