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Making Tesla profitable?

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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 22 Apr 2017, 23:02:29

efarmer wrote:...cell cost has to drop much further to put profit in the manfucturing, dealer, and dealer service operations and to justify consumers not seeing EV vehicles as an 8 year purchase with no resale value. The present fleet of passengers cars has an 11+ year average life.


I don't see why that matters since the people who buy EVs are mainly rich people who want a jazzy second car to show off to the neighbors.

Why does it matter if a rich person ditches his EV after 8 years or after 11?

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Get the other staff and push the Tesla over the side, Humbert. The damn thing is 8 years old and I feel like getting a new one---this time in RED!
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Squilliam » Sat 22 Apr 2017, 23:14:38

One question I do have though about electric cars is this: How long would everything else last aside from the replacement of the batteries and standard wear and tear items such as brake pads? If for instance you're building cars that have service lives of 30-40 years then the equation changes quite dramatically doesn't it? You can build out of more expensive lighter materials, but recoup the overall costs over a far longer service life.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Sun 23 Apr 2017, 04:28:36

SQ - You hit the nail on the head.

Electric cars will last a long long time. I have a 46 and a 54 year old car already. No telling how many ICE engines they have had. But the blower motors and the wiper motors are still original and still work fine. The Squareback had a rats nest inside the blower when I got it. I took it apart and cleaned it and all is well. Even the brake pads on electric cars last forever since you mostly use regen brakes. But I expect I will go thru some tires doing burnouts :) It's always fun to blow someones doors off in a 50 year old car.

The real problem is going to be obsolescence. This is part of why used electric cars are cheap. Just like computers, the technology will advance so fast that people will want new ones just to keep up. And I will take the cheap old ones and build a 4x4 electric Baha buggy :)
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Sun 23 Apr 2017, 04:38:44

Starter motors do occasionally go out. But they are exposed to oil, grime, heat, and vibration. All of which are curiously absent on an electric car. I can't wait to work on one. No hand cleaner needed :)
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Sun 23 Apr 2017, 06:29:18

I can only judge this from personal experience. I have always done my own maintenance on all my cars. As a computer geek I can say I am not intimidated by computer controlled cars and they are easier to troubleshoot than my 50 year old VW's and in many cases easier to work on.

But I know for a fact that an electric car will simplify my life. It will take less time and money to maintain than even my new car. I still have to change it's oil and air filters. Battery life will depend on how you treat it. Just like PV, more is better. If you have 200 miles range and you only use 100, three times a week, batteries will last longer than if you use full range every day.

When I can afford to build an electric VW with twice the range I need, I will get started. Although in reality I have already started. I have an all original '75 classic BMW R75/6 motorcycle. It runs great! I am cleaning it up and polishing so I can sell it. The proceeds will pay for the electric drive train in the VW. Then all I need is batteries.

Like I said, a good engineer always has a plan...
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The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby efarmer » Mon 24 Apr 2017, 19:27:46

I have enjoyed the thread very much and gave it my two cents. Whenever a technology is debated as to if it can replace a large embedded existing one, the posts divide to pro and con with some on the fence and some just soaking up the banter to form opinion. One of the true gems of this website IMHO.

I always like to then play the what if game and assume the new technology wins to explore what then emerges from that.

So right now your private utility bill is taxed and is a source of local income for your community government. Recharging at service stations like liquid fuels will be easy to track and modify tax laws so the transporation infrastructure funding at federal, state, or local level gets a lick, however I wonder how the local comunities will view the revenue from home charging systems. I would imagine they would love the notion of it beefing up the existing electric utility tax income for their traditional uses and needs as opposed to requiring it to be separately metered as vehicle fueling at each home and then divvied up to replace the lost liquid transportation fuels taxation it represents.

That is to say, assuming EV gets big market share, the electric utility wins market share inherently, but how do the taxing authorites reconcile it? Does the efficiency and fast charge superiority drive new homes with 3 phase service or retrofitting 3 phase? I suppose that emerges when /if we get there.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Tue 25 Apr 2017, 07:41:49

I say we cut power to the 1% and make them pay for the roads :)

Screw the utilities...I don't want any more tax money passing thru their sticky fingers. And that model doesn't account for people who charge with PV.

Road tax should be part of your car registration and should be based on max rated load carrying capacity plus trailer rating. That way no one would buy an F350 dually just so their truck is bigger and then drive it around empty.

I'm killing two birds with one stone...
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Tue 25 Apr 2017, 10:35:19

Good piece on Tesla.
It, along with the comments are thought provoking.
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/04/24/4-short-sellers-explain-why-they-target-tesla-but-dont-try-this-at-home/
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 25 Apr 2017, 11:12:56

Hawkcreek wrote:Good piece on Tesla.
It, along with the comments are thought provoking.
http://wolfstreet.com/2017/04/24/4-short-sellers-explain-why-they-target-tesla-but-dont-try-this-at-home/

Here's the Juicero: Silicon Valley’s $400 Juicer May Be Feeling the Squeeze
Doug Evans, the company’s founder, would compare himself with Steve Jobs in his pursuit of juicing perfection. He declared that his juice press wields four tons of force—“enough to lift two Teslas,” he said.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Tue 25 Apr 2017, 11:17:58

Don't you just love the drama :) Will it or won't it...stay tuned.

