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Making Tesla pt. 2

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby baha » Sat 11 Nov 2017, 12:07:44

You're right asg...I am a classic car enthusiast. The real first adopters will be more down to earth. But I believe conversions will become mainstream after the tech is proven. It doesn't have to be a classic...you can have bells and whistles if you want.

All money is disposable...it's just how and when you want to dispose of it. The 'Bang' you speak of is subjective...When everyone is zooming around in a cookie cutter EV, I will be one of a kind...as always :)

The EV will be my daily driver and PV service vehicle. The van will be for trips and camping. At least for now...
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 11 Nov 2017, 12:31:23

Good for you. The hype (and smugness) of those doing these sorts of EV conversions hit a fever pitch about 10 years ago. You know, the White Zombie drag racing and all that stuff. I'll admit I have not kept up with developments since then. It served a purpose back then to raise awareness but that kind of homebrew phenomenon was never going to become mainstream.

I also don't see how more modern vehicles which are so complicated will ever become a conversion target. The old cars work because there's almost nothing to them besides sheet-metal and wheels. I can see how the vintage car scene might increasingly opt to EV conversions as it becomes less politically correct to drive them around with big honking muscle-car engines. The purism of keeping these cars all-original might start to fade. Even then, that's a hard sell for classic cars that aren't as small and light as VWs. So many classic cars from the 30s to the 70s are huge behemoths.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 11 Nov 2017, 19:21:14

The price of TESLA's bonds are collapsing

tesla-bonds-tumble-record-low-

This means investors are worried that TESLA isn't going to be able pay off the bonds.

Why so worried?
1. The EV tax credit is going away--that will hurt sales
2. The TESLA manufacturing process isn't working---hardly any cars are being produced
3. The cars that are being produced have quality control issues---
4. Tesla is losing HUGE amounts of money every quarter.

I hope Elon steps in and fixes these problems. This is getting bad.

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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 11 Nov 2017, 21:46:03

Plantagenet wrote:The price of TESLA's bonds are collapsing

tesla-bonds-tumble-record-low-

This means investors are worried that TESLA isn't going to be able pay off the bonds.

Why so worried?
1. The EV tax credit is going away--that will hurt sales
2. The TESLA manufacturing process isn't working---hardly any cars are being produced
3. The cars that are being produced have quality control issues---
4. Tesla is losing HUGE amounts of money every quarter.

I hope Elon steps in and fixes these problems. This is getting bad.

If the bonds don't get paid, that means bankruptcy. So why isn't Tesla stock collapsing? It has fallen about 20% -- reflecting concerns about the issues you cite.

And good old zerohedge, acting like the complaints of one blogger reflect all that is Tesla. Sure.

No mention, of course, that they just bought an automation company they have done a lot of work with, to make a big push to fix the Tesla Model 3 production problems.

Now, I don't know whether that will be successful. But not to mention it shows your and zerohedge's bias.

Heaven forbid that a balanced and thoughtful discussion of the company's merits and faults take place aiming at an actual assessment instead of a given individual's agenda.

But let's not forget: If Tesla goes bankrupt, their knowledge and expertise doesn't disappear. And the plans and efforts of all the other companies involved in electrification (including completely eliminating pure ICE cars) don't go away -- in fact, they're strengthened in the EV catagory if Tesla goes away.

Now, does Tesla being down about 20% reflect the risk in them being (according to current plans) three months late getting to 5000 model 3's produced a month? I don't know. That's what the various markets are for -- they're a reflection of the opinion of "the wisdom of crowds" which is a far better measure of success or failure than any given pundit -- pro or con -- re Tesla, and EV's in general.

I've already seen recent bullish stories on GM, figuring Tesla stumbling is gravy for GM, for example.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Sat 11 Nov 2017, 23:11:25

Run for the exits!

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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Sun 12 Nov 2017, 03:30:47

Tesla reminds me a lot of Enron. Everything peaches and cream and hopium right up until the very end when the dream exploded into bankruptcy and fraud.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 12 Nov 2017, 13:17:47

Cog wrote:Tesla reminds me a lot of Enron. Everything peaches and cream and hopium right up until the very end when the dream exploded into bankruptcy and fraud.

