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Making Tesla pt. 2

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 14:57:59

All new technology advances from early primitive versions to mature stable and more elegant forms. In many cases, the need for that tech is no longer apparent when the design reaches the elegant stage. Look around in museums at some of the most elegant horse-drawn carriages that were ever built, or the gleaming brass and mahogany steam engines and boilers of the 19th century. Beautiful and obsolete.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 15:32:43

Yes KJ microprocessor technology today is mature stable and very elegant. If a10-year old Core 2 Duo machine can handle today's software. What does that tell us? Perhaps software has nowhere to go? Or hardware has gone too far?
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 15:58:55

KaiserJeep wrote:All new technology advances from early primitive versions to mature stable and more elegant forms. In many cases, the need for that tech is no longer apparent when the design reaches the elegant stage. Look around in museums at some of the most elegant horse-drawn carriages that were ever built, or the gleaming brass and mahogany steam engines and boilers of the 19th century. Beautiful and obsolete.


Not necessarily. I would say household appliances are an example of technology that stopped evolving in any meaningful sense. Instead, we get shorter lifespans and planned obsolescence. While styling has changed, I don't see things like dishwashers being as good, or much more efficient, than they were a few decades ago. I certainly don't need the hassles and security risks of 'connected' appliances.

What I see a lot of is diminishing returns.

As for computers, most of the advancements I've seen in main boards is integration; all subsystems on the main board and SOC implementation. Some manufacturers have improved reliability. I use the tiny mITX format boards because they are small, sip power, and don't produce much heat. I don't need a lot of speed to support my weather stations and solar. I need 24/7/365 reliability for years, and a board that will gladly run XP and RS-232 (serial) communications. Gigabyte makes a line of inexpensive boards marketed as "Ultra-durable" with better heat dissipation and quality solid Japanese capacitors. I've had great luck with those. No fan needed and a 120 watt mini PICO power supply (9-32 volt DC input) will run the PC fine. 8GB memory and a good SSD and they're even pretty snappy, speed wise.

The Linux system I'm on now runs off of a few solar/battery watts and will decode/recode a blue-ray disk quite quickly (I've been ripping all of our DVDs and blue-ray disks to the big network drive).
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 17:06:51

Yes, GHung, I used to rip disks to hard drive as well. I stopped when I gained instant streaming access to far more movies, TV, and documentaries than I could ever find time to watch. That activity is obsolete, just as the PC itself is going obsolete - replaced by mobile devices that cost less and have software applications that more closely match human lifestyles in the 21st century.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 17:17:32

KaiserJeep wrote:Yes, GHung, I used to rip disks to hard drive as well. I stopped when I gained instant streaming access to far more movies, TV, and documentaries than I could ever find time to watch. That activity is obsolete, just as the PC itself is going obsolete - replaced by mobile devices that cost less and have software applications that more closely match human lifestyles in the 21st century.


Meh,, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, and all that. And not everybody has reliable high-speed broadband suitable for streaming high-resolution content. And when all of your complexity implodes, I'll have well over 1000 titles to keep the clan settled on those cold winter nights 8O I guess I'm obsolete, at least until I'm not, and I don't want an expensive data plan on a device I have to squint at. If I want/need to go mobile, I have a nice 10" tablet, an OTG cable, plenty of thumb drives, and a 30 watt PV panel to run it all..

BTW: I haven't disposed of my extensive library of books either (remember those?).

Some of us have an independent nature. You can have your connected 21st century lifestyle, living in some cloud.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 17:46:44

GHung wrote:
KaiserJeep wrote:Yes, GHung, I used to rip disks to hard drive as well. I stopped when I gained instant streaming access to far more movies, TV, and documentaries than I could ever find time to watch. That activity is obsolete, just as the PC itself is going obsolete - replaced by mobile devices that cost less and have software applications that more closely match human lifestyles in the 21st century.


Meh,, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush, and all that. And not everybody has reliable high-speed broadband suitable for streaming high-resolution content. And when all of your complexity implodes, I'll have well over 1000 titles to keep the clan settled on those cold winter nights 8O I guess I'm obsolete, at least until I'm not, and I don't want an expensive data plan on a device I have to squint at. If I want/need to go mobile, I have a nice 10" tablet, an OTG cable, plenty of thumb drives, and a 30 watt PV panel to run it all..

BTW: I haven't disposed of my extensive library of books either (remember those?).

Some of us have an independent nature. You can have your connected 21st century lifestyle, living in some cloud.

