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Making Tesla pt. 2

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 02 Nov 2017, 01:11:16

Is anyone really surprised?
Haven't you heard? I'm a doomer!
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby baha » Thu 02 Nov 2017, 12:12:22

Ok, this is getting ridiculous...Talk about spoiled.

We (not me) just installed a dual Tesla charging system. These folks have two Tesla's. I think they are two MDs...good for them :) They are on a 100 amp circuit that is shared. There is a datalink between the chargers. One is master, the other is slave. When one car is plugged in it gets the full 24 kW of charge. If there are two, they share based on state of charge of each car, or maybe who's in charge...I'm betting on the woman :)

Dual chargers.jpeg
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But it is pretty cool :) Here is the future.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 02 Nov 2017, 18:56:18

baha wrote:Ok, this is getting ridiculous...Talk about spoiled.

We (not me) just installed a dual Tesla charging system. These folks have two Tesla's. I think they are two MDs...good for them :) They are on a 100 amp circuit that is shared. There is a datalink between the chargers. One is master, the other is slave. When one car is plugged in it gets the full 24 kW of charge. If there are two, they share based on state of charge of each car, or maybe who's in charge...I'm betting on the woman :)

Dual chargers.jpeg


But it is pretty cool :) Here is the future.

Betting against the Wife will get you sleeping in the dog house. :)
Looks like there is enough cord on each charger to reach either Tesla so it comes down to who is in charge and needs to go further just grabbing the car with the highest charge.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 02 Nov 2017, 20:53:22

baha wrote:These folks have two Tesla's. I think they are two MDs...


Two wealthy doctors DEFINITELY shouldn’t be getting a tax credit when they buy two posh sports cars.

We should be giving tax credits to poor people who need economic help—-not to wealthy people who don’t need the tax credit anyway

Cheers!

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---President Obama, 4/25/16
"Il bel far niente"
---traditional Italian saying
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 02 Nov 2017, 21:47:47

Plantagenet wrote:
baha wrote:These folks have two Tesla's. I think they are two MDs...


Two wealthy doctors DEFINITELY shouldn’t be getting a tax credit when they buy two posh sports cars.

We should be giving tax credits to poor people who need economic help—-not to wealthy people who don’t need the tax credit anyway

Cheers!

Oh there you go again. Why would you think any tax credits are for anyone that did not contribute to both sides campaigns?
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 02 Nov 2017, 21:48:30

baha wrote:Ok, this is getting ridiculous...Talk about spoiled.

We (not me) just installed a dual Tesla charging system. These folks have two Tesla's. I think they are two MDs...good for them :) They are on a 100 amp circuit that is shared.

Wow, 100 amps. Just for charging the cars. That's the service capacity what I have in my whole house, and if memory serves, when we tested my whole house generator (for load assessment), I turned on basically everything in the house I could think of except space heaters and we only approached half the 75 Amp steady state capacity of the generator.

I know the average new house typically has more like a 200A service level, but in the future if many households have two (or more) EV's eating 100 Amps for hours many nights, that starts to sound like a really significant capacity issue, unless I'm missing something.

(Obviously if Tony Seba is right and Solar and rooftop Battery systems become overwhelmingly popular by 2030 it's a moot point).
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 02 Nov 2017, 22:11:18

Outcast_Searcher wrote:I know the average new house typically has more like a 200A service level, but in the future if many households have two (or more) EV's eating 100 Amps for hours many nights, that starts to sound like a really significant capacity issue, unless I'm missing something.

Yes you are beginning to grasp the problem. Compute 100 amps times 220 volts =22KWHs @0.20/KWH= $4.40 per charging hour times 2 cars times four hours per day per car=$1060/m extra on the electric bill. The price of your next physical just went up.

(Obviously if Tony Seba is right and Solar and rooftop Battery systems become overwhelmingly popular by 2030 it's a moot point).
Solar panels that deliver 75 times 2 KWHs a day stored in batteries to be transferred to Tesla's' at night when the cars are home parked?
Hope you have a large vacant back yard to mount the panels on.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 03 Nov 2017, 10:01:56

vtsnowedin wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:I know the average new house typically has more like a 200A service level, but in the future if many households have two (or more) EV's eating 100 Amps for hours many nights, that starts to sound like a really significant capacity issue, unless I'm missing something.

Yes you are beginning to grasp the problem. Compute 100 amps times 220 volts =22KWHs @0.20/KWH= $4.40 per charging hour times 2 cars times four hours per day per car=$1060/m extra on the electric bill. The price of your next physical just went up.