You do realize being wrong isn't fraud as long as you're not deliberately making false disclosures, right? It's also not illegal to be stupidly wrong.

Tesla could easily go bankrupt. Every investor with an actual sense of objectivity knows that. (Tesla fanbois don't tend to be at ALL objective, IMO). Do you have actual evidence of fraud? Because if you do, I'm sure Tesla investors (both long and short) would like to know that, as well as the authorities. But meanwhile, again, even being over-optimistic to the point of being stupid isn't fraud and it isn't illegal.

Disclosure:

1. I'm rooting for Tesla technology to be successful, because I want to see lots of EV's replace ICE's ASAP to help in AGW mitigation.

2. As far as Tesla itself surviving -- I really don't care, re my investments. My option calendar spreads do best over time if Tesla just bounces around, with rumors of the good and the bad tending to balance out on the price -- so I actually like it best if it neither rises nor swoons rapidly. Where it ends up higher or lower over time, I really don't care much re my investment. (I know that probably sounds unusual or even impossible to the uninitiated, but stock options allow a tremendous variety of investment stances on a volatile stock if you have a little capital, imagination, patience, and aren't afraid of a potential loss.)
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 12 Nov 2017, 21:31:24

pstarr wrote:No I did not. Try reading what I actually said.


The thread is ultimately Making Tesla and not SpaceX. I made an aside that Musk is better suited to SpaceX, not to send the thread down a detour. Tesla and SpaceX are separate companies and we don't need 10 pages of the entire board playing whack-a-mole as you try (and fail) to prove the SpaceX spends more money to retrieve the recycled boosters back than it would cost to build new ones. If you won't let this go I'll start flagging you mercilessly as OT.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 12 Nov 2017, 23:00:28

Off topic SpaceX diversion has been moved to the SpaceX Thread, feel free to continue it there, not here.

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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 12:28:10

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:The price of TESLA's bonds are collapsing

tesla-bonds-tumble-record-low-

This means investors are worried that TESLA isn't going to be able pay off the bonds.

Why so worried?
1. The EV tax credit is going away--that will hurt sales
2. The TESLA manufacturing process isn't working---hardly any cars are being produced
3. The cars that are being produced have quality control issues---
4. Tesla is losing HUGE amounts of money every quarter.

I hope Elon steps in and fixes these problems. This is getting bad.


I took another look at this issue this morning, noticing another article on the bonds. Given the zerohedge proclivity for being a drama queen instead of accurately "reading the news", let's look at some data.

1). The recent Tesla 5.3% bonds sold when the company was at or near the peak of its optimism now seem to be trading 93.875 bid and 95.375 asked. The original price was 100. So the "collapse" is in the range of 5.5% or so (current quote).

https://www.bondsupermart.com/main/bond ... U8810LAA18

2). Per the article that reminded me of this:

The 5.300% notes, which mature in 2025, were trading at 93.81 cents on the dollar on Friday to yield 6.320%, according to trading platform MarketAxess.

I would hardly call the interest rate being a percent higher (at the bottom of the bid-ask range of the spread) being a disaster. I would call that very reasonable, given that Tesla is now stating it is a full three months behind in their former schedule to get to Model 3 volume production, while significant cash drain proceeds.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla ... yptr=yahoo

...

Again, I don't know if the bulls or the bears are right. The truth is likely to be somewhere in between the arm waving extremes each side paints, as they try to make their case.

It's unfortunate that so little analysis of "hot" tech companies" is done with a "professional" level of dispassion -- I suppose that's what happens when the vast majority of opinions come from people with a financial interest in what happens.

...

To me, where things really go off the rails is when pundits try to link NVDA's fortunes to Tesla's. While NVDA might potentially sell a lot of hardware to Tesla (or not) -- their fortunes are linked to a broad future involving AI, robotics, automated cars, gaming, crypto-currencies, and generally, the broad demand for more and more powerful CPU's for many applications. Because, again, Tesla may die a financial death, but that doesn't mean that this ongoing technology wave will be gone or even deferred.

