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Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 03 Jul 2016, 08:47:43

Whatever wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Whatever wrote:I guess the Korowicz paper is *WAY* too scary for people here to talk about.


I would be happy to talk about it. Let me know when you redo the entropy model to encompass the history of the industry it purports to predict, using the real price of oil.

Until then, models using cherry picked data and time frames, and nominal prices across even more limited time frames, are just silly to even discuss. This one, and your understanding of it, can't get through a first level technical review.

Do better next time, if you want to be taken seriously.

Yo, Adam. Knock off the condescending sh*t. What you are doing is trolling.


Yo Whatever. Knock off the designed ignorance to avoid the topic, that being your inability to show a first order relationship at all, while pretending to have one, and being embarrassed about how easily it is noticed.

Whatever wrote:I don't have time for this crap.
---Futilitist 8)


Yes, it can be a pain to actually demonstrate your assertion when it doesn't work, I understand. I recommend developing a better assertion next time, one that doesn't unravel when someone tugs at the first loose thread.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 03 Jul 2016, 12:02:23

Whatever has this tendency to look for the grand unification theory, as he calls it. He places all his faith in a theory (ETP) or a paper (Korowicz). The world is not that predictable and Korowicz or the Hills group guy are not Nostradamus. They're just schmucks with opinions like you or me. Maybe they have higher IQs, but they do not have superhuman clairvoyance. That doesn't mean nothing they're saying is useful, but it's only PART (again, PART) of coming to any full understanding of the issue. It is not the whole enchilada.

Yes, EROEI matters. It does not matter to the extent ETP proposes. Yes, there is fragility in BAU. But this fragility probably will not lead to the sorts of worst-case-scanario cascading failures that the Korowicz paper thinks are so likely, at least not in the short-run.

I'll go further...

Debt matters. But that probably doesn't mean the Peter Schiff (or Monte) debt-bomb scenario will happen, or that it will happen on X or Y date because of (fill in the blanks canary in the coal-mine).

War matters. That doesn't mean the tensions with Russia or NK will lead to WWIII.

AGW matters. That doesn't necessarily mean Cid's 5-10 years to die-off is gonna happen.

The problem is people keep thinking in black and white. If you don't believe in the worst case scenario, you're a cornie. In all of these cases I conceded that these concerns are valid. Yes, they ARE valid. I am not disregarding them. What I have a problem with is the need to proceed from feeling like these things are a genuine concern all the way over to visions of TEOTAWKI that conveniently falls within the narrow near-term time-frame known as "NIGH" that is necessary for the human-mind to maintain a 24/7 sense of fight-or-flight anxiety.

The fuel which drives doomers to flog these issues, no matter what the resistance, is that sense of "NIGH". That's what makes them come across as chicken little, Paul Revere, Charlton Heston in Soylent Green, etc... I get that "uh, oh, I just figured out we're f*cked so I better go tell everyone else the bad news" feeling. I've been there. I'm kind of gone beyond the need to pass out red-pills. I tried doing it with my own family with little impact. Again, at the end of the day, everyone has to keep getting up each morning, putting on our pants, and trudging off to work.

If doom does anything good, it provides a change of pace, a break from the mundane. And I know some people are looking forward to it for one reason or another. Maybe they want to see the old order torn down. Maybe they just want to get it over with so they can stop waiting for the other shoe to fall. Whatever it is, it comes out in their participating in forums like this and the sport of trying to tilt people over to their position.

I stopped feeling that anything I have to offer on this issue will make any positive difference some time ago. I post here really more out of boredom than anything else, and let's face it, most of the active posters I would never want to hang out with in real life. So the social aspects are at best masochistic.

I think it's the same with posters like Sixstrings who himself admitted to not even ever being a doomer. There are at best maybe 2-3 posters here who are trying to have a genuine debate on the associated issues. Everyone else here is just kind of screwing around for the same reason someone might screw around on a forum dedicated to Beonce' or Justin Bieber. I just wish people would finally cop to it and stop taking themselves so seriously.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby Whatever » Sun 03 Jul 2016, 17:57:29

ennui2 wrote:Whatever has this tendency to look for the grand unification theory, as he calls it. He places all his faith in a theory (ETP) or a paper (Korowicz).