(Obviously if Tony Seba is right and Solar and rooftop Battery systems become overwhelmingly popular by 2030 it's a moot point).
Solar panels that deliver 75 times 2 KWHs a day stored in batteries to be transferred to Tesla's' at night when the cars are home parked?
Hope you have a large vacant back yard to mount the panels on.

Thinking about this some more, however, you're greatly overstating the problem for the average driver. Let's remember that various credible estimates (like for the Chevy Volt, the Toyota Prius, etc) are that the average person drives well under 50 miles a day.

Now, it's better for the battery and for the charging efficiency not to keep the battery at 100%, but more like 80% or even 60%, So for a person with a 200+ mile car lets say they usually aim for 80% once charged, and for the 300+ mile car they go for 60%, unless they're planning a long trip. So now, in 30 minutes or less, you can get quite a bit of charging done with 100 amps. So if we accept your cost figures, an eighth (or less) of $35.20, or $4.40 a day for both cars. The better battery efficiency at the lower charge level and the fact that the realistic average driving amount greatly drives down the amount of charging needed.

Oh, but the national average electric utility rate is only a little over half the 20 cent figure you give. So more like $2.30 a day. Or double the charging time to an hour a car and you're still under $5 for both cars.

http://www.neo.ne.gov/statshtml/204.htm

$4+ to run two cars to work and back for the average commuter really doesn't sound bad at all, even at $2.50 gasoline rates.

Or are you going to claim the average commuter really needs to completely charge a 75 KWH battery every day, even on weekends, to get the $1060 (FUD figure of doom) you are giving? Because I don't find that REMOTELY credible, even at a glance.

But back of the envelope, an eighth of that in a near-optimal battery efficiency range should provide 30ish to 50ish miles of commuting, ballpark, just fine. But we can go with a quarter of that charge using the more realistic electricity cost on average.

Is it just habit that the doomers go for the zerohedge-like worst possible scenario at every opportunity, without thinking about is that rational or realistic? Because when that happens again and again, then for folks who are looking for reasonable estimates instead of doom -- such behavior can't be considered credible over time, IMO.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 03 Nov 2017, 11:39:04

A few facts. My actual electric bill charges $0.21/KWH after the first 200KWHs. A common price in the North east and will be the cost of any new capacity added anywhere in the country especially if they are doing much with renewable s. The 200 odd million cars in America are driven 15,000 miles per year or 41 miles per day seven days a week. Average new car mileage is 25 mpg so 600 gallons of gas @$2.55/gal= $1530 per year fuel cost.
Tesla's figures show a 265 mile range on a 60 KWH charge or 0.22KWH /mile. It makes no difference if your driving on the top of a charge or halfway down the charge cycle so 15,000X .022=3300 KWH/year and with a charger efficiency of 83 percent you will get charged for 3976KWHs on your meter Or $835 @21cents per KWH. So you are $695 a year ahead of the gas job and if you consider a five year turn around you could pay $3475 more for the Tesla and the charger setup. Unfortunately Tesla's cost a lot more then the new gas car getting 25mpg or better. A model S lists for $69,200 While a new Toyota Camry lists for $26,500 and gets 34 mpg combined.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby baha » Fri 03 Nov 2017, 16:12:12

I'm not quite to the fact stage yet but I have projections.

Based on my research and other EVW owners I can expect my electric VW to get 100 miles for around 25 kWhrs. Here in NC that is $2.75. Unless you have excess solar production. Then it's free :) I can get an electric VW conversion kit with 100 mile range for $18K. Add another $8k for each additional 100 miles of range. At today's prices.

My 2015 Eco-boost Van averages 30 mpg. 100 miles = 3.3 gallons. At current pump prices in NC that is about $8. Add oil and filter changes and the EVW is three times cheaper...I paid $25k for the van new.

I will charge the EVW with my existing solar so I will never pay to ride again.

I plan to keep them both. One for work and one for play. But I'm not sure which is which...They're both Red :)
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby baha » Fri 03 Nov 2017, 16:43:59

This is what I have in mind except not quite so low and Red!

squareback.jpg
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A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 03 Nov 2017, 17:35:24

vtsnowedin wrote:A few facts. My actual electric bill charges $0.21/KWH after the first 200KWHs. A common price in the North east and will be the cost of any new capacity added anywhere in the country especially if they are doing much with renewable s. The 200 odd million cars in America are driven 15,000 miles per year or 41 miles per day seven days a week. Average new car mileage is 25 mpg so 600 gallons of gas @$2.55/gal= $1530 per year fuel cost.
Tesla's figures show a 265 mile range on a 60 KWH charge or 0.22KWH /mile. It makes no difference if your driving on the top of a charge or halfway down the charge cycle so 15,000X .022=3300 KWH/year and with a charger efficiency of 83 percent you will get charged for 3976KWHs on your meter Or $835 @21cents per KWH. So you are $695 a year ahead of the gas job and if you consider a five year turn around you could pay $3475 more for the Tesla and the charger setup. Unfortunately Tesla's cost a lot more then the new gas car getting 25mpg or better. A model S lists for $69,200 While a new Toyota Camry lists for $26,500 and gets 34 mpg combined.

