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Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby Whatever » Sat 18 Jun 2016, 16:44:12

vtsnowedin wrote:Well if things are as bad as you say they are you should dig yourself a hole six feet deep by five feet long and five feet wide placing the excavated dirt above the hole so that the next rain will wash the dirt back in. Then at the opportune time you should enter the hole and crouch down in a fetal position then hyper extend your neck so you can kiss your arse goodbye. 8)

This is your answer? Seriously? What a total cop out.

If things are as bad as I say they are, you should want to know. But instead you bury your head in the sand like an ostrich. You won't accept the truth if it conflicts with your fondest hopes and dreams. You are in massive denial.

http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/upload ... e-Off1.pdf

Collectively, it is like we are passengers traveling in an unimaginably complex plane locked onto a perilous course. Our understanding of the engine and guidance system is partial, nor do we know many of the connections between them. We may want to change course by retooling the guidance system, but there’s a meaningful risk it will stall the engine, and we’ll plummet to the ground. Good risk management might argue that before repairs are done, we ensure the passengers have parachutes, but time is running out, maybe it already has.
~David Korowicz


What about trying to argue against the ideas presented in the Korowicz paper? Afraid to try?



---Futilitist 8)
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 18 Jun 2016, 16:56:11

Whatever wrote:

What about trying to argue against the ideas presented in the Korowicz paper? Afraid to try?



---Futilitist 8)

Having read portions of your other arguments on this board I can't see a useful informative discussion taking place.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby Whatever » Sat 18 Jun 2016, 17:06:20

vtsnowedin wrote:
Whatever wrote:

What about trying to argue against the ideas presented in the Korowicz paper? Afraid to try?



---Futilitist 8)

Having read portions of your other arguments on this board I can't see a useful informative discussion taking place.

Ha ha. Whatever.

Anybody else want to give it a try?



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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 18 Jun 2016, 17:10:43

vtsnowedin wrote:
ennui2 wrote:I think the net result of this is effectively an extension of the plateau of relative normalcy out for a while longer.

The problem with extending the plateau out further is that it makes the cliff that much steeper.


This assumption only applies if the amount of recoverable estimated at the beginning doesn't change. It does. Which is why you get to keep the current increase, and then it DOESN'T collapse on the far side.

Quantified by the USGS in 2012, and amounting to nearly 1/2 of the total oil produced to date, just waiting to allow this to happen.

https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/sir20155091

Same idea, from a slightly different angle, discussed by folks at the EIA.

https://www.eia.gov/workingpapers/pdf/trr.pdf

While us web denizens might not have quantified the how and why, certainly those doing research and analysis and practical applications have.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 18 Jun 2016, 17:15:31

Whatever wrote:Anybody else want to give it a try?



---Futilitist 8)


Sure. I will take on that challenge as soon as you demonstrate that, using real oil prices, your favorite first order principle model has worked across the history of oil production.

if it does, what you have been saying is worthy of further consideration. if it does not, you will have classified yourself as just another "fit any curve that fits and proclaim...DOOM!!!!" chicken little who wouldn't know a good idea, let alone a first order principle, from a hole in your head.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby Whatever » Sat 18 Jun 2016, 17:48:00

AdamB wrote:
Whatever wrote:Anybody else want to give it a try?



---Futilitist 8)


Sure. I will take on that challenge as soon as you demonstrate that, using real oil prices, your favorite first order principle model has worked across the history of oil production.

I think you are trying to change the subject, but I will humor your request anyway.

If by real oil prices you mean adjusted for inflation, then you are making a bogus argument. The Etp model takes the yearly oil production numbers, average water cut, and reservoir temperature and feeds them into the Entropy Rate Balance Equation for Control Volumes. It is a year by year iteration. The output is the yearly entropy growth rate which happens to correlate very strongly with the yearly average oil price increase. The model is sensibly back checked and verified against the ACTUAL yearly average oil price. Arbitrarily adjusting for inflation makes no sense at all. Unless you can demonstrate why inflation needs to be considered in the Etp methodology, Mr. First Order Principle, then I submit I have held up my end of the bargain. It is now time for you to take the challenge.

Please read the Korowicz paper and let me know why you think he is wrong. Thanks.

Here's that link again:

http://www.feasta.org/wp-content/upload ... e-Off1.pdf



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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby ennui2 » Sat 18 Jun 2016, 18:02:13

That paper reads like a very long Oil Drum essay.

