Large and Unusual Blackouts

[John_A]

John_A, I don't believe you understand Duncan's theory. As I understand it his Gorge is not dependent on natural-gas fired electricity but rather energy availability/capita world-wide. He uses electricity as a measure of industrial production.

Duncan has several versions of his theory, don't know if he was updating as he went or just hoping to get it right by modifying it along the way. But I think you are quite right that the overall idea is that it is a per capita energy angle, except that per capita energy hasn't changed much since the 70's, I believe TOD did an update at some point in time and discovered that it had actually gone up as of late.

His update at the Energy Bulletin was where I found the cliff date for 2008. I think this is the place I found the north american natural gas reference.

http://www.mnforsustain.org/natural_gas ... n_1203.htm

[babystrangeloop]

BP Global -> Reports and publications -> Statistical Review of World Energy 2011 -> Review by energy type -> Electricity BP 2011

Total world electricity generation grew by 5.9% in 2010, the fastest growth in our data (since 1990) Electricity grew faster than both GDP and primary energy, as it has done for most of the past ten years

Isn't that cheery? To think the world is doing so great that we have to compare 2010 to the crater that 2009 was.

BP PDF original transformed into Google docs spreadsheet: http://goo.gl/0ALVe

Same with some derivative calculations: http://goo.gl/M6SUF

Notable is the additional column of percent change showing 2010 compared to 2008 (BP gives you 2010 vs 2009 percent change.)

Also at the bottom are my additions of "Non-Asian Pacific" and "Non-China".

Where does the beautiful 5.9% growth go when you compare non-Asian Pacific 2008 to 2010? It turns into 0.4%

Do you think 0.4% electricity supply growth would be enough if we switched to electric cars? I'm hoping they will be flying ones with hot tubs in them too!

[Pops]

Anyway, what I was going say was Duncan used total population in his formula and so do I on the charts.

It dawned on me that global population is not the same as global energy consumers and the number of global energy consumer is probably changing at at different rate than total population.

So the question is how to determine "energy consumers" and where I might be able to find a dataset?

Any ideas?

[babystrangeloop]

So the question is how to determine "energy consumers" and where I might be able to find a dataset?

Can you also find a dataset of "wanna be energy consumers" too?

[babystrangeloop]

Where does the beautiful 5.9% growth go when you compare non-Asian Pacific 2008 to 2010? It turns into 0.4%

So all the growth is in Asian Pacific.

In 2011 who are they now? Japan? China? BZZZT!

TABLE-China power shortage forecasts by region
Reporting by Jim Bai and Tom Miles; Editing by Chris Lewis / Reuters / June 15, 2011

Following are details on summer power shortage forecasts,
expected maximum loads, supply capacity in each region, as
reported by local grid operators, local governments or official
media.

All numbers are in gigawatts (GW).

Code: Select all

                                                    capacity   
CENTRAL CHINA   
  Jiangxi      2.2-2.4             14.5              12   
  Henan          4.85                               50.7^     
  Hunan          4.0                16              11.8    
  Chongqing      2.1               8.5*             11.6^   
  Hubei        1.8-3.8~           25.2              49.1^    
EAST CHINA    
  Zhejiang      3.5-5.0             50              57.2^   
  Anhui         2.5                                 29.3^   
  Jiangsu       11.0                69              59   
  Shanghai    0.6-1.1            28-28.5            27.4   
SOUTH CHINA*   
  Guangdong     4.0-6.5             73              70.9^   
  Guizhou      1.5-2.0              12              32.8^   
  Hainan        0.2                 2.3 -2.5         3.9^   
  Guangxi                           13.5-15.4       25.2^    
  Yunnan                            11-12           36.2^   
NORTH CHINA   
  Beijing        1.02               19.1             6.3^   
  Shandong       1.0                52              62.7^   
  Hebei          3.0                25-26.6         23.6   
  Tianjin        1.5                11.4            10.9^   
----------------------------------------------------------   
  Total#        42.87-47.87


^ total power generating capacity at the end of 2010. It
differs from supply capacity that includes delicate power
supplies from other regions or excludes delicate generation for
other regions. In addition, different types of generators,
nuclear, thermal, hydro or wind, have different utilisation
rates and thus represent different effective supply capacity.

* Forecasts are for the second quarter.

South Korea?

S.Korea eyes new LNG supply, power price hike
Reuters / June 14, 2011

Despite the risk of adding to inflationary pressures, Asia's fourth-largest economy plans to slowly increase the country's electricity tariffs gradually to curb inefficient consumption and slow power demand growth, Choi said.

