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Making Tesla profitable?

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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Wed 25 Jan 2017, 07:01:06

There would be no need for street lights, or even lanes in the road. A computer would handle all the traffic control thru telemetry with the pods.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby EdwinSm » Thu 26 Jan 2017, 05:47:10

It seems that Tesla is looking to build a giga-factory somewhere in Europe (I think they announced the plans at least last summer).

Finland is just one of the countries looking to temp Tesla to come to them.
See: http://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/ministry_vaasa_competing_for_tesla_gigafactory_in_finland/9423510

I wonder how this all plays with building industrial capacity in the USA - will firms just build for the local market and not for export?
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby phaster » Thu 26 Jan 2017, 10:52:25

baha wrote:I do like the little three wheeler but where I live I would be crushed by a tractor :(

I like to dream too...what if there were big parking lots on the edge of town with solar canopies and chargers. You park your Tesla there and climb in a person pod to go into town. They are self driving and that's all there is in town. No fear of being crushed. And when your done shopping you go back to the fully charged car and drive to your rural home. Just a possibility...NC State has already installed the first demo system.
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/pl ... commuters/

But ditch the rails and causeways, this needs to be free roaming.


One of my thoughts pushing me toward putting a wager down on Arcimoto, is aside from being a mode of transportation that looks like fun, the vision of the company founder is to make these vehicles autonomous.

If and that's a big IF, everything works out the product will be exactly what the public is demanding say five years hence

we are on this site because we all agree to some extent that oil is a finite resource, and burning fossil fuels we know contributes CO2 to the atmosphere which in turn affects the global climate

I'm guessing with trump pushing for an agenda for increased domestic production, there is going to be a convergence of sorts between global climate change and the realization peoples consumption habits have direct implications on the environment

Yeah right now SUVs are fashionable and the trend is more people are moving to large urban centers (note these trends apply not only to the USA but China as well)

Back in high school physics one thing I first learned about is the Pauli Exclusion Principle (No two electrons in an atom can have identical quantum numbers), applying this idea in the real world means when large masses of people in urban areas all drive SUVs there's going to be traffic jams!!!

Eventually people are going to wake up and realize it's inefficient (from a cost and environmental standpoint) to drive large vehicles like SUVs that have internal combustion engines in an urban area

http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-electri ... 1484488803
I'm 100% sure that unsustainable conspicuous consumption & economic mismanagement will result with a proverbial hell on earth! But the damage can be reversed if we acknowledge the problem, then use the scientific method to fix the problem.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby EdwinSm » Mon 03 Apr 2017, 01:51:19

A 70% rise in car production sounds a lot, but the overall numbers 25 000 in first quarter still sound like a drop in the barrel.

BBC wrote:In a record quarter, Tesla delivered just over 25,000 cars in the first three months of the year.

The electric car maker said that was a 70% rise on the same period of 2016.

It is a rebound for the US company after production problems late last year resulted in a 9% fall in deliveries in the fourth quarter.......

Last week China's Tencent Holdings bought a 5% stake in Tesla for almost $1.8bn.

That was a boost for the company which has been investing heavily in raising production and faces an expensive year, with the launch of the new Model 3......

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-39474559
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Mon 03 Apr 2017, 10:44:32

It may not seem like much, but the market likes it. The stock price just passed their all time high. Larger market cap than Ford. Whatever that means...In 9 months my investment has grown by 50%

I can't wait for the Model 3 to come out. After the first 300,000 are delivered and my stock is out of site I will buy my wife one to celebrate :)
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 03 Apr 2017, 12:36:17

baha - Since Tesla doesn't dividends you haven't made a $1 profit...yet. The gain is nice, of course. But at what point/price will you sell in order to monetize your profit?
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Mon 03 Apr 2017, 13:49:17

At the point I need the money :) I could take a profit now...but let it ride.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 03 Apr 2017, 14:03:00

baha wrote:
I can't wait for the Model 3 to come out. After the first 300,000 are delivered and my stock is out of site I will buy my wife one to celebrate :)


There's an old market saying: Buy on the rumor….sell on the news.

Don't be surprised if Tesla stock falls when the Model 3 is finally delivered. Its funny, but stocks that aren't making a profit but promise the moon sometimes go up and up until the product is actually on the market---and only then does the stock get reevaluated and repriced using normal economic metrics. If this happens, the lack of profits at Tesla will become a big negative for the stock price.