The problem with that shit is that it sounds like it's based on reality, and hence compelling, but at the end of the day they're trying to peddle a doomy prediction:

an unprecedented and catastrophic shock could occur sometime within this decade is presented.


That's the punch-line. That's ALWAYS the punch-line to these things, like ETP predicting doom within 4 years. And this paper is from 2012 so the data is already out-of-date.

I remember The Oil Drum fearing that the Northeast, which is very natural-gas centric for electricity, would face blackouts. This was before the fracking boom, of course, but if you just read the article at the time, it seemed to make a compelling case.

The world is really too complicated a system to make these sorts of predictions. I'm not saying it can't happen, but these papers are attempting to reduce everything down to a math problem, hence writing the future in stone. It's not that simple.

That's not to say algorithms are useless, but they are really vague and probabilistic rather than definitive predictors of the future. The only one of its kind that I think hits the sweet spot is the LTG one, and even then it has several "runs" with different values plugged into the variables that come out differently.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby Whatever » Sat 18 Jun 2016, 18:32:30

ennui2 wrote:That's the punch-line. That's ALWAYS the punch-line to these things, like ETP predicting doom within 4 years. And this paper is from 2012 so the data is already out-of-date.

The Korowicz paper does not set any timelines. It is about non-linear system dynamics and what happens to the system when critical nodes fail. It explains in great detail how things are interconnected and how they will eventually break when stressed enough.

The point is that there is no way to have a slow, gradual collapse. When we collapse, it will be rapid.

I don't think you read the Korowicz paper at all.

The world is really too complicated a system to make these sorts of predictions. I'm not saying it can't happen...

I am saying that rapid collapse must eventually happen. Please read the korowicz paper and explain how the basic scenario outlined can possibly be avoided. That is the only way to actually rebut his argument. Anything else is just posturing.



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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 18 Jun 2016, 19:02:32

Whatever wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Whatever wrote:Anybody else want to give it a try?



---Futilitist 8)


Sure. I will take on that challenge as soon as you demonstrate that, using real oil prices, your favorite first order principle model has worked across the history of oil production.

I think you are trying to change the subject, but I will humor your request anyway.


Excellent.

Whatever wrote:
If by real oil prices you mean adjusted for inflation, then you are making a bogus argument.


I made no argument. Only a caveat to paying any attention to anything else you might say or reference. The value of oil during its history has always been in relation to everything else, therefore only real prices matter, not nominal. So either your claimed attempt at a first order principle correlation works, or it does not, but you can't prove that it does with nominal pricing.

Your choice.


Whatever wrote: Arbitrarily adjusting for inflation makes no sense at all. Unless you can demonstrate why inflation needs to be considered in the Etp methodology, Mr. First Order Principle, then I submit I have held up my end of the bargain. It is now time for you to take the challenge.


Inflation needs to be considered in ANY analysis that attempts to place the value of a thing in proper context, through time. As I noted previously, proving you know next to nothing about oil production and the history of the industry, economics, or thermodynamics just makes you a run of the mill peak oiler and/or slaphappy mcdoomster.

And no, you have held up nothing.

Let me know when your understanding of any of those 3 particular specialties improves, then we can talk about other topics, if only to determine how poorly you understand them anyway.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 18 Jun 2016, 20:00:45

Thanks. Here's a related article:

"On the cusp of collapse: complexity, energy, and the globalised economy"

http://fleeingvesuvius.org/2011/10/08/o ... d-economy/
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 18 Jun 2016, 20:38:20

ralfy wrote:Thanks. Here's a related article:

"On the cusp of collapse: complexity, energy, and the globalised economy"

http://fleeingvesuvius.org/2011/10/08/o ... d-economy/


Fleeing economic collapse...from 5 years ago? Yup..looks like we fled alright..and still haven't seen the collapse. Or peak oil, considering the most recent information for 2015.

Is it possible that the blog you referenced was just a rogue LATOCian, trying to recycle the ideas from that age, right after Matt Savinar outted his entire congregation? I had thought they were so embarrassed at being found out that they disappeared entirely from the blogosphere, but it is possible a few come out into the light every now and then and try and get a good chuckle going, for old times sake?

