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Making Tesla pt. 2

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 24 Oct 2017, 09:39:32

asg70 wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:IMHO we’ll now see a 100% Chinese Tesla killer based on 100% stolen Tesla technology come on the market a few years after this JV gets underway


Then we'll see tons of cancer cases because EVs cause cancer, right Plant?

THAT'll teach em!


That isn’t as funny as you think. Battery manfacturing is not exactly a squeeky clean process and when you ignore environmental issues and leads to a LOT of chemical pollution including carcinogens.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 24 Oct 2017, 10:02:58

Subjectivist wrote:That isn’t as funny as you think. Battery manfacturing is not exactly a squeeky clean process and when you ignore environmental issues and leads to a LOT of chemical pollution including carcinogens.


That's not what Plant is FUDing about. He thinks just driving around in one will cause cancer to the occupants.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 24 Oct 2017, 10:19:43

Plantagenet wrote:
asg70 wrote:Deal has been struck. Tesla will build a factory in China.

http://fortune.com/2017/10/22/tesla-car ... hai-china/


Good luck with that.

The Chinese have s long history of stealing the tech secrets of every western company from every country they partner with.

IMHO we’ll now see a 100% Chinese Tesla killer based on 100% stolen Tesla technology come on the market a few years after this JV gets underway

Cheeers!

My reading of the story is that it is not a joint venture but a Tesla fully owned operation just so they can keep trade secrets secret. They will pay a 25% import duty as the cost of going it alone. Perhaps it has not occurred to them that every single local worker in the plant will be a potential spy for the Chinese government.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 24 Oct 2017, 10:36:48

vtsnowedin wrote:Perhaps it has not occurred to them that every single local worker in the plant will be a potential spy for the Chinese government.


Perhaps it has and Tesla doesn't care.

https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-our-pate ... belong-you

They just don't follow conventional business strategy. Whether you think that's a good idea or not, that's how they think and they're pretty consistent about it.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 24 Oct 2017, 10:44:20

asg70 wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:Perhaps it has not occurred to them that every single local worker in the plant will be a potential spy for the Chinese government.


Perhaps it has and Tesla doesn't care.

https://www.tesla.com/blog/all-our-pate ... belong-you

They just don't follow conventional business strategy. Whether you think that's a good idea or not, that's how they think and they're pretty consistent about it.

That sounds like somebody bidding for a Nobel prize. :)
Of course the Chinese have already bought a model two and torn it apart to reverse engineer all it's secrets so that horse is out of the barn.
They will still have spies in the factory to keep up with production methods and innovations as they occur.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 24 Oct 2017, 14:59:07

vtsnowedin wrote: My reading of the story is that it is not a joint venture but a Tesla fully owned operation just so they can keep trade secrets secret. They will pay a 25% import duty as the cost of going it alone. Perhaps it has not occurred to them that every single local worker in the plant will be a potential spy for the Chinese government.

Since within 5 years, supposedly everybody and their bother (as far as auto manufacturers) will be producing between one and many EV models -- so what?

What are they going to steal? That EV's are viable? That Tesla's are shiny?

The Chinese will steal and copy what they can. So Musk may as well go ahead and get all the volume he can from the Chinese market, and help Tesla reach a cash flow positive business state sooner rather than later.

Whether Tesla is going to be successful or bankrupt in the next 5 (or even 15) years has far more to do with their manufacturing and service execution and handling their many suppliers wisely than whatever ideas China can steal from Tesla having a plant in China, IMO.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 24 Oct 2017, 19:37:01

Outcast_Searcher wrote:What are they going to steal? That EV's are viable? That Tesla's are shiny?


The question or questions about just how to make a successful EV is much more valuable then the obvious question of them being desirable or shiny.
I suspect that Tesla has not yet found all the answers needed to make a go of it and keeping the competition in the dark for a year or two may make the difference between surviving and bankruptcy.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 24 Oct 2017, 23:57:41

You seem to be ignoring that they have been giving their patents away. Not exactly a model for keeping the competition in the dark.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 25 Oct 2017, 01:27:44

vtsnowedin wrote:I suspect that Tesla has not yet found all the answers needed to make a go of it


Other than special ingredients in the battery chemistry, the secret sauce is really in the automation software, as AI is hard. If I were Tesla I would be a little protective over that. Even there, then, Musk started that open AI think tank.

https://openai.com/about/

Tesla's approach is chock full of risk but they are ignorant of few if any of them.