I trust science and logic.

ennui2 wrote:The world is not that predictable and Korowicz or the Hills group guy are not Nostradamus. They're just schmucks with opinions like you or me.

BWHill does not have a very high opinion of you:

BWHill wrote:
ennui2 wrote:Not science. Dogma masquerading as science.

The entropy rate balance equation for control volumes is not science??

Have you been educationally challenged all of your life?? You have just managed to insult some of the greatest minds in physics that the world has seen for the last 200 years. You're not qualified to carry out Clausius's chamber pot. If ignorance is bliss -- you must be in heaven!

ennui2 wrote:Maybe they have higher IQs, but they do not have superhuman clairvoyance.

They do have higher IQs, and what they do must seem like superhuman clairvoyance to you. But in the case of the Etp model, it's just applied physics.

ennui2 wrote:That doesn't mean nothing they're saying is useful, but it's only PART (again, PART) of coming to any full understanding of the issue. It is not the whole enchilada.

Yes, EROEI matters. It does not matter to the extent ETP proposes. Yes, there is fragility in BAU. But this fragility probably will not lead to the sorts of worst-case-scanario cascading failures that the Korowicz paper thinks are so likely, at least not in the short-run.

And all this is based on what? You don't understand the physics behind the Etp model and you haven't come up with a convincing argument against the Korowicz paper.

ennui2 wrote:I'll go further...

Why?



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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 04 Jul 2016, 14:56:48

Whatever wrote:
ennui2 wrote:Whatever has this tendency to look for the grand unification theory, as he calls it. He places all his faith in a theory (ETP) or a paper (Korowicz).

I trust science and logic.


Then go learn some, and you will understand why your current defense of a bad idea doesn't work.

But if there is one thing zealots have in common (the topic of the zealotry doesn't matter) is that they BELIEVE. Science and logic are not required, even though some, as you have just done, will pretend it supports their position. But that is irrelevant. Only your belief in your idea matters. You've proven this by not being able to even argue its basis.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby ennui2 » Mon 04 Jul 2016, 21:15:20

Whatever wrote:BWHill does not have a very high opinion of you


Like I'm supposed to care? I mean, you're retired, right? Sometimes you come across like an 8 year old who is infatuated with a role-model. PStarr too the way he wanted to rush to defend the "honor" of people he felt I was besmirching. I mean, come on, here. We're adults. I have no need to seek anyone's personal stamp of approval, nor do I feel obligated to bow and curtsy for people I don't feel deserve to be put on pedestals.

Whatever wrote:you haven't come up with a convincing argument against the Korowicz paper.


Do you understand what proving a negative is????? It's a classic logical fallacy. The above statement is an appeal for us to prove a negative. That's the crux of your beef. That the default viewpoint is that the Korowicz paper is true until proven false. It's actually the reverse. Due to Occam's Razor, extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof.

Saying that the store shelves will be bare within days and the zombie hordes will go rampaging is an extraordinary claim. All fast-crash scenarios are extraordinary claims. The more specific the claim (like setting a date in the immediate future, otherwise known as nigh, the more extraordinary the claims are, and the higher the burden of proof.

Do you know how many really bright people have been wrong before? How many scientists doubted the existence of the Higgs boson or gravity waves? Those people have much higher IQs than you or me, and yet they were wrong. I want to be careful going down this avenue because it's the same sort of track used by AGW deniers. But my point is that just because one individual or a small minority of intelligentsia says something, I'm not going to just rubber-stamp it.

How about Nate Silver? He was hoisted up as a modern Nostradamus after the 2008 election. Here's what he has to say lately.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how ... ald-trump/

And that guy is a statistician who tries to trust the numbers and not just going on hunches, just like your fabled Hills Group.

Do you finally get what I'm saying? There's no humility in this analysis. No concession to possibly being wrong. More often than not that leads to Dewey vs. Truman moments.