"Electricity rates are below costs, which has sparked inefficient and excessive consumption," Choi said, adding South Korea's annual power consumption growth rate was 5.7 percent from 2002 and 2010.

Must be Vietnam, right?

Vietnam Needs To Develop More Than 12 Per Cent Power Supply A Year
BERNAMA / June 24, 2011

HANOI, June 24 (Bernama) -- Vietnam's power supplies need to be developed at more than 12 percent a year to meet domestic consumption, participants at the second annual Vietnam power summit were told Thursday.

The summit was organised by the World and Vietnam Report and Euromoney Seminars. Hundreds of specialists, policy makers and experts in electricity production, transmission and distribution attended, Vietnam News Agency (VNA) reported.

Total power supply this year is expected to be 111,000GWh, an increase of nearly 11 percent against last year, about 4.0 percent lower than last year.

"The country's total power supply last year was 97,335GWh, an increase of 14.82 percent over 2009," said head of the Electricity of Vietnam's (EVN) Planning Department, Trinh Ngoc Khanh, at the two-day conference.

... Figures released by EVN showed that last year electricity consumption was 86,000GWh. This year it is expected to hit 98,000GWh.

In the next 10 years, Vietnam plans to build 95 more new power plants with a total capacity of more than 49,000MW. Investment will amount to US$39.58 billion. ...

[babystrangeloop]

Generator groups power up
By Alistair Gray / FT / June 26, 2011

Energy shortages across much of the world – particularly in emerging markets – have resulted in a boom for companies that hire out temporary power generators, which fill the gaps.

... “It’s relentless,” says Rupert Soames, chief executive of London-listed Aggreko, which builds and operates temporary power stations for clients such as utilities, armies and mining companies.

... countries from South Africa to Pakistan battle to keep the lights on. Lebanon has rolling power cuts for three hours a day in the capital, Beirut.

Austrian chancellor won't rule out Greek default
The West Australian / June 27, 2011

... the country's influential unions have called a 48-hour walkout from Tuesday on top of rolling power cuts by disgruntled electricity workers that have hit households around the country for the past week.

TEPCO sees highest demand for power since March quake
The Yomiuri Shimbun / June 26, 2011

Electricity demand in areas serviced by Tokyo Electric Power Co. reached its highest level since the March 11 earthquake on Friday, hitting 43.89 million kilowatts between 2 and 3 p.m., the fourth straight day to see a post-disaster high.

With increased power consumption mainly due to air-conditioning, peak demand was 91 percent of TEPCO's 47.9 million kilowatt capacity.

[John_A]

BSL, do you have any theories on these types of infrastructure related blackouts and any reference as to why they are different, or there are more of them, than the normal kind of old style blackouts and such? Or do you wish this thread just to be news snips as to why increased demand might lead to blackouts if TPTB for any particular group decides to not keep up with new infrastructure construction? Hugo Chavez being a perfect example of how a country with tremendous resources but bad political commitment to infrastructure can really put themselves in a hole?

[Ferretlover]

Ahem. Off topic poosts split away. Keep on topic, please, gentlemen.

[babystrangeloop]

BSL, do you have any theories on these types of infrastructure related blackouts and any reference as to why they are different, or there are more of them, than the normal kind of old style blackouts and such?

Bad summer of power shortages threatens China economic growth
Michael Sainsbury / The Australian / June 23, 2011

The key reason behind the central government's inability to control the price of coal is that China has moved from being a self-sufficient coal producer to a net importer of coal.

Goodbye world's biggest economy which was based on selling cheap goods which was based on cheap energy which ended when China had to start buying coal from the world market instead themselves.

Goodbye to China's ability to regulate the price of energy inside China.

We can always fall back on Vietnam now, right?

Vietnam FDI inflow drops 1.9pc
REUTERS / June 26, 2011

HANOI: Foreign direct investment to Vietnam dropped 1.9 percent to $5.3 billion in the first six months of 2011, state-run media reported on Sunday.

... Vietnam's economy has been struggling with double-digit inflation and the government has had to cut its growth target this year to 6 percent from an initial projection of 7-7.5 percent and tighten money supply to help reign in the rising prices. ...

oh noes!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPWsQ7utB2s#t=2m37s

[John_A]

BSL, do you have any theories on these types of infrastructure related blackouts and any reference as to why they are different, or there are more of them, than the normal kind of old style blackouts and such?

