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Making Tesla profitable?

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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby hvacman » Tue 30 May 2017, 11:34:41

re: commute distances:

Per US DOT statistics, 78% of all workers drive 20 miles or less 1-way to work. 40 miles or less round-trip.

http://www.statisticbrain.com/commute-statistics/

My 2013 generation 1 Chevy Volt, which is not the most efficient EV around anymore, recharges its entire 40-mile range in 8 hours on it's Level 1 115 volt/15 amp charger plugged into a standard 115 volt outlet in my garage. Plug it in at 6 pm when I get home, it is ready to go by 2 am.

If I plug in my level 2 charger to the dryer outlet, it will recharge the 40 miles in 4 hours. So the lowly, now-obsolete short-range PHEV Volt will do the entire commute on electricity for most workers and will easily re-charge overnight even off a 115 volt plug.

Tesla's experience has been that with long range EV's like their model S's, about 6% of all driving miles are via Superchargers. The other 94% is via home charging or destination charging.

But we just don't know "how many" charging stations will be required in 10-15 years, as we don't even know what the automotive market will look like. Baby Boomers and Gen-X'ers are driving the current bull market, but the Millennials who will be the main vehicle buyers in 10-15 years are much less inclined to buy a car or even get a driver's license.

The entire personal transportation situation is in such a state of flux. Even as ICE vehicles, especially big PU's and SUV's, dominate the market, the auto manufacturers' crystal balls are suggesting very-different futures ahead. GM is hedging their Silverado/Tahoe cash-cow bets with all sorts of "future" technologies - EV and otherwise.

http://insideevs.com/gm-paves-future-chevy-bolt-cruise-maven-lyft/
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 30 May 2017, 11:53:29

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
pstarr wrote:WTF are you talking about? Level 1 charging (what you might have outside your home by your driveway) you don’t get better than four miles an hour. Charge all night and you might make it to work. How many chargers at your place of work?

Always with the strawmen. You can't do better than that?

If you follow the conversation, rather than just trolling me, you'd note the origin of the WTF. But regardless, as to the content: how are my numbers wrong?

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Level 2 charging, which would be needed for a full EV for most people (vs a hybrid, where level 1 can do OK in many cases) would clearly be needed. It's not that big a deal. I already spec'd mine out with my electrician, including planning the route from my box through my 60 year old house, for when the time comes for me to buy an EV. (I'm letting the technology, including the fate of Tesla, mature for a bit).

So what is the cost estimate to wire a Level 2 station into your garage or parking area?

Outcast_Searcher wrote:1). Level 2 charging is well over twice as fast as level 1. In fact, it looks like 5+ times, generally. So now if you're talking roughly 20 miles of range per hour of charging, that's plenty for the VAST majority of people, as the following charge chart via the link to a leading EV charging power provider shows.

https://www.clippercreek.com/level-1-le ... -stations/

level on is 120 volt, two is 220. How could it be five times as fast?

Outcast_Searcher wrote:2). With a well under 5% adoption rate for EV's, of COURSE there aren't enough public chargers yet. But they're springing up more and more places, and will build out more rapidly -- once the demand for that is significant. A likely model for that is southern CA, where they're showing up in more and more shopping centers, for example.

3). For most people, six or less hours of L2 charging a day would be more than sufficient. They could do the occasional public charge for a longer trip. Going 40 to 100 miles round trip for a day of work isn't a big deal with EV ranges well over 200 miles, and moving to well over 300 miles with the vehicles already planned. Even if the batteries don't improve, and they will.

4). Heck, another alternative within a decade for most people (which I'm keeping an open mind on), might be to just have a level 1 charger for their normal low mileage use (mine is typically under 15 miles a day), and use a public charger weekly or so, as needed to keep the battery, say, over half full. Depending on the costs and availability of such public chargers within the next decade, and how quickly it is safe (to preserve the battery longevity) to fast charge an EV to 80% or so from say 40% or so (in say 30 minutes or less, for example), this might work just fine for low mileage users. After all, it's not like it's difficult to average over 4-6 hours a night plugged in for people who are home 10-12 hours in the typical evening.

Spreading around FUD about EV's isn't any more useful than spreading around fast-crash economic doom FUD (and always being wrong).

This stuff is going to be hard enough to figure out using actual statistics, realistic trends, capacity, and affordability data. How about joining the adults in the room and being serious about the real world data for a change?

