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Making Tesla pt. 2

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 26 Jun 2015, 16:40:23

Timo, I love the idea of EV's. I have solar all over my roof. But I also know the limits of the technology in our suburban world. We'd do much better to spend our money, time, resources and current government good-will (like Obamacare and gay marriage yay :) ) to drill modern electric rail systems in and around said cities. Is that even discussed around here? NO.

It seems it much easier to get excited about an impossible dream though. We will never get over our love affair for the private auto. It's done. Over. Put flower over the grave.
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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby Timo » Fri 26 Jun 2015, 20:37:07

PS, I do agree with you on the principles of wasted energies in pursuit of fantasy technologies. I disagree with you on the premise that EVs are a fantasy technology. You are correct that the world, and Americans in particular, have an unhealthy love affair with the car, but in that same vein, even within that misguided love affair, EVs do have a role. That love affair isn't going to go away. If EVs can reduce the damage that would otherwise be inflicted by ICE, I'm for that. I don't believe that EVs are a waste of time, money, and pursuit. Heck! We're even seeing electric busses crop up in growing numbers now. That tech is certainly not a waste, and personal EVs play a very large role in developing the larger technologies that enable alternative means of transport to take root. I'll even point out that Navigant Research is forecasting that electric motorcycles and electric scooters will outsell EV cars by more than a 50 to 1 ratio. It may even be as high as 100 to 1, worldwide. EVs are here to stay, in a number of different vehicle formats. That's all good.
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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby Peak_Yeast » Fri 26 Jun 2015, 20:39:04

"Any owner of a Tesla can drive coast to coast, and pass through all 50 states FOR FREE!"

That should say: "Any owner of a Tesla can drive coast to coast, and pass through all 50 states at taxpayers/other peoples cost?

Right?
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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 26 Jun 2015, 22:34:20

Timo wrote:PS, I do agree with you on the principles of wasted energies in pursuit of fantasy technologies. I disagree with you on the premise that EVs are a fantasy technology. You are correct that the world, and Americans in particular, have an unhealthy love affair with the car, but in that same vein, even within that misguided love affair, EVs do have a role. That love affair isn't going to go away. If EVs can reduce the damage that would otherwise be inflicted by ICE, I'm for that. I don't believe that EVs are a waste of time, money, and pursuit. Heck! We're even seeing electric busses crop up in growing numbers now. That tech is certainly not a waste, and personal EVs play a very large role in developing the larger technologies that enable alternative means of transport to take root. I'll even point out that Navigant Research is forecasting that electric motorcycles and electric scooters will outsell EV cars by more than a 50 to 1 ratio. It may even be as high as 100 to 1, worldwide. EVs are here to stay, in a number of different vehicle formats. That's all good.


I forgot to mention I own an electric bike, bought 5 years ago on a closeout. It's nice. Now I own a power pack full of dead lithium ions in a configuration I have not bothered to replace. Next alt-vehicle will be a donkey cart.
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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby ennui2 » Sat 27 Jun 2015, 08:45:59

pstarr wrote:calculate the average distance one would to need to push their bricked Tesla down the rode for that pitiful little charge.


Down the "rode"?

pstarr wrote:Next you might want to figure the number of installation (and costs) of those Super-Duper Charging stations to replace a meaningful sample of current installed gas stations.


So it's a big number. Big whoop. You start at the bottom of the hill and you start pushing the damn boulder up. You have a really defeatist attitude. Nobody accomplishes anything if they simply freak out over the scale of the problem.

The supercharger network exists and it's sufficient to service the existing fleet of EVs, which is small. As the fleet grows, the network grows. And it's not like you have to charge your EV at a supercharger network. The analogy with gas stations is apples and oranges. The primary charge point will remain people's homes and nobody has a gas station at their home.

Seriously. You want to talk about networks? There was a time when only a few people had electricity or telephones. There was a time when the internet was only a few government and educational institutions. Then there was a time when most people were on dialup. Now almost everyone is on some form of broadband. It takes a large capital investment to do these sorts of things, but they are achievable.

pstarr wrote:Next alt-vehicle will be a donkey cart.


You're welcome to it. I've scrimped by driving a Mazda 3 for over a decade but I'm shooting for a Tesla Model 3 for my next ride and I expect the supercharger network to be viable enough to allow me to do the occasional road-trip.
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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby ennui2 » Sat 27 Jun 2015, 09:00:12

Peak_Yeast wrote:"Any owner of a Tesla can drive coast to coast, and pass through all 50 states FOR FREE!"

That should say: "Any owner of a Tesla can drive coast to coast, and pass through all 50 states at taxpayers/other peoples cost?

Right?


If you want to make a criticism, then back it up with some evidence. The supercharger cost is (supposedly) wrapped up in the price of the vehicle. Tesla is assuming how much use you're going to make of the network and padding the pricetag accordingly. Of course, their math could be off, but they are not intentionally taking a loss on it. I'm not aware of government grants or subsidies for the supercharger network or the electrons going through it, but if there are, I'd say that's a better expense than a lot of the stuff they subsidize which we take for granted, like big oil.