I can't stand the blank dashboard on the 3, for instance. They can't afford to polarize the consumer with unorthodox styling choices like that. But that's Musk's top-down decision as he thinks he knows ergonomics better than the consumer. That sort of hubris is their biggest risk, IMHO.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 26 Oct 2017, 08:30:03

Oh, and about that Nobel prize...

http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/ ... uerto-rico

Keep bashin', folks. Anyone who props up suburbia must be the devil incarnate, right?
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby GASMON » Thu 26 Oct 2017, 13:04:32

Tesla BOS

Bottom of survey or Bag of Shit - take your pick

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars ... anese.html

http://www.guideautoweb.com/en/articles ... rts'-list/

https://www.consumerreports.org/car-rel ... able-cars/

Doubt I (age 65) will ever venture to buy an electric car of any make. Reason - too expensive, range, insurance cost, depreciation, etc etc

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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 26 Oct 2017, 13:31:15

asg70 wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:I suspect that Tesla has not yet found all the answers needed to make a go of it


Other than special ingredients in the battery chemistry, the secret sauce is really in the automation software, as AI is hard. If I were Tesla I would be a little protective over that. Even there, then, Musk started that open AI think tank.

https://openai.com/about/

Tesla's approach is chock full of risk but they are ignorant of few if any of them.

I can't stand the blank dashboard on the 3, for instance. They can't afford to polarize the consumer with unorthodox styling choices like that. But that's Musk's top-down decision as he thinks he knows ergonomics better than the consumer. That sort of hubris is their biggest risk, IMHO.

Yeah, polarizing is right. I would think that offering that as an OPTION would be one thing, but forcing it on the customer seems chancy. Especially given how hazardous trying to do most anything on that big touch screen while driving is likely to be. It seems like it will be forcing distracted driving on steroids.

And I know, Tesla fanbois will say it doesn't matter since all Teslas will be fully automated in 2019 or some such nonsense. I'll believe MOST of them will be fully autonomous 5 years after I see full autonomy fully working successfully for a few years, to provide a meaningful safety/reliability/customer satisfaction data set.

Oh, and FULL autonomy doesn't mean just handling most highway driving. It means the car doesn't even need a steering wheel -- ever.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 26 Oct 2017, 17:07:45

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Oh, and FULL autonomy doesn't mean just handling most highway driving. It means the car doesn't even need a steering wheel -- ever.

I don't care how good and reliable they get I will never risk riding in a car that doesn't have a steering wheel and a full set of the other controls (brakes throttle etc. ) so when the computer can't figure out a Vermont road in mud season or some enemy of the US hacks our computer cloud and parks all our cars I can hit the override switch and drive home just like always.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 02:25:53

vtsnowedin wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:Oh, and FULL autonomy doesn't mean just handling most highway driving. It means the car doesn't even need a steering wheel -- ever.

I don't care how good and reliable they get I will never risk riding in a car that doesn't have a steering wheel and a full set of the other controls (brakes throttle etc. ) so when the computer can't figure out a Vermont road in mud season or some enemy of the US hacks our computer cloud and parks all our cars I can hit the override switch and drive home just like always.

I understand the desire for that, but I'm not at all sure you'll have that choice.

First, from what I've read, much of the field is planning to go to full autonomy and not have the semi-autonomy stage, where the customer can take control. There is concern about liability, consumer confusion, image, etc.

Things like overall safety numbers, lower insurance cost (if no human drivers are allowed on public roads) could mean that steering wheels and brakes/accelerators/clutches that humans can access will be banned.

For example:

https://www.theverge.com/2017/10/11/164 ... egulations
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 03:25:56

I think Elon Musks idea that Puerto Rico should switch to solar roofs, Powerwalls, and other Tesla technology to rebuild their infrastructure to be unrealistic.