Ralfy, has there ever been a peak oil you have doubted? Are you on the record somewhere as claiming that peak oil would be higher production and lower prices? I'm still looking for that guy, because he should be made famous.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby Whatever » Sat 18 Jun 2016, 21:45:23

AdamB wrote:Let me know when your understanding of any of those 3 particular specialties improves, then we can talk about other topics, if only to determine how poorly you understand them anyway.

Great. That is what I figured. You are dodging the question just like vt did.

No one will seriously comment about the Korowicz paper.

I was right. People are scared. This is funny.



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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 19 Jun 2016, 03:43:19

Whatever wrote:I was right. People are scared. This is funny.


Now you are the one projecting. Nobody in this thread is a newbie when it comes to doom and we're far beyond the "scared" phase.

You've got to realize that you're preaching to a nearly empty church, because almost everybody has gone home and gotten back to the life they led before peak-oil.

I can't help but go back to your initial entrance into the site and how, because the welcome wagon wasn't brought out for you, your initial reaction was to insult us and leave--only to come back.

At the end of the day you've got to ask yourself what you hope to gain in trying to convert over the half-dozen or so active posters in this ghost-town, because it's a very low PRPEI (Posting Return on Posting Effort Invested).
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby Whatever » Sun 19 Jun 2016, 04:46:14

ennui2 wrote:
Whatever wrote:I was right. People are scared. This is funny.

Now you are the one projecting. Nobody in this thread is a newbie when it comes to doom and we're far beyond the "scared" phase.

I meant scared of having a fair and serious debate. Scared, as in afraid of loosing the argument.

ennui2 wrote:You've got to realize that you're preaching to a nearly empty church, because almost everybody has gone home and gotten back to the life they led before peak-oil.

And yet you didn't. Why is that? You used to be a technocopian when that form of denial was all the fashion. Now you pass yourself off as some kind of bleary amateur sociologist, proclaiming that peak oil is dead and the whole "movement" should be embarrassed. You post *WAY* more than I do, trolling several different threads daily, posting stupid animation loops all the way. And not only that, but you seem to have developed some sort of "Single White Female" like obsession with me as you morph into my very own personal troll, customizing my online experience by changing your avatar and scrambling for Shrek animation loops. You are seriously creeping me out, ennui. Do you have a life outside of this place?

Image
Single White ennui?

ennui2 wrote:I can't help but go back to your initial entrance into the site and how, because the welcome wagon wasn't brought out for you, your initial reaction was to insult us and leave--only to come back.

I tend to float around. I don't remember insulting anybody. I waited a while to get into the regular threads here because my experience elsewhere had begun to convince me that all these forums were fake. At the time I still held some faint hope that this site might be different, and I didn't really want to find out that it wasn't. Oh well.

ennui2 wrote:At the end of the day you've got to ask yourself what you hope to gain in trying to convert over the half-dozen or so active posters in this ghost-town, because it's a very low PRPEI (Posting Return on Posting Effort Invested).

I know why I am here. I just can't figure out why you are. 8O



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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 19 Jun 2016, 05:27:31

The topic of most interest to me isn't peak-oil, it's AGW. The AGW threads are more relevant to me. The peak-oil threads I pop into mostly out of morbid curiosity.

Before you came around I think PStarr was the last true peak-oiler left as far as someone who is dead-set convinced in some sort of near-term crash (well, to him we've been crashing due to peak-oil since 2008 anyway). Everyone else is, at the very least, more guarded and circumspect about the future due to the teachable moment of the fracking.

I assure you if I stop contributing to this thread you'll face just as much dissent from Kub, Adam, Rockman, etc...

As to posting style, let's just say I'm not the one who got banned from TheOilDrum.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby Whatever » Sun 19 Jun 2016, 06:04:15

ennui2 wrote:I assure you if I stop contributing to this thread you'll face just as much dissent from Kub, Adam, Rockman, etc...

I think he prefers "the ROCKMAN".

ennui2 wrote:As to posting style, let's just say I'm not the one who got banned from TheOilDrum.

More importantly, have you ever been banned from this site?

As to the Tempest in the Oildrum, I don't think I did anything wrong. See for yourself. Courtesy of the *WAY* back machine, here is the post that got the whole thing started:

http://futilitist.blogspot.com/2012/08/ ... tchen.html

LOREN_SOMAN aka FUTILITIST on August 23, 2012 - 3:40pm Permalink | Subthread | Parent | Parent subthread | Comments top

Leanan,

You said: "But for many people, events over the past 3-4 years have led them to realize that there isn't going to be a fast collapse, and/or that other issues are more urgent (climate change, financial collapse, getting a job)."

