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Making Tesla profitable?

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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 15 Jun 2017, 14:08:16

baha wrote:You forgot intelligence :)

Reserves...resouces...do you understand the difference?
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby shortonoil » Thu 15 Jun 2017, 15:04:15

asg70 said:
Right now that pressure simply does not exist.


Saudi Arabia will have burned through its entire SWF in about three years; Venezuela is down to eating its cats and dogs, the 43 largest largest US oil and gas producers lost $160 billion in 2016 year, not a single producer on the planet is replacing its reserves, and the price is still falling. "pressure simply does not exist".

OK... who left the cage door open? They're loose again!
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 15 Jun 2017, 17:46:38

Hawkcreek wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:The tax man will get his due, come what may, unless society completely falls apart.

However, with personal vehicle costs averaging several to many (depending on various factors) thousands of dollars a year for late model cars, pretending like trading a gasoline tax for a registration cost will IN ANY MEANINGFUL WAY price personal vehicles "out of the hands of the typical buyer" has no credibility in math or economics. (Doomer wishful thinking OTOH, yes, as usual).

I wasn't pretending anything - that is your pretension. I merely threw out a possibility. And total life cycle costs of any item will have an effect on the adoption or discard of that item. I only said that it COULD put ownership out of the hands of the average buyer.
And I have said many times that I am not a doomer. I think it will end more like JMGreer says, with a long term downtrend.
So stop acting like you are the only one with worthwhile opinions.
I disrespect your cornucopian beliefs also. Take that!!! :P

You state it like you believe it's going to happen, despite the fact that the math/economics doesn't tell that tale. I point that out, and you get upset.

II get used to such unsupported statements that seem to pay short shrift to the math, with ideas like personal vehicles will be "out of the hands of the average buyer" as the staple of doomer thought.

If you are looking at long term failure since endless BAU growth isn't possible on a finite planet, then we are on the same page there.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Thu 15 Jun 2017, 18:52:36

I think the cornies and doomers can reach agreement.

One day solar power will be freely distributed with Tesla coils...
web_science.jpg
web_science.jpg (71.96 KiB) Viewed 4200 times

This will greatly increase the demand for Tin-Foil Hats :lol:
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Thu 15 Jun 2017, 19:11:17

Outcast_Searcher wrote:You state it like you believe it's going to happen, despite the fact that the math/economics doesn't tell that tale. I point that out, and you get upset.

Wrong again - I even emphasized the word "Could" in my response. That means I think it is a possibility. And I didn't get upset - I just don't like someone distorting what I say, trying to prove an un-proveable point. And then I got amused.
Almost all of these forum discussions are pure bullshit - you should know that by now.
When you talk about the math or economics being required to support an OPINION, it becomes even stupider. You were just trying to say that your opinion is better than mine.
Fine, you win - go have a beer to celebrate.
But in my OPINION, you are even dumber than I thought, and I have the math to prove it.
I'm putting the proof in a locked file, to be opened only in the event of my untimely demise.
So you better hope I live a long time. :-D :P :)
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 20 Jun 2017, 09:16:03

Hybbert's curve, meet S-curve: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 20 Jun 2017, 11:56:49

Hawkcreek wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:You state it like you believe it's going to happen, despite the fact that the math/economics doesn't tell that tale. I point that out, and you get upset.

Wrong again - I even emphasized the word "Could" in my response. That means I think it is a possibility. And I didn't get upset - I just don't like someone distorting what I say, trying to prove an un-proveable point. And then I got amused.
Almost all of these forum discussions are pure bullshit - you should know that by now.
When you talk about the math or economics being required to support an OPINION, it becomes even stupider. You were just trying to say that your opinion is better than mine.
Fine, you win - go have a beer to celebrate.
But in my OPINION, you are even dumber than I thought, and I have the math to prove it.
I'm putting the proof in a locked file, to be opened only in the event of my untimely demise.
So you better hope I live a long time. :-D :P :)

Got it. If name calling were credible for adults, you'd be a genius. Congrats.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 20 Jun 2017, 12:13:22

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Hawkcreek wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:You state it like you believe it's going to happen, despite the fact that the math/economics doesn't tell that tale. I point that out, and you get upset.