What a great time to be alive :)
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

https://monitoringpublic.solaredge.com/solaredge-web/p/kiosk?guid=19844186-d749-40d6-b848-191e899b37db
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby efarmer » Tue 25 Apr 2017, 11:59:21

Tesla stock valuation to me seems to be some of that "exuberant froth" that blew off the top and left the underlying bullshit visible in 2008. The American industry knows in it's heart that the money is in making SUV and trucks and not passenger cars. Baha is my sort of person, he is all about his PV array, and taking cast off ICE platforms and making his own EV solution. So far as commercial EV taking over a big chunk of personal transporation, I am stuck on battery costs, and also very inclined to believe that if gasoline becomes too expensive to use in the next 20 years, ICE platforms using natural gas will simply step in and take the big swath by using the simplicity of migration and plentifulness of US gas reserves as the way forward.

The Juicero to me is indicative of my often asserted notion that with growth stalled, innovation is all about garnering more money from mining the remaining consumer class mercilessly. The google drone can drop off a carton of juice packets ordered automatically by your juicer reading your usage data and doing an automatic order and bill cycle to your bank or credit account. Well dang my Tang in my bag out bag, where do I sign up? baha makes his own power, his own EV if he wishes, and I would bet his own juice of all varieties beverage and energy related. I'm with him.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 25 Apr 2017, 12:26:11

efarmer, Its Tesla's giant wall street scam . . . versus . . . that old time VW EV conversion. One a sustainable vision, the other a massive con.

The EV nerds I knew were also into bike-riding, and community, distributed energy systems, local agriculture . . . but especially living small. They understood that a 4,000 lb espresso machine in bumper-to-bumper traffic will not drive.

The ultralight energy-sipping EV must be paired with a sustainable infrastructure, not the suburban automobile sprawl. Only a truly green future can hope to fill in for inexpensive petroleum. Vehicles produced locally, from local recycled feedstock . . . all powered by local energy. Consider Lovin's Hydrogen Economy. A truly efficient elegant EV will not share the road with monster trucks and semis. The hippies were right.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Tue 25 Apr 2017, 14:39:34

Pstarr, I like the way you put that. I have been a hippie since ~13 years old. And back to the Earth forever. I left most of that world behind when I graduated college and played the game for 20 years. Typical Baha6P, fast boats, fast cars, and fast women :) If I had spent that time obsessed with making money I might have made a 10%er but I was more interested in enjoying life.

When that was pulled out from under me I went back to my roots and simplified. If I had lived like this for those 20 years I would be set for life and then some. But no, I frittered it all away...Now I am focused on being set for life without needing a lot of money and not playing the game. In fact I am focused on fighting TPTB every step of the way...they pissed me off.
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.

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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 06 May 2017, 18:01:03

Here you go: the leading wind power scam of the year IMHO. Just saw it on a net work TV show. I suspect no one at CBS realized they were assisting a fraud. Here the website:

https://www.psfk.com/2016/08/plastic-wi ... homes.html

Highlights:

"Plastic Wind Trees Are Bringing Sustainable Power To Residential Homes
Plastic Wind Trees Are Bringing Sustainable Power To Residential Homes
DESIGN & ARCHITECTURE
DOC EMAIL
SHARE
These French-made turbines are offering a small, aesthetically pleasing approach to affordable personal energy

ANNA JOHANSSON
29 AUGUST 2016
According to the Union of Concerned Scientists, an environmental and social research organization, wind energy is the fastest-growing source of alternative electricity in the world. Large wind farms have been used for city power, but it’s been largely removed from residential areas. That’s because it’s taken enormous wind turbines that can be as tall as a five-story building, and almost as wide, to generate enough electricity to make the investment worth it. As a result, only major utility companies have used wind energy to power their facilities. Things are changing now as a company believes they have the solution to residential wind turbines. A French business called New Wind has developed what they’re calling a ‘wind tree,’ built and conceived by Claudio Colucci Design, that can be placed in the backyard of consumer homes to generate energy at home.

The man-made trees are made from plastic and aluminum to mimic the appearance of branches. Plastic leaves (which serve as the turbine blades) are painted green and placed vertically at the ends of each branch. As the wind blows, the ‘leaves’ spin, generating wind power that goes to a transformer to be used in the home."

"They’re also under 30 feet tall and less than 23 feet wide, which is very similar to the height and shape of a standard backyard tree."

"There are a total of 54 leaf turbines on the existing model. As the wind blows, it can capture as much as 5.4 kilowatts of energy at a time. If it continually captures that much energy, the wind trees can produce around 2,400 kWh of energy annually. That’s about half the amount of energy used in a typical French household in a year. Getting two of these trees in a single backyard would take care of all the home’s energy needs."

