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Making Tesla pt. 2

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 16 Sep 2017, 12:50:46

pstarr wrote:EV's have been on the road for decades and continue to lag. There are few if any charging stations in most states. Yet there now exists 3 million gas station filling hoses (at 150,000 gas stations). 100's of million gas/diesel fill-up each day. Each gas/diesel fillup takes a 5 or 10 minutes. A EV fillup takes 4-8 hours (at 240v) You do the math. The infrastructure adoption is completely untenable. Forgetaboutit lol

For the umpteenth time, your FUD is meaningless.

1). There are many millions of places where 204v and overnight charging is just fine.

2). Inductive charging is another option, where plugging in is a problem.

3). The 150,000 gas stations is a great point. As EV's proliferate over the coming decades and gasoline demand wanes, this will be a natural place to see high speed EV charging bays appear. Obviously regulation will need to ensure this is done safely. Perhaps we'll see stations with gas pumps on one side and charging bays on the other, during the transition. But the real estate, at convenient locations, geared to parking cars and powering up, is clearly already there.

4). Just because high speed charing takes more like 30+ minutes, currently, doesn't make it untenable. People only need a lot of charge when they're traveling long distance.

5). As batteries and battery chemistry improves, faster charging times are almost certain. After all, there will be money in that if the demand is there.

...

But let's pretend NONE of that is true so you can hang onto your cherished beliefs -- no matter what is happening in the real world, and no matter what the obvious trends are.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 16 Sep 2017, 13:23:52

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
pstarr wrote:EV's have been on the road for decades and continue to lag. There are few if any charging stations in most states. Yet there now exists 3 million gas station filling hoses (at 150,000 gas stations). 100's of million gas/diesel fill-up each day. Each gas/diesel fillup takes a 5 or 10 minutes. A EV fillup takes 4-8 hours (at 240v) You do the math. The infrastructure adoption is completely untenable. Forgetaboutit lol

For the umpteenth time, your FUD is meaningless.
Fear, uncertainty an doubt: I have none of those. I do not fear peak oil, overshoot and dieoff. I am quite certain that high-tech toys are no substitute for an abundant earth. Which we have squandered and over populated. Those are the facts. With certainty.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:1). There are many millions of places where 204v and overnight charging is just fine.
Not true.
    16,269 electric stations
    44,517 charging outlets
Alternative Fuels Data Center

Outcast_Searcher wrote:2). Inductive charging is another option, where plugging in is a problem.
cars are not iphones. There is no proof of concept, cost or safety analysis. If plug-in in is a problem, then inductive charging is ten times the problem.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:3). The 150,000 gas stations is a great point. As EV's proliferate over the coming decades and gasoline demand wanes, this will be a natural place to see high speed EV charging bays appear. Obviously regulation will need to ensure this is done safely. Perhaps we'll see stations with gas pumps on one side and charging bays on the other, during the transition. But the real estate, at convenient locations, geared to parking cars and powering up, is clearly already there.
Yes it is a great point.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:4). Just because high speed charing takes more like 30+ minutes, currently, doesn't make it untenable. People only need a lot of charge when they're traveling long distance.
Does make it untentable . . . for 99% of drivers. All people drive long distances occasionally, and certainly don't have the luxary of a second long-distance ICE

Outcast_Searcher wrote:5). As batteries and battery chemistry improves, faster charging times are almost certain. After all, there will be money in that if the demand is there.
While the theoretical lithium density maximum is a bit better (6.7% of gasoline, rather than 2%) there are no game-changing improvements in the real-world pipeline. Musk and others have committed vast resources to lithium. I don't a replacement anytime soon.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:...

But let's pretend NONE of that is true so you can hang onto your cherished beliefs -- no matter what is happening in the real world, and no matter what the obvious trends are.

No belief. Common sense, a bit of technological familiarity and radar for techie BS.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 16 Sep 2017, 13:51:28

pstarr wrote:All people drive long distances occasionally


That's what the Superchargers are there for, that and to service apartment-dwellers.

pstarr wrote:there are no game-changing improvements in the real-world pipeline.


None are required. Batteries do not need to reach parity with gasoline in energy density. This is setting the goalposts unreasonably high.

pstarr wrote:No belief. Common sense, a bit of technological familiarity and radar for techie BS.


