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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Liebig's Law of the Minimum Pt. 1

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Think the Earth is finite? Think again

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 13 Dec 2010, 17:16:21

peripato wrote:Except in certain works of fiction, how many descendants of the rich and powerful of whatever civilisation collapsed before us, (assuming they know who they are), are enjoying the fruits of their ancestors' wealth and privilege?



Some Maya walked away from their civilization and learned to live a different way. It's not likely these were the rich and powerful. The rich and powerful tend to cling to the way of life which made them rich and powerful. Those with nothing to lose (the poor) are more likely to walk away and survive, in my opinion.
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Re: Think the Earth is finite? Think again

Unread postby anador » Mon 13 Dec 2010, 17:24:04

The poor and middle classes generally posses more practical skills. 10 peasants from different walks of life could rebuild civilization. But If I was lost in the woods with Bob Dole, Hillary Clinton,The pretender to the portuguese throne, and 7 Saudi princes, I doubt we would do anything but die miserably.

At least Bob Dole would be a great emergency food supply. :mrgreen:
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Re: Think the Earth is finite? Think again

Unread postby Ludi » Mon 13 Dec 2010, 17:32:07

anador wrote: 10 peasants from different walks of life could rebuild civilization.



Good god, I hope they wouldn't make that mistake! 8O 8O 8O
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Re: Think the Earth is finite? Think again

Unread postby Carlhole » Mon 13 Dec 2010, 17:39:41

Back in 2004 when the PO.com pearl machine began casting wisdom, the prevailing estimate was that the S would H the F by about 2010 - 2011. Now, the prevailing wisdom is around 2020 - 2040. And I heard pstarr estimate the die-off at around mid-century.

This is how it has always gone with predictions of cataclysm due to oil peaking and declining, ever since the the early 20th century. The doom date keeps getting pushed out into the future.

Ok... so it's 2030 or or thereabouts now... THIS time it's surely different!


I swear it's so funny to read threads like this. Each member steps up and addresses the rest of the congregation, testifying to the truth of the prophecy just like a good Mormon on Sunday. Everyone around here thinks they can predict the future accurately.
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Re: Think the Earth is finite? Think again

Unread postby pstarr » Mon 13 Dec 2010, 18:06:39

Carlhole wrote:And I heard pstarr estimate the die-off at around mid-century.

If you quote me quote me accurately. But then the truth is not your ideology.

me wrote:I don't believe there will be a single dramatic dieoff event like the Rapture or World Made by Hand. I think the future will play out more locally in ways that no one can fathom. That is the very nature Peak Oil.

me wrote:I would consider a dieoff of humans to be of great service to other species more beautiful than us. But that is not the point.

me wrote:The nice thing about strawberries is that they propagate themselves by sending out runners year after year and so are a great fruit in the south where there is no winter dieoff. Strawberries and blueberries seem to thrive in the same conditions (acid soil?). However:

me wrote:I challenged you to name one agriculture system in the world today that is not utterly dependent on fossil fuels, primarily diesel. Until you do so then Liebig's law remains valid. We have commandeered a one-time planetary nutrient, petroleum that has allowed us to drawdown many other essential nutrients, and it remains simpleminded cargoism to suggest otherwise. Thus dieoff is real. period. end of discussion.
The last talks about the inevitability of dieoff in the context of Liebig's Law. It sure does not give a date

The rest of your post is illiterate, full of your own paranoia, and is all about insulting people You are a jerk. You are so busy defending your own agenda you never learn anything or say anything new.
Haven't you heard? I'm a doomer!
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Re: Think the Earth is finite? Think again

Unread postby rangerone314 » Mon 13 Dec 2010, 20:24:52

I don't think I can predict the future that accurately. That being said, my property will be energy self-sufficient and food self-sufficient (producing about 4-5 million food calories a year) within 10-12 years.
An ideology is by definition not a search for TRUTH-but a search for PROOF that its point of view is right

Equals barter and negotiate-people with power just take

You cant defend freedom by eliminating it-unknown

Our elected reps should wear sponsor patches on their suits so we know who they represent-like Nascar-Roy
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Re: Think the Earth is finite? Think again

Unread postby Xenophobe » Mon 13 Dec 2010, 21:00:07

Carlhole wrote:I swear it's so funny to read threads like this. Each member steps up and addresses the rest of the congregation, testifying to the truth of the prophecy just like a good Mormon on Sunday. Everyone around here thinks they can predict the future accurately.


