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M King Hubbert's 1956 Paper That Started It All

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

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Re: How many of you have read King Hubbert's original 1956 p

Unread postby BigTex » Sat 23 Feb 2008, 14:07:26

Kingcoal wrote:I remember reading it back in '04 after discovering the dieoff.org and peakoil.net websites. After that, I discovered this website. The paper is designed for the layman and seeks to inform him of a couple of key points:

1. We don't "produce" oil; the earth manufactured it over hundreds of millions of years. We just stick straws in the ground and liberate it.

2. Most of the oil in a given reservoir is for all practical purposes, unrecoverable.

3. The rate of production increase at the time is unsustainable.

4. Finally, he makes his famous predictions. Oil production in the lower 48 would peak in 1970, which came true. World oil production would peak in the late 1990's, which evidentially didn't happen; however if Hubert were alive today, I think he would be shocked at what lengths we've gone to produce as much oil as possible.

I believe that light sweet has peaked worldwide.


Some of Simmons' presentations remind me a little of Hubbert's paper.
:)
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Re: How many of you have read King Hubbert's original 1956 p

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Sat 23 Feb 2008, 14:17:01

I didn't want to do this...but my idiotic post left me no choice.

I was pissed off when I wrote that post. I got back from a party last night in a horrible mood. I was talking to this girl for at least half an hour and then a friend of mine starts talking to her and she lost all interest in me. Actually, she turned away mid sentence and never looked at me again.

Later on she started giving one of those "working class hero" bullshit remarks when she lives in a 6000 sqft mansion in some upscale suburb of New York and her dad earns 7 figures. She said, "I'm not rich...blah blah blah...I mean, my best friend's dad makes 8 figures...blah blah" What a selfish greedy bitch! I'm glad she lost interest in me so quickly, I wouldn't want to date someone that clueless.

Now do you see why I think we need a rule against drinking and forum posting?

And now I've ruined this thread. :(
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Re: How many of you have read King Hubbert's original 1956 p

Unread postby BigTex » Sat 23 Feb 2008, 14:21:44

Tyler_JC wrote:I didn't want to do this...but my idiotic post left me no choice.

I was pissed off when I wrote that post. I got back from a party last night in a horrible mood. I was talking to this girl for at least half an hour and then a friend of mine starts talking to her and she lost all interest in me. Actually, she turned away mid sentence and never looked at me again.

Later on she started giving one of those "working class hero" bullshit remarks when she lives in a 6000 sqft mansion in some upscale suburb of New York and her dad earns 7 figures. She said, "I'm not rich...blah blah blah...I mean, my best friend's dad makes 8 figures...blah blah" What a selfish greedy bitch! I'm glad she lost interest in me so quickly, I wouldn't want to date someone that clueless.

Now do you see why I think we need a rule against drinking and forum posting?

And now I've ruined this thread. :(


You should have slipped a copy of Hubbert's paper into her Fendi bag.
:)
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Re: How many of you have read King Hubbert's original 1956 p

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Sat 23 Feb 2008, 14:23:07

I should have slipped in a hand grenade...without the pin.

[should I split out my rambling? I'm being unfair to the creator of this thread]
Last edited by Tyler_JC on Sat 23 Feb 2008, 14:26:31, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: How many of you have read King Hubbert's original 1956 p

Unread postby BigTex » Sat 23 Feb 2008, 14:25:57

Tyler_JC wrote:I should have slipped in a hand grenade...without the pin.


Was she like one of those girls in White Chicks?
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Re: How many of you have read King Hubbert's original 1956 p

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Sat 23 Feb 2008, 14:29:01

BigTex wrote:
Tyler_JC wrote:I should have slipped in a hand grenade...without the pin.


Was she like one of those girls in White Chicks?


Nope, she wasn't nearly that attractive. I'd give her a 7 out of 10 but it was getting late and I was getting desperate.
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Re: How many of you have read King Hubbert's original 1956 p

Unread postby BigTex » Sat 23 Feb 2008, 15:57:08

Wow. She wasn't even this attractive?

Image
:)
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Re: How many of you have read King Hubbert's original 1956 p

Unread postby eastbay » Sat 23 Feb 2008, 16:32:17

The Hubbert paper is really a very good read and should be on the short yet ever-expanding list of any peakist's mandatory reading.

Plus it's fairly short and historically important. The optimism (if I'm reading it right) about nuclear energy replacing oil is interesting.

I like reading papers written in the crooked old typewriter font.
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Re: How many of you have read King Hubbert's original 1956 p

Unread postby roccman » Sat 23 Feb 2008, 18:30:23

Tyler_JC wrote: Actually, she turned away mid sentence and never looked at me again.


That must have left a mark.

I feel your pain bro...
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Re: How many of you have read King Hubbert's original 1956 p

Unread postby Lighthouse » Sat 23 Feb 2008, 18:43:11

roccman wrote:
Tyler_JC wrote: Actually, she turned away mid sentence and never looked at me again.


That must have left a mark.

I feel your pain bro...