And that's what's nice about having choice. I don't want to squint at a tiny screen either. And until there are really sufficient truly "killer" apps to justify it AND far better security, I can certainly live without a smart phone, even if I could see like I could 30 years ago.

Oh, and I like not having to worry about streamers removing the content I want to watch or raise the prices, or embedding annoying commercials, etc. So I'm with you on ripping disks -- at least for really good stuff.

And note that energy isn't the issue for the choices for anyone in the first world. Such things will tend to move toward using less, despite the cries about how capitalism is destroying the world, etc.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 18:12:23

"So I'm with you on ripping disks -- at least for really good stuff.

I have to admit I'm a collector, and a bit addicted to acquiring movies. I even have different additions of movies. I have Blade Runner, the original theatrical version with the studio's happy ending and the latest director's cut with the original Ridley Scott ending. Two versions of The Day The Earth Stood Still, three King Kongs, several Godzillas.....

Walmart has a $3.73 DVD bin that often has multiple old movies in one case. I recently got The Battle of the Bulge, Midway, Dirty Dozen, and Where Eagles Dare,, all for less than $4. Many classic movie collections for $5, some with as many as 8 movies (old Hepburn, Bogart, etc.). My son bought all 7 seasons of Game Of Thrones so we ripped those (about 70 episodes on blue-ray took a while). I can get a 30 GB blue-ray file down to about 5-6 GB while preserving full quality. Most disks get used once for the rip then put away so the grandkids don't get peanut butter and snot on them.

Online streaming is for pussies.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 18:40:36

What tiny screen? I have an (already obsolete) Barnes and Noble "Nook" HD+ E-Reader that streams NetFlix just fine. The screen is only 9.6" but I bought the optional HDMI adapter that allows it to output 1920X1080@60 frames per second, plus stereo audio, to the HDTV. The wife and I used it to access our California TiVo DVRs in Massachutsetts at the in-laws house, and at both places we have only a basic ISDN minimum cost network connection over a voice quality telephone line. The in-laws had Walmart quality HDTVs that lacked any streaming support, connected to a cable box without DVR capability. We also streamed some new movies from Netflix using the "Nook" tablet - the HDMI adapter option cost me $29 some 7 years ago, this is not bleeding edge stuff.

If you think you have a network limitation, it probably means that you have out of date hardware, or out of date codex software for whatever application you are using. I'd suggest updating your smart TV firmware, or your BluRay player firmware, or whatever device you use to stream video. My "new" Vizio HDTV from early 2015 streams 4K UHD (3840X2160@60fps) over the minimum bandwidth ISDN line just fine. Updating is easy if you direct connect the device to your router via cable, or fetch the code to the device from your PC via a thumb drive. Long term, the newer devices like the Roku can be left plugged in to a network connection and will manage their own firmware.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 19:04:37

I'm not ready to jump in yet. I'll stick with my tapes, thank you. :-x

They promised me 3D and Virtual Reality. I am not stupid, and won't get sucked into that halfway house again. I waited for color TV but they promised me Smell-o-Vision :-x

They just want you to spend all your money now, and then just when you finally have it paid off, they tell you they have the next model. And you have to get rid of the last one.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 19:25:04

KJ said; If you think you have a network limitation, it probably means that you have out of date hardware, or out of date codex software for whatever application you are using. I'd suggest updating your smart TV firmware, or your BluRay player firmware, or whatever device you use to stream video.

My network is great. It's our internet that is the bottleneck. BTW: You aren't the only network engineer on this board. Most of my network devices are gigabit wired to a Nighthawk X-10 I'm trying out, so the house is plenty fast. File transfers between the NAS on the router and this computer are in the 40-50 MBs range; good enough for my purposes. I make/test my own cables. WIfi streams well over the whole house.

No good 3G/4G reception here. I set up a Wilson repeater that does OK for voice and texting.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 19:52:26

KaiserJeep wrote:What tiny screen?

My comment there was re smart phones. Side-scrolling games or watching movies on one of those screens? No thanks.

Although, ironically cell phones are now on the bigger and bigger screen ramp up. Just the opposite of the trend before smart phones, where the "cool" phones got so tiny you could hardly hit the buttons.

I was thinking of some kind of SNL skit where someone truly needed a giant pickup truck -- to lug around their new bigger better smart phone, the way things are going. LOL

For me I just hit a wall on wanting to fiddle with, much less needing all the newer better stuff. I'd happily upgraded PC's until the bug loaded Vista came out, as the power and OS features were helpful). However, Blue Ray? Nope. Windows later than 7? Nope. HD TV and all the 4K, 1080, etc. flavors of that? Nope. (I just use a standard inexpensive flat screen monitor that seems to show what I want up to 1366x768 with the standard Radeon drivers, which is plenty for me.) Smart phones and all that overpriced Apple stuff? Nope (except for one IPOD Touch 4, to learn the interface and Apple ecosystem a bit. When I found I couldn't answer my sister's I-phone (never having seen the IOS interface) I started feeling too far behind).