Thats a good description of whats going on, isn't it? Excellent work Carlhole, award yourself a gold star.
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Re: Think the Earth is finite? Think again

Unread postby Pretorian » Mon 13 Dec 2010, 23:37:15

Carlhole wrote:Back in 2004 when the PO.com pearl machine began casting wisdom, the prevailing estimate was that the S would H the F by about 2010 - 2011. Now, the prevailing wisdom is around 2020 - 2040. And I heard pstarr estimate the die-off at around mid-century.

This is how it has always gone with predictions of cataclysm due to oil peaking and declining, ever since the the early 20th century. The doom date keeps getting pushed out into the future.

Ok... so it's 2030 or or thereabouts now... THIS time it's surely different!


I swear it's so funny to read threads like this. Each member steps up and addresses the rest of the congregation, testifying to the truth of the prophecy just like a good Mormon on Sunday. Everyone around here thinks they can predict the future accurately.


Globally , shit will not hit the fan. But, life will be shittier and shittier, every year from now on. Not for everybody, of course. But for a vast majority of the world populace--yes.
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Re: Think the Earth is finite? Think again

Unread postby americandream » Tue 14 Dec 2010, 01:20:36

Carlhole wrote:Back in 2004 when the PO.com pearl machine began casting wisdom, the prevailing estimate was that the S would H the F by about 2010 - 2011. Now, the prevailing wisdom is around 2020 - 2040. And I heard pstarr estimate the die-off at around mid-century.

This is how it has always gone with predictions of cataclysm due to oil peaking and declining, ever since the the early 20th century. The doom date keeps getting pushed out into the future.

Ok... so it's 2030 or or thereabouts now... THIS time it's surely different!


I swear it's so funny to read threads like this. Each member steps up and addresses the rest of the congregation, testifying to the truth of the prophecy just like a good Mormon on Sunday. Everyone around here thinks they can predict the future accurately.



Unless capitalism invents a comprehensive resource alchemy or finds the means to ferry resources from a source off planet, capitalism WILL collapse. No amount of wishful optimism can halt that process.

Even were capitalism to overcome these challenges, it will finally be choked off by its filth which is rapidly proliferating at all levels in our environment. Some of the pollution is insidiously invasive enough to overwhelm any of our efforts at cleaning up (do your research as this stuff is on the net and pretty straight forward reading.)

Capitalism will hit the buffers either way by mid century. In 10 years time, a rapidly decaying ocean will jog your memory as to these comments of mine. Hence my view that we will revert to some form of collectivism as a global backlash against this destructive way of life rears its head.

In the meantime, your denial is probably healthy for your sanity as I don't think that you are capable of handling the truth.
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Re: Think the Earth is finite? Think again

Unread postby Carlhole » Tue 14 Dec 2010, 06:15:04

americandream wrote:In the meantime, your denial is probably healthy for your sanity as I don't think that you are capable of handling the truth.


That's bullshit. I read all kinds of stuff on peak oil. I have for years. I used to take the whole Hubbertian analysis seriously until I started digging in to the details.

This has happened to others too. For example, we used to have a very conscientious member here by the name of FatherOfTwo who used to read and read and ask lots of questions and he dug in and really got into the weeds of peak oil. This was his last post:

Honestly I don't follow peakoil.com that much anymore (although I do pop in every now and then to the economic forum to read MrBill's very, very insightful posts) Here's why I don't follow it too much anymore, and why I would suggest doing a lot more reading before taking the "doomer's prep stage":

I started reading and researching peak oil in 2004 (as you can see by my join date and number of posts) It rattled me extensively as I was seriously uneducated about the topic at the time. I became a frequent visitor to this site and my appetite for energy related news and information became ravenous. I also became pretty depressed about the whole thing.

Over the years I have done a tremendous amount more reading and I've also attended the UofC's IEEE speaker sessions too. (I highly recommend those) With much more info under my belt and 4 years of reflection, I have a very different point of view now - and that is that we are headed for a gut wrenching adjustment, but doom due to peak oil is not on the horizon. This thread is not the place for me to extrapolate on my position.

In general I think blukatzen has good recommendations: living locally and sustainably is good regardless of what happens with Peak Oil. But as someone who has 4 years of this topic under his belt, I'd caution you to do more research before "prepping". peakoil.com is slanted hard towards the doomer side of things, and as with any topic it's best to get all the facts and a full sampling of viewpoints before betting the ranch on any one outcome.

I'm willing to discuss things further via PM but this thread isn't the place to continue any discussions on this matter.