IMO, this is needed. There are already far too many deniers pretending it's impossible (as part of the AGW denial meme -- i.e. claiming we don't "need" EV's anyway). There are ALSO far too many super-greens, like green magazines, that ignore math and economics and go the other way, greatly exaggerate all things relative to green energy, and pretend like there are no obstacles.

Both groups are quite unhelpful to society taking informed, "reasonable" steps toward the transition to EV's which is coming over (say) the next few decades, IMO.

Not my discussion. you to to discuss issue of early adoption, exponential growth and Hirsch time-frame in the context of the POD.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 30 May 2017, 12:43:04

pstarr wrote:Level 1 charging (what you might have outside your home by your driveway) you don’t get better than four miles an hour.


Anyone who has an EV is not charging directly off 110. They have a dedicated 240V charger.

https://www.tesla.com/support/home-char ... stallation

According to the charging calculator, a NEMA 14-50 plug into a 48 amp on-board charger yields 230 miles on an overnight 8-hour charge. High amperage w/ wall-connector gets it done in almost half the time.

Heck, even a Volt can charge on 110 overnight and yield enough juice to get most people to work and back. How many people work 100+ miles away from the office?

Seriously, do you put more than a nanosecond of thought into your posts before you start banging your luddite FUD at the keyboard? The rampant ignorance is glaring.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 30 May 2017, 12:54:57

asg70 wrote:
pstarr wrote:Level 1 charging (what you might have outside your home by your driveway) you don’t get better than four miles an hour.


Anyone who has an EV is not charging directly off 110. They have a dedicated 240V charger.

https://www.tesla.com/support/home-char ... stallation

Seriously, do you put more than a nanosecond of thought into your posts before you start banging your luddite FUD at the keyboard? The rampant ignorance is glaring.

I don't know anyone with a level 2 charger. Do you? If so, how much did the full installation cost them? I assume the charger is in the garage, does that installation share a circuit with the 240V electric dryer? Can the dryer and charger operate at the same time?

Does every family car get a personal charger? What about the 100 million Americans that live in apartments? Won't they need to charge at a service station?

Oh, and if not relying on personal rooftop solar, how much NG/coal does the full charge account for? Wouldn't it make more (environmental/budgetary) sense to simply purchase a CNG conversion?
Seriously, do you put more than a nanosecond of thought into your posts before you start banging your luddite FUD at the keyboard? The rampant ignorance is glaring.

Looks like you have a whole crapload of nanoseconds of thinking ahead. Answer the next round. I have more
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 30 May 2017, 12:59:34

ROCKMAN wrote:And stating the documented FACTS


These are dueling predictions, not facts. Putting it in all caps doesn't change matters.

ROCKMAN wrote:how many years before half the new vehicles sold are EV's?


Why are you throwing out the 50% figure?

The most relevant inflection point is where the number begins to displace oil consumption. As long as that rate of displacement keeps up with oil depletion then it will prevent the much-anticipated Mad Max style peak-oil crisis.

ROCKMAN wrote:That should obviously reduce the amount of motor fuel generated GHG entering the atmosphere.


You're the one inserting CO2 technofix-optimism. I'm not. I'm saying the rate of EV adoption will prevent the much-anticipated Mad Max style peak-oil crisis.

As far as where EVs get their power from, one would hope to see natural gas eventually give way to solar or even nuclear. That's a whole other argument.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 30 May 2017, 13:08:53

pstarr wrote:I don't know anyone with a level 2 charger.


Gosh, so that MUST mean nobody has them, right?

pstarr wrote:Do you? If so, how much did the full installation cost them?


Here's your answer.

pstarr wrote:Does every family car get a personal charger?


Why not? You amortize it in the cost of the vehicle itself.

pstarr wrote:What about the 100 million Americans that live in apartments? Won't they need to charge at a service station?


Tesla specifically allows apartment owners to use superchargers as their primary charging method.

pstarr wrote:Wouldn't it make more (environmental/budgetary) sense to simply purchase a CNG conversion?


Not if the intention is to get the grid off of NG/coal and onto renewables.

pstarr wrote:Looks like you have a whole crapload of nanoseconds of thinking ahead. Answer the next round. I have more


Oh, I'm sure you do. Foot must keep being planted firmly into mouth.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 30 May 2017, 14:00:27

L2 chargers are $500 for an indoor unit, another hundred for a weatherproof unit. Installation costs usually apply.

If you have a 240V/32A electric dryer in your garage, sometimes the installation cost is $0. There are charger models that allow you to hang them on the garage wall, and plug the charger into the dryer receptacle. Then you plug the dryer into the charger on the side. The only compromise is you can't use the dryer while L2 charging.