Somehow having worked with technology (and fighting to fix it) 60 to 80 hours of work my whole career, I just got saturated with all that nonsense and good enough became just fine with me.

Again -- more choices is good for consumers.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 20:45:41

GHung, I was never a network engineer. I built Tandem NonStop systems, aka fault tolerant transaction processing computers. For the last 25+ years they have run every stock and commodity exchange, every bank-by-wire system, every credit card authorization, cellphone billing, airline reservations, every single place you need continuous system availability or you lose money. They are an invisible infrastructure part of the internet, sitting quietly in a chilled room somewhere, a trusted system counting money. Every server you ever saw, every ATM, every stockbroker terminal, etc. etc. is just a front end for a NonStop computer. You interact with a NonStop system dozens of times in a typical day, and yet there are few people who even know the name.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 21:15:09

"You interact with a NonStop system dozens of times in a typical day, and yet there are few people who even know the name.

Not if I can help it. Anyway, what happens when your NonStop system stops?
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 22:16:58

The NonStop stops only when you shut it off. Many have been online for decades. Not only are they fault tolerant, they are also online repairable. When a piece of redundant hardware fails, you replace it before the backup piece fails, and every part of the system returns to redundancy.

The "seven nines" of reliability is for the availability of the system application. The actual availabiliity figure is 0.99999993 as of 2015, it may be higher now. That means that an unplanned outage of 1 minute occurs on average every 27+ years. That term of course far exceeds the life of computer hardware. There are system outages due to operator errors and due to application errors, there are none due to system failures, at least not since the first decade I worked there, before the NonStop operating system was perfected. Even back then (1978-1988) failures were so rare that a half dozen engineers would show up to do a post-mortem. No failures of the hardware or OS in the last 27 years, the reliability calculation is conservative.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 05 Oct 2017, 22:27:12

pstarr wrote:Yes KJ microprocessor technology today is mature stable and very elegant. If a10-year old Core 2 Duo machine can handle today's software. What does that tell us?


That the thread is going off-topic, basically.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 06 Oct 2017, 01:10:40

asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote:Yes KJ microprocessor technology today is mature stable and very elegant. If a10-year old Core 2 Duo machine can handle today's software. What does that tell us?


That the thread is going off-topic, basically.

Listen, the Tesla is basically an EV (with lithium batteries instead of lead acid) and so not much different than generations of the same. What makes it supposedly different (and better) is its brain, you know, the autonomous capacity to put you to sleep and at the same time, deliver you to your destination of choice.

But that is a con. The brain in the Tesla, the one that is supposed to be AUTONOMOUS is no smarter than a 10 year old Intel Duo Core blah blah blah. It's a con. And so my comment is very much on topic. Yours? Not so much

Get it now?
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby kublikhan » Fri 06 Oct 2017, 02:50:28

pstarr wrote:
asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote:Yes KJ microprocessor technology today is mature stable and very elegant. If a10-year old Core 2 Duo machine can handle today's software. What does that tell us?


That the thread is going off-topic, basically.

Listen, the Tesla is basically an EV (with lithium batteries instead of lead acid) and so not much different than generations of the same. What makes it supposedly different (and better) is its brain, you know, the autonomous capacity to put you to sleep and at the same time, deliver you to your destination of choice.

But that is a con. The brain in the Tesla, the one that is supposed to be AUTONOMOUS is no smarter than a 10 year old Intel Duo Core blah blah blah. It's a con. And so my comment is very much on topic. Yours? Not so much

Get it now?
That is incorrect. Self driving cars need much more power than a 10 year old Intel CPU. The computer in the Tesla is more powerful than 150 10 year old Intels. And even that is only powerful enough for a level 4 self driving system. You would need 2 of them for a level 5 driving system. It can do things that a 10 year old Intel could only dream of.

NVIDIA’s Drive PX 2 is the onboard supercomputer that is installed in all-new Tesla vehicles. NVIDIA describes the Drive PX 2 as “the world’s first AI supercomputer for self-driving cars”. Its computing power is comparable to about 150 MacBook Pros and the company estimates that one can support a level 4 self-driving system while two would be necessary for a fully self-driving level 5 vehicle.