I looked at several sources, and it looks like the average miles driven per year in the US is more like 13,500 -- about midway between our figures.

Your electric rate isn't the average. The average is the average. I provided a reference. Tesla uses 12 cents per KWH, which is close to the 10.4ish cents average my reference for 2015 gave.

Just because you want the reference price to be over 20 cents per KWH doesn't mean it should be.

Let's try another source in case mine was wrong:

https://www.electricchoice.com/electric ... -by-state/

I count two states with a rate higher than 20 cents. So should we pretend like rates are really averaging over 20 cents? I vote no. Not even close.



It DOES make a difference how charged the battery is when you charge it, as I stated. Not charging it over a certain level (like 60% to 80% as I mentioned) makes the charging quicker and more efficient.

See figures one and three in this link. It's pretty clear.

http://batteryuniversity.com/learn/arti ... _batteries

Saying it doesn't matter (and providing no credible reference) doesn't mean it doesn't matter.



Why are we talking about $70,000 EV's if we're worried about money? Why not talk about a Bolt or a Leaf after the federal tax credit for the next couple years? Then we can see where prices are. In the mean time, with the tax credit, those cost roughly what a Camry costs, so what's the problem?



But it's typical doomer strategy. If discussing something using facts and mainstream data doesn't work, try distorting things.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 03 Nov 2017, 18:47:03

Our present electric grid is supplied by a combination of Hydro power,coal , nuclear,natural gas, and a bit of renewables , wood , wind and solar. If we move to electric cars we will need to double the size of the grid's capacity. We can't expand hydro as all feasible sites are already developed and environmental activists will prevent any efforts to bring any questionable sites on line. NIMBY syndrome will prevent any new Nuclear plants and new coal fired plants are out of the question so you are left with natural gas up to the limits of the supply and renewables. There is no chance that any of those will come in at .104/KWH.
In case you haven't been watching the news notice that the tax subsidy for EVs is eliminated in the proposed tax bill and may well be gone by January one.
But if you are so certain of your figures go ahead and order your Tesla. I'll check back with you in five years or so to see how you made out. My current truck will be showing a bit of age by then and I might consider the options that are then apparent.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby baha » Sat 04 Nov 2017, 06:37:57

Outcast_Searcher wrote:It DOES make a difference how charged the battery is when you charge it, as I stated. Not charging it over a certain level (like 60% to 80% as I mentioned) makes the charging quicker and more efficient.


You are absolutely right OS.
When the battery is at 60% it will take charge fast and efficient. As it reaches 90 - 95% the rate of charge slows down. But in a real world scenario that doesn't matter.

If the level of charge is high you don't need to charge it anyway. When it is low and you need a fast 50 miles it will charge fast. Everybody has to sleep...charge while sleeping and you have a full tank in the morning. Go on a long trip, plug it in at lunch when the battery is at 50% and you very quickly get another 100 miles or on a supercharger, 200 miles.

I talked with a guy the other day who drove his Model X from here to Kansas. He mapped out chargers with his phone app and charged whenever he stopped to eat or rest. He made the trip in the same time as an ICE vehicle and didn't pay squat.

An EV only takes as much power as you use. Even at $.20/kW the EV is cheaper. If you can't afford cheaper, you should stay the hell home :)
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 04 Nov 2017, 09:53:30

Rather than trying to sell individuals like vt it's best to just write them off because they don't represent the mainstream.

The way these things tend to go is naysayers sit on the sidelines and FUD. But once they realize they're the last person on their block not to get with the times, they throw in the towel and join in. That happens with most all technology adoption. There are always a few stragglers in the back and usually what's really driving them is not so much a real issue. It's that they just DON'T LIKE CHANGE.