In the case of the doomersphere, THAT is why The Oil Drum (which once seemed just as authoritative and academic as any scientific source) is gone and why this site only has a handful of posters, most of them whackos of some stripe.

I need to see things start to TREND. I saw things TRENDING with the real-estate market before the crash hit, for instance. And things trended well over a decade ago with climate science. Things that are patently obvious do not remain fringe forever, even inconvenient truths like limits to growth. But for it to be buried on a website that looks like it was designed in 1996 or in some paper from 4+ years ago ain't cuttin' it. And BTW, going out and cherry picking articles saying we're gonna go into a recession doesn't cut it either. A recession != doom. I've lived through a few of them already without having to resort to long pork. And if you find doom, I'm going to scrutinize the source. Having a bunch of fringe whackos or people flogging books or precious metals doesn't cut it either. It has to percolate up through MSM.

P.S. Nate Silver's humility here is worth reading:

When those hypotheses fail, you should re-evaluate the evidence before moving on to the next subject. The distinguishing feature of the scientific method is not that it always gets the answer right, but that it fails forward by learning from its mistakes.


How often do you ever read mea culpas like this on the internet? This is the sort of stuff I need to see people do to earn my respect. They don't have to be right all the time. They have to be willing to cop to being wrong and explain how they are adjusting their methodology appropriately.

This introspection is something the dwindling number of hardcore doomers have YET to do. They have sought ways to double-down on their dogmas but have not admitted to being wrong. Someone like Gail is the poster-child for that, for instance. At the ground level, unrepentant doomers like PStarr fall into that category of the proverbial unexamined life that isn't worth living.

Anyone plowing through this forum is going to be faced with increasingly obstinate doomers who are immune from anything approaching reason. People like Starving Lion who lives within his own doomer reality distortion field in which a Hobbesian collapse is already now all around us, no matter where we are. I have no more patience for such idiocy, such lack of nuance and lack of objectivity.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Why Oil Prices Could Dive

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 26 Jan 2018, 12:35:03


WTI briefly touched $65 per barrel after the EIA reported a surprise drawdown in inventories — the highest price since late 2014. Although the rally hit some stumbling blocks in recent days, prices remain at multi-year highs. However, absent further bullish news, the downside risk looms large. One of the most acute threats to prices is the exorbitant positioning by hedge funds and other money managers, who have staked out record net longs in the oil futures market. With everyone piling into one side of the bet, there’s little room left on the upside. This kind of lopsided positioning has consistently ended with a rush for the exits, setting off a sudden — and often sharp — price correction. Mad Money’s Jim Cramer spoke about the problem on Tuesday on CNBC. “As of last week, large speculators were holding the single largest


Why Oil Prices Could Dive
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Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 27 Jan 2018, 03:55:33

Sure the paper traders could dive out of oil in an attempt to make a quicker buck, but at this point the fundamentals are supporting the higher prices. We no longer have massive world wide stockpiled crude oil, all those tankers that were sitting full of cargo at anchor have been offloaded at a reasonable profit and the land tanks have been drained a fair way from peak levels in mid 2016.

If you only look at the paper trades that go on which are not connected to physical oil sure, anything can happen to the price. But when you look at the actual physical market where supply has been restricted and demand has continued to grow the price is not teetering on collapse.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 29 Jan 2018, 17:09:15

Well then Tanada according to classical supply/demand economics as well as classical peak oil theory, the oil price should shoot up.
If it begins once again a downward trend, then something strange must be happening.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 29 Jan 2018, 20:08:08

Not at all. There are a multitude of oil sources and a multitude of technologies to exploit them. When a modest increase in crude prices makes a formerly marginal technology profitable again, a production surge, followed by a modest glut and depressed prices follows. Then as that technology peaks and declines, the stage is set for the next peak due to another production tech.

Indeed this is normal and expected behavior for such a diversified oil production industry. These "jagged peaks" in the oil production curve were predicted by Kunstler and simply prove that the basic Hubbert theory is correct. Hubbert of course had no grasp of the range of technologies we use to exploit petroleum in 2018 and beyond.