L3, aka DC charging is much more expensive. A solar kiosk and dual L3 charger can cost $50,000. You can save half of that expense if you are using the power grid.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby efarmer » Tue 30 May 2017, 14:53:28

L1 chargers are usually 115V wall outlet operated on a dedicated circuit breaker branch
circuit ideally. L2 chargers vary in output but the L2 power range maxes out at 80A load
on a 240VAC single phase dedicated circuit which is 19.2KW and I assume that is the engineered
limit to pull from an existant home panel and leave adequate power for other appliances
and HVAC to operate properly. L3 chargers are rated at 20KW and up AC or DC. I assume
some L3 designes will use 3 phase power for higher efficiency, and of the L3 charge
realm is open ended as different manufacturers come up with their offering. The
charger technologies are all mature and improving in capacity, I therefore don't think
that they represent a challenge to making Tesla or any EV manufacturer profitable.
The big speculation is that autonomous fleets of urban transport fleet units will all
be EV types, and since the autonomous navigation and control package is independent
of the propulsion system, I am skeptical if EV will win out against CNG vehicles in a low
speed, urban swarm of autonomous vehicle fleets. I would think the cheapest to operate
type would win, especially with regard to refuel cycles times and maintenance. How much
Tesla valuation is on the potential for the autonomous fleet, and how much on the personal
transportation EV coming down in price?
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 31 May 2017, 01:23:43

pstarr wrote: But regardless, as to the content: how are my numbers wrong?

Your numbers are all wrong, as asg70 did a fine job of explaining (so I'll not repeat). As he points out, Google is your friend if you want to discuss specific facts on this stuff.

pstarr wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:1). Level 2 charging is well over twice as fast as level 1. In fact, it looks like 5+ times, generally. So now if you're talking roughly 20 miles of range per hour of charging, that's plenty for the VAST majority of people, as the following charge chart via the link to a leading EV charging power provider shows.

https://www.clippercreek.com/level-1-le ... -stations/

level on [sic] is 120 volt, two is 220. How could it be five times as fast?

My electrician's brief remark on this: "It's the higher amperage." With electric power, it's NOT just voltage (which is analogous to water pressure), it's also amperage (which is analogous to volume of flow).

So you've got twice the voltage, and typically a 32 to 80 amp current with a level 2 charger.

With level one going full blast, the car I was looking at, the Prius Prime, would soak up 16 Amps, according to Toyota, so my electrician would have used a 20 Amp circuit, to be safe.

So if you had, say, 40 Amps at 240 volts, that's over 4 times the amount of power vs 16 amps at 120 volts. Here are some examples (since it's been nearly 40 years since I worked with electricity problems in basic physics, I'll leave the details to people who provide this stuff professionally).

https://store.clippercreek.com/level2
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby efarmer » Wed 31 May 2017, 09:13:13

I'll take a quick and simplified stab at the basic premise.

1. Most homes have a 240VAC power feed, 3 wires with a neutral center. You can either
pull 120V to neutral center from each of the two "hot" wires, or you can
load directly between the two "hots" with a 240VAC load, (L2 Charger, electric range,
electric dryer, air conditioner compressor, etc.) This is the best way to use power so
that the watts are measured and billed to you most accurately.

2. The meter for your house is designed to sense the highest current flowing in either "hot"
wire and assume that is the current being pulled in both and charge you accordingly. This
assumes that the two banks of 120VAC outlets are loaded equally, which is hard to do in
practice. For heavy current loads, they should ideally be 240VAC and be a balanced load
on your home power panel, and have your meter correctly measure this balanced load to keep your costs on power as close to your actual usage of it as practical.

3.You don't get to charge batteries with complete efficiency. Some charger specs will show a maximum efficiency in the low to high 90th percentile range, but in my experience a range of
80% or a bit more is about right. So 20% of your billable AC power for the L2 is going to make
heat in cells, interconnect cables, etc. that is not going to be travel miles of stored power in the battery pack. This is still pretty good efficiency from the grid to a battery pack.

As stated before, the chargers and interconnect systems are well designed and immediately deployable and are not a barrier to EV ramp up, with the exception of how the roadside charger
stations pan out in numbers and locations during such a ramp up.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 31 May 2017, 09:45:32

70 - OK, you want to stick with FACTS and not PREDICTIONS. Fine by me: in 2016 more then 98% of the new vehicles purchased were ICE's. That FACT does not support expectations of less GHG emissions.

"Why are you throwing out the 50% figure?" To be generous to you: there's no PROVABLE basis for predicting EV sales will evervreach that level.