Goodbye world's biggest economy which was based on selling cheap goods which was based on cheap energy which ended when China had to start buying coal from the world market instead themselves.

The world's largest economy isn't China, it is the US. And our economy is pretty heavy on the consumption side, compared to the rest of the world. And China, which has quite the trade imbalance to its advantage, can afford to buy even more expensive coal for quite some time.

Goodbye to China's ability to regulate the price of energy inside China.

Cool. Then the US can sell coal to them, at market prices, and they can alleviate their blackout problems. And we can play, economically speaking, on a more energy level playing fields. Considering who China has a trade imbalance with, this can be considered a positive event, no?

[babystrangeloop]

The world's largest economy isn't China, it is the US.

Stop making stuff up, it's childish.

The world gets back to burning
Schumpeter / The Economist / June 8, 2011

China. In 2000, China consumed 11% of the world’s energy; in 2010 it consumed 20.3% of a significantly bigger pie, making it the biggest energy consumer on the planet for the first time in BP’s books (other analyses have made China number one in earlier years; BP doesn’t look at biomass burned in stoves and treats Hong Kong separately, which accounts for the discrepancy).

Then the US can sell coal to them, at market prices

Nobody buys coal just to have coal. They buy coal to make something they can sell for more than they paid for the coal.

In China's case the government regulates the price of electricity making it impossible to make money buying coal and burning it to make electricity to sell. In fact those trying to do that are losing money. How long can this go on? What's the alternative? The alternative is to stop making electricity to cut losses. That's the blackouts. That's Shanghai turning of air-conditioning when the temperature hits 37 C. That's what it's all about. Now if you don't mind I'll get back to aggregating the news about it.

Chinese Oil Demand 101: The Role Of Electricity – Analysis
Written by: Eurasia Review / June 23, 2011

... Similar issues were at play in 2007-2008, when a growing wedge between market-based coal prices and state-regulated electricity prices made it uneconomical for some utilities to produce electricity, again resulting in shortages. In response, the state implemented new rates and pricing mechanisms in late 2008, which alleviated economic pressures to some extent. The economic downturn also helped mitigate shortages at the time.

This summer, China appears to be bracing itself for what the State Grid Corporation of China warned may prove to be the worst electricity shortages since 2004. Potential shortages may result from a combination of market-related fuel prices and lagging incentives in the electricity generation market. Earlier this week, the China Electricity Council reported that the five largest state-owned power generating companies showed significant losses in their thermal power business in May, even after tariffs charged to grid operators in some provinces were increased in April. In short, coal prices have run ahead of electricity prices, causing electricity generators to run at a loss – and thus providing them with a disincentive to produce electricity.

In addition, severe drought conditions have curtailed China’s hydroelectricity generation, compounding the impact of potential shortfalls in coal-fired power generation. Hydroelectric generation is a substantial secondary source of Chinese electric generation, accounting for more than 16 percent of power supply. Reportedly, some areas of the country have experienced the worst drought in 50 years. Unlike in 2008, economic recession is unlikely to curb electricity demand growth.

In an attempt to avert shortfalls, China raised electricity prices to industrial, agricultural, and commercial consumers in at least 15 provinces. Prices to residential customers were left unchanged. While the new rates went into effect on June 1, the China Electricity Council warned of shortages of about 30 gigawatts during the summer of 2011, which implies the potential for significantly increased demand for crude oil and products, as electricity consumers will look to replace state electricity with their own power generation. Already middle distillates (diesel) account for the lion’s share of Chinese oil demand (unlike the United States, where gasoline plays that role). One of the consequences of the expected uptick in Chinese oil demand for electricity generation this summer will be to further increase diesel’s share of the Chinese demand barrel. ...

Profit growth of Chinese power industry down by 25pct MoM
National Business Daily via SteelGuru / June 27, 2011

National Business Daily citing the China Electricity Council said the power industry recorded profits of CNY 11.4 billion in April with the rate of growth down 25%MoM.

Shanghai to ration power to offices, malls
AAP / June 21, 2011

Authorities in China's financial hub of Shanghai will for the first time ration power to thousands of office buildings and malls this summer due to chronic shortages, state media reported.

... Over 3,000 non-industrial businesses will have to turn off air conditioners periodically if temperatures hit 35 degrees to ensure there is enough power for residents, the Oriental Morning Post said.