Wrong again - I even emphasized the word "Could" in my response. That means I think it is a possibility. And I didn't get upset - I just don't like someone distorting what I say, trying to prove an un-proveable point. And then I got amused.
Almost all of these forum discussions are pure bullshit - you should know that by now.
When you talk about the math or economics being required to support an OPINION, it becomes even stupider. You were just trying to say that your opinion is better than mine.
Fine, you win - go have a beer to celebrate.
But in my OPINION, you are even dumber than I thought, and I have the math to prove it.
I'm putting the proof in a locked file, to be opened only in the event of my untimely demise.
So you better hope I live a long time. :-D :P :)

Got it. If name calling were credible for adults, you'd be a genius. Congrats.

I guess that makes you the brightest bulb in the box . . . of incandescent lol

Tell me Mr. Brilliance, which is more adult? Dumber or doomer?
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 20 Jun 2017, 12:17:06

pstarr wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Hawkcreek wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:You state it like you believe it's going to happen, despite the fact that the math/economics doesn't tell that tale. I point that out, and you get upset.

Wrong again - I even emphasized the word "Could" in my response. That means I think it is a possibility. And I didn't get upset - I just don't like someone distorting what I say, trying to prove an un-proveable point. And then I got amused.
Almost all of these forum discussions are pure bullshit - you should know that by now.
When you talk about the math or economics being required to support an OPINION, it becomes even stupider. You were just trying to say that your opinion is better than mine.
Fine, you win - go have a beer to celebrate.
But in my OPINION, you are even dumber than I thought, and I have the math to prove it.
I'm putting the proof in a locked file, to be opened only in the event of my untimely demise.
So you better hope I live a long time. :-D :P :)

Got it. If name calling were credible for adults, you'd be a genius. Congrats.

I guess that makes you the brightest bulb in the box . . . of incandescent lol

Tell me Mr. Brilliance, which is more adult? Dumber or doomer?


You consistently make 5 year olds look brilliant. Your signal to noise ratio is roughly zero. Your parents must be proud.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 20 Jun 2017, 13:09:35

baha wrote:I think the cornies and doomers can reach agreement.

One day solar power will be freely distributed with Tesla coils...
web_science.jpg

This will greatly increase the demand for Tin-Foil Hats :lol:


Amusing, but that is a picture of somebody standing on an insulated pad and touching the top electrode of a Van de Graff generator, a source of DC static electricity.

This is a Tesla coil (i.e. high frequency AC):
Image
...this particular one is a miniature solid state version.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 20 Jun 2017, 13:23:05

Outcast_Searcher wrote:You consistently make 5 year olds look brilliant. Your signal to noise ratio is roughly zero. Your parents must be proud.

You called him a doomer, he called you dumber. Now I am a five-year old, yet good grammar demands a hyphen between two dependent adjectives.

Let's stick with the facts . . . Tesla's a con job marketed to wealthy and hypocritical GW hysterics.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 20 Jun 2017, 21:35:31

pstarr wrote:Let's stick with the facts . . . Tesla's a con job marketed to wealthy and hypocritical GW hysterics.


I just posted a news article explaining that Tesla is following through on a commitment (finally making EV cells from scratch at the gigafactory) and you respond with deliberate troll-bait aimed at kicking up a flamewar.

If the mods simply perma-banned you the level of discussion here would improve by several orders of magnitude. All you do is drag down every thread you bust yourself into.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby efarmer » Tue 20 Jun 2017, 22:04:29

First of all I would like to preface my remarks with my tremendous respect for Elon Musk and what he has accomplished and is poised to do going forward. We will never have enough of these kind of persons that drive things forward. My tickle is what he names his created companies and the fact it is devoid of the Trump brands that always start with, wait for it... Trump.