"The most relevant inflection point is where the number begins to displace oil consumption." Obviously not true. The relevant inflection point is when EV's begin reducing the amount of GHG generation. Slowing the CONTINUING increase in GHG generating vehicles IS NOT improving the situation, is it?

Those are not dueling predictions. They both forecast the same: an increase in GHG generation from motor vehicles, right? You project the increase in the % of new sales being EV's. But you don't recognize what you're also saying: more and more ICE's are being added to the rolling stock. Which means more GHG generation.

You are predicting the same as the Rockman whether you realize it or not: as the # of EV's increase more ICE's are still being added to the count and thus increases the amount of GHG generated by this segment. You and other EV cornies fantasize about %'s because you don't want to think in terms of absolute tons of CO2. That would crush your optimistic story line.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Thu 01 Jun 2017, 07:20:51

You all want to talk percentages and trends and numbers of cars added to the fleet, but 5 minutes of research tells me the fleet in the US is shrinking.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/199 ... ince-1951/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vehicle_recycling

One minus the other means cars are declining in the US by 5-8 million/year, and new cars are more efficient than the old ones. These are facts. We are already reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Every little bit helps. I replaced my 15 yr old van with new and went from 18 mpg to 32.

I predict the trend will continue and gain momentum. The fleet will shrink and sales of electric cars will grow.

Why do inventory levels keep going up as the price goes down?
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 01 Jun 2017, 09:25:02

ROCKMAN wrote:The relevant inflection point is when EV's begin reducing the amount of GHG generation.


You are strawmanning me with the CO2 bullshit. Stop it. I care about CO2 and would like emissions to go down just in case but at this point the planet is all but cooked even if CO2 emissions dropped to zero. You can thank your career for that one. Let me guess, when you decided what to do for a living, it was either work in the oil patch or club harp seals? Seriously, wipe the smug off your keyboard.

The most relevant inflection point for those reading peakoil.com is at what point EVs displace oil depletion and softens its eventual impact.

Peakoil 101 says it's not about "running out" of oil. There will be oil for a long time, just less of it. The current calm before the storm due to fracking and the simultaneous EV rollout (far below your chosen 50% mark) has the impact to make up a lot of that difference. That is what's been written about lately in the MSM and you shrug off and then say my predictions have "no basis". No basis for GHG, maybe, but it sure does for oil consumption. This is especially true if the developing world starts to opt into EVs rather than ICE, in which point my links to inroads into China are relevant.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 01 Jun 2017, 13:03:20

asg70 wrote: This is especially true if the developing world starts to opt into EVs rather than ICE, in which point my links to inroads into China are relevant.


?????

The developing world is powering their electric grids primarily by burning coal. Opting into EVs would just increase their use of coal, which is a very bad thing.

The last thing we want is India and other developing countries shifting to EVs. They'll pump so much CO2 into the atmosphere we'll all cook! India has already doubled their coal use in the last 10 years, and plan to double it again over the next 5 years. More EVs will just mean mean more doubling and doubling again and again the consumption of coal to make electricity to power the EVs, with doublings of coal consumption continuing every 5-10 years.

Cheers!

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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 01 Jun 2017, 16:12:24

asg70 wrote:
ROCKMAN wrote:The relevant inflection point is when EV's begin reducing the amount of GHG generation.


You are strawmanning me with the CO2 bullshit. Stop it. I care about CO2 and would like emissions to go down just in case but at this point the planet is all but cooked even if CO2 emissions dropped to zero. You can thank your career for that one. Let me guess, when you decided what to do for a living, it was either work in the oil patch or club harp seals? Seriously, wipe the smug off your keyboard.
Good for you Asg70, you just made another lifelong friend /sarc lol

asg70 wrote:The most relevant inflection point for those reading peakoil.com is at what point EVs displace oil depletion and softens its eventual impact.

Peakoil 101 says it's not about "running out" of oil. There will be oil for a long time, just less of it.
Peakoil 202 says that the aggregate of current producing fields is declining at 6.7% annum and that new reserves are pitifully short of replacement potential. You need to complete the basics.

Peakoil 303 Chaos Theory says that complex entropic systems will by nature enters states of perturbation and phase change . . . collapse into a different paradigm. Asg70 goes huh?

Peakoil Grad Class would teach participating students their Hirsch et al: our industrial infrastructure would require 30 years to convert to an alt. transport system. The numbers don't lie.

asg70 wrote:The current calm before the storm due to fracking and the simultaneous EV rollout (far below your chosen 50% mark) has the impact to make up a lot of that difference. That is what's been written about lately in the MSM and you shrug off and then say my predictions have "no basis".