... "If it is unusually hot and the temperatures hit 37 degrees Celsius we hope these office buildings and shops can shut down and take a break," the unnamed official was quoted saying last week.

Coal shortage likely to affect power sector
Dileep Athavale / Times India, TNN / June 20, 2011

PUNE: Credit ratings firm, Fitch, said on Monday that coal shortages, which are likely to persist over the short-to-medium term could adversely affect Indias power generation companies.

... Coal demand has increased significantly with the commissioning of new coal-fired generation capacity. Given Indias chronic power deficit, this trend is likely to continue. A lower-than-expected increase in domestic coal production, particularly due to delays in the development of captive coal blocks allocated to the power generators, has added to the demand-supply gap, Salil Garg, Director in Fitchs energy and utilities team, said. ...

... Fitch notes that the increasing dependence on imported coal is a challenge for the Indian companies. First, the price of imported coal is higher than the price of domestic coal bought from CIL under fuel supply agreements, although this only affects generators which cannot pass-on fuel costs through PPAs. Secondly, the weak coal transportation infrastructure between ports and power plants can lead to supply shortages affecting generation output. ...

Length of power outages in Greece set to increase
PennWell Corporation / June 27, 2011

Public Power Corporation (PPC), Greece’s biggest electricity utility, is to increase the length of power cuts to help balance demand as workers continue to strike. PPC is seeking to have the strike declared “illegal and abusive”. ...

Pilgrims looted at shrine near Berhampur
Times India, TNN | June 26, 2011

BERHAMPUR: Unidentified miscreants have looted gold and silver ornaments from a group of pilgrims at Mahuri Kalua, a famous Shakti shrine on the outskirts of Berhampur.

... Police said there was a power cut during the incident and this helped the dacoits to escape easily.

Nationwide blackout looms
Written by Sunday Williams, Abuja & Mohammed Shosanya, Lagos Monday / Daily Trust / June 27, 2011

A nationwide power outage is likely to be experienced tomorrow if electricity workers make good their threat of shutting down operations at all plants around the country.

... Regular power outages are a common feature in Nigeria because of inadequate and decaying infrastructure, and therefore a one-day nationwide power outage is likely to go unnoticed in many places. At present, the country generates less than 4,000mw of electricity for a population of 150 million. ...

Most Japanese oppose nuclear reactor restarts: poll
Reporting by Shinichi Saoshiro and Risa Maeda; Editing by Michael Watson / Reuters / June 27, 2011

Nearly 70 percent of Japanese oppose the restart of nuclear reactors halted for maintenance work, a poll showed Monday, even though keeping them shut could mean power blackouts this summer and higher electricity bills. ...

Iran to supply Iraq with gas oil
by Michael Palmer / June 27, 2011

Iran will supply Iraq with 1.5 million litres of gas oil in an attempt to keep its power stations running, after the Iraqi Electricity Ministry announced earlier this year that some facilities might have to stop power production due to lack of fuel. ...

Loadshedding creating problems for students of QAU
Pakistan Observer / June 27, 2011

Islamabad—Increasing loadshedding is creating numerous problems for the students of Quaid-e-Azam University (QAU) as they are unable to focus on their ongoing final examination that started from June 24, 2011.

The students have urged the concerned authorities at least not to disconnect electricity during examination timings so that they could concentrate on studies. ...

People reeling under power cuts
The Nation / June 27, 2011

SARGODHA - Sizzling hot season coupled by worst loadshedding snatched the peace and tranquillity of the citizens. A great number of hapless people rushed to the Lower Jhelum Canal (LJC) to mitigate the severity of heat.

... Meanwhile, the loadshedding remained haunting the city and its surroundings with an increase in its duration from 14 to 15 hours, resultantly people are compelled to spend their nights without sleeping. The traders and shopkeepers observed a protest against the consistent power outages outside Rehman Trading Centre (RTC) on University Road. They chanted slogans and demanded an end to the “scathing” loadshedding as they are facing miseries and loss of business due to long hour loadshedding. They also condemned the disconnection of generators supply by the RTC management. The traffic remained blocked University Road as a result of the protest. ...

PTI to protest loadshedding on 30th
The News International / June 27, 2011

PESHAWAR: Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf (PTI) Sunday announced a province-wide protest on June 30 against the unprecedented power outages in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. ...

[peeker01]

got waaay to hot to work in the garden, so i searched for india data instead.

found this on wiki.