I have always prized Nikola Tesla, reading as a young man how he saw a whirlwind of leaves in a park and was inspired that if he could make a magnetic field rotate he could make an alternating current motor. Just that fast, and then he had the moxie to do the math and do single and polyphase proofs before building them.

The car is not called a Musk Model S, pity that, I can just hear the car salesman have you and the better half sit in the new marvel and ask you to smell the exciting new car smell of a hot, fresh, Musk right off the line. Of course the mass production model will not be as Musky as the top tier S, but will still have enough Musk to stimulate the discerning buyer.

The space launch vehicles and capsules are called of course SpaceX. This beats the stuffing out of calling the launch vehicles Muskets, or the spacecraft Muskcraft, or the eventual (if not already consumated) human sexual expression in space, Muskcraft Love.

I do not think Mr. Musk and Tesla, or the battery works, or Spacex or his other endeavors are in any way B.S. endeavors, I do think that Wall Street is so horny for a big money sink they are way out in front of the power curve of finance vs proven technology. It is a Bull Market powered by the electrical bull from bar fame with a clever operator and without a real bull in the mix.I do think Tesla will be very profitable, from what we see now, from what the imagination and talent creates, and from the fact they are very nimble and will use their huge financial leverage and cred to target what works. I do believe in the Musk efforts as a whole, I also believe the mechanical bull of Wall Street will use it to slaughter hogs in the market as the best feral hog pen they have available to them to work with. I really don't know of course, just my opinion, I don't see a reason to disparage pro and con voices about it, I just have a curiosity about how the real bright spots in our economy are gamed by the same old shits in New York to fill their pockets on hype and leveraged cred. When the gravity of the American market shifts to California, Texas, Washington State, and a few other places, we may be on our way to a system that reflects where the game is played, instead of where the game is fixed and broken.

New York is full of fine people and a great place, I just do not see why they have any right to control the financial future of the USA any longer. Being the most important people on earth is only good when you are truly the most important people on earth, not when you need huge financial input for being the performance artist formerly known as the most important people on earth.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 21 Jun 2017, 00:47:53



Popular Mechanics wrote:The Gigafactory is the lynchpin in Tesla's plan to create an affordable Model 3. By the end of 2018—when the first Model 3s are expected to ship—the factory is expected to produce enough batteries for 500,000 cars. This volume is key to the Model 3's $35,000 price tag.

Thanks for the link to the article.

I'm confused. I keep reading on places like CNBC (and I think elsewhere) that Tesla is on track to start producing Model 3's in July of this year, and plans to be building 5000 a month by year-end AND building 10,000 a month by the end of 2018.

So I am assuming they will ship by Sept. or Oct. (time to work out production bugs, road test early models hard/thoroughly, build up a meaningful inventory to ship in some volume when shipping starts, etc.)

But not shipping any until the end of 2018 when they're producing 5 to 10,000 a month through 2018 (if all goes according to plan) makes NO sense to me under any circumstance I can imagine. They're burning lots of cash. As long as the cars seem of acceptable quality, why wouldn't they ship in volume ASAP?

I also read that initially they will only offer color and wheels as options. Presumably to make the base car the same and greatly initially facilitate volume production to help meet initial demand for people that just want one soon and are willing to live without lots of feature choices.

....

So what am I missing? Is this Popular Mechanics copying/printing some very outdated schedule, or am I a lost ball in high weeds on Tesla's near term model 3 plans?

(I just did a few Google searches, and hits like these I got make me think Popular Mechanics either needs to do a better job of editing / proof reading, or their writers aren't keeping up with what Tesla is announcing about the Model 3 schedule).

I will also presume this good news for the Model 3 schedule is a major reason TSLA has been on such a tear in the market in recent months.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/03/tesla-on ... erway.html

https://cleantechnica.com/2017/05/22/te ... lontweets/

http://www.investors.com/news/technolog ... o-furious/

http://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-desi ... ons-first/
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 21 Jun 2017, 01:05:34

asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote:Let's stick with the facts . . . Tesla's a con job marketed to wealthy and hypocritical GW hysterics.