No basis for GHG, maybe, but it sure does for oil consumption. This is especially true if the developing world starts to opt into EVs rather than ICE, in which point my links to inroads into China are relevant.

A stopped clock is correct twice a day. Yes, regarding CHG
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby efarmer » Thu 01 Jun 2017, 20:34:12

This is a website (early on) that almost completely ignored the huge inertia of a petrochemical industry
that is the biggest infrastructure on this planet and has the political, financial, and regional hooks to persist and prosper in the best of times and endure and get by in the worst. It is the engine that amplified all of us petroleum peasants into a middle class that was made possible by their petroleum exploit after coal warmed homes and made us more comfortable at the turn to the 20th century.
The dynamics of real petroleum industry can lag the consequences because of huge scale, and intertial hangtime of about 30 years or more due to investment and various long term influence and cred.

This is the Luddite or whatever derogitive you wish to apply to some of us that realize that the EV paradign is facing a 30 to 50 year ramp up to where they dream to be in 5 years. It isn't a bias against you, or a belief that your technology is wrong or not timely, or that it is not viable. It is really more that you are facing a 30 year time constant that will want a big chunk of you financially when they finally decide their ride is about over, and they will get it, and you wil think it should have have in 2020, instead of 2040 or 2050. And you will still be pissed that Wall Street drove it to the moonm, and cleaned you like a popsicle stick in 2018 cause you were an early adopter on Tesla or whatever works like a charm.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 02 Jun 2017, 09:12:01

Plantagenet wrote:Opting into EVs would just increase their use of coal


Wrong.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... superpower

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... hina-india

Plantagenet wrote:The last thing we want is India


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... h-iea-says

India is the holdout. You make it sound as if the situation can't be negotiated. Naturally, with someone like Trump in office, that won't happen, but the situation is not static.

At any rate, peak-oil doom and AGW doom are two different things.

Arguing that EVs won't solve AGW doesn't challenge my prediction that they would ameliorate peak-oil.

All I'm saying is I think EVs stick a fork in the Mad Max peak-oil narrative. We maintain BAU and then bang headlong into AGW doom later in the century. This happens regardless of what India or China do thanks to climate inertia. In this respect I'm more in Cid's camp that we're fucked, but that it will likely take longer to playout than he's suggesting.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 02 Jun 2017, 09:17:35

pstarr wrote:you just made another lifelong friend


You're the last person to school anyone on the value of being likable.

pstarr wrote:the aggregate of current producing fields is declining at 6.7% annum and that new reserves are pitifully short of replacement potential.


We're in a glut. Wake me when the lines at the gas stations show up.

pstarr wrote:complex entropic systems will by nature enters states of perturbation and phase change .


House of cards analogy? How convenient to hold onto a perpetual state of imminent dread no matter how calm things look.

pstarr wrote:our industrial infrastructure would require 30 years to convert to an alt. transport system.


Hirsch report came out BEFORE fracking. We have a buffer.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 02 Jun 2017, 18:37:56

asg70 wrote:
India is the holdout. You make it sound as if the situation can't be negotiated. Naturally, with someone like Trump in office, that won't happen, but the situation is not static.


You're blaming the wrong person.

The person who set up the Paris Accords in such a way that it allows India to increase their coal use and CO2 emissions was Obama. And India was only trying to get the same deal that Obama gave to China.

Its Obama's fault that China and India can increase their use of coal and their CO2 emissions by unlimited amounts, and still be in compliance with the useless Paris Accords. Trump had absolutely nothing to do with it.

Cheers!

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Its obama's fault that he entered into a bilateral climate deal with China that allows China to increase its coal use and CO2 emissions by unlimited amounts. This deal formed the template for the Paris Accords which allowed EVERY COUNTRY to do the same. India specifically said they wanted the same ability to use coal and emit unlimited CO2 that China had, and obama-the-worlds-worst-negotiator said---OK, sure enough. Just sign the deal and you can emit all the Co2 you want.

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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 02 Jun 2017, 18:59:25

These EV discussions always devolve into GW or AI prattle. Rarely are critical battery shortcomings ever addressed by the techie/techtopian crowd. Nor the lack of electricity-delivery infrastructure.

100 million Americans live in apartments . . . with no access to private or public charging. Few suburban homes have circuitry for even a level 2 charger. The devil is in the detail, the angel is just a silly dream
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
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