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Making Tesla profitable?

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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 21 Jun 2017, 18:54:49

Outcast_Searcher wrote:And what would your choices be now? Make another reservation and hope things are better in 2019 or so? Or wait for a competitor? Would the new reservation still be refundable?


I am hoping that Tesla lets us know whether the Model Y dash will match the 3 in forcing you to look down and to the right for the speedo. If the Y is going to have a more traditional dash I will try to roll my reservation over. One would expect reservations for the Y to start up not long after the 3 enters production. The dashboard is just one extra reason to wait for what I really wanted, which is a small crossover.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:I would NOT be happy if my only choice would be the functional equivalent "you can have any color you want, as long as it's black. Now buy today, or go to the end of the (very long) line."


I don't think Tesla has done a good job of keeping reservation-holders updated on what to expect. A lot of wild speculation and wishful thinking is still going on.



In other news...Tesla is in serious talks with other automakers about having them share the Supercharger network. I could see VW wanting to go for that in order to maybe escape having to build the CCS fast-charge network.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby efarmer » Wed 21 Jun 2017, 21:13:54

Physics says the anodic destruction of fast charge is a show stopper. Responses?
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 21 Jun 2017, 21:18:16

baha wrote:The simple lines of the interior are what make the Model S and the BMW i-series special. I think Elon is prepping us for no dashboard at all. Just sit back and relax...

I'm not real fond of that idea either...

Elon can't say (by himself) when truly autonomous cars will be ready, even if he "knows" Tesla will have the technology at a "good enough" state in X years.

Society, including government, lawyers, insurance companies, car buyers, ride buyers, etc. etc. will all have a say in that.

I think it would be a mistake for Elon to flatly assume we'll all be driving automated cars so quickly that things like an ugly dash or inconvenient speedometer location "don't matter".

One of the things I like best about my new Camry is how I can customize things like whether I have a digital speedometer visible and where it is, in addition to the standard analog speedo.

As we get older and our eyes aren't as good in various light, etc., having an easier to read option really appeals. And if you don't like/need that, there are a whole group of other things you can see about mileage, tire pressure, and on and on. And this is with the base car.

I think drivers are going to be able to get and want far more features and customization, not less. With lots of EV competition coming in the next several years, I truly believe Elon ignoring that is a big mistake.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 21 Jun 2017, 22:31:59

efarmer wrote:Physics says the anodic destruction of fast charge is a show stopper. Responses?
The computer on a Tesla monitors how often you fast charge. After you exceed a certain number of fast charges, the car will permanently throttle the charge rate down to prevent you from damaging the batteries.

Hi everyone. I just got off the phone with Tesla with some disturbing news. My car has approximately 30,000 miles on it. I regularly use CHADeMo[fast charging] to charge my car, with the occasional Supercharger charge on road trips. On my last road trip, I noticed that my supercharging rate was significantly reduced, usually staying between 75 kw and 90 kw. At first, I thought it was the station, but each Supercharger on my trip had the same behavior. So I bought my car in for service last week.

After the technicians went over the and presumably consulted with the mothership, it was determined that the car has now entered a permanent degraded mode where it will no longer allow fast charging to "prevent battery degradation." Read that again... that's right... if you use Superchargers or any DC Fast Charging, including CHADeMo, your car will eventually enter into a permanently degraded mode that will prevent you from charging your car at reasonably fast speeds.
If you fast charge, Tesla will permanently throttle charging

The Tesla community had another small technical/communication controversy this week that was not unlike the controversy around Tesla’s undisclosed performance restrictions with max power output in March. We learned this week that the automaker is also limiting the charging rate when Supercharging on vehicles that have accumulated too many DC fast-charge events. Electrek reached out to Tesla to get the official reason behind the change. Some Tesla owners have been complaining about a slower than usual charge rate at Superchargers on forums and social media for a while now.

The issue came back into focus this week after a Tesla owner returned from a road trip where he used several different Superchargers and couldn’t get a charge rate above 90 kW even though the top charge rate is officially 120 kW.

He went to the Tesla Service Center and posted the technician’s conclusion to the Tesla Motors Club:
Supercharger General Diagnosis Conclusion: No Trouble Found. Review vehicle logs and verify charging is topping out a lower rate than observed on earlier DC charging sessions. According to Tesla engineers, once vehicle has been DC fast charged over a specified amount, the battery management system restricts DC charging to prevent degradation of the battery pack. According to Tesla engineers, this vehicle has seen significant DC fast charging and is now has permanently restricted DC charging speeds. Important to note, supercharging will always still be available to the vehicle and the battery pack has not yet experienced significant degradation due to the amount of DC fast charging performed on the pack up until this point in time. Vehicle is operating as designed.