I just posted a news article explaining that Tesla is following through on a commitment (finally making EV cells from scratch at the gigafactory) and you respond with deliberate troll-bait aimed at kicking up a flamewar.

If the mods simply perma-banned you the level of discussion here would improve by several orders of magnitude. All you do is drag down every thread you bust yourself into.

pstarr sticks to facts about EV's and economics about like Trump deals with facts in general. And yet somehow that's supposed to add to the conservation?

At some point I think he's just wasting everyone's time. I've got him on ignore now, but saw this quote in your post, asg70.

It's one thing to point out meaningful issues/barriers to widespread EV adoption. It's another to claim Tesla is a "con job" when they're shipping tens of thousands of cars, and look to turn the corner to hundreds of thousands.

As I've said before, even if Tesla can't turn the corner to profitability soon enough to survive (which could still happen if big/persistent Model 3 problems emerge early) -- the technology and know how isn't going to disappear. All the mainstream automakers working on new competitive EV's with 200+ mile ranges due out in 2018 to 2021 aren't going away.

Troll-bait sounds like the right label for pstarrs antics to me. And he calls it "facts". zerosense would be proud.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby kublikhan » Wed 21 Jun 2017, 01:27:35

It's probably a misinterpretation on the part of the author. Tesla will start delivering Model 3s this year. But the model 3 reservation list is huge. All deliveries for 2017 and most of 2018 are going to fill the reservation list. If someone ordered it today, they could not take delivery until the end of 2018:

Tesla has confirmed that it’s on track to deliver the first production Model 3 next month. This was confirmed by Tesla co-founder and CEO Elon Musk during the company’s recent shareholder meeting. Not only will the first production Model 3 be delivered next month, Tesla is also going to reveal the Model 3 configurator in July. We’ll know then what configuration options the company is offering for its $35,000 electric car.

Tesla already has a huge backlog of Model 3 orders that it has to clear so keeping things simple certainly works in its favor. Musk also pointed out that demand for the Model 3 is high and if someone places an order for it today, they probably won’t receive their Model 3 until the end of 2018.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 21 Jun 2017, 08:38:43

Outcast_Searcher wrote:So I am assuming they will ship by Sept. or Oct. (time to work out production bugs, road test early models hard/thoroughly, build up a meaningful inventory to ship in some volume when shipping starts, etc.)


The working out of bugs and road testing is already wrapping up. That's why there are so many RC sightings all around the US. Whether that will prove to be enough of a shakedown remains to be seen, of course. With that in mind, I've heard that the configurator goes live at the end of July immediately after the keynote (ala Apple) and then they start shipping to those at the front of the line immediately. I've heard that they're streamlining the sale transaction/delivery process as much as possible to just get the cars on the road.

IMHO, the biggest liability of the Model 3 rollout probably isn't anything related to supply-chains, etc... but the design decision on their part to give it a cheap unfinished-looking dashboard. I have a reservation myself and while I'll wait and see what Musk shows and tells about the dashboard next month. I may cancel my reservation over it.

I mean, once the novelty of driving EVs dissolves these are just cars and people make their buying decision on lots of criteria besides just powerplant. Choice is only going to expand in the next few years.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 21 Jun 2017, 08:56:19

Outcast_Searcher wrote:even if Tesla can't turn the corner to profitability soon enough to survive (which could still happen if big/persistent Model 3 problems emerge early) -- the technology and know how isn't going to disappear.


Good point. Xerox PARC is a good example of a company with dysfunctional business plan that still wound up spawning ideas and a brain-trust that changed the world. Technology is evolutionary. Tesla itself leaned heavily on AC Propulsion who has gone on to just limp along ever since as a glorified hobbyist company.