Good Luck!
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Mon 03 Apr 2017, 20:14:11

As I said before I only invested as much as I am willing to lose. I have been very conservative by not buying more on the dips. I am in this for the long term and it is about more than money.

I am an Idealist. When I make make up my mind that things should be a certain way I do everything I can to make it happen. My mother and I had heated debates about CC and FF's and of course I always lost :( But when she died I immediately sold my 1/4 of the XOM stock to remove the bad taste in my mouth. I called her advisor and said sell, he lectured me about dividends and I told him I didn't want any part of their dirty money.
My firm belief is that if we don't move away from FF's ASAP money will have no meaning because it will be all about survival. And I can do that! If we do move away it will be into renewables and I will profit not only from my investments but also my position in the industry.

I am trying to set myself up to go either way :)
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Mon 03 Apr 2017, 20:51:52

I guess what I am saying is, if the FF'ed, JIT, never stop growing, always faster economy does survive...I don't want any part of it.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Wed 05 Apr 2017, 11:41:22

Believe it or not, you have the choice over what to do with your money, and more importantly, your time. Do you want to contribute to BAU while it sucks you dry? Or do you want to strike out on you're own and make the world come around to you? Like Elon...

If you live by your values, they will be returned to you. If you let TPTB push you along, you get what you deserve...to be pushed right over the cliff.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 05 Apr 2017, 12:14:29

Don't hang on too long. I "invested" $7500 in the Cape Wind offshore wind farm off Cape Cod in 2007, after Obama called it a "shovel ready" project. I was not just in a tree-hugging mood, either, we have 3 acres of Pine Forest on Nantucket where the Mother-In-Law lives.

Then the unexpected happened. The powerful Kennedy-Shriver clan opposed Cape Wind, making an alliance with (of all unlikely people) the arch-Republican Koch Brothers, who owned the coal contracts for the Cape Cod power plants. Talk about strange bedfellows!

The damage is done. Litigation costs have added (so far) about 53 cents per KWh. Construction has never began after 10 years, and probably never will. If it ever does, that will be some expensive electricity.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Wed 05 Apr 2017, 13:00:05

Thanks KJ,
An example of the lack of vision of TPTB. Our current environment is not really helping my cause and I may end up destitute :) But I have to do what 'ME' tells me is the right thing. My mom doesn't get a say anymore :(

I think Planty is probably right. I will watch the build up to the release of the model 3 and sell some when I think it is maxxed. Just to cover some of my initial investment. Then, after the delivery is delayed, and the stock falls, I will buy back in :)
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Squilliam » Wed 05 Apr 2017, 18:01:48

I would take the money. There is no way that Tesla is realistically more valuable a company than Ford. Take the money and buy a Tesla if you want!
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 05 Apr 2017, 22:49:34

Squilliam wrote:I would take the money. There is no way that Tesla is realistically more valuable a company than Ford. Take the money and buy a Tesla if you want!

Markets are forward-looking (right or wrong).

The correct question is "How realistic is it to assume Tesla will be more valuable than Ford in time frame 'X'?"

Also, profit margins matter, so you can't assume that Tesla will need to sell 6 million plus cars like Ford does to reach Ford's profits.

I don't know what the right answer is, but it certainly isn't 0% chance (as your "there is no way" implies).

There are a lot of moving parts and a lot of complexity here. For example, if Tesla is "reasonably" successful in getting to 500,000 units around 2018, and the Model 3 doesn't have big quality problems and it manages to keep up with service requests, then Tesla stock owners will likely be elated and bid the stock up significantly. (Note: lots of ifs there. I think quality and repair service are both critical for the Model 3 because unlike, say, rich model X owners, middle class people need to be able to rely on their car to get to work, etc.)

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/busine ... /23852189/

https://www.statista.com/statistics/380 ... s-of-ford/

Round numbers, Ford was making about $650 a car in 2015, per the above article. Ford's 2016 sales were 6.65 million vehicles. (I get about $690 a car from their financials for full year 2016, but don't have an article link to verify that).

So, either people think Tesla sales will increase a lot after they hit their 500Kish projection around 2018, that their profits will be much bigger per car than Ford's, or both.

Now, since we collectively can't reliably come close to predicting the price of oil over the next year, for any year -- what are the odds we (as stock pickers) could come close to getting the pieces/parts of the Tesla picture right?