Cheers and best of luck,

FoT


...and that's the thing with PeakOil.com; the people who dig in and read and discover that the Hubbertian analysis doesn't quite stand up -- they leave! And they don't come back! So the only people who stick around here are those that buy into the doom prophecy like the Second Coming or something.

And look, we always see the same paltry few posters submitting threads here. Compared to the supposed dire global seriousness of peak oil, the site sure isn't attracting very many new people... I mean, just look at this thread -- honestly, it's just the familiar few dozen names of the choir preaching to same.

I posted an excellent thread on a new book, "Oil Panic and the Global Collapse" by Stanford Earth Scientist Stephen Gorelick (which you can torrent for free). After reading that book, you'll see what FatherOfTwo (and people like me) mean when they say that there just isn't any sign of cataclysm on the horizon. Peak oil is a problem, sure. But the doomer perspective here is just way, way over the top.
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Re: Think the Earth is finite? Think again

Unread postby Lore » Tue 14 Dec 2010, 07:49:41

With much more info under my belt and 4 years of reflection, I have a very different point of view now - and that is that we are headed for a gut wrenching adjustment, but doom due to peak oil is not on the horizon. This thread is not the place for me to extrapolate on my position.


Really depends on how long your horizon is.

At a point you just reach a conclusion and an acceptance, rightly or wrongly. People then get bored and go away. It's a bit like laying in a fox hole waiting for an attack, 98% boredom, 2% abject terror.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
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Re: Think the Earth is finite? Think again

Unread postby Carlhole » Tue 14 Dec 2010, 08:12:11

Lore wrote:
With much more info under my belt and 4 years of reflection, I have a very different point of view now - and that is that we are headed for a gut wrenching adjustment, but doom due to peak oil is not on the horizon. This thread is not the place for me to extrapolate on my position.


Really depends on how long your horizon is.

At a point you just reach a conclusion and an acceptance, rightly or wrongly. People then get bored and go away. It's a bit like laying in a fox hole waiting for an attack, 98% boredom, 2% abject terror.


Throughout history, predictions about the future have turned out to be totally laughable. Neverthless, everyone around here thinks it's no big deal to be dead certain about future outcomes. It's just another "The End Is Near!" crowd - at least it used to be ... now it's more like, "The End Is Further Out!"

Fact is, fossil fuels are going to be with us for a very long time, carrying the brunt of our requirements. Meanwhile, a variety of nuclear designs are fast being implemented in China and India, technologies like Joule Unlimited's photosynthetic microbes and all the rest of the energy alternatives are being developed in earnest. It's all very interesting.

It quite a stretch to believe in peak oil doom. That's why we only ever see the same old few dozen names posting around here. It's just not catching on, even though the concepts involved (Hubbert's peak) are easily grasped. No believes this shit out there in the real world.

A good fraction of the population believe that fossil fuels are a problem, but hardly anyone (percentage-wise) takes peak oil doom very seriously.
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Re: Think the Earth is finite? Think again

Unread postby vision-master » Tue 14 Dec 2010, 08:56:08

Fear of a Blank Planet, eh? :)
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Re: Think the Earth is finite? Think again

Unread postby Lore » Tue 14 Dec 2010, 09:02:21

Carlhole wrote:Throughout history, predictions about the future have turned out to be totally laughable. Neverthless, everyone around here thinks it's no big deal to be dead certain about future outcomes. It's just another "The End Is Near!" crowd - at least it used to be ... now it's more like, "The End Is Further Out!"


Then again a great many predictions have come true. Just because it hasn't happened yet does not falsify the prediction. I've argued that Peak Oil and Climate Change are processes that will take place over many years, not in a single defining event. The end is not near, but it is also inevitable.

Carlhole wrote:Fact is, fossil fuels are going to be with us for a very long time, carrying the brunt of our requirements. Meanwhile, a variety of nuclear designs are fast being implemented in China and India, technologies like Joule Unlimited's photosynthetic microbes and all the rest of the energy alternatives are being developed in earnest. It's all very interesting.


This a falicious argument to the future, arguing that evidence will someday be discovered which will (then) support your point.

Carlhole wrote:It quite a stretch to believe in peak oil doom. That's why we only ever see the same old few dozen names posting around here. It's just not catching on, even though the concepts involved (Hubbert's peak) are easily grasped. No believes this shit out there in the real world.


Not a stretch at all. Everyone from the IEA on down believes in it. It's just an argument over when the affects will be felt.

Carlhole wrote:A good fraction of the population believe that fossil fuels are a problem, but hardly anyone (percentage-wise) takes peak oil doom very seriously.