It's nothing but a prediction, nothing more nothing less. If that prediction turns out false, what then will you think of your common sense?
Hubbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 16 Sep 2017, 16:44:29

asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote:All people drive long distances occasionally


That's what the Superchargers are there for, that and to service apartment-dwellers.

Superchargers are not 'there', only useful if actually installed. Superchargers are pitifully rare, none in Alaska, and many many other Great States in our wondrous union.

Superchargers require a ~480 volt, ~250 amp connection from the grid, something no normal house would have available. Likewise it exists in no residential apartment I know of, certainly not in the indoor garage. It would cost $50k or so to have a transformer installed. (if local zoning even allowed it).

asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote:there are no game-changing improvements in the real-world pipeline.


None are required. Batteries do not need to reach parity with gasoline in energy density. This is setting the goalposts unreasonably high.
Why shouldn't the EV goalpost be set as high as the current ICE model? Good intentions do not suffice make in a capitalist economy.

Now asg70, I am going to put you back on ignore. I penned the above for the community, not you. I need this community, one of the few that considers the truth I find obvious.

You read nothing, facts mean nothing. You are an arrogant, superficial, unloved troll. Bye bye
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 16 Sep 2017, 17:01:56

pstarr wrote:Superchargers are not 'there', only useful if actually installed.


Are you blind?

Are you going to keep insisting Superchargers don't exist until Musk comes and rams one up your ass?

pstarr wrote:Superchargers require a ~480 volt, ~250 amp connection from the grid, something no normal house would have available.


Houses don't need that kind of juice because you park your car there overnight.

"Common sense", ya know?

pstarr wrote:Good intentions do not suffice make in a capitalist economy.


Yep. For capitalist results, may I point you to 400K+ Model 3 reservists voting with their wallets?

How about VW having its "oh shit" moment and committing tens of billions of dollars? That kind of money doesn't start to move in pursuit of something that's not a verifiable thing.

pstarr wrote:You read nothing, facts mean nothing


Yeah, like your false assertion that Superchargers somehow don't exist because you can still search around for somewhere on the map they haven't reached yet. You're nothing but a doomer propagandist and not a very good one at that.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby kublikhan » Sat 16 Sep 2017, 17:57:02

pstarr wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:1). There are many millions of places where 204v and overnight charging is just fine.
Not true.
16,269 electric stations
44,517 charging outlets
He's talking about charging from home. Which is what most people do:

81% percent of electric vehicle charging occurs at home
10% of charging occurs at public charging station
7% of charging takes place at work
81% of Electric Vehicle Charging is Done at Home

pstarr wrote:Superchargers require a ~480 volt, ~250 amp connection from the grid, something no normal house would have available. Likewise it exists in no residential apartment I know of, certainly not in the indoor garage. It would cost $50k or so to have a transformer installed. (if local zoning even allowed it).
Superchargers are not meant for home use. In fact you should not use superchargers at home. An occasional supercharge for a long trip is no problem. However if you did this every single day it would curtail your battery life. That's why if you supercharge at home every night eventually you will hit a point where the car will automatically throttle down the charge speed to a standard charge rate anyway, thus negating the entire benefit of the supercharger. Superchargers are meant for that quick charge on the road for a long trip.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby baha » Fri 22 Sep 2017, 08:01:39

This is cool...

Tesla is developing software that allows distributed Powerwalls to support the grid. This represents the lack of vision Duke Power has. Just like distributed computing, this is distributed power management. Those areas with high demand can draw from local Powerwalls and not burden the stupid central coal fired plant.

https://electrek.co/2017/05/12/tesla-ne ... powerpack/

The utility is providing Powerwalls at reduced cost that stabilize the grid and provide backup power for the individual.

Here is the future, get over it :)
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The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby baha » Fri 22 Sep 2017, 08:21:42

Yesterday I installed my second Tesla EV charger. The first was only a 50 amp so I didn't think it was a big deal. Here's a pic.

IMG_0806.jpg
Tesla Charger in someone's garage
IMG_0806.jpg (74.06 KiB) Viewed 1327 times


The second was a 90 amp charger! That is 21,600 watts of charge! That will charge a Model S P100d from dead in about 5 hours. This dude is way spoiled...There was a baby-blue Porsche in the 3-car garage for the misses.

It's the same charger, I didn't realize there was a rotary switch in the charger that sets it's source amperage. I can use that to slow the charge to match my average PV output.