Additionally, the company is reportedly working on its own custom SoC (System on Chip) especially for self-driving cars and looking at Samsung to manufacture it. The chip would likely be designed by famous chip architect Jim Keller who now leads Tesla’s Autopilot hardware team.
First picture of Tesla’s new NVIDIA onboard supercomputer for Autopilot installed in a car

Nvidia didn’t disclose the price of the Drive PX 2 platform, but it is believed to be an expensive piece of equipment. While unlikely to be representative of the price Tesla is paying for its production cars, Nvidia was selling the system to OEMs for their development programs at $15,000 per unit earlier this year.

This is a Tesla‑developed neural net. To make sense of all of this data, a new onboard computer with over 40 times the computing power of the previous generation runs the new Tesla-developed neural net for vision, sonar and radar processing software. NVIDIA DRIVE PX 2 is an end-to-end AI computing system that uses groundbreaking approaches in deep learning to perceive and understand the car’s surroundings. Our deep learning platform is open and lets carmakers first train their own deep neural networks on GPU supercomputers. Once loaded into the car, it processes the networks at high speed to provide the real-time, accurate response required for autonomous driving.
All new Teslas are equipped with NVIDIA’s new Drive PX 2 AI platform for self-driving
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby baha » Fri 06 Oct 2017, 05:20:29

Nice discussion,
It points out the fact that an EV is a totally different beast than an ICE vehicle. A Tesla is more of a rolling computer than a car. And good engineers have been making computers reliable for decades. You can engineer for reliability.

Ghungs problem with capacitors is on-point. Capacitors and transformers create strong EM fields and are trying to tear themselves apart. Every time they charge they want to expand. The capacitor can be strengthened or only used to 1/3 capacity and this lowers the stresses.

I bet Newfie knows about marine electronics? It is encased in block of epoxy and will never corrode...but tends to run hot. Add big heat sinks and problem solved.

Everyone has their hobbies and passions. For most of my life, mine has been cars and motorcycles. The truth is I missed my calling when I let the world push me into computers and IT. I did computers and networks and made money and never had any passion for it. I did enjoy fiber optics which is the area my patents are in. But the systems involved are very specific to the military and isn't used by the private sector.

I have always loved cars and I can make an IC engine purr. I've enjoyed tinkering and getting the most efficiency and HP I can get. But I've always known electric motors are far superior. I tried to build an electric motorcycle once with junk parts. I welded a sprocket to a small starter motor and mounted it in an old frame. Thru in a deep cycle battery and took off :)

I used the starter switch on the handlebars to operate a relay. It was on or off. The wires weren't big enough and after about 30 seconds the insulation melted and two wires welded to each other and then it was just ON...Luckily the brakes were stronger than the motor :) and I was able to turn around, go home, lay it on the ground with the wheel spinning madly, and cut the wire. Just think...if the motor had been bigger I could have gotten a Darwin award.

That was enough for me...I took a ride on the BMW instead.

This is why I will build an electric VW...an EVW :) I don't want Mega-processors eating my power and trying to keep me in my lane. I want all the power to the wheels and the ability to jump the ditch anytime I want :) It won't be long before I will be socially unacceptable for driving my own car. It's OK I'm used to it.

But once again I will take two diverse parts of my life and experience and combine them, with passion, into something new and different. You and the govt and Tesla can go you're way, and I'll go mine :)
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 06 Oct 2017, 09:52:13

One mistake. The battery management circuitry and hardware on a Tesla greatly increases vehicle range and battery life, while reducing the chances that an explosion or meltdown will occur. You have only to look at the Samsung Note 7 or the Florida airliner that suffered in-flight fire from a Lithium battery to understand why a Tesla has battery management hardware and software.

If you don't want to accept that, you can always remove all that "mega-processing" from your Powerwall and manage the Lithium battery with a $50 charger from the auto parts store. But I wouldn't.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby GHung » Fri 06 Oct 2017, 10:20:01

Can Elon Musk fix Puerto Rico's broken power grid?

Elon Musk is offering to solve Puerto Rico's energy crisis -- for the long haul....

.....Musk, the CEO of electric-car maker Tesla (TSLA), suggested his company's solar power unit could be a long-term solution.

"The Tesla team has done this for many smaller islands around the world, but there is no scalability limit, so it can be done for Puerto Rico," Musk tweeted Thursday morning, adding that the decision is up to Puerto Rican government officials....
http://money.cnn.com/2017/10/05/news/ec ... index.html


Inter-connected micro/mini grids more resilient than the current massive grids we (you) have now?
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