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PeakOil is You

Making Tesla pt. 2

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 11 Aug 2017, 11:17:40

Not only that, but the bigger picture is that most travel people do these days is wholly unnecessary. That even includes the daily commute, since telecommuting remains the exception rather the norm, despite the fact that most of us still just bang on keyboards for a living.

The economic output of a corporate drone who commutes to sit in a cubicle is no greater than when he sits at home.

The thermodynamic savings of society shifting to a combination of telecommuting AND increasingly robotaxi way of getting around is truly enormous. One would assume that if we did fall into a massive oil supply shortfall that society would skew this way in short order. I don't think we will see inflexible Melissa Mayer types telling their workforce they must continue to drive into work despite post-peak gas prices skyrocketing.

(BTW, at present I telecommute, but I realize this is the exception and not the rule, even in IT.)

So while, in theory, a world with no oil would be apocalyptic, even a sharp decline in oil supply is unlikely to cause the sort of Mad Max conditions that some peakers still dream about. And all that still assumes a sharp decline, not a continued buffer of supply from fracking.

You add up all these variables and I just can't quake in my boots over peak-oil right now. Only those who have constructed elaborate tightly-coupled economic models can hold onto peak-oil induced collapse.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 11 Aug 2017, 16:19:57

baha wrote:I keep saying 'change the world' and everyone keeps looking for conventional business practices. Tesla's business model is to deliver cars to your area without a dealer, just a depot. More like a computer than a car. What little service is needed is provided by roaming service trucks that fix it at your house or haul it to the depot. I know, I applied for a job doing this very thing. It sounds like fun :)

You may think this will never work. You don't understand the level of reliability an electric car will have.

I understand the theory. I've read about it. The problem is, so far, outside of southern CA and some big cities, it's more promises/marketing and theory than reality.

When I see Tesla service trucks out actually going to peoples' houses in central KY and fixing their Teslas, promptly and reliably, I'll be convinced. Or if I read credible articles about this going on across other "middle America" parts of the country. And the mobile service trucks won't suffice when the car needs to be put on a lift. So what happens then? How long am I without my Tesla then, and how inconvenient is that for me? (Do I have to drive it hundreds of miles to some big city? Do I get a loaner car while it's away, if Tesla takes it by lift truck? How much would I be charged for that?) These are the types of questions that MOST middle class car buyers will have, once we've passed the early adopters / enthusiast stage. (Say in a year or so, if all goes well).

And I strongly suspect most people would feel far more comfortable if such questions were answered at a nearby dealer, who will be there to stand behind the car. Not some web based marketing claims from the guy who is talking hyperloops, claiming cars will be completely autonomous in a few years, etc.

And as ASG correctly said, Tesla has had significant quality issues, and I say it likely will continue to at these early stages. Consumer Reports has confirmed this on the X and the S, so it's not just rumor or random denialists. Again, I think middle class consumers are going to care a lot about things like build quality. Tesla needs to catch up on that. That might be VERY challenging while trying to ramp up a new production process extremely rapidly on a (relatively speaking) shoestring budget.

I'm not saying the Tesla model won't "work". I'm saying there are a whole lot of unknowns, which makes it a somewhat high-risk venture, for those who want simple, convenient, reliable service from their car. For rich people (like model S drivers) who likely have other options, that's no big deal. For the typical middle class driver, I believe that's a MUCH bigger deal.

As I said before, such real world issues vs. all the "cool" and "wow" factor and Tesla potentially (if all goes well) being well ahead for volume production -- makes it a VERY interesting horse race.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby baha » Fri 11 Aug 2017, 18:21:32

All very good points...Interesting how we all have our own way of seeing it.

I hear you OS. You and I are in the same age range. We have a way we are used to doing business. And in the end you are right. https://electrek.co/2017/05/03/tesla-ne ... -3-launch/ Tesla is addressing those issues. I don't know the answers to your questions, but I know who to ask...A Tesla owner :) There is an 'EV week' here in Raleigh soon. I told the boss to count me in at the shows.

The younger crowd is more willing to accept changes. They think it's cool to get service at their house. I don't know the limits of that but it will start there.

I am a glass half full kind of guy...I love my new 1.6 turbo van and it can get 35 mpg. But I accept problems with fit and trim and fix them myself better :) I pulled the interior doors apart the first two weeks, added sound deadening and modified the intake. I base my happiness on comfort, versatility, throttle response, and mechanical reliability.

I have 2 antique VW's, if something falls off I pick it up, take it home, and fix it. Or kick it to the side of the road and pretend it's not mine :) I know, most people are uptight about these things. I'll remind you of that when I blow your doors off.

I dream of an electric car that is whisper quiet, 100% reliable, powered by solar, and tougher than me :) NO ONE is there yet. Give them time...I need another few years :)

Yes, you gotta love the show...we live in interesting times.
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby EdwinSm » Mon 14 Aug 2017, 23:55:49

The bond offering is raising even more than the original aim
Tesla aims to make 5,000 of its mass market Model 3 a week by the end of this year.

It has estimated it is already spending about $100m a week to hit that target.

On 4 August Tesla said was looking to raise $1.5bn by selling bonds, but said on Friday it now expected to raise $1.77bn from the sale.

The fundraising is limited to major institutions and not private investors.


The report indicates that the scale indicates lack of other places to 'park their money':-
Analysts said Tesla's ability to raise more than $1.5bn indicated an appetite for risk among investors, as low interest rates have limited returns in many other types of investments. High stock market valuations have also made it harder to make a profit.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40906793
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