We have been having this issue. People want to charge their Tesla from solar alone. The Powerwall can do that, why can't the car? We have brought this to Tesla's attention and they are working on it. Software control of the charger output...
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 22 Sep 2017, 11:52:45

Bloomberg, September 13th 2017

"WASHINGTON (AP) — Design limitations of the Tesla Model S's Autopilot played a major role in the first known fatal crash of a highway vehicle operating under automated control systems, the National Transportation Safety Board said Tuesday."

The National Transportation Safety Board, in its first probe of autonomous driving technologies, recommended Tuesday that systems such as Tesla’s Autopilot be unavailable when the vehicle is traveling on a road where its use is inappropriate.

The accident occurred on a divided road with occasional intersections and the company had warned owners not to use Autopilot in those conditions. :? :mrgreen: In spite of those warnings, the car’s software allowed drivers to go as fast as 90 miles an hour under automated steering, the NTSB found.

WARNING: ONLY CERTIFIED FOR THE DRIVEWAY! :-x

Tesla's autonomous vehicle technology 'CON JOB' (Computer Only Navigation Joint Operating Bus) is not ready for the real world.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby baha » Fri 22 Sep 2017, 15:52:35

This is a real interesting news report from an EV fan. She isn't a Tesla fangyrl but she is clearly sold on the future of EVs.

This one news report from April 2017 addresses lots of the things I read about on this site. I think Porsche has a real chance to compete with Tesla using VWs charging network. They know how to build cars :)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9GzOa497TZI

Sure it is slanted toward an electric agenda, but this is happening now around us.
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 23 Sep 2017, 10:13:01

"She" (quote unquote is really appropriate in that case) has been into EVs for ages. If you go through youtube you'll probably find an old clip where she's tooling around in an old electric trike/quadricycle of the sort Revi thinks we should be happy driving. This was back in the bronze age before the Volt or Model S. So she really shouldn't be held up as the poster-child of mainstream adoption. Just an early-adopter evangelist ala Chelsea Sexton from Who Killed the Electric Car.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby toolpush » Wed 27 Sep 2017, 01:46:52

Some of Tesla's features may not really be features at all, unless fast door removal is considered a feature.

http://www.9news.com.au/national/2017/0 ... d-by-truck

Tesla hits back after $200,000 supercar destroyed by truck

Car manufacturer Tesla has hit back at claims its “safest SUV in history” has a fault after a $200,000 supercar was destroyed by a truck.

Shocking footage obtained by 9NEWS shows the moment the door of the Tesla Model X supercar was all but ripped off when it opened automatically on a major Sydney road.

Sam Kovac, the car’s owner, told 9NEWS the doors opened automatically on the Princes Highway, sending debris flying and causing “carnage”.

Mr Kovac claims he was meters away when it happened without notice.


He may or not have been playing with his keys, but it seems he should have been out of range even if he was. Just goes to highlight the learning curve involved from both the consumer and the manufacturer with new technologies.

They always say to make things fool proof, but those fools are really smart as they out think designers all the time.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 27 Sep 2017, 21:13:32

Tesla tax credits are going to start to be phased out next year. This could have an effect on Tesla sales, especially for the low end model 3 where federal + state credits make up a good chunk of the car's price:

One of the financial benefits long afforded to EV buyers is that they can take advantage of a generous $7,500 federal income tax credit, a perk that Tesla owners have enjoyed for quite some time. An important caveat to the aforementioned tax credit is that it expires one quarter after a specific car manufacturer sells and delivers 200,000 EVs in the United States. Once that 200,000 threshold is met, the federal income tax credit for that manufacturer falls to $3,750 for a period of six months followed by a tax credit of $1,875 for the following six months.

That being the case, many Model 3 buyers hoping to enjoy the full $7,500 federal income tax credit will be out of luck. While it was initially assumed that Tesla would reach the 200,000 threshold sometime in 2018, Electrek reports that Tesla may hit the threshold before the end of the year. In fact, Tesla is even using this tidbit to help sell prospective buyers on the Model S since new orders will be fulfilled much faster than on the Model 3.
We have received several reports of Tesla salespeople from different Tesla stores in the US telling Model 3 reservation holders that they might not get access to the $7,500 federal tax credit if they don’t get their Model 3 delivery by the end of the year.