And you have a whole range of opinions on the stock, of course. From strident bears to super-bulls, and with projections that vary all over the map. And it's all (with varying levels of sophistication) guess-work, at least in every article I've read.

Disclosure: I have no financial interest in TSLA, nor do I have any plans to. I stay far away from such risky stocks.

...

With the disclosure above in mind:

My personal view is that Tesla will likely end up having some success. However, by the time they get big, they'll have LOTS more competition from better funded, very experienced and very efficient car makers. And they'll have to sell more stock to fund their growth, for years yet (which dilutes the current stock).

Now, will they have enough success to justify the current price? I HAVE NO IDEA.

This is just a high level SWAG. Aside from owning a car, I know little of the auto industry and never invested in it. Imagine all the complexity of the calculations for serious auto analysts. Just a WEE bit more thought than "Tesla rocks!" fanbois, or "Tesla sucks!" bears, methinks.

I'm smart enough to have a clue at times when I'd be in way over my head, and thus shy away betting on a stock like TSLA. Not smart enough to get wildly rich, but hopefully not dumb enough to bankrupt myself. :lol:
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Squilliam » Wed 05 Apr 2017, 23:58:37

O -- It depends on whether you believe the hype. I think there is far too much exhuberance attached to the stock, so its long term prospects in my mind won't match the current stock price. The car maker is brilliant though, and with the mindshare it has -- the Apple of car makers -- it is worth a considerable amount. I just wouldn't say it had proved that level of worth.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Thu 06 Apr 2017, 06:28:59

To me it is all about bringing on the next paradigm. It doesn't matter whether it is CC or Peak Oil that forces us to move on, we will eventually move on. Those of us that are left!

When that happens I will be watching while everyone else is scrambling to catch up.

I have put hands on (not driven) every electric and hybrid car available. I have inspected them in detail at car shows. The cars from the big auto makers look like every other car you have ever seen. Busy, complicated, and hard to work on. The Tesla looks like a carriage. There are no exposed mechanicals and yet remove a cover and there it all is clean and tidy (that is the kind of work I do). The comparison is night and day.

The big automakers expect maintenance to be done in a big shop where they can disassemble all day long and spread it all over the ground while charging you big bucks... Tesla will fix it in your driveway simply by unplugging the bad component and plugging in a new one. More like a computer than a car. The big three (or more) have not yet embraced the KISS principle. Tesla has...

I know for a fact that once they work the bugs out electric vehicles will be far superior to ICE powered. There is no guaranty it will happen in my lifetime but I will rest assured that I pushed as hard as I could.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Thu 06 Apr 2017, 06:59:15

I should mention, the BMW electric is the only one that can hold a candle to a Tesla. It's also a good looking car :)
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby baha » Sat 15 Apr 2017, 08:38:05

Hey Folks,
Just so you know I don't sit around waiting for it...

It occurred to me that as Tesla rolls out the Model 3 they will also be building a world wide service network. They will need service technicians and shops in all areas of the country. So I looked at the Tesla website and sure enough they are hiring hundreds of people all over the world.

As you know my experience with electricity, autos, and service work directly applies to what they are looking for. Turns out there is a service facility in Charlotte NC and they have an opening for a service technician. Did I mention how Mother Earth smiles on me these days :) I updated my resume, wrote a killer cover letter, and applied for the job...wish me luck :)

I'm not sure I would leave the cushy job I have now, but just an interview would be exciting. But a full time service technician for Tesla would be big money.

I may never hear from them but it was fun just to apply.
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Re: Making Tesla profitable?

Unread postby Cottager » Sat 15 Apr 2017, 09:20:58

baha wrote:Hey Folks,
Just so you know I don't sit around waiting for it...

It occurred to me that as Tesla rolls out the Model 3 they will also be building a world wide service network. They will need service technicians and shops in all areas of the country. So I looked at the Tesla website and sure enough they are hiring hundreds of people all over the world.

As you know my experience with electricity, autos, and service work directly applies to what they are looking for. Turns out there is a service facility in Charlotte NC and they have an opening for a service technician. Did I mention how Mother Earth smiles on me these days :) I updated my resume, wrote a killer cover letter, and applied for the job...wish me luck :)

I'm not sure I would leave the cushy job I have now, but just an interview would be exciting. But a full time service technician for Tesla would be big money.

I may never hear from them but it was fun just to apply.


Good luck, but if they are not making profit - then they will pay you money stolen from some sheeple investors, for example it can be money from your grandma' pension fund.
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