Generation

Total Installed Capacity (as on 28-02-2011) is 171,926.40 MW
[Thermal Power

Current installed capacity of Thermal Power as of February 28, 2011 is 111,324.48 MW which is 64.75% of total installed capacity.

Current installed base of Coal Based Thermal Power is 92,418.38 MW which comes to 53.75% of total installed base.

Current installed base of Gas Based Thermal Power is 17,706.35 MW which is 10.3% of total installed capacity.

Current installed base of Oil Based Thermal Power is 1,199.75 MW which is 0.9% of total installed capacity.

looks like about half of 1% oil based electricity in india
balance is nuk and hydro

[John_A]

looks like about half of 1% oil based electricity in india
balance is nuk and hydro

So much for their blackouts being oil related then. BSL appears to just be listing general blackout/brownout links, I haven't seen him/her try and form a link to peak oil yet. Or any reference for how many and long blackouts were prior to peak oil just to see if anything has really changed.

[babystrangeloop]

You know, things are sort of looking like post-peak..
a) electricity blackouts
b) world governments releasing their strategic oil reserves

Isn't it incredible? I can't keep up with the flood of news about blackouts.

Increase in diesel prices hits flower growers hard
Neha Madaan / Times of India, TNN / June 28

PUNE: The recent rise in diesel prices, an increase of Rs 3.78 per litre, is expected to push the production and input cost of flower growers in the state. The reason being, the floriculture industry is heavily dependant on transportation of flowers to various destinations. The industry also relies on generators that run on diesel.
... Generators used as power back-ups to keep the cold-storage running require huge volume of diesel too. "The total cost of diesel used in the generator is Rs 50,000 per month. With load-shedding as well as the price rise, this cost will increase," said Raskar. ...

Japan May Retail Sales Drop Slows; Autos Down, Electronics Up Market News International / June 27, 2011
Both businesses and households in eastern Japan have been urged by the government to slash electricity consumption this summer in order to prevent a massive blackout.

Greece set for shutdown later today
The New Zealand Herald / June 27, 2011
Greece is set to come to a halt later today as protesters launch a 48-hour general strike against the bankruptcy-threatened government.
... More debilitating power cuts for hours at a time are also expected after days of tactical stoppages in an effort to stop the government selling its stake in Greece's main electricity provider. ...

Power shortfall over 6,000MW now
The News International / June 27, 2011
... Urban areas [In Pakistan] are generally suffering with power outages of up to 12-16 hours a day while in the rural areas, the power is suspended for 16-20 hours a day, leaving people helpless in hot and humid weather. ...

AFP: Government buildings torched in Senegal
AFP / June 28, 2011
Dakar. Angry residents of the Senegalese capital late Monday torched several government buildings including offices of the state electricity firm to protest against long power cuts, an AFP journalist saw.

Four offices of Senelec were ablaze and four company vehicles torched. Broken bottles and scattered debris littered the streets of the seaside city along with tyres burnt by the protesters. A tax office was ransacked and burnt in a Dakar suburb.

A policeman said the protesters "took everything with them, including the safe" and added: "The whole of Dakar is burning."
The public anger against mounting power cuts first erupted in the coastal town of Mbour, about 80 kilometres (50 miles) from Dakar, where police fired tear gas to disperse the demonstrators. ...

[babystrangeloop]

Russia warns Belarus of power cut over debts
Xinhua / June 28, 2011

Russia threatened on Tuesday to cut off power supplies to Belarus Wednesday if Minsk failed to pay its debt in time.

The Russian electricity export monopoly Inter RAO said that Russia had extended the deadline until Tuesday morning for Belarus to pay off its debts of 43 million U.S. dollars, but so far no payment had been made.

"At midnight June 29 (2000 GMT, June 28), we will completely cut off electricity supplies to Belarus. We are waiting for Belarus to fully repay its debt," RIA Novosti news agency reported, citing Inter RAO's spokesman. ...

48-hour labor strike Tuesday and Wednesday
ANA-MPA SA. / June 28, 2011

A 48-hour nationwide general strike against austerity measures and privatisations was launched on Tuesday, ahead of a parliamentary vote on the government's Medium-Term fiscal programme on Wednesday at the conclusion of an ongoing debate in the 300-member House and on the programme's Implementation Law on Thursday.

... Public Power Corporation (PPC) employees, who are currently in their second week of rolling 48-hour strikes, will also participate in the general strike under the cover of GSEE. The PPC strike has caused alternating power cuts in regions throughout the country.