The larger takeaway here is that the federal incentive to purchase a Tesla won’t be around for much longer. If we assume that Tesla hits the 200,000 units sold threshold in early 2018, the available pool of subsidy money will run dry by mid-2019.
The $7,500 federal tax credit for Tesla buyers may expire sooner than you think

Given Tesla’s ambitious US sales forecast for its Model 3, it will hit the 200,000 vehicle limit in 2018, after which the phase-out begins. A year later, the subsidies are gone. Losing a $7,500 subsidy on a $35,000 car is a huge deal. No other EV manufacturer is anywhere near their 200,000 limit. Their customers are going to benefit from the subsidy; Tesla buyers won’t.

This could crush Tesla sales. Many car buyers are sensitive to these subsidies. For example, after Hong Kong rescinded a tax break for EVs effective in April, Tesla sales in April dropped to zero(New registrations of company’s vehicles dropped to zero from 2,939). The good people of Hong Kong will likely start buying Teslas again, but it shows that subsidies have a devastating impact when they’re pulled.


Meanwhile California's rebate program is in limbo. Note that half of all EV sales in the US are in California, so this is a big deal as well:

California $1,500 / $2,500 rebates in limbo: Because California leads the U.S. in EV sales, rebates there tend to have a disproportionate impact on EV buyers(More than 250,000 plug-in EVs have been sold in California which represents about 50% of sales across the U.S). And the rebates that California had been offering are on hold, as the Clean Vehicle Rebate Project (CVRP) page explains.

As of June 30, 2017, only qualified lower-income applicants...will receive rebates...All other applicants will be placed on a rebate waitlist. Qualified applicants on the rebate waitlist will receive payment if the project receives more funding from the State of California.
Tesla Tax Credits In Doubt

Instead of dishing out more cash, whoever was in charge of negotiating and drafting the final legislation got something else inserted — a requirement that the California Air Resources Board examine “the best ways to write and implement EV rebate legislation,” as the Los Angeles Times puts it. If that doesn’t have you depressed enough, note that the deadline for such reports is September 1, 2019.
California Bill Drops $3 Billion EV Rebate Plan & Switches To Studies
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 27 Sep 2017, 22:07:18

kublikhan wrote:...Given Tesla’s ambitious US sales forecast for its Model 3, it will hit the 200,000 vehicle limit in 2018, after which the phase-out begins. A year later, the subsidies are gone. Losing a $7,500 subsidy on a $35,000 car is a huge deal. No other EV manufacturer is anywhere near their 200,000 limit. Their customers are going to benefit from the subsidy; Tesla buyers won’t.

This could crush Tesla sales. Many car buyers are sensitive to these subsidies. For example, after Hong Kong rescinded a tax break for EVs effective in April, Tesla sales in April ...dropped to zero..... subsidies have a devastating impact when they’re pulled.


If other companies make a good EV, then Tesla will have some competition. The subsidy will help Tesla's competitors---but they still have to build a good EV or people won't buy it.

This is a good thing---competition keeps innovation going.

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Tesla versus BMW----may the best EV win!

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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby tita » Thu 28 Sep 2017, 04:40:07

This could crush Tesla sales. Many car buyers are sensitive to these subsidies. For example, after Hong Kong rescinded a tax break for EVs effective in April, Tesla sales in April dropped to zero(New registrations of company’s vehicles dropped to zero from 2,939). The good people of Hong Kong will likely start buying Teslas again, but it shows that subsidies have a devastating impact when they’re pulled.

Last july, Tesla made 2/3rd of all BEV registrations in Hong Kong. Yeah, the sold 2 cars while BMW sold one. Anyway, the march number (2'939) was clearly strange, related to the phase out of subsidies, but also with someone a lot of cars at once.

There is some noise about this video, presenting the first delivery of model 3 in Texas:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3AgutFBgRMY

Among other things, it seems the ramp up is quite slow (250th model 3), and it appears that there is still some big issues that need to be resolved. The wipers control feels just ridiculous... Anyway, it seems to confirm that the model 3 was not ready to be launched... in the way other carmakers do. Of course, this is Tesla, so no surprise.

Anyway, the model 3 is crucial for Tesla... And most of the challenges are ahead. Despite the high number of reservations, this have to be translated into sales. The production is aimed to be higher than Model S or X combined, and more automated. In short, this is the real entrance to the car market as major carmakers do, with all the problems that goes along. Tesla will be scrutinized in the next 6 months. It it extremely risky, because all eggs are in the same basket. If, for whatever reason, they can't do a successfull launch, no narrative will save the day.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 30 Sep 2017, 15:24:07

kublikhan wrote:Tesla tax credits are going to start to be phased out next year. This could have an effect on Tesla sales, especially for the low end model 3 where federal + state credits make up a good chunk of the car's price:

It could, and I think it will, to some extent, at least in the short term.