That statement describes a rationalization that some people seem to have adopted lately. The original doomer perspective that peak oil would lead to the total collapse of industrial civilization and a rapid and severe human die-off, was, and still is, correct. It just hasn't happened yet. The logic behind the idea of an eventual fast collapse has never been successfully rebutted on this site or anywhere else. The arguments against a fast collapse are illogical and circular.

John Michael Greer is the poster boy for the slow collapse idea. Whenever anyone argues against a fast collapse, they generally reference Greer and his "catabolic collapse" theory. I recently read the latest Feasta paper by David Korowcz which lays out in excruciating detail the many ways in which a fast collapse will likely begin and then must accelerate because of the positive feed backs that would be activated. I would invite anyone who shares your view to read that paper and then explain how it's projected outcomes can possibly be avoided.

Here is how Greer carefully words his attempt to refute Korowicz's paper in his Archdruid blog from July 18:

"...Faced with the imminent reality of national collapse, the US government did not sit on its hands, which is what those with the capacity to do something are always required to do in fast collapse theories. Instead, it temporarily nationalized the entire American banking system, declared that all assets held by the banks were owned by the government until further notice, made private ownership of gold by US citizens illegal, and ordered every scrap of gold in the country much bigger than a wedding ring sold to the government at a fixed, below-market price, with stiff legal penalties for anybody who tried to hang onto their gold stash. (I’m not making up any of this, either. Look it up.) Flush with seized bank assets and confiscated gold, the government poured money into the nationalized banks, which could then meet every demand for funds, stopping the panic in its tracks. Once stability returned, the banks returned to private ownership and got their assets back, though gold remained a government monopoly for decades longer.

This sort of drastic measure is far from rare in economic history. Germany in the 1920s put paid to its era of hyperinflation by issuing a new currency, the rentenmark, which was backed by taking out one big mortgage on every single piece of real property in the country. Other countries have done things even more extreme. A nation facing collapse, it bears remembering, has plenty of options, and it also has the means, motive, and opportunity to use them. It’s only fair to point out that this sort of drastic response is something that the Feasta study specifically excludes. One of Korowicz’ basic assumptions, stated as such in his study, is that governments will respond to the crisis by choosing the minimal option they think will solve the immediate problem. It’s a reasonable assumption, right up to the point that national survival is at stake, but at that point history shows in no uncertain terms that the assumption goes right out the window. Nation-states are good at surviving—that’s why they’ve become the standard form of human political organization in the viciously Darwinian environment of modern history—and it’s hard to think of anything a nation-state won’t do if it thinks its survival is threatened.

That said, Korowicz’ study points to one very plausible way that the next major round of crisis could slam into the industrial world. The fact that the nations affected by it could kluge together responses to it, slap the equivalent of defibrillator paddles onto their prostrate economies, and get a heartbeat again for the time being doesn’t change the fact that a financial collapse followed by even a partial supply chain breakdown would be a massive crisis, the sort of thing that could well plunge hundreds of millions of people into permanent poverty and push the global economy further down a long ragged decline that will be much less amenable to drastic responses. We’re in agreement, in effect, that the patient is terminally ill; the question is simply whether first aid measures available to the paramedics on site can get his heart beating again, so he can drag out the dying process for a while longer."

Greer begins here with the straw man that fast collapse would require that governments 'sit on their hands' and not react. But Korowicz never suggests anything like that in his paper. Quite the opposite actually. Korowicz details how any possible government responses will be ineffective and likely even make the situation worse.

In effect, Greer (a historian?, not a scientist) is saying that nation states are inherently powerful and literally too big to fail. When the nation's existence is threatened, it would be able to control the situation favorably, and when faced with imminent collapse it would do just that. That argument is obviously completely circular.

Greer's analogy of the terminally ill patient is not very well thought out either. It is better used to prove the opposite point. If the patient is resuscitated at great expense "so he can drag out the dying process for a while longer", what happens next? We would have to assume that all the problems couldn't be permanently fixed and the patient would be left to face the next crisis in a much weakened state. Presumably in this scenario, the government would step in again and save the day. Over and over again to infinity! Obviously that couldn't work. Just like in a real human patient, life can be prolonged by extraordinary measures, but death will still be the ultimate outcome. And the transition from life to death is always sudden (a fast collapse).