(No matter how many pstarrs and starving lions randomly claim otherwise, as though the technology advances aren't real.)
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 12:58:43

CPU ALU's handle complex operations with large instruction sets, while GPUs can only handle simple operations, though at high speed. So for instance GPU's parallel architecture is devoted to mathematical operations (to move entire screens of bits/bytes quickly) but even that is limited. GPUs perform graphics computation in single precision floating point, regardless of the final output precision and type required, as long as single precision floating point is sufficient to represent the final precision and type required. But that is all that is needed.

CPU ALU's on the other hand have many more and complex logical instruction sets to manipulate complex logical decisions. They have always handled double-precision floating-point numbers. NVIDIA's processors are what they are, do not have the capacity to mimic the human mind.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 13:09:33

pstarr wrote:NVIDIA's processors are what they are, do not have the capacity to mimic the human mind.


That's not required in order to perform the necessary tasks. Also, the human mind has proven to be, um, unreliable as it is with driving. Perfect mimicry would be a bad idea.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news ... un-8873773
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 13:24:09

asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote:NVIDIA's processors are what they are, do not have the capacity to mimic the human mind.


That's not required in order to perform the necessary tasks.
It depends on what you consider a "necessary task." Just to brake upon recognition of a red tail light, then sure AI has a leg up on humans. It's sensors and response program are dedicated not distracted.

Humans place that red tail light into a broader context. Highway stop-and-go is simple. But what of signs of trouble ahead? Gerry Lane wisely threw his car into reverse, rather than simply stopping. He knew something was up ahead. No computer ever will understand context.

asg70 wrote:Also, the human mind has proven to be, um, unreliable as it is with driving. Perfect mimicry would be a bad idea.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news ... un-8873773

unreliable yes, but the best there is until proven else wise. Siri, VR and AI have yet to prove themselves. Still gameboy wet dreams.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 13:29:53

pstarr wrote:NVIDIA's processors are what they are, do not have the capacity to mimic the human mind.

Facepalm.

Robotic vision, to name just ONE ability, will greatly expand automation's capabilities (and has already begun to do so).

Being able to perceive objects in 3D, and therefore react to the environment, vs. just move in a purely rote preprogrammed manner will allow all sorts of advances.

Examples: A robot that looks like a snake that can make sense of a pile of boxes and restack, sort, move, etc. those boxes. Vision systems that greatly enhance self-driving cars. General materials handling capability that fill a lot of "in-between" phases of assembly line production that today are low skilled "parts collecting, stacking, and moving" jobs filled by people. Manipulate objects like food in 3D, allowing automated cooking to replace lots of fast food jobs.

And on and on.

No part of this, or playing chess or go, or Watson beating the best at Jeopardy, or robotic surgeons, or any other tool of AI that is being developed currently (that I'm aware of) requires anything REMOTELY like "emulating the human mind".

That's just your usual FUD and distraction.

Plus, at some point, when I want house plans drawn, or a loan evaluated, etc., I don't CARE whether what did the work was "intelligent" like a human or an AI -- only that the work is reliably quality work, and the value of the work vs. the cost. Apparently society overall agrees with me, given the way machine intelligence continues to do more tasks.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 13:40:42

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
pstarr wrote:NVIDIA's processors are what they are, do not have the capacity to mimic the human mind.

Facepalm.

Robotic vision, to name just ONE ability, will greatly expand automation's capabilities (and has already begun to do so).

Being able to perceive objects in 3D, and therefore react to the environment, vs. just move in a purely rote preprogrammed manner will allow all sorts of advances.

Perceive? NVIDIA GPU's don't perceive anything. They paint pixels on a screen. Perception is vastly different then coordinate mapping. It us defined as "the state of being or process of becoming aware of something through the senses."

A definition dependent upon another definition: awareness.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 13:52:38

pstarr wrote:Siri, VR and AI have yet to prove themselves.