However, I think it's far from a deal breaker for Tesla.

First, at least currently, the Model 3 isn't really a $35,000 car. That's just the "teaser" price. To get the options that a huge proportion of people are going to want, it's more like a $50,000 car. Like the big battery, or the package with the nice glass roof, the color you want, or the good looking wheels. Those options (which I'd want) are $9000 + $5000 + $1000 + $1500, or $16,500 total. So the Model 3 would be $51,500, assuming there's no other costs/options in there that they force on you (which I doubt). And that's before delivery and dealer charges, if any, sales taxes, etc.

Note that this ignores all the automation technology and prereqs, the fancy extra electronics device integration technology, the coming performance versions (which I'd like, but not at the price they'll be offered), etc.

So unless and until the prices come down meaningfully (say in 2020 or so, under volume production) -- IMO, it's not really a middle class car. It's just not as obscenely expensive as the Model S or X.

Second, it's not like the 400,000+ Model 3 reservation holders don't know this. They know many of them won't get anything close to a $7500 federal tax credit.

Third, this will impact all EV selling car companies in time, not just Tesla.

I actually think this fading away is a good thing. EV's should be able to compete economically on even footing. All indications are they'll be able to do so to a greater and greater extent within the next decade. Re cheaper EV's with some range like the Bolt and the new Leaf, I'd argue that they already can (though the tax credit is no doubt helpful).
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 30 Sep 2017, 15:34:36

tita wrote:Among other things, it seems the ramp up is quite slow (250th model 3), and it appears that there is still some big issues that need to be resolved.

Do you have a source for the 250th model 3 statement? Or the "still quite slow" statement?

I can't find much on this. The one hit I found via Google which estimates 300 to 400 produced is self-admitted pure speculation by a Baird analyst on Friday.

I'm not saying you're wrong. I'd just like to see real data vs. speculation. And if there is speculation from a reliable source, I'd like to know the source and what they're saying and why.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla- ... 2017-09-29
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 30 Sep 2017, 16:02:43

I don't claim any insider information about nearby Tesla Motors. I do know people who work there, who used to work at my former employer. Tesla continues to have labor relations issues. They did hire enough to alleviate the acute labor shortage reported last year when people were working double shifts and sleeping in tents near the factory. Then they ramped up Model 3 production, and things are - if not bad - at least not yet good again.

People are speculating that Musk does not ever want to lay off anyone, after the traumatic (for him at least) 3,000 person layoff after the Solar City acquisition. That might or might not be true, but in Silicon Valley, it's still regarded as a good place to work, and a product line with a future.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 30 Sep 2017, 16:11:22

KaiserJeep wrote:Tesla continues to have labor relations issues.


While that may be true, that isn't really an existential threat to Tesla's future, just as the Foxconn suicides did not slow Apple's ascension.
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Re: Making Tesla pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 30 Sep 2017, 17:15:30

KaiserJeep wrote:I don't claim any insider information about nearby Tesla Motors. I do know people who work there, who used to work at my former employer. Tesla continues to have labor relations issues. They did hire enough to alleviate the acute labor shortage reported last year when people were working double shifts and sleeping in tents near the factory. Then they ramped up Model 3 production, and things are - if not bad - at least not yet good again.

That's not surprising. At least Musk was honest about it when he announced the coming "Model 3 production hell".

That sort of pressure is all too normal in the modern corporate world of cost cutting.

What I think is important is how long it lasts, and whether Musk rewards people for the effort.

It's honesty, integrity, and balance that will keep good employees over time.

I believe many companies that are now not doing so well like the huge but hapless IBM forgot that principle, when they changed their corporate culture from one of general employee respect, to cutting costs is job one.

So as an IBMer that went through MANY "production hells" in software during my career -- they can get away with a lot in the short term as long as their people are comfortable that they will be compensated over time in terms of money and career. But that "credit" runs out.

It will be interesting to see how Musk behaves toward his employees over time, assuming the Model 3 is successful (which in my book would include taking until say June or so to ramp to 5000 a week -- as long as the ramping does indeed occur, and the quality of the cars is on point). What he can't do, IMO, is constantly claim it's an "emergency" and push people too hard much of the time, and expect good people to just put up with that.
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