Musk doesn’t seem to realize that Puerto Rico is bankrupt and owes its creditors tens of billions of dollars. They don’t have the money to install very expensive Tesla power systems. They’ll be lucky to reproduce the cheap cruddy inefficient grid they had before

Cheers!

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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 08:03:21

Plantagenet wrote:I think Elon Musks idea that Puerto Rico should switch to solar roofs, Powerwalls, and other Tesla technology to rebuild their infrastructure to be unrealistic.

Musk doesn’t seem to realize that Puerto Rico is bankrupt and owes its creditors tens of billions of dollars. They don’t have the money to install very expensive Tesla power systems. They’ll be lucky to reproduce the cheap cruddy inefficient grid they had before

Cheers!

Are the hospitals bankrupt? The hotels and casinos?
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 08:28:25

Plantagenet wrote:Musk doesn’t seem to realize that Puerto Rico is bankrupt


Musk has a habit of spending his company's money first and figuring out how to make back the overhead later. In the case of rushing down to PR and installing these systems not knowing who or how they'll get paid for, at least that has a direct positive benefit.

PR is going to be a charity case for the foreseeable future. That's all you can say about them.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 09:22:42

vtsnowedin wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:Musk doesn’t seem to realize that Puerto Rico is bankrupt

Are the hospitals bankrupt? The hotels and casinos?


Yes, those hospitals operated by or funded by PR are effectively bankrupt.

And tourist hotels and casinos are highly likely to go bankrupt soon. How many tourists do you imagine are planning to take their vacations in PR right now??????

Cheers!

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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 10:43:11

Plantagenet wrote:I think Elon Musks idea that Puerto Rico should switch to solar roofs, Powerwalls, and other Tesla technology to rebuild their infrastructure to be unrealistic.

Musk doesn’t seem to realize that Puerto Rico is bankrupt and owes its creditors tens of billions of dollars. They don’t have the money to install very expensive Tesla power systems. They’ll be lucky to reproduce the cheap cruddy inefficient grid they had before

Cheers!

First, I absolutely agree that Puerto Rico is a complete financial disaster. They were bankrupt as of July 2016, and showing NO real inclination or ability to pay their $73ish Billion in bond debt. Post the storms, it's only that much worse, which has caused a rapid and large fall-off in the price of those bonds overall -- reflecting the lack of confidence in even partial eventual repayment. (Predictably, some hedge funds with large positions in those bonds who were expecting lawyers and Beltway favors to make them lots of money on those positions are doing some significant public griping about the debt now).

Musk isn't stupid. He's all about PR (public relations -- i.e. marketing.)

This is primarily a MARKETING opportunity for Tesla to show off what their battery systems can do. It also shows they are "good guys" with the primarily green segment that very much tend to be the fanbois and early adopters of their cars -- and Musk needs to patiently wait for their 400,000+ Model 3 orders to be filled.

So I think this is just Musk investing "X" in public relations. If over time, the US makes Tesla whole or partially whole, by bailing out Puerto Rico, or paying Tesla (something) for its efforts, that just reduces the cost of "X". If not, Musk intends to make it up over time as people buy more and more expensive Tesla solar roofs, backed up by expensive Tesla Powerwall battery systems.

It's not a bad plan. After all, Tesla is now living on investor money (as Tesla issues more stock and debt repeatedly to manage its cash needs) -- Musk will be wildly rich whether Tesla ultimately succeeds or not.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby EdwinSm » Thu 02 Nov 2017, 00:49:20

Things are not looking good :( 8O

Tesla delays Model 3 production in its worst quarter
BBC wrote:Electric carmaker Tesla pushed back targets for its new Model 3 car, admitting it's months behind schedule.

Tesla said it would now produce 5,000 of the cars each week by early 2018, instead of December.

The new target emerged as Tesla posted its biggest quarterly loss ever, sending its shares down more than 5% in after-hours trading.

Tesla made net losses of $619m (£468m) in the three months to 30 September, nearly double the previous quarter.......

Tesla said it had produced just 260 of the Model 3 cars in the third quarter, less than a fifth of the 1,500 vehicles it had planned to build.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41839826
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