How is that any different from any other technology in its early stages? This is why you come across as a luddite. It's like if it were the early stages of aircraft you'd probably be doubting we'd ever break the sound barrier, let alone go to the moon. When you're at the bottom of any difficult project it always seems insurmountable. It's people with can-do attitudes who pull it off and people like you who just sit around trolling forums while you gather passive income from your rental properties. So forgive me if I don't give a lot of credence to your opinions. You're not an expert on this topic, only an expert in FUDdery.


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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 14:14:35

asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote:Siri, VR and AI have yet to prove themselves.


How is that any different from any other technology in its early stages?

Early stage? Or perhaps it's an end stage? Progress is neither assured, constant, forward-moving or exponential. Claims for VR, AI and robocars depends on computer chip circuitry mimicking the human brain and at least imitating 'awareness'.

But then 'computer awareness' requires other fanboy technologies. Neural networks, biocomputers, photonic computing, quantum computing blah blah blah and the rest are simply marketing gimmicks now. You and the other fanboy know nothing about either computer architecture or artificial intelligence. I studied both. It's a con. Another Big Con to prop up the markets.

asg70 wrote:This is why you come across as a luddite.
I obviously don't how I come across to you. That's because you come across to me as a humorless fearful drone, who can't imagine giving up your blessed consumer lifestyle.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 14:24:41

pstarr wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
pstarr wrote:NVIDIA's processors are what they are, do not have the capacity to mimic the human mind.

Facepalm.

Robotic vision, to name just ONE ability, will greatly expand automation's capabilities (and has already begun to do so).

Being able to perceive objects in 3D, and therefore react to the environment, vs. just move in a purely rote preprogrammed manner will allow all sorts of advances.

Perceive? NVIDIA GPU's don't perceive anything. They paint pixels on a screen. Perception is vastly different then coordinate mapping. It us defined as "the state of being or process of becoming aware of something through the senses."

A definition dependent upon another definition: awareness.

You can play whatever semantics games you want. Processing the data from chips capable of perceiving objects in 3D is the reality now. NVDA, among others, is in the business of building tools to use that capability to help turn fully autonomous cars into a reality.

Whether you're ignorant of that or not.

The NVIDIA DRIVE PX platform combines deep learning, sensor fusion, and surround vision to change the driving experience. It is capable of understanding in real-time what's happening around the vehicle, precisely locating itself on an HD map, and planning a safe path forward.


https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/self-drivi ... /drive-px/

It doesn't matter whether a fully autonomous car groks objects the way a person does via some philosophical definition of "perception". Only that it can reliably learn to navigate and not hit such objects. Not that you seem to be able to comprehend how abilities like that are AI.

Hint: AI doesn't have to be like C3PO to work just fine within its domain. Trust me -- outside its domain, my chess program was dumb as a brick. And yet it beat the crap out of the casual players and groups of players that took it on (and swore at it a lot) near its completion in 1981. Now, I'll call that AI, even though it never "saw" or "perceived" or even understood the concept of a chess board -- only mathematical constructs to represent a chess position.

You do sound a lot like philosophers have for decades, who are in complete denial of what AI can potentially do -- just as Chess grandmasters were in denial for decades that chess programs could ever defeat THEM. (And I discussed this with some of them. They were totally dismissive of me, a non-grandmaster, until they learned I actually had written such software, and it worked. Then they were only 95% dismissive. LOL)
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 14:32:23

pstarr wrote:I studied both.


Oh, really? At Stoner Academy? Was that back when Game of Life on a COSMAC Elf was considered state of the art?

New flash, Rip Van Winkle. Things have changed since then.

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pstarr wrote:who can't imagine giving up your blessed consumer lifestyle.


Luckily, I don't need to give it up anytime soon, which is what makes your blood boil so.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 13 Nov 2017, 14:48:54

Tesla has tied his fortune to AI, autopilot and autonomous vehicles. He said that that by the end of 2017, he'll produce a Tesla that can drive itself from Los Angeles to New York City, no human needed.
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