And the punchline to this sick joke:

"For both delivery and installation, a single wind tree costs about €49,500 (about $56,000), a fraction of the cost for installation and delivery of solar panels. It’s estimated that a single turbine could entirely power a small company for a full year."
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby EdwinSm » Sun 07 May 2017, 04:42:07

[snarky response]It won't work, its not Tesla[/response]

It looks like a very gimmicky approach, which will work well at showing off, and less well at generating power.

The comments about the costs and powering business seem to be way way way off target. Here in very expensive Finland, my electricity provider would be able to sell me that sized system (electric panels) for about € 5 000 plus fitting (but even then it would give me a pay back time of about 20 years due to more sun when I need less electricity, and a buy back of excess electricity only at the current 'spot price' of the open market).
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 07 May 2017, 15:02:26

https://www.psfk.com/2016/08/plastic-wi ... homes.html

"There are a total of 54 leaf turbines on the existing model. As the wind blows, it can capture as much as 5.4 kilowatts of energy at a time. If it continually captures that much energy, the wind trees can produce around 2,400 kWh of energy annually. That’s about half the amount of energy used in a typical French household in a year. Getting two of these trees in a single backyard would take care of all the home’s energy needs."

"For both delivery and installation, a single wind tree costs about €49,500 (about $56,000), a fraction of the cost for installation and delivery of solar panels. It’s estimated that a single turbine could entirely power a small company for a full year."


It's interesting how similar (and out of the reach of practicality) such green energy solutions are.

For example, I was excited about the idea of the Tesla solar tiles. The idea of installing them once and being done with it and them supposedly being super durable really appealed to me.

But then the punch-line. That the tiles would cost roughly 10 to 20 times what a normal asphalt shingles would cost.

Or, round numbers, I would have to spend about $100,000 to shingle my roof on my little ranch with a roughly 1200 SF floorplan, excluding the half basement.

Which is ABSURD, unless the roof can also fully maintain my house, my yard, my car, and preferably do my taxes (which so far, I haven't seen Tesla claiming).
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Sun 07 May 2017, 19:22:01

ROCKMAN wrote:And the punchline to this sick joke:

"For both delivery and installation, a single wind tree costs about €49,500 (about $56,000), a fraction of the cost for installation and delivery of solar panels. It’s estimated that a single turbine could entirely power a small company for a full year."

That is funny. But they neglect to mention that the "fraction" of the cost will be about four and a quarter times the cost of the panels. There is a fraction in there, I guess.
I guess that is what they call fake news from the MSM.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 07 May 2017, 22:09:53

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Or, round numbers, I would have to spend about $100,000 to shingle my roof on my little ranch with a roughly 1200 SF floorplan, excluding the half basement.


Yeah, the way Tesla is designing the tiles nullifies the recent trend of solar cell prices tanking. I think Tesla has overstated the importance of solving the "they're ugly" argument because there's plenty of solar uptake going on. I see a lot of panels in my affluent area. People are just getting used to the look of panels bolted on the roof. He's just taken something that has reached true commodity prices and pumped it back up into something premium.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby tita » Tue 23 May 2017, 08:42:14

ROCKMAN wrote:Here you go: the leading wind power scam of the year IMHO. Just saw it on a net work TV show. I suspect no one at CBS realized they were assisting a fraud.
(..)
And the punchline to this sick joke:

"For both delivery and installation, a single wind tree costs about €49,500 (about $56,000), a fraction of the cost for installation and delivery of solar panels. It’s estimated that a single turbine could entirely power a small company for a full year."

In France/Switzerland, quite a lot of newspapers related this story. This was shiny, green, full of promises... The designers even got 6 innovations prices! Enough to attract brainless medias in search of sensational green energy. But of course, this was bullshit all along. No scientific studies, just a stupid idea and a lot of marketing. Now, the firm is in bankruptcy, and the project is down the toilet.

Still, I found a marketing image from this wind tree:
Image

Which is a bit relatable to the way Tesla advertise it's roof shingles:
Image

And yeah, they try to sell something to the rich romantic "bobos" in search of a green way of life with comfort.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 25 May 2017, 02:23:48

Tesla led the SF Bay Area news tonight. They had a worker shortage and an order backlog, and first asked, then told assembly line workers that they had to work extra hours. Workers were frequently so fatigued that they slept on the grass lawn before driving home. The accident rate jumped up to 31% above the auto industry standard, with serious accidents 50% higher. This happened about five months ago.

After initial resistance against hiring more workers, Tesla caved and did so, deciding it was better to take the hit on the bottom line profit than to kill and injure people. ("Profit" really isn't the right word, they simply decided it would be more prudent to lose money more quickly.)

Today's news was that safety has only improved modestly and many employees are angry and speaking out on camera. Add to that the agitation for Tesla's German workers to join the union, and another distinction between Tesla and conventional auto manufacturers is seemingly gone.

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/05/24/tesla-worker-report-factory-less-safe-than-other-automakers/

http://fortune.com/2017/04/26/tesla-unrest-grohmann/

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