Hospitals, health centers, ambulance service and welfare services will be operating with security (skeleton) staff for emergencies only, as doctors and nursing staff are taking part in the 48-hour strike. ...

Switched off
Darren Gray / The Age / June 29, 2011

Properties across central Victoria are testing out life with no mains electricity to reduce the risk of bushfires sparked by power-line failure.

... Ten Victorian property owners signed up to the ''Remote Area Power Supply'' trial, a program assessing the suitability of alternative power supply systems. The mains power to the properties was turned off, and they were provided with solar panels and a diesel generator. The equipment was installed over the past six months.

One couple has withdrawn from the trial, but nine families are still participating. ...

High electricity demand expected across Texas Tuesday, but reserves anticipated despite watch
By Mike Baird / Scripps Interactive Newspaper Group / June 28, 2011

CORPUS CHRISTI — Electric use Monday reached a record high for June, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, requiring an energy emergency alert to the public and a watch warning, which remains in effect Tuesday. ...

[babystrangeloop]

Russia cuts off electricity supply to Belarus over debt
RIA Novosti / June 29, 2011

Russia cut off electricity supplies to Belarus at midnight on Wednesday until Belarus fully repays its 1.2-billion ruble ($43 million) debt, Russia's electricity export monopoly Inter RAO said.

Greece austerity protests turn violent in Athens as general strike gets out of control
AFP / June 29, 2011

An ongoing strike by electricity company workers kept up rolling blackouts across Greece. Not far from the violent protest, cafes and ice cream vendors popular with tourists used portable generators to keep the power on.

[babystrangeloop]

Tokyo Power Demand Reaches Highest Since Quake on Heat Wave
By Shigeru Sato / Bloomberg / June 29, 2011

Electricity demand in Tokyo and surrounding areas was the most today since the March 11 disaster reduced capacity by crippling the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant, as temperatures hit a high for this year.

Power demand rose to 45,700 megawatts at 2 p.m., equivalent to 93 percent of Tokyo Electric Power Co.’s supply, spokesman Taichi Okazaki said by telephone. Temperatures in Tokyo’s Otemachi district reached a high for this year of 35.1 degrees Celsius (95 degrees Fahrenheit) as of 1:10 p.m., according to the weather agency.

Tepco and the government would warn the public of possible blackouts if the area’s demand breached 97 percent of the utility’s capacity, according to the company.

[babystrangeloop]

Fasting in times of load shedding
Intezaar Hussain / The Express Tribune / July 30, 2011

I am aware of the pure of heart who sincerely believe that in view of the holy month the authorities will somehow cut the load shedding.

some subtext for those confused:

"load shedding" is a funny foreign term for "rolling blackouts"

"fasting" is like a fad diet, sort of

"holy" is a brand or trademark of the church

"pure of heart" is another way of saying "sheeple"

"authorities" are the ones who have something you do not have and you want

[zoidberg]

This is ridiculous. Power outages happen all the time everywhere. Consumption in the US has been dropping like a stone and it hasnt turned into mad max yet. Things might get worse later, but thats not guaranteed. That graph is posted as truth. Yet when I started reading about PO in 2005, I figured by 2011 we'd be in starvation mode. Hell people are still getting fatter. Face it. We''re just going to have to work all our lives and save for retirement. Oil Coal and natural gas are going to be powering the zombies and sheeples and whoever else you think just doesnt "get it" long after we're all dead. Even if peak oil came and went, the downhill part will take decades to play out. By then natural gas and coal will substitute just fine until arctic & deepwater oil comes and goes and we're all either farmers or walking in high density cities, or important enough to have an electric car, of which millions will be driving around by then.

[careinke]

This is ridiculous. Power outages happen all the time everywhere. Consumption in the US has been dropping like a stone and it hasnt turned into mad max yet. Things might get worse later, but thats not guaranteed. That graph is posted as truth. Yet when I started reading about PO in 2005, I figured by 2011 we'd be in starvation mode. Hell people are still getting fatter. Face it. We''re just going to have to work all our lives and save for retirement. Oil Coal and natural gas are going to be powering the zombies and sheeples and whoever else you think just doesnt "get it" long after we're all dead. Even if peak oil came and went, the downhill part will take decades to play out. By then natural gas and coal will substitute just fine until arctic & deepwater oil comes and goes and we're all either farmers or walking in high density cities, or important enough to have an electric car, of which millions will be driving around by then.

I sure hope you are right. If not, I guess there are always those skittle pooping unicorns.