As far as Tesla goes, Lucid was founded by Tesla defectors.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:All the mainstream automakers working on new competitive EV's with 200+ mile ranges due out in 2018 to 2021 aren't going away.


PStarr and his ilk are on their last hurrah as naysayers. They'll keep shifting goalposts to try to invalidate or downplay the transition until they look totally absurd.

The funny thing about it is StarvingLion is already at that absurd level of hyperbole in his constant accusations that everything is a Ponzi scheme. By the end of it, PStarr's rhetoric will probably become indistinguishable from SL's.

Tens of thousands of hours camped out on peakoil.com with the sole purpose to issue angry screeds will rot the brain.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 21 Jun 2017, 11:09:18

asg70 wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:So I am assuming they will ship by Sept. or Oct. (time to work out production bugs, road test early models hard/thoroughly, build up a meaningful inventory to ship in some volume when shipping starts, etc.)


The working out of bugs and road testing is already wrapping up. That's why there are so many RC sightings all around the US.

Agreed, after more reading this seems clear. I was trying to come up with SOME logical reason the delay could take months from the July (in our face) Model 3 manufacturing start date. To me, that miss by Rolling Stone was rather glaring. (Such errors are all too frequent, IMO, in so much of the internet press these days).

asg70 wrote:IMHO, the biggest liability of the Model 3 rollout probably isn't anything related to supply-chains, etc... but the design decision on their part to give it a cheap unfinished-looking dashboard. I have a reservation myself and while I'll wait and see what Musk shows and tells about the dashboard next month. I may cancel my reservation over it.

I mean, once the novelty of driving EVs dissolves these are just cars and people make their buying decision on lots of criteria besides just powerplant. Choice is only going to expand in the next few years.

Makes perfect sense to me. And you answered a question I have about how this works, apparently.

So to me, if you don't like what happens initially with the Model 3 re initial feature limitations, or even a crude dash that might well be fixed/modified/upgrade options added, etc. -- I don't see why a reservation holder should have to just cancel. It seems to me that Tesla should make you wait behind people willing to take the initial generic Model 3 as is -- sure. But not behind EVERYONE who has made a reservation.

And what would your choices be now? Make another reservation and hope things are better in 2019 or so? Or wait for a competitor? Would the new reservation still be refundable?

I think Tesla could really hurt itself here in terms of long term customer loyalty, if it doesn't acknowledge that in the race to meet its very aggressive schedule (which is fine and commendable that they might actually do it -- I was wrong on that one), it isn't giving hundreds of thousands of customers in line the choices (IMO) that they should have reasonably expected. I would NOT be happy if my only choice would be the functional equivalent "you can have any color you want, as long as it's black. Now buy today, or go to the end of the (very long) line."

...

Of course, we're talking about real cars in the short term, and customer choices about buying those cars. That's a LONG way from talking about a fraud or a con or vaporware.

Me, I'm excited about the next 5 years. I read last night that the estimate for the 0-60 time for the base Model 3 is a very zippy 5.6 secs. (We may not get that confirmed until the formal announcement).

The same article was estimating sub 4 second "performance" versions -- which would likely cost over $50,000. And it also talked about Tesla battery densities already improving. I really like the idea of a sporty, fun, AND green and reliable EV to run around in by the early 2020's, if Tesla can manage to have dealers and service centers in enough places. (I will insist on peace of mind with owning a car (especially an expensive car), if at all possible).

https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesl ... ws-rumors/
When it comes to performance, the Model 3 will easily keep up with the BMW 3 Series. The base model will hit 60 mph from a standstill in less than 5.6 seconds, while more powerful variants will perform the same task in under four seconds. Tesla has also confirmed the 3 will be available with the Ludicrous mode that cemented the car’s spot as the quickest series-produced vehicle on the planet.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Wed 21 Jun 2017, 13:28:07

The simple lines of the interior are what make the Model S and the BMW i-series special. I think Elon is prepping us for no dashboard at all. Just sit back and relax...

I'm not real fond of that idea either...
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