The news that a limit has been placed on DC fast-charging has sparked some outrage among Tesla owners in the thread, but to be fair, this particular Tesla owner has been virtually only charging through DC fast-charging, which is not common amongst electric vehicle owners. He said that he accumulated 6,685.603 kWh of DC fast charges during 245 total charge ups on CHAdeMO only – and he estimates that he used Superchargers on “50 to 60 occasions” on top of that.

In a statement, Tesla explains that it is a software limitation to optimize for the best possible owner experience that’s within the limits of physics. Here’s the statement in full:
“The peak charging rate possible in a li-ion cell will slightly decline after a very large number of high-rate charging sessions. This is due to physical and chemical changes inside of the cells. Our fast-charge control technology is designed to keep the battery safe and to preserve the maximum amount of cell capacity (range capability) in all conditions. To maintain safety and retain maximum range, we need to slow down the charge rate when the cells are too cold, when the state of charge is nearly full, and also when the conditions of the cell change gradually with age and usage. This change due to age and usage may increase total Supercharge time by about 5 minutes and less than 1% of our customers experience this.

Tesla is not slowing down charge rates to discourage frequent Supercharging – quite the opposite. We encourage our customers to use the Supercharger network at their discretion and we committed to doubling the number of worldwide chargers just this year. We also want to ensure that our customers have the best experience at those Superchargers and preserve as much vehicle range as possible – even after frequent usage.”
Tesla explains why it limits Supercharging speed after high numbers of DC charges
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 22 Jun 2017, 10:30:47

The battery chemistry remains the weakest link in the chain here. There's an open debate as to whether the new cells being built have improved chemistry (more durability) or not. That should be an important factor for reservation holders to consider. Being an early adopter and watching the chemistry flip over could result in having a car with significantly less pack durability and resale value.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby EdwinSm » Mon 03 Jul 2017, 14:01:59

I am not sure that being ahead of schedule by two weeks is enough to justify the rise in share prices, but after all the deadlines they missed in other cars it is nice to see this one is on time. Maybe the investors had priced in some delays and were caught out by a major new project being completed on time. :o

BBC wrote:Elon Musk said its new Model 3 car would be ready by Friday, two weeks ahead of schedule......Tesla's shares rose about 2% on Monday as investors welcomed the news.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40484488
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 05:00:04

EdwinSm wrote:I am not sure that being ahead of schedule by two weeks is enough to justify the rise in share prices, but after all the deadlines they missed in other cars it is nice to see this one is on time. Maybe the investors had priced in some delays and were caught out by a major new project being completed on time. :o

BBC wrote:Elon Musk said its new Model 3 car would be ready by Friday, two weeks ahead of schedule......Tesla's shares rose about 2% on Monday as investors welcomed the news.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40484488

I'm confused. I just looked at several independent quotes, and I see Tesla closing down at 1:00 Eastern (short trading day) $8.99 or 2.5%.

Stock prices vs. news seem random to me in the short term, but share prices are objective data.

Now, if they were talking about mid morning, the stock was originally up on the news. (I see no timestamp on the article).
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 05:54:33

Ha, ha...The stock price is down in after market trading 2.5% The stock is so volatile right now it doesn't react in any meaningful way to the news. What a roller coaster ride :)

I bought at $198 back in June '16. It is now at $351. I bet I will reach 100% growth by the end of the month. And if he makes his schedule it will continue to climb. I will not sell and I am trying hard not to buy more on the dips. Just let it ride...

The states are starting to cancel incentives and tax EVs thru registration. This just indicates they realize they need to develop a new paradigm for EVs. There is no risk to the technology...it is better :)

Tesla is delivering cars as fast as they can make them while Ford and Chevy have seen a 3% downturn. This transition is going to happen faster than you think...

The big auto makers are shitting bricks :) Interesting how the Germans (VW and BMW) are the only ones taking the threat seriously and making the investment needed to save their industry. At this rate Ford and GM are toast...
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 06:27:12

And please...don't bother me about chargers...

The first generation are commuter cars. They charge at home and at work if possible. You can take all your gas stations and poison pumps and stick them where there is no solar power :)
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 17:02:33

baha wrote:Tesla is delivering cars as fast as they can make them ...


Thats good and bad.

While it seems like good news that Tesla has 400,000 orders for the Model 3 and now they are coming off the assembly line, it isn't clear yet if Tesla is actually making a profit on the Model 3. Some analysts think Tesla will lose as much as $10,000 per Model 3 sold. Tesla is losing money now on the Roadster, and that car sells for almost twice as much as the Model 3.

cnbc-tesla-musk-model-3

Is it possible that Tesla knows they are losing money on every car they sell, so they are trying to make it up on volume?