Most people don't take their own mortality seriously why should Peak Oil affect their BAU lives anymore then that?
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
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Re: Think the Earth is finite? Think again

Unread postby Carlhole » Tue 14 Dec 2010, 09:24:45

Lore wrote:Everyone from the IEA on down believes in it.


That's a lie. Show me where IEA has predicted peak oil doom.
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Re: Think the Earth is finite? Think again

Unread postby Lore » Tue 14 Dec 2010, 09:38:31

Carlhole wrote:
Lore wrote:Everyone from the IEA on down believes in it.


That's a lie. Show me where IEA has predicted peak oil doom.


The IEA is not in the business of predicting doom, just the forcast for energy.

Has the World Already Passed “Peak Oil”?
New analysis pegs 2006 as highpoint of conventional crude production.


The year 2006 may be remembered for civil strife in Iraq, the nuclear weapon testing threat by North Korea, and the genocide in Darfur, but now it appears that another world event was occurring at the same time—without headlines, but with far-reaching consequence for all nations.

That’s the year that the world’s conventional oil production likely reached its peak, the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Vienna, Austria, said Tuesday.

According to the 25-year forecast in the IEA's latest annual World Energy Outlook, the most likely scenario is for crude oil production to stay on a plateau at about 68 to 69 million barrels per day.

In this scenario, crude oil production "never regains its all-time peak of 70 million barrels per day reached in 2006," said IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2010.

In previous years, the IEA had predicted that crude oil production would continue to rise for at least another couple of decades.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news ... y-outlook/
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Re: Think the Earth is finite? Think again

Unread postby Carlhole » Tue 14 Dec 2010, 09:46:07

We are talking about the fact the hardly anyone believes in peak oil DOOM. Only a few doom cultists believe in that. The world at large certainly does not. The IEA has never mentioned anything of the sort.

No one disputes that fossil fuels are finite. The IEA has acknowledged that a peak to be followed by an undulating plateau that lasts for a few decades.
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Re: Think the Earth is finite? Think again

Unread postby dsula » Tue 14 Dec 2010, 10:08:08

Carlhole wrote:It quite a stretch to believe in peak oil doom.

That of course depends on what doom means. If doom means the end of all mankind, then yes it's a stretch. If dooom means the end of western civilization, then it's not much of a stretch. If doom means greatly reduced standard of living for everybody (and mostly the west) then it's a sure thing.
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Re: Think the Earth is finite? Think again

Unread postby eXpat » Tue 14 Dec 2010, 11:14:38

Carlhole wrote:We are talking about the fact the hardly anyone believes in peak oil DOOM. Only a few doom cultists believe in that. The world at large certainly does not. The IEA has never mentioned anything of the sort.

No one disputes that fossil fuels are finite. The IEA has acknowledged that a peak to be followed by an undulating plateau that lasts for a few decades.

You are just playing with words there. We are past the peak of production, and there are not alternatives, Where is the energy and resources to keep BAU?
And what does it matter that J6P doesn´t believe it? J6P sits down to watch American Idol or Big Brother, J6P can hardly emit an authoritative opinion about anyting that is not superficial, shiny and mainstream.
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Re: Think the Earth is finite? Think again

Unread postby Carlhole » Tue 14 Dec 2010, 12:15:48

eXpat wrote:
Carlhole wrote:We are talking about the fact the hardly anyone believes in peak oil DOOM. Only a few doom cultists believe in that. The world at large certainly does not. The IEA has never mentioned anything of the sort.

No one disputes that fossil fuels are finite. The IEA has acknowledged that a peak to be followed by an undulating plateau that lasts for a few decades.

You are just playing with words there. We are past the peak of production, and there are not alternatives, Where is the energy and resources to keep BAU?
And what does it matter that J6P doesn´t believe it? J6P sits down to watch American Idol or Big Brother, J6P can hardly emit an authoritative opinion about anyting that is not superficial, shiny and mainstream.


There is no significant evidence that bell-shaped curves accurately describe extraction rates. The long thread years ago with "Spike" (Michael Lynch) got into all of this - of which a large part has to do with economics and human action, not just supply itself. Hubbert's mathematical method SUCKED, and still does, to be blunt. It simply does not predict the future in any useful statistically significant way. No wonder -- it's the future! And economics is so subject to chaos; it's completely unpredictable. That should be a salient fact in any rational mind; I guess it's not around here, though.

Really, everyone should read OIl Panic and the Global Collapse: Predictions & Myths by Stephen Gorelick [/i]. Later, you'll thank me and pat me on the back for helping you.
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