Some people here place their anti-big-government stance above the importance of moving off of fossil fuels. Seems to be misplaced priorities, but since the fracking boom a lot of the concern over the various dooms seems to have receded and people here just want to bitch and whine about politics based on whatever ideological bent they had before taking the red-pill.
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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 27 Jun 2015, 10:09:56

Peak_Yeast wrote:"Any owner of a Tesla can drive coast to coast, and pass through all 50 states FOR FREE!"

That should say: "Any owner of a Tesla can drive coast to coast, and pass through all 50 states at taxpayers/other peoples cost?

Right?


Last time I looked only 48 states touched, unless you switched British Columbia from Canada in exchange for Hawaii without me noticing.
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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 27 Jun 2015, 12:40:59

Tesla Model 3? Why wait? You can be a real early adapter and buy one of these right now.

Image

I'll bet you think I am kidding? What you are considering is no more practical than that joke. You must have a lot of disposable income because you will need a city car (your Tesla), a country car (your ICE) and a tow truck to get between the two. :razz:
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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby ennui2 » Sat 27 Jun 2015, 15:46:30

pstarr wrote:I'll bet you think I am kidding?


That's the problem I have with you, pstarr. You write like you're always kidding. How am I supposed to know when you're supposedly making a serious point? Why don't you knock yourself out of mocking mode for once? Your doomer curmudgeon performance-art of all things happening in the world being a sign that everyone's stupid (or at least stupider than you) is getting old and tired.

pstarr wrote:What you are considering is no more practical than that joke.


And why isn't it practical? Why is it a "joke"? It's not even out yet. You've never even seen it and you're ready to call it a "joke"? It's probably going to wind up looking like a cut-rate Model-S at a borderline Nissan Leaf price. I'd say that's a pretty killer product for a lot of people. Sorry that we're not all as poor as the arab spring poor that you keep citing as the leading-edge victims of peak-oil doom. I know your sympathies skew towards the meek of the earth, and that's fine, but meanwhile, some of us still belong to the middle-class and we don't have an aversion to buying things like this. I'm sorry that not all the products of modernity are or can be made available to everyone on the planet. There's gonna be haves and have nots, as there always has been. Get over it.

I'm already on a 10 year old gas car now, largely because of the frugality of paying off a car and driving it until the floorboards rust out. That car is going to become my daughter's and the EV is going to be my daily driver. And if I need a trip I can't make with the EV (which is rare) I can swap. I don't consider myself a spoiled yuppie who has to keep buying shiny new things the second they come out, even though I do have the take-home pay to pull that off. Is it bad that I would consider moving to an EV? If it were up to me I'd take the train to work, and I did in the fall until my office moved, but even then it was powered by diesel until I get to South Station. So again, what exactly is your problem with the idea of the Model 3? Are we really all supposed to be in 1970s Commutacars or donkey carts to avoid your mocking ridicule? Get real. Sometimes I think you just like to whine for the sake of whining.
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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 27 Jun 2015, 18:22:45

Mos, I always had you pegged for Boston. My family lives up there I went to school just outside. I grew to hate the place for some reason. I used to think it was cool, Its actually a hotbed of Empire Self Deception: haughty liberals who suck off the Machine and the riches that flow from US client nations and our own resource colonies . . . like here in the redwoods. You guys all seem to believe you are environmental, brilliant, and actually fighting the system.

But Boston is ultimately its about the old wealth that flows from the blue bloods, brahmins, heritage and inheritance down to the ivy leagues, hospital corporations, insurance, dying computer industry, and finally trickling down to baristas and artists. What an obnoxious place.

Regarding EV's: you'll know what I am talking about when you get stuck somewhere without a red jerry can to bail your trending %ss out. Oh, and by the way, why not the MTA? It was good enough for Charlie. :)
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sat 27 Jun 2015, 23:37:22

pstarr wrote:Oh, and by the way, why not the MTA? It was good enough for Charlie. :)
I just had an epiphany that this song is a metaphor for the world's growth and (finite) resource dependent system - we don't have the nickel to get off, and all anyone can think of is to toss sandwiches.
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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 28 Jun 2015, 08:30:39

pstarr wrote:I grew to hate the place for some reason.


Hate seems to be your specialty, and I see you've got quite a history with it.

I don't necessarily love my yuppie neighbors who are tearing down the old capes and replacing them with McMansions, BTW. Things gentrified greatly since I was a kid, which is, of course, off-topic. We should not be here to merely trade lists of groups we hate.

pstarr wrote:you'll know what I am talking about when you get stuck somewhere without a red jerry can to bail your trending %ss out



Do you approach anyone you meet in your daily life (probably not that many, being behind the redwood curtain as you are) who has an EV and try to shame them for their purchase or do you just reserve your mockery for online doomers? Either way, with that kind of simplistic FUD attitude you should consider working as a lobbyist for the Koch brothers. You'll find, pstarr, that if all you ever do is shoot down attempts at green-tech progress that the only thing left is BAU because nobody's going to join you (voluntarily) in donkey-cart existence.