That marketing strategy has been tried before----and it doesn't work.

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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 19:16:51

The big auto makers are shitting bricks :) Interesting how the Germans (VW and BMW) are the only ones taking the threat seriously and making the investment needed to save their industry. At this rate Ford and GM are toast...


I don't think so. Sales on SUV's in the US are up year on year and demand for the real gas guzzlers is increasing. Obviously the big manufacturers are not that worried about EV encroachment on their business in at least the next few years as they are continuing to build bigger and nastier machines. Chrysler/Jeep as an example is putting out the Hellcat version of the Jeep Grand Cherokee this year with a 700+ HP engine, called the Trackcat capable of leaving Porsche 911 behind them and a true gasoline guzzler. Masserati came out with their own SUV last year that is also a big chunk of metal with no care for miles per gallon.

Meanwhile sales for EV's seem to be up but there are also a lot of folks who bought into the hybrid vehicles when they came out and are now having second thoughts several years later when they find out their batteries need replacing...cheaper to buy a used SUV.

The Tesla model 3 looks relatively cheap at it's starting level but once you put in all the gee gaws that the basic comparative cross bred SUV has it is still prohibitive, especially if you are in an are where you have long commutes and there are no charging stations.

I don't doubt that the technology is sound and important, just not there yet for everyone to want or afford. This will take time and it will be interesting if Tesla's business model is set up for the long haul.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby drwater » Tue 04 Jul 2017, 20:29:21

Meanwhile sales for EV's seem to be up but there are also a lot of folks who bought into the hybrid vehicles when they came out and are now having second thoughts several years later when they find out their batteries need replacing...cheaper to buy a used SUV.


No second thoughts about hybrids here. Just replaced the main battery in my Prius at 228,000 miles for a little under $3000. Nothing else significant has gone wrong with the vehicle. Still have not replaced the front brake pads. Most cost effective car I have ever owned - by far.

When it comes time to replace, I will be looking at another hybrid. The 3 big problems with EVs are:

1. Effectively is the end of the car when the battery dies - way too expensive to replace.
2. Charging takes way too long, pain in the ass - only suitable as a short commuter car.
3. Electric power costs make EVs just about as expensive per mile for energy as a good hybrid.

EVs are kind of cool because they are so quiet, but not worth it as an all around vehicle (at least not yet).
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Wed 05 Jul 2017, 05:30:35

Plantagenet wrote:Is it possible that Tesla knows they are losing money on every car they sell, so they are trying to make it up on volume?


I really don't understand finance...But it seems to me if you build a new factory and start producing product, it's going to be awhile before you make profit. Doesn't it take 5 years to write it off on your taxes? How much profit did Apple make on the first Iphones? I think it will be five years before the economics shake out.

The big auto makers are on their last hurrah. Volume is down but they are enhancing and pushing the models that generate profit. They still haven't figured out how to make money on cheap efficient cars. And they are not really interested in EVs. When they discover their mistake it will be too late. The cool factor is something no one can predict...is it 700 hp or complete silence...you tell me.

EVs with 500 mile range will be normal in few years. I think 1000 is do-able. What doesn't come up in these discussions is speed. Just like ICE cars, EVs take a hit by going faster. Slow down, enjoy the view, and you can double your range.

I watch the trends. Where do they converge? Is it possible to build an electric car that charges itself? I can build a buggy today that can travel at 15 mph as long as the sun is shining. Technology is changing...expectations are changing...who knows where it will all end up?

You're scenario where the EV is dead in the middle of the desert is easily solved by deploying solar panels and just waiting...

But I am enjoying the ride :)
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 05 Jul 2017, 09:59:02

baha wrote:EVs with 500 mile range will be normal in few years. I think 1000 is do-able.

Is it possible to build an electric car that charges itself?

You're scenario where the EV is dead in the middle of the desert is easily solved by deploying solar panels and just waiting...


I'm sorry but you are committing classic techno-optimist sins of physics ignorance here.

You've seen the solar racers, right? The only way to power a vehicle by solar is to make it little more than a bike unless you'd like to camp out in the desert letting your solar-topped car charge for a week or more.

1000 mile range on an EV would require multiple generational leaps in battery technology. Don't hold your breath.

It's rhetoric like this which gives EV fanatics a bad name. EVs are entering a phase where they offer just enough range at barely a low enough pricepoint with just enough charging stations to be able use as your primary vehicle. Batteries are still the weakest link in the chain. They are still too expensive and lack energy density.