Greer's rebuttal of Korowicz's paper is intentionally dishonest, misleading, insulting, and completely inadequate (i.e. silly). If anyone on this site wants to take up and champion Greer's cause, or if Greer himself were to debate this on this site, I think it would be the best discussion The Oil Drum has ever had. Greer's position is so obviously the losing one. I guess it is always socially easier to agree to disagree than to have one side actually lose the argument.

It's like deja vu all over again! The more things change, the more they stay the same. I feel like I am frozen in time.

The Korowicz paper has yet to be properly discussed.



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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby ennui2 » Sun 19 Jun 2016, 07:17:57

Whatever wrote:have you ever been banned from this site?


No.

Whatever wrote:As to the Tempest in the Oildrum, I don't think I did anything wrong.


Nobody who gets banned ever thinks they did anything wrong.

The one good thing doomerism did for me is send me on a whole bunch of knowledge paths. One of them was to try to get a better handle on human behavior. Some of the best OilDrum posts were essays on psychology. You know, Maslow's Hierarchy of needs, tragedy of the commons, and things like that. Maybe if I could do life over again I'd enter psychology. But what that does for me in a debate is to always lead by looking for cognitive biases.

I think even seemingly the most reasoned essay is peppered with some sort of cognitive bias. And I think that bias manifests itself most acutely in how we form predictions. Predictions invariably reflect our hopes and/or fears. This is why predictions tend to be overly dramatic, either towards the positive or negative, whereas the actual unfolding of the future tends to be mundane. Bad events happen, but then life eventually drifts back to the mean rather than it ushering in TEOTWAWKI.

I think certain kinds of predictions are just inherently unreliable. And yet people just LOVE issuing them, the same way they love betting on sports. The more difficult the prediction, the more they want to stick their necks out. It's not a search for truth, it's a game. Fast-crash doomerism is a game.

Pops figured that out a while back and he's right. It's like a game of no-stakes poker. People predict wars, famine, pestilence, and death, and when it doesn't happen, they just forget they lost, pull something new out of google news, and start the cycle over again. The only universal constant is this murky cloud of hate towards anything BAU and TPTB.

It may not take the 300 years that Greer thinks it will, but doom still moves too slowly for the internet generation. On any given day the situation doesn't change enough to have that much to talk about. That's why I think people feel the need to link a news item (Iran Oil Bourse, Baltic Dry Index, etc...) as a "sign" of the impending fast-crash doom.

Sites like this only really matter to people who feel they have some new item they can wave around like Paul Revere to warn people that doom is coming, doom is coming.
"If the oil price crosses above the Etp maximum oil price curve within the next month, I will leave the forum." --SumYunGai (9/21/2016)
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 19 Jun 2016, 08:06:44

ennui2 wrote:[

You've got to realize that you're preaching to a nearly empty church, because almost everybody has gone home and gotten back to the life they led before peak-oil.


By my count fifty different posters have had the last word on a thread sense the first of June. That would make quite a cocktail party if you got us all into the same apartment but a brawl would undoubtedly break out and the host would have to call the cops.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 19 Jun 2016, 09:43:00

e - I don't think you can really separate AGW from PO because they are both centered on the same dynamic: fossil fuel consumption. AGW isn't being serious!y addressed (by action and not words) because it isn't the priority for the vast majority on the planet. Economic growth is...growth that is powered by fossil fuels. And IMHO as limitations of ff increase even less concern will be focused on AGW.

And I suspect you have similar concerns and thus hang out with us from time to time.
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Re: Low oil price, high production equals peak oil? Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 19 Jun 2016, 10:41:31

Whatever wrote:
AdamB wrote:Let me know when your understanding of any of those 3 particular specialties improves, then we can talk about other topics, if only to determine how poorly you understand them anyway.

Great. That is what I figured. You are dodging the question just like vt did.


I made you an honest offer. You not only dodged the need for proper data, but certainly provided no such backcasting throughout the history of the industry, to demonstrate that this claim of entropy and price correlated across the complete dataset.

You and the cold fusion folks need to get together and throw a party to congratulate yourself on how many of the gullible you attracted before being outed.
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