I remember, I dunno if it was a year or two ago, you said you were really only here for yucks. It's threads like this that confirm it, because I know already that this reply will only make you double-down on more humor.

pstarr wrote:Oh, and by the way, why not the MTA? It was good enough for Charlie. :)


Because the M(B)TA doesn't provide full coverage in all of the job-centers in Eastern, MA. The MBTA was a big reason I moved back here in 2008 because I thought it was "the big one" for Peak oil (just like you still think it is and I don't). I was surprised that I've only ever had one job that allowed me to take it in, and even then, only as long as the office was in Cambridge. Then the winter was so severe that the trains started breaking down. I'd be surprised if it didn't bubble all the way into a national news story but it was a huge scandal here where the trains were not being maintained properly. For those who think I am blindly big-government, I do not want to see waste and incompetence to the point where local services can't function properly.

I suppose you'll just joke about this too. You've got this schadenfreude thing going where you just can't wait until everyone is wallowing in limits-to-growth misery. It's gotta happen because us spoiled Americans all deserve what's coming to us, right? It's our just desserts. It's not a joke, pstarr. At the same time, if some of us enjoy normalcy and creature-comfort a little longer, this clashes with your "it's already peak oil" vibe and you don't like the idea of that either. But you're not in control of it one way or the other. Deal with it.
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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby Logic » Sun 28 Jun 2015, 08:46:20

KaiserJeep wrote:Does everyone so enamored with Tesla understand that they cannot produce automobiles after cheap oil is gone? The cars are chock full of petrochemical plastics, remotely-manufactured components, and embodied energy in the fabrication processes, and they still cost $85K and up during the age of oil.

In a post-crash economy, it is estimated that a Tesla would cost over $1 million per car, if it could be manufactured at all, because of transportation costs for the components which are produced in many places from China to the EU and San Salvador.
...


Why limit it to Tesla? No modern popular car can be built cheaply when oil is gone.
Tesla will be better off than many, simply because more and more of its components are not only built in the U.S., but in the SouthWest.
Their battery packs will be built just a few hundred miles from their factory, transported by rail. Even the raw materials will be coming from local mines.

And, they cost $75k and up, not $85k :razz:
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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 28 Jun 2015, 09:27:59

Why stop there? Shall we not proceed all the way to the malthusian die-off that peak-oil mandates? The answer to that is that we're in an oil glut right now and I don't see a sharp oil-crash happening anytime soon. The embodied FF BTUs in a tesla is less egregious than an internal-combustion car. AGW is a more serious threat right now than peak oil, but we all know KJ's stance on that.
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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby Withnail » Sun 28 Jun 2015, 09:56:15

pstarr wrote:Mos, I always had you pegged for Boston. My family lives up there I went to school just outside. I grew to hate the place for some reason. I used to think it was cool, Its actually a hotbed of Empire Self Deception: haughty liberals who suck off the Machine and the riches that flow from US client nations and our own resource colonies . . . like here in the redwoods. You guys all seem to believe you are environmental, brilliant, and actually fighting the system.



Certainly MIT is a centre of the US military industrial complex.
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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 28 Jun 2015, 10:01:53

Withnail wrote:Certainly MIT is a centre of the US military industrial complex.


Unfortunately MIT is partly backed up by the Koch brothers. But at the same time, it hosts this:

http://cgcs.mit.edu/

and this

https://mitei.mit.edu/research

and this

http://www.fossilfreemit.org/

So what's your point?

We're going to just get diverted into "my part of the country is more pious than yours"?

The reality is more nuanced than that.
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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby Withnail » Sun 28 Jun 2015, 13:56:45

A Space X cargo rocket just blew up on the way to the space station, cause unknown.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?t=75&v=PuNymhcTtSQ
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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby GregT » Sun 28 Jun 2015, 22:35:25

Withnail wrote:A Space X cargo rocket just blew up on the way to the space station


Ba da boom. BIG ba da boom.
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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby GregT » Sun 28 Jun 2015, 22:42:17

ennui2 wrote:You've got this schadenfreude thing going where you just can't wait until everyone is wallowing in limits-to-growth misery. It's gotta happen because us spoiled Americans all deserve what's coming to us, right? It's our just desserts. It's not a joke, pstarr. At the same time, if some of us enjoy normalcy and creature-comfort a little longer, this clashes with your "it's already peak oil" vibe and you don't like the idea of that either. But you're not in control of it one way or the other. Deal with it.


Sounds like you're approaching the 'violent opposition stage' ennui2. It may take a while, but eventually you'll reach acceptance. I hope that you get there before it's too late. I'm not a big fan of seeing anyone suffer needlessly.
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Re: Actual Profitability of Tesla

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 28 Jun 2015, 22:46:57

GregT wrote:
Withnail wrote:A Space X cargo rocket just blew up on the way to the space station


Ba da boom. BIG ba da boom.

Truly, Mos needs to read up on the Five Stage of Grief. Nothing a little nano-glue won't repair.

Image
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