It's just people like PStarr who look at the glass as half-empty rather than half-full. For 99% of people out there, something like a Bolt Model 3 with fast-charge stations all around is more than enough vehicle to do the job. But let's not go overboard on the fawning praise of EVs to the point of overlooking the inherent limits of batteries.

Remember too that every technology has limits. Early cars didn't have starter motors. You had to crank-start them. They were leaky and dirty and woefully slow by modern standards. Technology is not static but things tend to go through refinement rather than revolution.

The problem with PStarr is he looks at things as they are, spins them in as negative a away as possible, declares it a "failure", throws up his hands, and walks away snickering. With that sort of attitude we'd never have left the stone-age, which is why it drives me insane. Humans are all about solving problems and building better mousetraps. Defeatist cranks like him would be the first to be culled from the gene pool if not for the luxuries of modernity that he scoffs at.

Range will creep up until we reach a point of diminishing returns on the potential of lithium chemistries. Then it will be necessary to explore totally different approaches, hopefully finally ending with nano-material super-caps so we can drop-kick chemical batteries altogether. But all that stuff remains sci-fi for the moment and we make do with what we have.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 05 Jul 2017, 10:22:52

baha wrote:You're scenario where the EV is dead in the middle of the desert is easily solved by deploying solar panels and just waiting...


Thats not my scenario......I assume its your scenario.

So in your scenario when an EV's battery goes dead, the driver would coast to the side of the road, deploy a solar charger, and wait until his battery recharges?

AND if the EVs battery ran out at night you sit in the car for 8 hours until the sun rises and solar charging can start?

Again I ask.....how exactly is driving the EV until the battery runs out, then slowing to a stop by the side of the road and sitting for 8 hours in the dead EV all night waiting for the sun to rise to deploy a solar charger better so you can wait 8 more hours for the battery charge up in any way BETTER then just driving directly to the destination in a conventional car?

I'd rather just drive directly there, thank you very much.

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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Wed 05 Jul 2017, 11:53:57

Sorry, the scenario I meant came up in the EV thread. Where the autonomous car calls it's replacement and the passenger just switches. At that point the un-manned car can hang-out as long as it takes. And the one you switch to could have been left there yesterday and is now fully charged. Not the most efficient use of capital but better than sending a tow truck.

I didn't put a time limit on 1000 mile range. Or a comfort limit. The fact is the racers already do it...you just don't like the comfort level :)

From the time the Leydon jar was invented until now there have been at least three generations of battery technology. I expect another...and another...

Yes, I am a glass half-full kind of guy. And optimistic about the future. In reality we invented gasoline. It is a very dense portable energy storage device. It represents the fact that physics will allow that much density. I bet there is more than one way to get there.

EVs are the revolution. More reliable, longer lasting, clean transportation. How you deliver and store the electricity will be a constant evolution that just keeps getting better. Just like the evolution of ICE engines.

And yes, I am a fan of science fiction :)
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 05 Jul 2017, 12:48:09

Plantagenet wrote:Again I ask.....how exactly is driving the EV until the battery runs out, then slowing to a stop by the side of the road and sitting for 8 hours in the dead EV all night waiting for the sun to rise to deploy a solar charger better so you can wait 8 more hours for the battery charge up in any way BETTER then just driving directly to the destination in a conventional car?

I'd rather just drive directly there, thank you very much.


False dichotomy. Solar HAS a strong role to play with EVs, just not on or in the car. That's why Musk says he wants to have all superchargers run off solar (perhaps an impossible goal, but worth striving for).

As to what's "better" or not, you claim to be concerned about AGW, right? Mocking EVs and saying you'd just rather drive directly there in a gas car seems incongruent with such concerns.

However, despite the hyperbole, you do demonstrate that fanboism towards EVs taken too far does empower naysayers. Those waiting on perfection will wait forever while everyone else buys into good-enough.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 06 Jul 2017, 01:22:11

asg70 wrote:Mocking EVs .....


The claim that an EV with a 200 mile range can actually go 300 miles is silly. When the battery is depleted it won't go anymore---you have to stop and recharge it. And here's another complication---if you are relying on a solar charger to get it recharged then you can't recharge it if it's dark.

Get it now?

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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 06 Jul 2017, 08:07:46

Plantagenet wrote:Get it now?


Where is someone claiming that you can charge an EV via solar at night or a 200 mile EV go 300 miles?
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Fri 07 Jul 2017, 01:15:27

He is about to build the worlds biggest battery in Australia it will be 3x bigger than the current biggest

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politi ... x6mhy.html
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