The only take away from the "jagged peaks" is that more than ever, when we reach the bottom of the bag of technological tricks, the petroleum resource is gone. The major demand for oil has always been fuels, but in the long run, I think we will miss the plastics and the myriad other petrochemicals more. One can run a vehicle on electricity, but not make fertilizer/herbicides/pesticides or plastic food packaging that way.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 30 Jan 2018, 00:39:51

onlooker wrote:Well then Tanada according to classical supply/demand economics as well as classical peak oil theory, the oil price should shoot up.
If it begins once again a downward trend, then something strange must be happening.


You mean, the same thing that happened during the peak oil of 2008? Or the non-peak oil of 2014? Funny how prices going up and down are pretty normal, and don't appear related in a given fashion to any of the classic peak oils. Huh. Not covered in the Peak Oil Bible in any chapter I can find. Must be magic.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 30 Jan 2018, 05:55:50

Funny how prices going up and down are pretty normal

Not when they they don't behave as a supply/demand balancing would dictate. Hence, my reference to Tanada's post about how the oil glut conditions seem to be abating. And combined with demand remaining strong, that should cause prices to continue to rise. Well so far so good but if they reverse to a downward trend, something odd that transcends classical theory is occurring
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby tita » Tue 30 Jan 2018, 09:06:41

KaiserJeep wrote:Not at all. There are a multitude of oil sources and a multitude of technologies to exploit them. When a modest increase in crude prices makes a formerly marginal technology profitable again, a production surge, followed by a modest glut and depressed prices follows. Then as that technology peaks and declines, the stage is set for the next peak due to another production tech.

Between 1998 and 2008, price soared, demand soared and supply couldn't increase enough to ease the price. But this indeed led to the supply growth seen after 2008 till 2015. Lots of oil fields developments were launched between 2007 and 2010 and quietly added supply in the last years. Some even have to come online. Even US supply, which is dominated now with tight oil, wouldn't be that high without the GOM, which added 500 kb/d in the last 4 years.

The incentive to use expensive technologies to reach some oil comes from the price. But the reaction of supply could take a lot of time, while demand and prices move quicker. Tight oil can react more quickly, due to the nature of the development... But like any other field, Bakken, Eagle Ford and the Permian will reach a peak of production. But due to the recent development of tight oil on a mass scale, it's quite difficult to forecast their production, and it's strongly related to the economic environment. If oil price maintain, we will get a better picture in a few years.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 30 Jan 2018, 09:29:15

onlooker wrote:And combined with demand remaining strong, that should cause prices to continue to rise. Well so far so good but if they reverse to a downward trend, something odd that transcends classical theory is occurring


Why does it have to be "something odd"? I think you're deluded into thinking that something odd is always around the bend, hence getting suckered into ETP.

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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 30 Jan 2018, 17:11:27

onlooker wrote:
Funny how prices going up and down are pretty normal

Not when they they don't behave as a supply/demand balancing would dictate.


Who says they aren't? Every price up and down in oil in my lifetime behaved as expected, within the constraints of a quaasi free market, with a few cartels and speculators thrown in, resource development cycles, all the things that cause those prices to move around.

Just because a believer BELIEVES they should be caused by some other reason doesn't mean they are.

onlooker wrote:Hence, my reference to Tanada's post about how the oil glut conditions seem to be abating.


Could be. Just as prior tight supply scenarios abated...rather than turning into the peak oil rapture event envisioned by some other believers. And both of them functioning as expected, for the given conditions.

onlooker wrote: And combined with demand remaining strong, that should cause prices to continue to rise. Well so far so good but if they reverse to a downward trend, something odd that transcends classical theory is occurring


What classical theory? Music theory? Theory that you want to believe, like the random number generator?

Feel free to contradict Adam's theory on oil markets, I dare you to find a hole in it..at any time since the beginning of the oil industry.

The cure for high oil prices is high oil prices. The cure for low oil prices is low prices.

Feel free to dispute it as the perfect representative example of classical economic theory in the industry in question.
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