He must know, happens to roccman all the time ....
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Re: How many of you have read King Hubbert's original 1956 p

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Sat 23 Feb 2008, 19:07:14

I really shouldn't broadcast emotions on this forum, especially when it means hijacking threads. :oops:
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Re: How many of you have read King Hubbert's original 1956 p

Unread postby Lighthouse » Sat 23 Feb 2008, 19:12:15

Tyler_JC wrote:I really shouldn't broadcast emotions on this forum, especially when it means hijacking threads. :oops:


That's OK Tyler. In 2006 postings here were usually Peak Oil related. Since then every single peak oil related thread (if there was one now and then) has been "offtracked" and all other threads have not much to do with realty either ...

But I like it here. It's fun and entertaining.
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Re: How many of you have read King Hubbert's original 1956 p

Unread postby roccman » Sat 23 Feb 2008, 19:17:35

Lighthouse wrote:
roccman wrote:
Tyler_JC wrote: Actually, she turned away mid sentence and never looked at me again.


That must have left a mark.

I feel your pain bro...


He must know, happens to roccman all the time ....


Naw - not really...HS was a little awkward...but then it was HS...the Marines and College...what a complete drunk fest...can't remember half the bitches I met.

Today ...I am with my one true love. All the rest combine could not hold a candle to her...and I look forward to walking with her along the Road to Olduvai.

Life's very good.
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Re: How many of you have read King Hubbert's original 1956 p

Unread postby Lighthouse » Sat 23 Feb 2008, 19:24:05

roccman wrote:Naw - not really...HS was a little awkward...but then it was HS...the Marines and College...what a complete drunk fest...can't remember half the bitches I met.

Today ...I am with my one true love. All the rest combine could not hold a candle to her...and I look forward to walking with her along the Road to Olduvai.

Life's very good.


Marines and College :lol: You are a funny man roccman, I'll give you that.

Like you have seen the inside of a college. I would surprised if you even have finished HS. The only Marine you have seen was in the 4th of July parade last year.

please click here roccman and listen ...
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Re: How many of you have read King Hubbert's original 1956 p

Unread postby roccman » Sat 23 Feb 2008, 19:52:55

Lighthouse wrote:
roccman wrote:Naw - not really...HS was a little awkward...but then it was HS...the Marines and College...what a complete drunk fest...can't remember half the bitches I met.

Today ...I am with my one true love. All the rest combine could not hold a candle to her...and I look forward to walking with her along the Road to Olduvai.

Life's very good.


Marines and College :lol: You are a funny man roccman, I'll give you that.

Like you have seen the inside of a college. I would surprised if you even have finished HS. The only Marine you have seen was in the 4th of July parade last year.

please click here roccman and listen ...


Really bro...

care to stick your fingers in my wounds thomas?
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Re: How many of you have read King Hubbert's original 1956 p

Unread postby FreddyH » Sat 23 Feb 2008, 20:01:42

I've been on the Net since 1987. But it was Netscape's introduction of url friendly names within browser software rather than typing in server IP's that made the web user friendly and popular in 1995.

Neither Netscape nor Al Gore invented the wwweb.

Same with Hubbert. His contribution allowed the avg person to visualize Peak Oil via his bell curve presentation. But prior to his charting, geologists and agencies were already making regular estimates of URR and/or reserves. The avg URR in 1956 sans Hubbert was 652-Gb and providers included the org's we know today as API, IHS, USGS & OGJ. There were a cornucopia of one shot wonders in the public domain as well.

By applying R/P or resource/P ratios, the concept of a finite volume of recoverable all liquids and thus a limited production profile was well understood but mostly only by those in the sector. Very few had attempted to reconcile annual production with known URR estimates of that time to come up with Peak Rates or Peak Dates.

By 1998, IEA and many others were projecting Peak Oil Dates on a regular basis. EIA was a rather late piler-on to the Peak Oil game with its first mass exposure effort in Y2k.
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Re: How many of you have read King Hubbert's original 1956 p

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Sat 23 Feb 2008, 20:45:11

Lighthouse,

Lay off Roccman...
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Re: How many of you have read King Hubbert's original 1956 p

Unread postby BigTex » Sun 24 Feb 2008, 00:07:25

Hubbert's obvious optimism about nuclear is interesting, I agree.

It's funny that no one considers this part of his forecast to be especially insightful (or even seems to be aware of it).

Peak oil with a suitable replacement is a whole different matter from peak oil with nothing but doom to replace it with.
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Re: How many of you have read King Hubbert's original 1956 p

Unread postby eastbay » Sun 24 Feb 2008, 00:54:34

It's funny that no one considers this part of his forecast to be especially insightful (or even seems to be aware of it).

Peak oil with a suitable replacement is a whole different matter from peak oil with nothing but doom to replace it with.


Yup. He must have felt that those bell curves of his weren't anything to be fearful of or concerned with. 50 years ago nuclear power was just coming along in it's infancy and the west was filled with wonder at its potential. Some still are. Not the earth, however.
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Re: How many of you have read King Hubbert's original 1956 p

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Sun 24 Feb 2008, 14:46:10

I read it a while ago, have it linked on my blog.

As far as I could tell, he was trying to get people to pay attention, because the oil companies needed to prepare for things to be different. Seems to have worked; US oil companies are now all over the world, still making money. :lol: :roll:
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