Most recently we saw this in the GOP-fueled campaign to prevent the phase-out of incandescent bulbs. It was nothing but trying to cling to the status quo out of irrational fear of change. Before long it will be hard to even find CFLs because LEDs are hitting critical mass (the S-curve ala Tony Seba). The market moves even without government mandates.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 04 Nov 2017, 11:07:37

Until electric only car sales reach fifty percent of the market I am the mainstream. :roll:
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby baha » Sat 11 Nov 2017, 06:31:06

asg - I am somewhat sceptical myself...

I spout off a lot of happy projections :) but in reality we are talking about unproven technology that is only maybe a decade old. Lithium batteries have promise, and are the best tech available but only time will tell. Electric drivetrains are superior by far...which is why I want one.

I have a way of making things melt or burn out of control. Efficiency is also about using everything to it's limits. And then it burns :( or goes crunch.

VT has a very demanding position, much like Plantagenet. They live in places with little sunshine and lots of cold. PV and EV technology will struggle to keep them comfy. They should be more worried about electric snowmobiles than cars. And they may have to wear their parka inside their EV...sucks to be them :)

Southern CA and NC to some extent are much more suitable for EV adoption. It will start there and as the technology develops it will expand, just like PV.

I said 8 years ago I was going to visit Plantagenet in my electric VW...maybe I should build this.
VW snowback.jpg
VW snowback.jpg (97.39 KiB) Viewed 376 times


If I took all the parts from my '63 Bahabug and combined them with the '71 Squareback I would get this.
VW sandback.jpg
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The possibilities are endless...should I be planning for an electric Mad Max scenario?
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 11 Nov 2017, 09:07:18

EV conversions were at one time a response to the lack of affordable EVs for those who desperately wanted to get off of fossil fuels. These days EV conversions are really just a greenwashed flavor of car restoration.

There's really no way to take an old car like a VW and convert it into something with comparable performance with even a first gen used Leaf. You're really stuck with brushed DC motors, no regen, a manual transmission in the way, and crappy lead acid unless you want to spend big bucks. Then you have a car with no creature comforts, no self-driving features, and is (ironically for doomers who are presumably concerned about survival) death on wheels in an impact.

Believe me, I looked at this at one time because I had an old car I was thinking of restoring, one that would have been a little safer than a VW. Once the Volt and Leaf came out I knew the fad of EV conversions was over. I didn't buy in but I shelved my ideas and waited for the tech to hit the sweet spot which we're entering into now with the Model 3 and its looming competitors.

City cars / quadricycles like Revi keeps advocating are in much the same boat as converting an old car, only then you're left with even less protection and lower top speeds. So I feel these are even more of a non-starter outside of a Mad Max post-crash scenario.

I think once you get down to ebikes then that's something useful, but not as your main mode of transit.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby baha » Sat 11 Nov 2017, 10:21:07

This conversion uses AC motors, Lithium batteries, and regen braking...I wouldn't do this unless I could use modern tech.
http://www.evwest.com/catalog/product_i ... 145b9s03c6

It's only going to get better...

You don't see my motivations. The tag on my EVW will be 'RECYCLD' There is no more efficient way to make the transition than to convert existing rolling hardware. When the tech hits the sweet spot, this will be common place for hopeful entrepreneurs.

What is your definition of performance? Is it properly indexing your MP3s or blowing someone's doors off? Catch me if you can :) You don't know...I am a long-time car and bike fanatic. My first car was built one year after they mandated seat belts. I have spent my life with the assumption I will die behind the wheel. Better that than in a hospital.

My Instinct also says there will be a power down. You will have to chose between 100 mile range or 1/8 the weight. What are you planning to do?
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 11 Nov 2017, 11:17:37

baha wrote:What are you planning to do?


The only thing I can say is what I DON'T plan to do, which is to buy another gas car (new or used) again. What I'm nursing along is the end of the line for me, after which I will buy an EV of some kind. If the first EV I get is not my dream vehicle then it will be a bridge vehicle to carry me through into the 2020s when there should be a lot of choices out there in the $30-40K segment.

(I know, some here will say I'll be busy fighting zombies before then. I have my vision of the future and I'm living my life according to it.)

Now, despite the fact your conversion uses an AC motor and lithium it doesn't escape the other issues I listed out. So I stand by my assertion that those who go your route are motivated more by being classic car enthusiast first and a doom prepper second. The bang for the buck is simply not there.

If I had the disposable cash I might have done the same as you with the intention of owning a new EV as my main ride and taking the classic EV conversion out on Sunday drives but I wound up donating it to an enthusiast who has put it back on the road as a gas car instead. Not thrilled with it spewing CO2 again but it had too much sentimental value for me to let it rust away.
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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